NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 15th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Utah Jazz at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.5 | Implied Team Total | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Thabo Sefolosha | Derrick Favors | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 28 | 8 | 19 | 2 | 15 | DvP | 5 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 5 | |
| DRPM | -0.57 | -0.62 | -0.93 | -0.34 | 1.28 | DRPM | -0.36 | -0.32 | 1.84 | 1.45 | 1.95 | |
Utah Jazz
We have a monster slate on tap tonight, so we’ll try to save time on a few of the games that don’t have as much fantasy appeal. We start with the Jazz and Knicks, who are both ranked in the bottom half in pace of play and in the top half in points allowed per game. The total is only set at 203 points, which is one of the lowest on the schedule. The Jazz have an implied total of only 99.5 points, which is the second lowest of the 22 teams in action.
If we run the CourtIQ tool with Rudy Gobert off the floor, we can see that Donovan Mitchell and Rodney Hood are the biggest beneficiaries. Mitchell is coming off of a huge game against the Wolves and he leads all of the Jazz starters with a true usage of 26%. He does feel a bit overpriced, but we talked about this earlier in the season with Ben Simmons. Mitchell’s price is likely going to get more expensive moving forward, so take advantage of it while you still can. Hood may not be a starter in name, but he should see minutes in the upper-20s in a favorable matchup against the Knicks. He’s a sneaky tournament play in a slate where he should have sub-10% ownership.
Ricky Rubio has been quiet lately and while the matchup is enticing, there are too many point guards in this slate for me to click his name. The Jazz started Jonas Jerebko at the four the other night and that could be the case again tonight. Either way, look for Jerebko and Thabo Sefolosha to both see minutes in the mid-20s. Derrick Favors will be asked to play more minutes and be more involved offensively with Gobert out. While I will be keeping my on eye on Favors moving forward, he doesn’t stand out as a great play in tonight’s 11-game slate.
Notable Injuries
Rudy Gobert (Out)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 98.3 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (21 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 (12 of 22)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.5 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $7,000 | $6,700 | $13,600 | 28.7 | -9.1 | 30.9 | -3.9 | 0.93 | 22.9% | 51.4% | 28 | -0.57 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $6,200 | $6,100 | $10,900 | 25.1 | 9.1 | 26.7 | 5.3 | 0.94 | 25.7% | 47.6% | 8 | -0.62 |
| Joe Ingles | $5,600 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 24.0 | -3.7 | 29.8 | 0.2 | 0.81 | 16.6% | 54.8% | 19 | -0.93 |
| Thabo Sefolosha | $4,400 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 18.4 | 0.7 | 21.7 | 1.7 | 0.85 | 13.6% | 60.3% | 2 | -0.34 |
| Derrick Favors | $6,000 | $5,600 | $11,500 | 22.3 | 5.9 | 27.1 | 2.0 | 0.82 | 16.5% | 56.1% | 15 | 1.28 |
| Jonas Jerebko | $3,200 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 0.75 | 11.2% | 64.7% | N/A | N/A |
| Rodney Hood | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 21.1 | 3.1 | 27.4 | 1.2 | 0.77 | 23.6% | 53.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Donovan Mitchell
Secondary Plays – Rodney Hood (GPP), Jonas Jerebko, Thabo Sefolosha
New York Knicks
Even though the Jazz are playing without their defensive anchor, they aren’t going to change their philosophy. They will continue to slow the pace of the game down and to play stout defense. The Knicks come into tonight’s game with an implied total of 103.5 points, which is the eighth lowest of the slate and 2.5 points below their season average. As I often mention, we can afford to be picky in large slates. We don’t have to take players from every single game.
I have very little interest in the Knicks tonight. Jarrett Jack is being outplayed by Frank Ntilikina and neither is seeing enough minutes to warrant consideration in such a big slate. Tim Hardaway has flashed some great upside, but this is a pace-down spot against an elite defense. The best way to attack the Jazz moving forward is in the frontcourt. Without Rudy Gobert, they are undersized down low. With that said, Kristaps Porzingis would have more appeal in a smaller slate.
Notable Injuries
Ron Baker (Doubtful)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (15 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.5 (17 of 22)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 17.0 | -5.7 | 25.4 | -0.9 | 0.67 | 15.4% | 41.6% | 5 | -0.36 |
| Courtney Lee | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 22.5 | 3.7 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 0.70 | 14.6% | 57.2% | 10 | -0.32 |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,600 | $6,400 | $13,800 | 28.9 | 6.9 | 33.9 | 1.2 | 0.85 | 22.0% | 52.4% | 11 | 1.84 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,300 | $8,900 | $18,500 | 45.7 | -2.8 | 32.6 | -2.2 | 1.40 | 31.8% | 59.8% | 5 | 1.45 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,900 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 30.4 | 1.5 | 25.5 | 0.3 | 1.19 | 18.5% | 66.0% | 5 | 1.95 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 19.8 | -4.3 | 15.9 | -2.3 | 1.24 | 16.4% | 59.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,600 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 18.2 | 6.3 | 20.6 | 2.9 | 0.88 | 15.7% | 40.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Washington Wizards at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.0 | Vegas Spread | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Justise Winslow | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 13 | DvP | 16 | 5 | 29 | 10 | 2 | |
| DRPM | -1.56 | -0.59 | 1.80 | 0.19 | 2.40 | DRPM | -0.80 | -0.56 | 1.67 | 1.34 | 0.83 | |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are looking for their fourth win in a row tonight against the Heat. This isn’t exactly an ideal matchup for fantasy production, as Miami is ranked 17th in pace of play and ninth in points allowed per game. If you only look at the games where Hassan Whiteside was active, the Heat would be even better defensively than their season averages. It makes sense that the Wizards’ implied total is seven points below their average on the season. They currently have the third worst projected point differential of the slate.
The Heat are ranked 17th or better in fantasy points allowed to every position on the floor. Their worst individual defender is Goran Dragic, but they have an elite rim protector and a good team defense to help hide his deficiency. This doesn’t exactly bode well for John Wall, who is one of the best point guards in basketball at attacking the rim. At similar price points, I would rather pay a little more for Russell Westbrook or save a few dollars on Damian Lillard. Bradley Beal relies on scoring for a large part of his fantasy production, which downgrades his fantasy appeal in difficult matchups.
Otto Porter production has come way down since Markieff Morris returned to the starting lineup. Porter was flourishing at the four and has been quiet over the last couple of weeks. Until his price come down, he can be avoided in all formats. The Wizards continue to say that Morris will play 26-28 minutes, yet he has only played 20 in back-to-back games. Surprisingly, my favorite play from Washington is Marcin Gortat. He has not played well recently, but has averaged 31 minutes and 29 fantasy points in his last four games against Whiteside.
Notable Injuries
None
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 111.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (12 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -6.7 (20 of 22)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.9 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,500 | $8,700 | $16,900 | 43.7 | -2.6 | 33.8 | -6.1 | 1.29 | 28.5% | 54.5% | 9 | -1.56 |
| Bradley Beal | $7,500 | $7,200 | $13,100 | 36.8 | -2.4 | 34.1 | -1.3 | 1.08 | 25.5% | 60.0% | 7 | -0.59 |
| Otto Porter | $6,700 | $6,200 | $12,100 | 34.4 | -5.5 | 32.6 | -2.6 | 1.06 | 16.5% | 67.0% | 14 | 1.80 |
| Markieff Morris | $5,100 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 17.6 | 3.6 | 19.5 | -0.3 | 0.90 | 19.7% | 54.3% | 17 | 0.19 |
| Marcin Gortat | $5,100 | $5,400 | $10,600 | 25.5 | -6.2 | 30.3 | -1.5 | 0.84 | 13.2% | 62.3% | 13 | 2.40 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,600 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 23.9 | 1.3 | 29.7 | -6.6 | 0.81 | 14.2% | 57.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – John Wall, Marcin Gortat
Miami Heat
The Heat have been a difficult team to predict on a nightly basis. They have a deep rotation and a lot of guards that all split usage while on the floor together. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked 17th in points allowed per game and 13th in defensive efficiency. Miami is listed as a one-point favorite with an implied total of 105.8 points. They currently have the fourth best projected point differential (+3.8) of the slate.
Goran Dragic grades out as a nice value play at point guard. The Wizards are mediocre against point guards (16th) and John Wall is a below-average defender (-0.80). The issue that I always have with Dragic is that he loses usage to both Dion Waiters and Tyler Johnson. I slightly prefer the likes of Kemba Walker and Dennis Schroder over Dragic, even though this does look like a good spot for him to succeed.
One of my favorite tournament plays of the slate is Hassan Whiteside. If you pull up his game log, you will see the volatility, but we generally pinpoint the games where he is going to play well. When he’s matched up against a traditional center that doesn’t stray far from the rim, his rebounding and block numbers skyrocket. In his last four games against Marcin Gortat and the Wizards, Whiteside has scored 50, 45, 58, and 52 fantasy points.
Notable Injuries
Okaro White (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 101.9 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 (4 of 22)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.1 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,800 | $6,800 | $13,300 | 32.8 | 1.0 | 34.3 | 1.0 | 0.96 | 24.6% | 56.6% | 16 | -0.80 |
| Dion Waiters | $5,800 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 25.9 | -1.8 | 31.8 | -1.7 | 0.82 | 23.1% | 51.2% | 5 | -0.56 |
| Josh Richardson | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 21.8 | -0.3 | 33.3 | -0.2 | 0.65 | 13.8% | 50.4% | 29 | 1.67 |
| Justise Winslow | $4,400 | $4,000 | $7,300 | 17.6 | 2.7 | 24.2 | 3.1 | 0.73 | 13.7% | 46.1% | 10 | 1.34 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $8,800 | $8,000 | $13,500 | 40.4 | 6.0 | 27.9 | 1.5 | 1.45 | 20.2% | 58.1% | 2 | 0.83 |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,600 | $4,400 | $7,800 | 19.6 | 2.7 | 28.2 | 4.7 | 0.70 | 17.0% | 48.0% | N/A | N/A |
| James Johnson | $6,200 | $6,100 | $11,000 | 29.5 | -7.5 | 28.1 | -2.0 | 1.05 | 18.9% | 61.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic
Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.0 |  | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.8 | Implied Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | George Hill | Garrett Temple | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Zach Randolph | Willie Cauley-Stein | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Luke Babbitt | Dewayne Dedmon | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 30 | 18 | 24 | 25 | DvP | 17 | 12 | 6 | 19 | 30 | |
| DRPM | -2.83 | 0.42 | -0.42 | -0.53 | 0.83 | DRPM | -0.48 | -0.40 | -0.69 | 1.30 | 0.69 | |
Sacramento Kings
We started with three lackluster games, but they get better, I promise. The Kings come into tonight’s game as 4.5-point underdogs against the Hawks with the total for the game set at only 204 points. From a strict matchup standpoint, this is actually a favorable one for Sacramento. On the season, Atlanta is ranked tenth in pace of play, 26th in points allowed per game, and 29th in rebounding differential. The Kings’ implied total of 99.8 points may not seem like much, but it’s actually five points above their season average.
While I like this matchup as a whole for Sacramento, that doesn’t mean that I will be loading up on the Kings’ players in DFS. They are one of the few teams that has decided to play everyone between 22-28 minutes per game. This is extremely frustrating on our end because it increases the volatility of their fantasy production and it lowers their floor and ceiling. There isn’t a single player that I feel confident about in this lineup. Zach Randolph makes the most sense, but he is strictly a FanDuel play and he is only averaging 24 minutes per game.
Notable Injuries
Vince Carter (Questionable)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 94.6 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (20 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 5.2 (1 of 22)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.0 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.9 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $3,800 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 16.6 | 1.3 | 25.7 | -3.9 | 0.65 | 16.8% | 51.3% | 19 | -2.83 |
| Garrett Temple | $3,900 | $3,600 | $9,000 | 17.1 | -1.0 | 24.0 | -1.0 | 0.71 | 14.4% | 57.7% | 30 | 0.42 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 18.4 | -1.3 | 23.4 | -2.1 | 0.79 | 18.0% | 54.8% | 18 | -0.42 |
| Zach Randolph | $5,000 | $5,200 | $11,200 | 23.4 | 0.4 | 24.4 | -0.5 | 0.96 | 23.7% | 50.5% | 24 | -0.53 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $4,300 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 22.4 | -3.0 | 24.1 | -2.6 | 0.93 | 16.3% | 50.9% | 25 | 0.83 |
| De’Aaron Fox | $5,200 | $5,100 | $10,900 | 23.4 | -3.5 | 26.7 | 0.1 | 0.87 | 24.8% | 44.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Buddy Hield | $4,600 | $5,100 | $10,600 | 23.0 | 3.4 | 24.2 | 0.3 | 0.95 | 22.5% | 51.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Zach Randolph (FD)
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have lost four games in a row and nine of their last ten. The fact that they are favored tonight goes to show just how bad the Kings are as well. While this will be a pace-down spot for Atlanta, it’s still an exploitable matchup. On the season, Sacramento is ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and dead last in rebounding differential. The Hawks’ implied total of 104.3 points is slightly higher than their season average.
Dennis Schroder has one of the highest true usage rates (which is adjusted for turnovers and potential assists) of any point guard in the league. He hasn’t shot the ball particularly well this season, but is still averaging 34 fantasy points per game. He draws a favorable matchup against the likes of George Hill and De’Aaron Fox, who both have negative DRPM grades this season. Schroder is affordable too, as his price has come down to $7,000 on FanDuel and $6,800 on DraftKings. Dollar for dollar, he’s one of my favorite point guards in the slate.
Ersan Ilyasova is expected to play tonight, which adds another body to the Hawks’ frontcourt. For now, I will be avoiding it like the plague as I don’t see anyone that will come close to playing 30 minutes anytime soon. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince would be on my radar in a smaller slate, but there are some great options at their respective positions tonight. Schroder is really the only player in this entire game that I plan to have exposure to tonight.
Notable Injuries
Mike Muscala (Doubtful)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.6 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (14 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.7 (10 of 22)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.5 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,000 | $6,800 | $12,300 | 34.4 | -6.8 | 32.6 | 0.8 | 1.05 | 29.1% | 51.1% | 17 | -0.48 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,700 | $5,400 | $10,000 | 30.1 | 7.8 | 29.1 | -0.4 | 1.03 | 21.7% | 51.2% | 12 | -0.40 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,700 | $5,100 | $10,600 | 26.1 | 1.2 | 31.5 | 1.8 | 0.83 | 17.7% | 50.8% | 6 | -0.69 |
| Luke Babbitt | $3,300 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 20.7 | 8.9 | 0.62 | 12.6% | 63.1% | 19 | 1.30 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $5,400 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 22.8 | -0.2 | 24.0 | -3.2 | 0.95 | 14.2% | 64.3% | 30 | 0.69 |
| John Collins | $4,800 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.2 | -4.5 | 21.0 | 2.7 | 1.10 | 18.9% | 54.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder
Secondary Plays – None
Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Detroit Pistons | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.0 |  | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.3 | Implied Team Total | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Stanley Johnson | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Khris Middleton | Tony Snell | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 21 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 19 | DvP | 4 | 11 | 24 | 7 | 9 | |
| DRPM | -1.09 | -1.13 | -1.12 | 0.71 | 1.29 | DRPM | -0.70 | -0.96 | 0.92 | -1.37 | 2.43 | |
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons are playing some great basketball this season. They have won five games in a row and have the second best record in the Eastern Conference. They will look to keep their streak alive tonight against the Bucks in yet another game with a low total (207 points). On paper, this looks like a decent matchup, but Milwaukee has been tough at home this season. Detroit comes into the game with an implied total of only 101.3 points, which is five points below their season average.
Reggie Jackson continues to play well for Detroit, but he doesn’t have the minute upside that a lot of point guards do. He is averaging 28.7 minutes per game on the season and rarely sees more than 32 in any single game. He grades out as a decent play, but he is a fairly easy fade on the road in a game where Detroit has such a low implied total. Avery Bradley is also an easy fade now that Stanley Johnson is back in the starting lineup. It doesn’t help that the Bucks are ranked first against shooting guards and seventh against small forwards.
With Jon Leuer expected back, Tobias Harris may see his playing time come down a little moving forward. It’s a good time to sell high. The only play that I’m interested in from Detroit is Andre Drummond, who is averaging 1.29 FP/min this season. When he stays out of foul trouble, Stan Van Gundy has shown that he doesn’t mind playing Drummond minutes in the mid to upper-30s. He should be able to dominate a Bucks’ frontcourt that is ranked 23rd in rebounding differential.
Notable Injuries
Jon Leuer (Probable)
Stanley Johnson (Probable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 106.5 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (17 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 (19 of 22)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $6,300 | $6,100 | $11,600 | 30.8 | -0.8 | 28.7 | -0.3 | 1.07 | 26.7% | 55.3% | 21 | -1.09 |
| Avery Bradley | $6,100 | $5,900 | $11,900 | 25.8 | 0.9 | 31.4 | -0.2 | 0.82 | 22.0% | 53.6% | 1 | -1.13 |
| Stanley Johnson | $5,200 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 18.4 | 30.8 | 0.60 | 12.6% | 51.1% | 7 | -1.12 | ||
| Tobias Harris | $7,000 | $6,700 | $12,300 | 30.0 | 1.7 | 33.3 | 0.8 | 0.90 | 21.8% | 60.1% | 20 | 0.71 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,400 | $9,000 | $16,500 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 33.4 | 2.3 | 1.29 | 16.7% | 56.3% | 19 | 1.29 |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (Cash), Reggie Jackson
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have won three games in a row and it didn’t take long for Eric Bledsoe to get acclimated to his new surroundings. They are going to be a fun team to watch, especially when they get Jabari Parker back in a couple of months. Tonight’s matchup against the Pistons doesn’t look great on paper. Detroit is ranked 23rd in pace of play and seventh in points allowed per game. Their implied total of 105.8 points seems a bit high on the surface, but it helps that they are playing this game in Milwaukee.
The Pistons aren’t exactly a defense that I like to target players against. With Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon both averaging under 30 minutes per game, they are easy fades in a full slate. Khris Middleton could draw the defense of Avery Bradley, but I’m at least somewhat intrigued by his $6,500 price point on DraftKings. Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored at least 56 fantasy points in each of his last four games. While the matchup isn’t ideal, he deserves to be considered one of the top overall plays on the board tonight. John Henson is an interesting tournament play, especially on DraftKings ($4,700). He is averaging 31 minutes in his last three games and he had a nice outing against the Pistons earlier this season, scoring 27 fantasy points in 26 minutes of action.
Notable Injuries
Mirza Teletovic (Out)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (11 of 22)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $6,400 | $6,300 | $14,500 | 25.6 | -0.1 | 28.2 | 0.6 | 0.91 | 25.6% | 48.4% | 4 | -0.70 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,000 | $6,500 | $13,300 | 33.7 | -9.3 | 37.2 | 1.0 | 0.90 | 22.6% | 50.7% | 11 | -0.96 |
| Tony Snell | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 17.1 | -4.1 | 32.2 | -4.8 | 0.53 | 9.2% | 68.6% | 24 | 0.92 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $12,200 | $11,300 | $21,200 | 57.5 | 2.5 | 37.8 | 2.1 | 1.52 | 30.0% | 63.6% | 7 | -1.37 |
| John Henson | $5,700 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 21.7 | 9.5 | 22.0 | 5.9 | 0.98 | 11.5% | 57.5% | 9 | 2.43 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,700 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 26.8 | -4.7 | 32.4 | -3.7 | 0.83 | 18.8% | 60.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton (DK), John Henson (DK)
Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.0 |  | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.5 | Vegas Spread | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.8 | Implied Team Total | 111.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Jrue Holiday | Rajon Rondo | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 2 | 23 | 27 | 21 | 7 | DvP | 15 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 12 | |
| DRPM | 0.56 | N/A | 0.62 | 0.65 | 3.13 | DRPM | -0.02 | -2.57 | 0.73 | 0.01 | 0.50 | |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games, after taking out the Rockets and “taking a shot at James Harden on Twitter”:https://twitter.com/Raptors/status/930640112496427009. While we don’t love targeting these situations, it’s hard not to like the matchup against the Pelicans. On the season, New Orleans is ranked seventh in pace of play and 20th in points allowed per game. The Raptors have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the fifth highest mark of the 22 teams in action tonight.
Kyle Lowry had one of his best games of the season last night. While his production as a whole is still down, he is starting to turn it around, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in five of his last six games. While I’m not going to tell you to fade Lowry, there are better options at his price point. Jrue Holiday is a very good on-ball defender. Once again, I would rather play DeMar DeRozan over Lowry. DeRozan has a much higher usage rate, he is averaging seven more fantasy points per game, and the two are similarly priced. In their meeting in Toronto last week, DeRozan scored 48 fantasy points against the Pelicans in 36 minutes.
Everyone will have their eye on the availability of Norman Powell tonight. If he is ruled out again, OG Anunboy becomes close to a must play in cash games. He is priced close to the bare minimum and he would see 28-30 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Pelicans. C.J. Miles would also see a big boost off the bench. I played both last night against the Rockets and would go right back to the well tonight. Of the two, I prefer Anunboy, who doesn’t rely on scoring for his fantasy production as much as Miles does.
Serge Ibaka burned a lot of bridges last night and a matchup against Anthony Davis is going to scare people off, but I see this as a great buy low opportunity. He had his best game of the season against the Pelicans last week and will be asked to play 30+ minutes if he stays out of foul trouble. Jonas Valanciunas is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board tonight and we might find him at sub-10% ownership. In his last three meetings against DeMarcus Cousins, he has averaged 33 minutes and 39 fantasy points per game. The Raptors can’t afford to play small against the Pelicans, so don’t be surprised to see big Val play around 30 minutes in this one.
Notable Injuries
Norman Powell (Doubtful)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 108.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (5 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (15 of 22)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,300 | $7,300 | $14,200 | 29.4 | 2.5 | 31.1 | 1.5 | 0.94 | 20.0% | 54.9% | 2 | 0.56 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $7,700 | $7,600 | $13,700 | 36.5 | 1.1 | 34.6 | 1.3 | 1.05 | 28.7% | 56.4% | 23 | N/A |
| OG Anunoby | $3,200 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 13.4 | 1.2 | 16.9 | -0.9 | 0.79 | 14.0% | 53.5% | 27 | 0.62 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,300 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 23.8 | 3.2 | 27.2 | 2.7 | 0.88 | 15.9% | 63.8% | 21 | 0.65 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,300 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 21.7 | 1.0 | 21.1 | 2.2 | 1.03 | 16.1% | 64.4% | 7 | 3.13 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,200 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 13.4 | 1.2 | 16.9 | -0.9 | 0.79 | 14.0% | 53.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – OG Anunboy, C.J. Miles (GPP), Serge Ibaka (GPP), Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)
Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, C.J. Miles (Cash), Serge Ibaka (Cash), Jonas Valanciunas (Cash)
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have won seven of their last ten games and are finally starting to get healthy. Rajon Rondo is only expected to play 14-16 minutes tonight, but it sounds like he is going to start next to Jrue Holiday. E’Twaun Moore will head to the bench and man the second unit with Jameer Nelson. New Orleans draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Raptors, but they do catch them at the right time. Toronto is playing their second road game in as many nights. The Pelicans have an implied total of 111.3 points, which is the second highest of the slate.
Jrue Holiday will get talked up today, after scoring 52 fantasy points against the Raptors in their last meeting. He’s a complete fade for me tonight, as he’s only scored more than 31 fantasy points one time in his last five games. We know that this offense will continue to flow through Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins and we could see Rondo cut into Holiday’s ball-handling duties. For now, there are only two players that we need to worry about on New Orleans.
Davis and Cousins are both averaging minutes in the upper-30s, they both have elite usage rates, and they both bring a high floor when it comes to peripheral stats. It’s hard to argue with either player tonight, especially given the fact that the Pelicans’ implied total is four points higher than their season average. I see both Davis and Cousins as elite plays at their respective positions. If I had to choose one, I would side with Davis because he is slightly cheaper and we don’t have to worry about foul trouble.
Notable Injuries
Alexis Ajinca (Out)
Tony Allen (Questionable)
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (2 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 (4 of 22)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday | $7,000 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 31.2 | 3.7 | 37.6 | 2.5 | 0.83 | 18.6% | 51.3% | 15 | -0.02 |
| Rajon Rondo | $3,100 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 0.82 | 16.0% | 100.0% | 19 | -2.57 |
| Dante Cunningham | $3,300 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 25.1 | -1.7 | 0.54 | 9.7% | 43.8% | 1 | 0.73 |
| Anthony Davis | $11,300 | $10,500 | $18,700 | 53.6 | -5.0 | 37.2 | 1.2 | 1.44 | 23.0% | 65.0% | 18 | 0.01 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $11,900 | $11,100 | $19,800 | 57.9 | -6.6 | 38.0 | -0.9 | 1.52 | 28.7% | 58.9% | 12 | 0.50 |
| Jameer Nelson | $4,000 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 17.9 | -4.6 | 27.0 | -0.9 | 0.66 | 13.4% | 54.1% | N/A | N/A |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,700 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 21.3 | 10.0 | 31.5 | 0.5 | 0.68 | 14.6% | 58.4% | N/A | N/A |