NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 6
Week 6 is all about running backs. Le’Veon Bell is at Miami, DeMarco Murray goes against the Browns, LeSean McCoy welcomes the 49ers, Lamar Miller faces the Colts, and Christine Michael takes on the Falcons. All are in excellent spots. All are expensive. There really is no wrong answer when choosing among them at this point, although some will be more correct than others come Sunday night.
The inclination is to find other ways to skin the Week 6 cat since they will all be popular plays – some, like McCoy, more than others. The problem comes from avoiding players who have the most bankable workloads, best matchups, and are all game-script agnostic. We would essentially need to nail every other lower-probability selection we make. Completely running away from those running backs is not advisable.
Since there are so many of them, we can still construct unique lineups around one, or maybe even two stud running backs. Use game stacks (Bell with Pittsburgh’s defense and Jarvis Landry, for instance), correlation plays (Houston’s defense with Miller), and pivots off of highly-owned value plays (Michael Thomas instead of Cameron Meredith). Make a lot of lineups at whatever buy-in level that allows you to do so. This is an interesting week and the season is almost halfway over, so have fun with it!
Here are some suggestions for Week 6 FanDuel tournaments. Good luck, everyone.
QB Tom Brady – New England Patriots, $9,000
In addition to running back, there is a lot to like among the top quarterbacks. Brady is the most expensive, albeit not by a wide margin, and will likely be lowest-owned. We can anticipate more traffic on Drew Brees at home against Cam Newton in a projected shootout, Russell Wilson welcoming fantasy’s most quarterback-friendly defense, and maybe even Ben Roethlisberger in Miami. Brady gets a Bengals team that has allowed the 13th-most points to passers on only the 30th-most attempts (31.2 per game), and he just threw 40 passes on the road when the Patriots led throughout.
Cincinnati’s pass coverage grades 26th-best and they’ve allowed 20-plus-yard completions on 16 percent of receptions (11th-highest), including the third-most touchdowns on deep throws. Last week, Brady completed four 20-plus-yard passes (his most since 2014) and gained 180 yards on them (most since 2013). The Patriots are again operating with tempo and have the second-highest implied total on the slate. They threw the third-most passes inside the 10-yard line last week, have a pair of red zone dominators at tight end, and Brady is playing his first home game since returning from suspension.
QB Alex Smith – Kansas City Chiefs, $6,800
We want to pay up at quarterback this week. The problem is we really want to spend for the stud running backs. Even the mid-to-low-priced tight ends aren’t especially enticing. Since players can’t be paid for with credit cards, we may need to reach down for Smith. He’s the $0.25-cent hot dog bun holding together our $25-dollar lobster roll this week. Smith doesn’t need to be remarkable, and the matchup against Oakland should ensure we won’t be eating off the floor on Monday. If he takes another 55 dropbacks like in his last game, we should be able to afford plenty of lobster.
The Raiders allow the second-most points to fantasy quarterbacks, and have surrendered the most passing yards per game on only the ninth-most passes. If Marcus Mariota’s Week 3 stinker against them is removed, Oakland has allowed an average of the weekly QB3.5 in their other four games. Smith has a 98.3 passer rating and a 7.1 yards-per-attempt mark from a clean pocket, versus 58.7 and 4.3 against pressure. The Raiders’ pass rush grades 20th-best and they only have seven sacks (30th). The Raiders are deficient in defending tight ends and perimeter receivers. Smith has a lot going for him this week beyond his 28th-most-expensive price tag.
RB Le’Veon Bell – Pittsburgh Steelers, $9,300
Considering we don’t need to know who the Steelers are up against to be confident Bell is a good play, this one doesn’t need a ton of color. Everyone wants Bell in their lineup, every week, but this week is special. This week even Ndamukong Suh wants Bell in his fantasy lineup. An exorbitant price makes the juicy matchup a bit less attainable, especially given the other elite running backs – all less expensive – have prime draws of their own. Bell will not be low-owned, but it is possible he isn’t so covered in chalk that he only helps us against half the field when he blows up. And he will blow up.
The Dolphins allow the most attempts per game to running backs (30.4) and the second-most rushing yards (131.4). Amazingly, backs have only scored one touchdown against them, and this looks like a week for regression. The Dolphins have run 84 total plays over the last two weeks, and allow a league-high 73.2 per game. Their defense can’t get off the field (3:00 drive length against; second-worst), and the offense can’t stay on it (2:03 drive length; second-worst). The touchdown-favorite Steelers will have the ball all game and Bell plays over 90-percent of snaps, with 90-percent of backfield touches, since returning in Week 4.
RB Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys, $8,100
Not commonly grouped with the stud runners this week, Elliott is still in play for tournaments and comes with the added bonus of being microscopically-owned relative to the buzzier backs. Fully transitioned to the NFL, he has the second-best grade among running backs since Week 3, after ranking 48th through his first two career games. During the last three weeks, he leads the league in rushing (412 yards), has a 6.1 yards-per-carry mark, has tacked on 76 receiving yards, and is the highest-scoring fantasy running back. Elliott operates in our third-best run blocking offense and has increased his yards-per-touch output in each game.
The Cowboys are a four-point road underdog, with Green Bay’s run defense grading second-best and allowing an NFL-low 2.0 yards per carry. Of course, the Packers have faced the flaccid running games of the Jaguars, Vikings, Lions, and Giants. Only Detroit’s rushing attack grades above 22nd-best. The Packers have also played slower of late, but against two up-tempo teams. The bet here is they want to get their offense as many possessions against Dallas’ well-hidden defense as possible, and will go up-tempo near their usual 50-percent home-game rate. The Cowboys’ 66.2-play average (eighth-most) exactly matches their rate through five games in 2014, when their running game bludgeoned the league.
RB Ryan Mathews – Philadelphia Eagles, $6,500
Mathews looks like a value, as he is the 23rd-most-expensive running back in a strong matchup. However, despite the attractive price tag, Mathews’ uncertain workload puts him GPP-only territory. He did see his snap rate rise back over 40-percent (41.0) for the first time since Week 1 (48.1), and he matched the 12 pass routes he ran in the opener. Of course, his 11 carries were half his Week 1 total and he fumbled in the fourth quarter. The good news is he caught all five of his targets – one for a touchdown – and only Darren Sproles saw appreciable playing time among other Eagles running backs.
Aside from some salary savings, the most attractive aspect of rolling with Mathews is the situation. While Philadelphia being a short road favorite (2.5 points) isn’t ideal, the matchup against fantasy’s fourth-most-generous running back defense is. Most Redskins’ linebackers have struggled to tackle in the running game, with Mason Foster (38th), Will Compton (42nd), Preston Smith (44th), and Trent Murphy (52nd) ranking poorly in Tackling Efficiency. Washington allows a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry, have the 25th-graded run defense, and the Eagles hand off at the league’s seventh-highest rate.
RB Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers, $6,300
Stewart is set to go after missing all or most of four games with a hamstring injury. Riding a player in his first action after nearly a month off is not a comfortable stance, but Stewart is an affordable route to exposure to what is projected to be the week’s highest-scoring matchup. We have seen only one full game from him, and it was in Denver. Stewart graded eighth-best at his position that week, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and forcing three missed tackles in a tough matchup. Last season’s 16th-highest-scoring fantasy running back (in 13 games) gets a far better matchup than the Broncos this week.
The Saints’ run defense grades 23rd, they allow 4.4 yards per carry (eighth-highest) and give up the most fantasy points per game to running backs. The last time they faced the Panthers at home, Stewart had 113 yards and a touchdown on 25 touches. With Cam Newton only recently cleared of the concussion protocol, there are questions over whether he will resume his usual goal line rushing load. One of Stewart’s biggest worries from a fantasy perspective has been losing high-leverage touches to Newton. For an affordable price and sure-to-be palatable ownership, Stewart makes an intriguing tournament play despite the first-game-back injury concern.
WR Odell Beckham – New York Giants, $8,300
Now nobody wants to play Beckham – for real this time. The national television spot, in what looked to be a shootout between a pair of up-tempo offenses, turned into a soul-crusher. Sure, he finished as a mid-range WR2, but everyone knows it was because of a garbage-time touchdown – since everyone stayed up begging for one. Now the Giants return home against our 29th-graded pass rush — a huge deal for the pressure-averse Eli Manning. In a week where cap dollars are scarcer than Giants fans happy with their petulant star wideout, Beckham will be under-owned.
This also isn’t a situation where Beckham is going to be marked by Richard Sherman or even Josh Norman. At worst, he will see Jimmy Smith only part of the time. He’s our 89th-graded coverage cornerback and does not shadow. At best, he gets Shareece Wright, who is back after taking a week off to douse the flames. Wright ranks 96th in coverage and allowed 16 catches on 25 targets, for 205 yards and five touchdowns in his last three games. Beckham finally getting right while roasting “Char-eece” is one of those scenarios that seem so obvious when looking back at the weekend on Monday morning.
WR Doug Baldwin – Seattle Seahawks, $7,600
Baldwin’s price dropped $200 since he last played, and while he’s not exactly inexpensive, he’ll be a nice mix of cost and ownership due to the big-name players he’s priced around. Baldwin was off to a solid start in Week 4 when he took a blow to the head. After a bye week and back home in Seattle, our fifth-highest-graded wideout is primed to bounce back. Baldwin has 20 targets, 17 catches, 256 yards and two touchdowns in a pair of home games. Russell Wilson has a 136.4 quarterback rating when he targets Baldwin – behind only Willie Snead and Brian Quick among 91 qualifying wideouts.
The Seahawks have a solid 26-point implied total against the Falcons, who allow the seventh-most fantasy points to wideouts on a per-game basis. Considering they have Desmond Trufant holding down one side on the perimeter, and Baldwin runs 81-percent of his routes out of the slot, it’s a good situation for Wilson’s top receiver. A lot of attention will center on Christine Michael, who is an excellent play against fantasy’s fifth-most-accommodative running back defense. Yet, Baldwin will have no problem dispensing with rookie free agent Brian Poole, who has struggled (111.0 quarterback rating against) on the rare occasions he’s been tested by high-end receivers.
WR Willie Snead – New Orleans Saints, $7,000
We want as much exposure to the game with the highest projected over/under (53) in a week where every other total is set below 48 points. Snead gives us a piece at a reasonable price (20th-most-expensive wideout) and palatable ownership. The Buccaneers plowed their way past 100 rushing yards against the Panthers 2.9-yards at a time, but Carolina’s run defense grades 12th-best and they allow 7.8 yards per reception (sixth-highest), with the 20th-graded pass coverage. The Saints are at home, where they’ve averaged over 335 passing yards and 2.9 passing touchdowns during the last five seasons.
Last year, the Panthers and Saints combined for 79 points, 613 passing yards and five touchdowns through the air. Snead missed that game and Week 3 of this season with a toe injury. Prior to that, he’d played 81-percent of snaps. Snead made it back into the lineup in Week 4, but for only 69-percent of snaps and one target (23-yard reception). After a bye week to fully heal – or 95-percent healed, according to him — Snead has a better shot to resume the workload that saw him average 8.5 targets, seven catches, 113 yards, and one touchdown per game. With over 70-percent of his routes originating from the slot, Snead will see a lot of Robert McClain – our 84th-graded coverage cornerback.
WR Will Fuller – Houston Texans, $6,900
Attention will be most focused on Lamar Miller’s likely breakout game, and for good reason. The Texans are home favorites against the tissue-soft Colts, who grade dead last in run defense and surrender the third-most fantasy points to running backs. Less glaring is Fuller’s advantage against a Colts pass coverage unit also grading 32nd. Indianapolis blitzes at the league’s third-highest rate (39.2-percent) and big-play artist Fuller has 10 targets, five catches, 98 yards and a score against extra rushers. The fact that they allow a middling 17th-most fantasy points to wideouts will hopefully keep Fuller’s ownership rate in check, despite his oasis price tag in a Week 6 value-draught.
Fuller is averaging 8.7 targets, 5.3 catches and 97.3 yards in home games, with three scores. He’s averaged six targets, two catches, and a scoreless 17.5 yards on the road. Five catches per game isn’t impressive, but his 17.7-yard aDOT and 16.4-yards-per-reception rates pack some punch. He will mostly face Patrick Robinson, our 108th-graded coverage cornerback, who last week was lit up by Chicago for eight catches on nine targets, 138 yards and a touchdown. Fuller is an enticing double-dip shot with the Texans defense – one of his touchdowns came on a punt return — against the most pressured quarterback in football. Add Lamar Miller to get a popular player into a unique lineup.
TE Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs, $6,400
Kelce is the seventh-most-expensive tight end this week, but has as good of a shot at leading the position in scoring as anyone. He will very likely have lower ownership, on top of a cheaper cost, than Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker. Among tight ends, Kelce ranks fourth in both targets (seven) and receptions (5.5) on a per-game basis. He is tied for the fifth-most red zone targets among all players, despite playing only four games. He is our fifth-highest-graded pass-catching tight end (cumulative grade), and the four players in front of him have not yet had their bye.
The Chiefs’ game in Oakland has shootout potential, with both teams featuring defenses that have struggled. The Raiders allow the second-most yards and the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends, despite only facing the 13th-most targets to the position. They have even larger problems covering wideouts, and Oakland allows 8.7 passing yards per attempt (second highest). When tested by such tight end luminaries as Jacob Tamme, rookie Hunter Henry, and a calcified Antonio Gates, the Raiders have failed. They have given zero indication they will have an answer for Kelce.
TE Dennis Pitta – Baltimore Ravens, $5,400
After a buzzy start to the season, the shine is off Pitta. Despite the third-most targets (eight) and catches (seven) among tight ends last week, his 59 yards (10th-most) and zero touchdowns continued a three-week stretch of hollow production. He still hasn’t scored a touchdown. Pitta did run the second-most routes of any tight end (39) and has more than anyone at his position this season. With a new offensive coordinator in place, Pitta’s usage is less certain – which is both worrisome and a potential positive. Hence he is a GPP-only play, despite a seemingly voluminous workload and Steve Smith’s likely absence.
What is a definite positive is the Ravens’ matchup against the Giants. While they have yet to be torched by tight ends to 2015-levels, when they allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position, New York remains vulnerable. Kyle Rudolph put up five catches, 55 yards and a touchdown on seven targets two weeks ago. The Packers didn’t need Richard Rodgers’ services last Sunday night, but Jason Witten had his best game of the season against New York and Coby Fleener was at least open often enough to do damage. Pitta’s price is a cap-saver, his matchup is strong, and his usage is likely to remain high.