NFL Chalk Talk: Week 1
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is more important than our actual box-score projections. Give a sharp player the ownership percentages before the tournament starts and he/she will be able to be profitable solely on that information.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage. This refers to the Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Aaron Rodgers $8,600: 28 percent
Andrew Luck (at BUF), Drew Brees (at ARZ) and Russell Wilson (at STL) all have tough spots. Peyton Manning is expensive relative to a gameplan I expect to be run-based. So the no-brainer top QB play this week is Rodgers, who carries an implied team total of 28 points while facing an anemic Bears defense. I won’t be eating a lot of chalk on Rodgers as there are cheaper quarterbacks with similarly high ceilings that give me access to higher priced RBs and WRs.
2. Sam Bradford $6,900: 18 percent
I was pretty sick over Sam Bradford’s performance in Preseason Week 3, when he went 10-of-10 for 121 yards and three touchdowns. It’s been obvious for months that Bradford was going to have a monster year, and that performance let the cat out of the bag. So now the people who thought Bradford wasn’t good realize it was because he was on the Rams. And the three-condom people that thought he’d get hurt realize he’s healthy right now. I still think Bradford’s price is cheap enough that we can use him hard in GPPs and profit.
3. Matt Ryan $7,500: 10 percent
At first, I thought Tyrod Taylor would be up around 14 percent. But then I realized I live in a hardcore fantasy football bubble and the common DraftKings player will not be on Tygod. I think they will be on Matt Ryan, because everyone knows the way to attack the Eagles is through the air – despite the addition of Byron Maxwell. I also think the common DFS player now knows to look at over/unders when making decisions, and the total in PHL/ATL is a whopping 55. A Ryan/Julio stack will likely be the most popular one this weekend, behind only Rodgers/Adams.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBS: Tyrod Taylor (8 percent), Ryan Tannehill (8 percent), Andy Dalton (3 percent)
RUNNING BACK
1. Adrian Peterson $7,700: 30 percent
Peterson became the consensus No. 1 overall pick in season-long drafts, which will carry a lot of weight this weekend in DFS. He’s also facing a 49ers defense that has been getting beaten up in the national media for months following all the retirements and injuries and suspensions. The public (and sharps) are all over Minnesota, as evidenced by a massive line move from SF -4 to MIN -2.5. That move is over a very long time period, but it’s still eye-opening. So yes, everyone is on Peterson and I am as well – at least in cash games.
2. Eddie Lacy $7,500: 27 percent
It’s easy to go cheap at wideout and spend up at running back this week. Everyone is going to have Davante Adams and a lot of people will use Eddie Lacy too – even in the same lineup. I wouldn’t do that in a GPP as RB and WR from the same team have a solidly negative correlation, but many people will. When the player props come out, I’d guess Lacy is the heaviest favorite to score a TD Sunday.
3. Jeremy Hill $7,100: 19 percent
If you’re making a lineup on DraftKings, there is a column that reads “OPRK.” It stands for opponent defensive rank vs. position. Well, there’s a bright green 32 next to Jeremy Hill’s name because the Raiders were 32nd in the league against the run last year. That alone will bring Hill’s ownership up a ton, probably in the range it should be even though he’s not a household name.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Jamaal Charles (6 percent), Latavius Murray (4 percent), Tevin Coleman (5 percent)
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Davante Adams $4,400: 45 percent
If Jordy Nelson’s injury happened before DraftKings came out with their pricing, Adams probably would have been in the $6500-$7000 range. He still would have been in play for me given this matchup with the Bears and Adams’ every-down role with the best quarterback in the game. You can be sure Adams will be the most owned player on the entire site – cash games, tournaments, everything. I think if you are putting 1-10 entries in the Milly Maker, there is a lot of merit to fading Adams. I’d never think about fading him in cash or smaller tournaments.
2. Julio Jones $9,300: 30 percent
Yes, Julio is very expensive. But with so much value available this week, it’s easy to make room for him. I’ll be making room where I can as the game flow, pace and matchup are all right. One way to still profit on a player we know will be highly owned is to overexpose yourself to the field. If Julio is 30 percent owned and we have him in 100 percent of our lineups, we’re coming out ahead.
3. Odell Beckham $9,200: 18 percent
The face of Madden, the Catch Heard Round the World, every magazine cover everywhere. Odell Beckham is the toast of the NFL coming into this season and he has a dreamy matchup against a bad Dallas secondary that will be without top corner Orlando Scandrick. There’s definitely some merit to going OBJ over Julio in tournaments, even though I have Julio projected better raw. That 12 percent projected ownership difference is a lot.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Calvin Johnson (9 percent), A.J. Green (8 percent), Nelson Agholor (7 percent)
TIGHT END
1. Greg Olsen $5,300: 24 percent
Kelvin Benjamin (knee) is done. The Panthers are starting Ted Ginn and Philly Brown at wideout. And the Jaguars have had more than their fair share of struggles against the tight end over the last few years. Olsen is as chalky as it gets in the non-Gronk Sunday/Monday slate, especially when noting he got eight targets in the first half of the third preseason game.
2. Martellus Bennett $4,300: 18 percent
We can save $1000 by going down to Bennett, which will keep his ownership percentage pretty high. It will be even higher if Alshon Jeffery (questionable, calf) ends up sitting. Either way, Bennett is a fine play given the likely game flow (CHI playing from behind and at home).
3. Jimmy Graham $5,600: 9 percent
At first, I thought Graham would be down around 4-6 percent. Then I started thinking about the options in this non-Gronk slate and what the public perception is of Graham. Is the average player more likely to click on Travis Kelce (who they were “burned” by often last year) or Graham? So while I do think Graham is an excellent GPP play, I don’t think he’ll be down around the 3-5 percent some were hoping.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Kyle Rudolph (3 percent), Jordan Reed (6 percent)