NBA Preseason: Wednesday, October 5th
Let’s begin with some sad news. Russell Westbrook is expected to play today but is not available for DFS purposes. With Durant out of town, the only person that can even be considered on his level for the 2016-2017 season will be James Harden. How crazy is it that they were all on the same team at one point? You can argue that Westbrook will go absolutely nuts this season but as we just saw last night, Harden will have the ball in his hands just as much if not more than Westbrook. Victor Oladipo is a really good player on the wing, something Harden does not have on his side.
Another thing to take in from last night is your process. Why did you make the plays that you did? Don’t be results oriented, be process oriented. We’ve had two “full” slates and I believe it’s important to review those just as much as your research for tonight. I know it’s only preseason but try to lay a good foundation for your research habits now. With so much content available on the web, it’s important to take the time to have a why behind your decisions. Try to go back and make notes of things that stood out to you so that when that team plays again you’ll have your own thoughts to reflect on. It’s so easy to get caught up with all the noise and forget things in the heat of the moment. Also, (note to self) don’t be a Tinkering Tom, trust your gut.
I know the intro was not exactly on topic but I feel it’s important to keep these things in mind. I will update the minutes and injury situations as I come across them but this 3-game slate is far from ideal. I’ll continue using the format of Green, Yellow, and Red. Green is a strong play and based on all the questions people were having on GrindersLive last night about cash, I would consider them solid cash games plays or high ceiling GPP plays. I’m reserving the Yellow for players that are more or less just GPP options. Players in the Yellow section can have as much upside as the players in Green but just likely have a lower floor. Red is for guys that have been ruled out. I’m not going to spend time going over every single player so if you have something I missed feel free to leave it in the comments section or hit me on twitter C_Hira24.
Orlando at Cleveland
Orlando
Actual Starters: D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier, Jeff Green, Bismack Biyombo, Nikola Vucevic
Green: Nikola Vucevic
Yellow: Jeff Green, Mario Hezonja
Red: Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka
Update: Jeff Green is starting at SF instead of Mario Hezonja. He has a tough matchup to start against LeBron. GPP option only. Mario Hezonja could play well against the reserves and deserves consideration because he is a SF on FanDuel. I moved off of Evan Fournier due to the fact Iman Shumpert will likely match his minutes.
Analysis: Elfrid Payton is dealing with a sore hip is likely to miss another game. Aaron Gordon (ankle) was seen running up and down the FedEx Forum on Monday so there is a chance he’s healthy enough to play tonight. I’ll move Gordon to Yellow if he does end up playing. My only concern is that he’ll be dealing with LeBron James early on and could be restricted to 15 minutes. If Gordon ends up playing, expect Mario Hezonja to go back to the bench. Hezonja is a good shooter but struggled on Monday and I’ll be taking a wait and see approach on him. Frank Vogel, now with the Magic, ended up playing 16 players on Monday night. With Evan Fournier playing the most at 23:11. Fournier came out on fire and was 7 for 9 in his limited minutes. I like him again tonight to lead the Magic after they paid him to be their franchise cornerstone in the offseason. Vucevic logged 22:36 and should be capped around there again tonight. He took the most shot attempts on the team, almost had a double-double and dropped 5 dimes. Pretty solid but my only concern is that the lack of minutes are capping his ceiling. Jeff Green was the first big off the bench with Biyombo starting but he struggled in his Magic debut. Let’s see if Vogel switches it up and starts Green to get him going early and uses Biyombo off the bench tonight. I’m not a huge fan of Biyombo unless he is getting over 28 minutes because his game revolves around hustle but he did pick up 10 rebounds in 23 minutes on Monday.
Cleveland
Actual Starters DeAndre Liggins, Iman Shumpert, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Chris Andersen
Green: Jordan McRae, Kay Felder
Yellow: Toney Douglas, Richard Jefferson, Channing Frye
Red: Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson
Update: DeAndre Liggins is starting at PG tonight for the Cavaliers. Liggins is 6-6 and was known for his defense in his prior stops in ORL, OKC, & MIA.
Update #2: LeBron James only expected to play about 12-13 minutes. I’m not playing him at all.
Update #3: Tristan Thompson will not play tonight. Start Nikola Vucevic at C on your teams.
Update #4: Birdman is expected to start at C.
Analysis: Tyronn Lue has already ruled out Kyrie Irving from this game but has been REALLY quiet about who is going to play. I’m leaning towards Jordan McRae because he’s familiar with the team and they just signed Toney Douglas a few days ago and have rookie Kay Felder as their only other true PG. Hopefully, we get some more information before lock but I’m high on McRae. He played really well in Summer League, yes I know I just said Summer League. Isn’t preseason a glorified Summer League game anyways? I think so. He’s a minimum priced player on a 3-game slate that could see over 20 minutes. Are the Champs really wasting time defending their title in preseason? I doubt it and expect McRae to get 20+ minutes tonight with J.R. Smith still not with the team. I want to move McRae to Green but he does carry risk, therefore is only a GPP option until we can figure out how the minutes will be distributed. For that same reason, I’m concerned about LeBron James. I think the name power will draw immense ownership after James Harden paid off in an overly chalky spot last night. LeBron can ball in limited minutes, I just don’t see 40 FPs upside here. I think Gordon Hayward against the Suns has a similar ceiling with a much lower ownership and price. The reason I have him in the Green spot is because of the fact he’s LeBron James and is a solid cash game option. Kevin Love and Channing Frye are interchangeable in this game. The Cavs could use this game to get Love’s confidence back after an abysmal Finals or they can have Frye just chuck a bunch of threes aginst the reserves. Richard Jefferson is old but he also the main man behind James. They can use Mike Dunleavy in that spot now but both players are risky until we have some clarity on the minutes.
Utah at Phoenix
Utah
Actual Starters: George Hill, Dante Exum), Gordon Hayward, Boris Diaw, Rudy Gobert
Green: Gordon Hayward, Trey Lyles, Dante Exum
Yellow: George Hill, Rudy Gobert
Red: Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors
Update: Rodney Hood has been ruled out due a sprained left hand and Derrick Favors is out with left knee soreness. I loved Trey Lyles before this happened and consider him a lock tonight. Dante Exum is expected to start for Hood. His jumper is a work in progress but could easily see over 24 minutes, giving us a high enough floor at his near min salary. I also like this matchup for Devin Booker now.
Update #2: Boris Diaw will be starting in place of Derrick Favors. I still like Trey Lyles and hope that him coming off the bench will keep his ownership levels down. Dante Exum should see 28 minutes tonight at both guard positions.
Analysis: The Jazz have not ruled anyone out at this time so I think they continue to work their starters into regular season form. Gordon Hayward did all of his damage (17 points) in the first half of Monday’s game and only played 4 minutes in the second half. Hayward led the team in scoring but like I mentioned earlier, he has a similar ceiling to James due to the minutes restriction. Just go ahead and scroll down the list of available SFs and tell me Hayward doesn’t entice you either. If the Suns start “big man” Jared Dudley again at PF, Derrick Favors will have a field day. Favors led the team in minutes and tied for the lead in shot attempts at 9. He was one rebound away from a double-double and added 2 blocks and a steal. Favors played until the 2:40 mark of the 3rd quarter and seems safe here. Rudy Gobert also dominated in his minutes 10 points and 13 rebounds but surprisingly did not have any defensive stats. I’m not a fan of using Gobert against Tyson Chandler and Alex Len but he should still play about 22 minutes. My favorite play on this team is Trey Lyles. I want to move him to Green but after he struggled a little bit on Monday, I’ll reserve him for GPPs only. Lyles started to come on at the end of last season when Favors and Gobert got hurt and played a shade under 21 minutes on Monday. If he sees those minutes against the Suns rookies, he should feast. Lyles can stroke the 3 ball and led the bench with 7 shot attempts against the Blazers. For the life of me I can’t figure out Rodney Hood so if you can, please let me know. I think he’ll have a strong season but just always play him the day before he goes off.
Phoenix
Actual Starters: Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, TJ Warren, Marquese Chriss, Alex Len
Green: Devin Booker
Yellow: Brandon Knight, Marquese Chriss, Archie Goodwin
Red: Jared Dudley, PJ Tucker, Tyson Chandler
Update: Jared Dudley has been ruled out, no word on who will start in his place at this time.
*Update #2: Tyson Chandler has been ruled out. Marquese Chriss and Alex Len will start in place of Dudley and Chandler.
Analysis: It’ll be tough to recommend anyone against the Jazz again this season but Devin Booker seems like he’s a viable option. Booker had 19 points in 24 minutes on Monday and is going to be phenomenal this year. He’s going to be overly chalky on a 3-game slate and I am slightly concerned about the matchup. I think this might be a game where Brandon Knight proves he a solid 6th man of the year candidate and bullies Dante Exum, Shelvin Mack, or Raul Neto. Those are not players known for their defense and the Suns might need a pick me up after the starters get worked by the Jazz. The only reason I have him in the Yellow section is because he’s splitting the minutes exactly down the middle with Eric Bledsoe. Also, Archie Goodwin, Tyler Ulis, and Leandro Barbosa are getting burn at the guard spots. Marquese Chriss played the most minutes for the Suns on Monday but also had 6 turnovers. He’s their lottery pick from this year and should continue to see a solid amount of minutes. I’m just not sold on his upside against the Jazz but his minutes are too heavy to deny. Dragan Bender also played almost 24 minutes but did not score against the Spurs.
Toronto at Los Angeles Clippers
Toronto
Projected Starters: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, Jonas Valanciunas
Green: N/A
Yellow: Terrence Ross, Jonas Valanciunas, Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell
Red: Jared Sulinger
*Update: Jared Sullinger has been ruled out
Analysis: The Raptors kept Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan under 20 minutes on Monday and I expect that trend to continue. The Raptors want to play late into the season again and see that resting their best guys will give them a shot at that. Jonas Valanciunas dominated the game Nuggets and had 20 points and 9 rebounds. Jared Sullinger and DeMarre Carroll both did not play on Monday and if they sit out again that gives a boost to Valanciunas. If they do play I don’t see Valanciunas being able to put up 20/10. Terrence Ross has been tearing it up in preseason and is a viable option against the Clippers who are playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Is he fired up that he’s been partying with Drake and smashing Amber Rose all summer? I don’t know but I did see some Raptors’ beat writers say he worked hard on his game over the summer. This dude has all the tools and is actually a good player to use in 2k, just remember to hold his release for the free throw. Siakam played well in his first game and played like a rookie in his second. The beat writers have been gushing about him as well. I’m not sure what to do with him. For only $400 more we can have Trey Lyles and I feel much more comfortable with that. Norman Powell has been quietly playing well and 7 points and 7 rebounds in 20 minutes aginst the Nuggets. Not a ton of upside but on a 3-game slate we have to dig a little deeper to differentiate. This game screams DK use only. If the Clippers sit players we may have some hidden gems uncovered.
Los Angeles
Projected Starters: Chris Paul, Raymond Felton, Luc Mbah A Moute, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan
Green: Blake Griffin
Yellow: Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford, Marreese Speights, Raymond Felton
Red: N/A
Update: Raymond Felton is starting in place of JJ Redick
Analysis: Well, that was pretty embarrassing Clippers! Being down to the Warriors by 50+ points in preseason. Yikes! The only good thing to come from that was the fact that CP3 only played about 13 minutes and Blake Griffin played 18 minutes. I think it’s pretty ridiculous that they have back-to-back games in preseason but hey someone has to get used to it right? With that in mind, I’m firing up Griffin if Doc Rivers does not decide to bench all his starters for this game. Rivers was interviewed during the game and said Griffin was the only one out there giving any effort. I like him to come home and try to put someone on a poster. If it’s pudgy Sully, even better. If it’s Mr. 2 years from being 2 years away (Bruno Caboclo), he can get it too. Don’t forget about The Weeknd (Lucas Nogueira) he thinks he can block people. Pretty much on a 3-game slate, I’ll take my chances with Blake Griffin. Austin Rivers also deserves some consideration and is a MUST play if Chris Paul sits out. Jamal Crawford is not going 0-7 again and should cook the Raptors bench, at $4.2K on DraftKings, there’s not much downside. I actually think the poor shooting game was good for him and he’ll have shaken off the rust. Mo Buckets (Marreese Speights) played well in his revenge game and if you’re not paying up at C, is the best option near min price.