NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 13
Welcome to Week 13. Welcome to December. Now that we are beyond Thanksgiving, the season is officially rolling downhill. We will soon be dealing with short playoff slates and snow shoveling – which is downright depressing. It can also cause us to become undisciplined. It happened to me last week.
Coming off of a rough Week 11, I played too much in a landmine-rich Week 12. A natural two-week lull in the season essentially became a three-week rut. It wasn’t because of the holiday or consciously trying to make up for the prior week. I wanted to play more because time is running out on the season.
I had a feeling something like what we’d experience back in school, when everyone already turned in their tests and we’re not close to finishing. Maybe you were a fast test-taker, but if you weren’t you remember the anxious, sickening sensation. It’s also a ridiculous reason to deviate from a carefully considered bankroll strategy, and it cost me.
If you don’t have a weekly budget and play for fun, disregard these words of warning and keep having a blast. However, if you have a regimented bankroll plan you’ve been using all season, resist deviating from it simply because we’re in the home stretch. DFS isn’t going anywhere when this season ends, but going off the bankroll management rails can cause hard-fought gains to quickly disappear.
Good luck in Week 13, everyone …and please DFS responsibly.
QB Andrew Luck – Indianapolis Colts, $8,100
Luck is not on the main slate, and there are plenty of viable quarterbacks to choose from – with Drew Brees chief among them. Yet there is fantasy gold hidden on Monday night. The Colts and Jets project to score the second-most points of the week, and Luck should be lightly owned for his first game after suffering a concussion. Considering New York has the 10th-highest-graded run stopping and allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, we have a decent idea of how the Colts will meet their 25.3-point implied total. The Jets’ fifth-worst-graded pass coverage is another strong hint.
Priced eighth among quarterbacks and sporting a “Q-tag” despite being a near-lock to play, Luck was on his way to a monster Week 11 game before suffering a concussion. He was 12 of 16 for 186 yards and two scores at halftime, and completed three passes the rest of the way. Our third-highest-graded passer has been excellent when kept clean (107.9 passer rating) and has struggled against pressure (71.0). He is the most-pressured quarterback in the league (44.5-percent of dropbacks), but the Jets’ pass rush grades third-worst. Luck also stacks well with T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief due to matchups and the Colts’ concentrated target distribution.
QB Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks, $7,700
If you were aboard the Wilson train last week, just reading his name probably makes you squeamish – let alone the thought of hopping back on. Throw in a $200 price increase and a gaggle of attractive quarterback options – including Colin Kaepernick for only $100 more – and ownership on Seattle’s signal-caller should be palatable. After matching the best three-game passing grade stretch of his career, Wilson promptly earned his worst passing grade since turning pro. He was under pressure on 53.3-percent of his dropbacks in Tampa Bay and produced a ridiculous 9.8 passer rating on those plays.
It was an obviously uncharacteristic performance from a quarterback who still grades fifth-highest at his position and has the third-best passer rating when under pressure. He will be back in Seattle, where he completes passes at a higher rate, throws for more yards per attempt, has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio, and his passing game grade is nearly five times higher. Even though it occurred while running for his life, Wilson’s 80 rushing yards were more than he had in the first 11 weeks combined. Carolina’s 26th-graded pass coverage has them allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Seahawks will score their 25.8-point implied total (seventh-highest) somehow, and it likely will not come from handing off.
RB Spencer Ware – Kansas City Chiefs, $7,400
Going back to the well with Ware is an uncomfortable move, even in tournaments. While he is still running well, he hasn’t surpassed 20 FanDuel points since Week 7. Ware is priced as the sixth-most-expensive running back, and the same as likely more popular options Jordan Howard (versus the 49ers) and Devonta Freeman (at home). Of course it isn’t the only justification necessary to roll Ware out, but if he pops, the brave among us will have a leg up on the vast majority of the field. Andy Reid knows this is a matchup in which the Chiefs will not be able to trade passing-game blows with the league’s best offense. Riding Ware is his best hope.
Atlanta is allowing the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game mainly due to facing the fifth-fewest handoffs. Game scripts have kept their weakest spot hidden, other than when Eagles’ running backs controlled their Week 10 game 5.8-yards-per-carry at a time. While the Chiefs are underdogs, the Falcons are favored by only 3.5 points. They grade 25th in run defense and will be without their second- and fourth-highest-graded run defenders. Atlanta has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs over the last month, while Ware still grades 10th-best at his position and ranks third in Elusive Rating.
RB Carlos Hyde – San Francisco 49ers, $6,700
Hyde is the first in a string of three affordable running backs who should allow for a unique lineup construction. The inclination this week is to pay up for one, or both, of Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Paying down at running back can help differentiate lineups and gives us access to Drew Brees and multiple high-octane wideouts. Hyde should be palatably owned due to well-founded interest in Colin Kaepernick. Playing them together is on the table as well, with Hyde’s recent uptick in passing game involvement and the 49ers’ lack of reliable passing game weapons.
Hyde scored a receiving touchdown and saw his second-highest PFF-charted target total of the season last week (five), with his high coming in Week 5 before he was injured. He has his highest two-game rushing grade of the season over the last two weeks, during which time he ranks fourth-best in Elusive Rating. Although the Bears’ run defense grades fifth-best, their top two run-stopping linebackers are suspended (Jerrell Freeman) and injured (Danny Trevathan). Freeman is not only their highest-graded run-stopping linebacker, he is the league’s second-highest-graded in pass coverage. Priced 13th-highest among running backs, Hyde won’t be in a better spot until 2017.
RB LeGarrette Blount – New England Patriots, $6,600
Blount predictably saw his lowest snap rate of the year in Week 12 (37-percent) against the stout run defense of the Jets. Tom Brady threw 50 passes and Blount took a season-low 11 handoffs (for 67 yards), as New England characteristically went down the path of least resistance. It was only the second time in 11 games that Blount did not score a touchdown or rush for over 100 yards, and the first time since Brady returned from suspension in Week 5. He still ranks sixth in rushing yards and leads the league with 12 touchdowns on the ground.
In a non-conference game against the Rams, with Brady hobbled and without the services of Rob Gronkowski, Bill Belichick may choose to play things close to the vest. Few things are more vanilla, but effective, than pounding Blount against overmatched opponents. The Rams have the 19th-highest-graded run defense and allowed 445 yards and two touchdowns on 76 carries over their last four games (5.9-yard average). They missed an average of 5.7 tackles per game on runs during that time. Blount ranks fifth in forced missed tackles, and with the Patriots wielding a 29-point implied total as a nearly-two-touchdown favorite, Belichick will be backing “The Garrette” out of the garage.
RB Theo Riddick – Detroit Lions, $6,500
Priced similarly to Blount, but with an entirely different profile, Riddick is in play even on a 0.5-PPR site like FanDuel due to expected volume and game script. Costing the 19th-most at his position doesn’t hurt, either, in a week where many lineup builds will skew heavier on expensive running backs. In addition to him recently being quiet, relative to several pre-November games, Riddick has the “Q-tag” next to his name – hopefully muting his ownership rate. Despite practicing on a limited basis, his ankle is fine and he will play a central role in a game with the largest projected total on the slate (53.5 points).
Riddick ranks third in targets and receptions at his position, with the two backs ahead of him having played at least 115 more snaps. As the only pass-catching running back in Detroit’s dink-and-dunk offense — which is more a replacement for their 3.4-yards-per-carry running game than an extension of it — Riddick has the Lions’ most projectable workload. Since returning from injury in Week 8, Riddick has Detroit’s most receptions against blitzes – and New Orleans has increased their blitz rate in each game since Week 8. The Saints allow the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs, the fourth-most receiving yards, and their highest-snap linebackers grade well into the red in pass coverage.
WR Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons, $8,300
Rostering Jones has been unfulfilling at times. Last week was one of those occasions, with Jones gaining only 35 yards on four catches. It was the fifth time this season he’s failed to reach 100 receiving yards. In the four games after his previous down weeks, Jones averaged 9.5 targets, 8.0 receptions, 164 yards, and a he scored a touchdown in each contest. His price is down $400 from last week and the Falcons have the fourth-highest implied total on the slate (26.3 points) – so Jones will not be lightly-owned. Yet, even though he’s fourth-priciest among wideouts, due to the lack of available value he isn’t exactly easy to squeeze in.
Despite his up-and-down season, Jones is still first among 95 qualifying wideouts in yards-per-route-run (3.12). He has the third-most deep targets (25) and fourth-most yards on 20-plus-yard passes (336). Matt Ryan ranks first in deep-ball accuracy percentage and passer rating when throwing downfield. Jones is our second-highest-graded wideout and leads the league in receiving yards. Not that anyone needs reminding, but he’s still really good at football. Jones will face Kansas City’s top cornerback, Marcus Peters, on roughly one-third of his routes. The rest of the time he gets to toy with replacement-level parts in a secondary allowing the most fantasy points per game to wideouts.
WR Brandon Marshall – New York Jets, $7,200
If we play a slate with the Monday night game included, several avenues open up – especially in the passing game. The Jets pass coverage grades 28th-best and the Colts’ grades dead last. The 49-point projected total would tie for the second-highest on the main slate and each team has a several advantageous matchups. Marshall stands out due to projected workload and continued touchdown regression. An argument can also be made for Quincy Enunwa, who is $2,500 cheaper and has hit in three of his last five games, while averaging 92 yards and scoring a touchdown in each.
Marshall scored on Sunday for the first time in six weeks and his 3.2-percent touchdown rate is still, by far, his worst in the last five seasons. Marshall’s average from 2012 through last season was 7.4-percent. The Colts have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns (22) and third-most receiving yards per game (278.7). They have given up the most fantasy points per game to wideouts over the last month, and Marshall had 101 yards and a touchdown against them last season. Even if Vontae Davis shadows Marshall, he has been a liability since injuring his ankle prior to Week 11, grading 98th in pass coverage while allowing 127 yards and three touchdowns (142.8 passer rating against).
WR Jamison Crowder – Washington Redskins, $6,600
Priced as the 21st-most expensive receiver, Crowder helps us afford some big guns, while still offering an attractive floor and ceiling. Washington’s 23.3-point implied total isn’t eye-opening, but when we project how they will get there, several factors point to Crowder. The 2.5-point favorite Cardinals have the sixth-highest-graded run defense and allow 3.7 yards per carry, with the 22nd-most rushing yards surrendered per game. Jordan Reed will not play and Crowder already leads the Redskins in red-zone targets (15) and is second in touchdowns (3). Top-10-graded cornerback Patrick Peterson shadows, but doesn’t often travel into the slot (49 slot coverage snaps). He projects to be glued to DeSean Jackson or simply playing his side.
Operating out of the slot on 75.2-percent of his routes, where his 1.92 yards-per-route-run ranks third-highest, Crowder will see a lot of Tyrann Mathieu. He has been uneven and his coverage grade would rank 78th if he’d played enough snaps to qualify at cornerback. Mathieu has allowed 18 catches on 23 slot targets, for 214 yards and two scores. The touchdowns came via Taylor Gabriel and Jeremy Kerley, so it isn’t hard seeing Crowder getting the best of him. Our 12th-highest-graded wideout since Week 6, Crowder has touchdowns in four of his last six games, with three 100-yard performances during that time.
WR Michael Crabtree – Oakland Raiders, $6,400
After a solid Week 12 showing in which Crabtree collected eight catches on 13 targets for 110 yards, he may garner a little interest – but the crowd will almost always be more drawn toward teammate Amari Cooper. Despite the second-year wideout disappointing in a heavily-owned spot with 22 yards on four catches, he should again be more popular than Crabtree. Oakland will play their fourth home game in a row and have the slate’s third-highest implied total (26.3 points). Most of those points project to come via the pass due to the Bills increasingly pass-funnel-like defense, and Derek Carr’s dislocated finger necessitating more shotgun formations (hat-tip, Evan Silva).
Buffalo has our ninth-highest-graded run defense, a banged-up secondary, and their pass coverage grades 22nd-best. Their 10th-highest-graded pass rush has helped, but with the Raiders pass blocking ranking fourth and Carr feeling pressure on the 32nd-highest rate of dropbacks (24.4-percent), the Bills corners will be left hanging. Buffalo’s nominal top cornerback Stephon Gilmore will see more of Cooper, and Crabtree gets the scraps left over by Ronald Darby’s injury. Corey White, who was best known as a flammable Saints cover man in 2014, will see Crabtree on more than half of his routes. He stepped in for Darby last week and earned the 96th-best grade out of 101 cornerbacks.
TE Jimmy Graham – Seattle Seahawks, $6,400
It is tough to quit the Seahawks’ passing game, especially at home. Graham has averaged 5.8 catches, 84.5 yards, and a touchdown per game on 7.8 targets during his last four contests in Seattle (14.4 FanDuel points). With Jordan Reed and Rob Gronkowski out of the picture, Graham arguably has the highest ceiling of any tight end. He ranks behind only the two injured studs and Greg Olsen in passing-game grading at his position, and Graham’s five receiving touchdowns trail only Delanie Walker’s six among tight ends. He also saw his price drop by $500 from last week, which is nice.
Graham was still healthy the first time the Seahawks faced the Panthers last season, and he smoked them for eight catches and 140 yards on 10 targets. That was when Carolina allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. This season, they are giving up the fourth-most points on the seventh-most targets. Only the Lions are allowing more touchdowns to the position and the Panthers will again be without Luke Kuechly – our highest-graded inside linebacker (fifth-highest in coverage). Priced $100 above Travis Kelce and $200 above Olsen, Graham should be palatably owned for his upside.
TE Ladarius Green – Pittsburgh Steelers, $4,500
It was only a matter of time until one of the biggest fantasy teases in recent memory found his way into this space. They warned us about this at the Ladarius truther meetings. Yet, while it may feel thin to roster a player who has run a total of 30 routes in three games and played only 26-percent of snaps last week, Green’s apparent role within Pittsburgh’s offense and the game’s snaps pace projection mitigates those concerns. Plus, it’s not like we are using him in cash games, despite Green costing the minimum.
The Giants up-tempo approach – league-leading 62-percent no-huddle rate — has led to them allowing the second-most plays per game (69.9) and facing the second-most pass attempts on average (41.5). Tight ends have been targeted 8.6 times per game against them (fourth-most), and over the last four weeks, New York has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Their stiff perimeter coverage draws a bulls-eye on their relatively soft tight end defense. The Steelers have the third-highest implied total on the slate (27.8 points), and Green’s profile in a prolific offense is rising just in time for a juicy matchup.