NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 3
Last week was a struggle, so hopefully everyone was employing proper bankroll management after a hot Week 1. While the 17-week-long season often feels like a sprint, and in many ways it is, there will undoubtedly be several peaks and valleys along the way. Maintaining a measured, methodical, marathon-like pace is invaluable.
While it’s a lot more fun to say, “Don’t get too high” after a monster week – don’t do anything drastic to make up Week 2 losses. Assuming you suffered them. If you somehow didn’t, then don’t get too high!
On with the FanDuel tournament picks.
QB Tom Brady – New England Patriots, $8,700 (+$400 from Week 2)
Yes, Brady will be a popular play. But fears over a LeGarrette Blount-led game plan, in addition to a few attractive high-end Week 3 quarterback plays, should dent the pervasive “revenge tour” narrative enough that his ownership percentage isn’t completely out of hand. Or, he really is out to flay every opponent like it’s 2007, winds up paying off his cost in spades, and you have a leg up on most of the field.
As for worries over New England zagging all over the Jaguars when we wanted them to zig, look at the Patriots offensive line. They have two veteran tackles and a mess of uncertainty in the middle. That includes three rookies and an undrafted second-year swing-guard, all four of whom sport solidly negative run blocking grades. Brady is getting rid of the ball in a league-quickest 2.03 seconds to protect the young line.
Through two games, the Jaguars have allowed 2.7 yards per carry to running backs. Their pass rush grades positively, and coverage grades negatively. If the Patriots eventually may do some second-half pounding, but the Jaguars profile similarly to the Bills. Expect New England to again go fast-paced (third-quickest Week 2 seconds-per-snap), no-huddle (47.7 percent in Week 2) blitzkrieg — long before they bring on the Blount.
QB Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers, $7,900 (+$200)
Newton is essentially a one man show, but he’s worth the price of admission, and has been running for a long time. Last week he was the third-highest scoring quarterback, helped by 10 rushing attempts for 76 yards and a touchdown. In fact, over the last 10 games of the 2014 regular season, Newton averaged 8.9 rushes – which were more than he averaged during his first two years in the league (7.9).
Over the final five weeks of 2014, not including when he sat out Week 15 after a car wreck, Newton was fantasy’s top quarterback. Kelvin Benjamin was the 59th-best wideout, Greg Olsen wasn’t a top-12 tight end, and nobody caught more than a single touchdown over that span. Newton averaged nearly 9.8 rushing attempts, before running 18 times in two playoff games. His current supporting cast is a disaster, and it barely matters.
The Saints allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks last year, and have given up the ninth-most so far in 2015. Their pass rush ranks 20th (-0.2), and their coverage is second worst (-15.4). It is possible that he pays his cost entirely through the air against a weak opponent. But even if his rag-tag pass catchers continue to drop balls (six so far, tied for fourth-highest), Newton has proven he won’t sit idly by.
RB Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings, $8,900 (-$100)
Peterson offers the best shot at getting a palatable ownership level on one of the top four running backs. He’s the most expensive, so it’s easy to see folks taking the $100-$200 discount on Le’Veon Bell, Marshawn Lynch, or Jamaal Charles. Unless you’re going really cheap at running back, one of those four will be on your roster, as there isn’t a lot to get excited in the next couple of price tiers.
Besides Lynch, who is clearly an elite play, Peterson has the best Week 3 matchup of any of the Big Four. The Chargers are allowing the sixth-most rushing and the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs, and their run defense grade ranks 29th (-10.4). Ricardo Mathews’ and Kendall Reyes’ run-stopping grades rank 42nd and 44th, respectively, out of 46 qualifying 3-4 defensive ends. Reyes ranked 46th last year.
Last week, Peterson rolled up 134 rushing yards on 29 carries, added 58 yards on two receptions, and had a touchdown called back. The Vikings offense operated infinitely better with Peterson as its foundation than it did during the opener. Minnesota’s run blocking grade climbed to ninth overall, one spot above where it ended 2014. Expect the home favorites to again feed Peterson, and finally get him into the end zone.
RB Justin Forsett – Baltimore Ravens, $7,200 (-$600)
Forsett has been somewhat disappointing to this point, although his Week 2 rushing grade (+2.9) was light years better than what he posted against Denver in Week 1 (-2.2). An adept pass-catching back, in a scheme that emphasizes it, Forsett is mostly game script agnostic. Still, it helps that the Ravens are a field goal favorite at home against the Bengals. It is a solid spot for a running back whose preseason buzz evaporated.
Lorenzo Taliaferro eating into Forsett’s high-leverage red zone touches is concerning, but probably not this week, as the second-year back is again hurt. Forsett is set up for a heavy workload. With a rag-tag bunch of perimeter weapons, and an opponent that features a pair of top-15-graded coverage cornerbacks, Joe Flacco will need to rely on his backs and tight ends even more than usual.
Forsett should find room against a Bengals defense that’s been up-and-down against the run, showing well against Oakland and poorly against San Diego. However, Cincinnati consistently gives it up in the passing game to running backs. They’re surrendering the second-most receptions, fourth-most receiving yards, and a touchdown catch per game to backs. They were top-five in catches and yards allowed last year as well.
RB Frank Gore – Indianapolis Colts, $7,000 (No Price Change)
This is the spot that Gore supporters, with a wary eye on his first two matchups, were pointing to all offseason. It’s finally here, and there’s more fear than excitement on the Gore Train. The main disappointment is the Colts debacle against the Jets came on Monday night, and Gore’s price didn’t drop another $500. Sure, there are red flags, like the Colts pulling him from the game for stretches, and a light 52.5 snap percentage – but those are cash games worries.
Gore still has 70 percent of Indianapolis’ backfield carries, and is yet to augment it with receptions (just one). His legs looked fresh even against the Jets run defense, and the Titans are a far cry from that, or what the Bills bring to bear. So far, Tennessee allowed four yards per carry to Browns and Buccaneers running backs, and they surrendered the most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs last year.
This game has “get right” written all over it, but most of the attention – and likely DFS ownership – is centered on Andrew Luck and the passing game. While that’s for good reason, and we want shares of that redemption story as well, let’s not lose sight of the Colts veteran free agent signing that does not look like he’s toast. Gore had two brutal matchups to start off. We knew it before Week 1, and should remember it before Week 3.
RB Melvin Gordon – San Diego Chargers, $6,700 (+$200)
We are pivoting off of Woodhead after two weeks, based on a more Gordon-friendly matchup and improving play by the rookie. His snap percentage only rose by two percent (44 to 46) from Week 1 to Week 2, and so did his rushing attempts (14 to 16). His rushing grade leapt from a -0.9 to +0.9, and he handled his only pass blocking opportunity. In fact, his (small sample) pass blocking efficiency (81.3) is better than Woodhead’s (75.0).
The hope was that Gordon would slowly gain comfort, and that appears to be happening. But as last week showed (11 first half carries, five in the second half), he is still vulnerable to negative game script, and Gordon is not a safe cash games option as a road underdog. What he offers is game-breaking potential (he ranks first of 33 running backs in Breakaway Percentage), to go along with tackle-breaking ability (fifth in Elusive Rating).
Gordon will face the 28th-ranked run defense of the Vikings (-8.8), a unit that allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to backs last year (106.1), and has given up the 10th-most this year (103.5). They have not been as generous to running backs with passing game stats. Woodhead is still $300 cheaper, has received ample buzz, and may be more widely-owned this week. It’s time to switch tournament horses.
WR Emmanuel Sanders – Denver Broncos, $8,100 (+$100)
You want to roll with Demaryius Thomas. He’s yet to see a redzone target a year after pacing the NFL with 39 looks, and it’s well-known that Peyton Manning always feeds his guys after quiet spells. It is a smart play, but it’s far from a secret. Sanders is just $300 cheaper than Thomas, despite an identical 24 targets and greater fantasy production. Folks will pay up for Thomas.
Increased no-huddle and shotgun snaps made Manning more comfortable in Week 2, but it’s clear that he is still finding his way in Gary Kubiak’s offense. The no-huddle — on which he was only pressured on 10 percent of snaps, versus 37 percent of huddled plays – was particularly helpful. Denver also was in “11 personnel” on each hurry-up snap, which aligned Sanders in his ideal slot location.
More no-huddle means more matchups with Josh Wilson, who’s allowing 1.74 yards per slot-coverage play (sixth-most of 39 slot cornerbacks) and has a -1.5 coverage grade (74th of 101 cornerbacks). In two-receiver sets, Sanders will predominantly face Rashean Mathis, whose coverage grade ranks 73rd. Sanders majors in the route types that hurt Detroit’s coverage and make Manning most comfortable, at a time when the veteran should mainly be worried about his own game.
WR John Brown – Arizona Cardinals, $6,000 (-$200)
Since we had to move off of Carson Palmer after two great weeks due to high projected ownership, Brown can still give us a piece of Arizona’s fantasy goodness. After shredding the Bears for three touchdowns, expect Larry Fitzgerald to be the higher-owned of the two, despite costing $700 more. Brown should finally get in on the fun against the 49ers.
A slew of drawn pass interference penalties — including three in the redzone — have muted his raw production, yet Brown’s catch percentage of 75 dwarfs last year’s mark (52.5 percent), and his passing game grade ranks 12th among 105 qualifying wideouts (+2.0). Brown’s nine catches qualify as the second-highest two-game total of his career, and his snap percentage is way up.
The Cardinals boast the week’s fourth-highest implied total, and it’s difficult to project them producing many of those points on the ground. Brown runs his routes from all over, but will predominantly face Kenneth Acker (-3.3 coverage grade), while Fitzgerald sees Tramaine Brock (+1.7). In reality, both matchups favor Arizona, but Brown’s is decidedly easier.
WR Donte Moncrief – Indianapolis Colts, $6,000 (No Price Change)
We want a piece of Andrew Luck’s redemption game, and Moncrief sets up well from several angles. He should again play a central role in the Colts passing game, six days after seeing a team-high eight targets. He hauled in all but one, for 122 yards and a score, with the lone incompletion coming against Darrelle Revis. The Titans don’t have Revis-level cornerbacks, or even Antonio Cromartie-level, and Moncrief beat him for that touchdown.
If T.Y. Hilton makes strides with his injured knee on the short week and plays his usual complement of snaps, Moncrief is still gaining on the ghost of Andre Johnson. The former Texan saw his snap rate fall from 82 percent in Week 1, to 69 percent on Monday night. Moncrief’s rose to 78 percent. Dwayne Allen, the only Colt besides Moncrief to convert a redzone target into a touchdown this year, is very questionable to play.
Tennessee’s cornerbacks have solid grades through two games, although they have faced Jameis Winston and Johnny Manziel. Old friend Blidi Wreh-Wilson has a positive 2015 coverage grade (+0.7), but considering he earned a -1.3 last week, and -15.3 last season (104th), that feels temporary. Moncrief will see plenty of The Bleeder on Sunday, as well as Perrish Cox, whose 2014 coverage grade (-0.6) ranked 48th.
WR James Jones – Green Bay Packers, $5,700 (+$300)
The good news is Jones went from playing 92 percent of snaps, to 99 percent. The bad news is his targets went from four, to just two. The unsustainable news is he caught his third touchdown of the year on six targets. So why in Lombardi’s name are we considering him for tournaments? There are several reasons, but the main one has to do with matchups. Plus Green Bay’s 28-point implied total is the third-highest this week.
With Eddie Lacy’s ankle very questionable, it’s tough to project a run-heavy game plan in Green Bay, despite James Starks being a more than capable backup. The Chiefs run defense ranks second (+16.6), even with nose tackle Dontari Poe coming around slowly from back surgery (-0.8 run stopping grade). They just held C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman to a combined 2.9 yards per carry, while Peyton Manning passed the Broncos to victory.
Jones isn’t the top option for Aaron Rodgers, or even the second. But Davante Adams hurt his ankle early in last week’s contest, and was hampered when he came back into the game. A diminished role due to the injury, or an in-game aggravation of it, shoots Jones up the target totem pole. Plus, he is set to face off with Jamell Fleming, the worst-graded coverage cornerback in the league through two weeks (-7.8).
TE Rob Gronkowski – New England Patriots, $8,400 (+$100)
Just a quick note on Gronk: He’s priced below the top two wideouts (by $900 and $600), who he is essentially tied with in point production. Until his price rises substantially, he is always a good play. It would just become repetitive to mention this every week.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs, $6,400 (-$200)
Zeus got knocked off the mountain last week. After shredding a supposedly tough Week 1 matchup in Houston with six catches for 106 yards and a pair of touchdowns, the Broncos held him to 58 yards on four grabs. Plus, Von Miller unceremoniously chucked him to the ground on a play that launched 1000 Vines. The bright side is that he saw six targets for the second week in a row, a number he reached only five times in 2014.
The most attractive tight ends this week include Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham ($100 cheaper than Kelce). As strange as it may seem, Kelce might be overlooked, despite a solid matchup in a game with the week’s highest projected total. Green Bay allowed the ninth-most yards to tight ends in 2014, and nearly all of their linebackers and safeties sport negative pass coverage grades this year.
TE Greg Olsen – Carolina Panthers, $5,900 (-$100)
Cam Newton does not necessarily need to be stacked with one of his pass catchers to be a strong tournament play, but Olsen gives the best chance of grabbing multiple touchdowns. He is typically Newton’s most targeted receiver, led in red zone targets even when Kelvin Benjamin was healthy last year, and in his last game against New Orleans caught 10 of 11 targets for 72 yards and a score.
After a disappointing Week 1 in which he was targeted just twice, Olsen saw 14 targets last week and turned them into 70 yards. He ran nine more pass routes despite the Panthers running just four more plays. Against a Saints defense that can’t rush the passer, and struggles to cover anyone, he should keep the momentum going, whether he’s stacked with Newton or not.