NFL DFS Ownership Analysis: Week 1

by Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino) Last Updated 2016-09-12 02:26:05

One thing that can easily get lost in the daily grind is that DFS is a game against other players, and not exclusively a contest to make the most accurate predictions.

Obviously we want to be very good at understanding what is likely to happen, but we cannot get so sure of our ability to predict player performance that we forget the true goal of the contest. That goal is to defeat all of our opponents. This article is designed to help you achieve that goal.

Editor’s Note: Predicting ownership can help you gain an even bigger edge on the field. Gain access to Chris Gimino’s FULL Ownership Projections (for FanDuel and DraftKings subscribers) here!

Quarterback

Three at the Top

Dak Prescott checks in with the highest projection on both sites for good reason. He really made the most of his preseason opportunity even before Tony Romo’s injury. The hype was already building, and now his minimum price tag, elite offensive line, non-threatening match-up, and high points per $ projection make him the Week 1 mega chalk on both sites. The lineups you can produce with him at the helm are far too sexy to ignore, and for this reason there is actually a chance these projections aren’t high enough. You might fight me on the exact %, but nobody will argue against him as the highest owned Week 1 QB.

Derek Carr and Drew Brees square off in one of the most highly touted matchups of the week. The buzz amongst sharp tout sites and public information sites will all point to this game as an extremely high scoring shootout. The high Vegas total is a huge boon to their ownership scores, and WR correlations also drove up their number. Ultimately, it was an easy call to land on a projection towards the high end on these players. If either of them fall out of the top 5, it will be an upset.

FRIDAY UPDATE: The news on the Indianapolis secondary continues to get better for Matthew Stafford, and I believe this could sway ownership in his direction. Stay tuned to the Ownership projections page as I expect his figure to climb as I survey more and more resources.

My Favorite QB Ownership Value of the Week

Jameis Winston checks in with projections under 3% on both sites. Despite rating fairly well in terms of projections and points per $ across the industry, there are just too many other factors weighing him down to expect a high ownership this weekend. For starters, he’s not rating well in public player metrics. He plays on a team with one of the lowest popularity index ratings, and he’s not being drafted in season long drafts as a QB1. Tout sites are not going out of their way to identify Winston as a top GPP target, and in my opinion he’s essentially falling through the cracks. There are better options on both sides of his salary. Users would rather pay up for the more obvious top plays, or down for the top expert consensus play in Dak.

I feel like there is value here from an ownership vs. upside perspective, and that makes him a very interesting GPP play. From a matchup perspective, I don’t see much that would preclude Winston from having a huge game. Everybody seems to think the Falcons are going to score plenty of points (See Julio Jones projection below). If that is indeed the case, then a scenario where Jameis has to throw it to keep pace is not out of the question. Since we project the Falcons to have a somewhat porous defense, Winston is a candidate to be playing in a shootout. The game is also indoors, and thus I’m going to uncork a boatload of Winston in my lineups.

Running Back

Three Chalky Options

A change in role is one of the most immediately identifiable values in fantasy football. Spencer Ware is currently the mega-chalk and that could actually get slightly more pronounced with favorable Jamaal Charles news as practice reports are released. Aside from being severely underpriced for his role, Ware is also playing on a team that has strong RB friendly identity. His squad is a 7 point home favorite and faces an opponent that scored poorly in my defensive matchup rating. He basically checks every box and as of now is easily the highest owned RB on both sites. The buzz is astronomically high.

Latavius Murray is running behind one of the NFL’s highest rated offensive lines in a high Vegas total game. He carries a very low salary as compared to his projection, which elevates his ownership scoring substantially. He’s probably getting touted just enough that the public will get on him as a play. This should counteract the sharps who decide to fade him. The rest of the DFS savvy crowd should be willing to take the value he provides and bank it in their rosters as a means to afford better plays elsewhere. He’s an optimizer favorite and a good bet to land on at least 15% of rosters on both sites.

I have 7 projection models open at this very second, and Lamar Miller lands in the top 6 of every single one of them. His high seasonal ADP is certain to help his cause in Week 1, and his asking price is more than fair considering his upside against the Chicago Bears. Fantasy owners are expecting Miller to get a lot of work in an offense that was very up-tempo last season. Miller was also boosted by a high Vegas score in my projections. The factors are all lining up well for Miller to land on a ton of rosters.

My Favorite RB Ownership Value of Week

Recency bias is a bad mofo. Up until Wednesday I wasn’t sure anybody would pay attention to DeMarco Murray in Week 1, mostly due to his pitiful 2015 campaign with the Eagles. Mike Mularkey said on Wednesday that Murray will in fact be the featured back against the Vikings, and that news is music to my ears in the music city. While this “news” may cause me to boost DeMarco Murray’s ownership a little before the weekend is through, I don’t think it will climb nearly enough for the ownership bargain to completely disappear. We have an excellent scenario where high opportunity meets lower ownership. I suggest we take advantage in multi-entry GPPs.

The public won’t be heavily invested in this play, and I expect the massive fields to feature more public money than ever. The Vegas total is low, and the Vikings have the perception of a stout run defense. DeMarco has the lowest fantasy point projection amongst guys named Murray in his price range, and he’ll be the lowest owned Murray as a result. There really isn’t anything tangible that points to him being popular, and my projection reflects his relative obscurity.

So why play him in GPPs? Murray is the clear #1 back in an “exotic smash mouth” offense. The preseason tape leaves clues that Murray still has breakaway speed, and has maintained some physicality from the old days in Dallas. He has a quality backup to assist him when he needs a breath, and we can start to increase our trust in Marcus Mariota in his second year. Trusting Mariota is important if we expect the Titans to sustain offense and allow Murray to accumulate touches. With questionable QB play on the other side, this game script could turn favorable in a hurry. Favorable game flow will allow the Titans to feed their feature back to protect the lead. The pace will certainly be slow in this case, and we would likely need a multi-TD output from Murray to make this play work. I can’t rule that out with his role as the goal line back, and the combination of upside and ownership place him squarely on my list of GPP favorites.

Wide Receiver

Paying up at WR is a theme we can expect in Week 1. Value exists at QB, RB, TE, and even with your 3rd WR that you can use to easily roster a one or two of the studs. The projections and match-ups for Julio Jones and Antonio Brown are beyond attractive. These two are going 1,2 in most season long fantasy drafts. They are the quintessential studs of fantasy football, and having an expectation below 20% for either player seems unreasonable at this point. There is no doubt that they could have monster games, and their high ownership is as well justified as any I’ve seen in any sport lately.

Amari Cooper and Marvin Jones will both see elevated ownership for similar reasons. They play in the two most attractive fantasy spots of the week, and pair well with somewhat popular fantasy QBs. Vegas metrics boost them up the rankings, along side high points per dollar projections. Expert consensus is also heavily in their favor, as is their individual and team matchup ratings. They’ll be favorites of the experienced DFS players, and the hype on public information sites should also boost their exposure from the public. I think they’ll both qualify as the chalk when the dust settles.

My Favorite WR Ownership Value of Week

I’ll once again lean on the critical factors in my ownership scoring as a reason to have Sammy Watkins projected at a discounted ownership rate. His Vegas total isn’t amongst the elite. His projections get somewhat buried among the giants, and his price is lost in a strange middle tier of options. The match-up isn’t particularly noticeable as compared to the other higher projected WRs, and he hasn’t really made any waves in the preseason. He’s basically the high round consolation prize in the WR heavy draft trends of season long leagues, and that seems to be translating to my analysis here in Week 1. He won’t be un-owned, but his current projections leave room for value considering his elite ceiling.

So here are some things we can hang our hats on with Watkins for Week 1 that could lead to him being a week winner. First, his individual matchup with Jimmy Smith and the Ravens WRs is very beatable. His deep ball chemistry with Tyrod Taylor was demonstrated in 2015, and he’s one of the top candidates to break a long TD on the slate. Next, we should look at the WR talent around him. Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin hardly qualify as targets that demand the ball. Finally, we can look at his potential to rack up yardage and get the DK bonus as a potential boon to his value. His profile allows room to accumulate points in multiple ways, and not the least of which is a high yardage total. Overall, Watkins stands out as a high ceiling candidate that won’t reach the top tiers of ownership. He’s a fantastic target in larger field tournaments.

Tight End

Editor’s Note: Rob Gronkowski has been ruled OUT for Week 1.

The Top Three

Tight end is by far the position giving me the most fits at the moment. I can see a player like Rob Gronkowski having a wide range of potential outcomes, and it makes me nervous that the metrics will probably have the least predictive qualities of anybody on the slate. His price is astronomical for the TE position, and the rosters that include him just look uglier than those that don’t. His match-up isn’t particularly thrilling against Arizona, and his QB is questionable at best. His offense features a wide range of potential attackers and a coach who is known to vary his approach on a game by game basis. There is even another TE on the roster in the form of Martellus Bennett who has been known to suction targets in the short area and vulture goal line looks. Despite all this, his upside is undeniable and he is eligible at the scarcest position. His popularity amongst the public is through the roof, and even the sharp crowd understands what he can bring to the table when he gets his Gronk on. He has to be one of the highest projected players, though he is making me feel like he is projected both too high and too low simultaneously. It’s a very strange feeling.

UPDATE: Gronk is out, and Martellus Bennett will now be one of the highest owned players on the slate based on pricing and opportunity. His situation is also highly visible playing in New England and on Sunday Night.

I watched Evan Silva light up like Christmas tree when Jordan Reed and the Redskins were mentioned on last night’s Grinders Live “Pick 6” episode. When an extremely sharp and influential opinion leader gives this kind of endorsement, it makes me feel good about him being the highest projected player on Fanduel. His number is being driven by Vegas and his industry-wide love in projections. His seasonal value and team popularity also inspire confidence that the average player will know his name and want to click. He’s substantially cheaper than Gronk and allows a slightly more attractive roster as a result. I feel good about where he’s projected, and I’m confident in him as the chalk.

Coby Fleener has been invisible in the preseason, and for some reason nobody is blinking. It feels a little bit like C.J. Spiller last year, which is almost certainly a sentence I will regret typing by Monday morning. His elite level QB just signed a mega-deal and his team identity favors targets to the TE. The match-up score is exceptional for the TE, and his Vegas metrics are near the peak on this slate. His pricing is substantially cheaper than Gronk and Reed. For this reason, It’s very possible the line I have set for him is near the low end of his range. No matter where he lands, I’ll sleep well knowing I have put him near the top of the list in terms of ownership, and that ownership much lower than this would be a pretty big upset.

My Favorite TE Ownership Value of Week

The other pass catchers in this game are easily going to get the first looks in terms of correlation plays. In terms of one-off options, the metrics seem to favor Delanie Walker, Coby Fleener, and Jared Cook. This leaves Ebron as a TE playing in a high Vegas total game and passing friendly game script with a slight discount on his ownership. I am currently projecting him to get slightly overlooked despite his price tag. His potential to exploit a banged up and vulnerable Colts defense is every bit as high as the mega chalk Marvin Jones and somewhat popular Golden Tate. If I’m taking exposure in this game to the Lions, then I might as well do so with one of the lowest owned pass catchers. I can fill the challenging TE position and feel like I am still getting a high ceiling without feeling like I’m devouring the chalk.

Defense

The Top Two

The Seahawks are a pretty easy call as the chalk this week. The public will be all over this pick and the sharp crowd should be too. Vegas is a primary driving force here, and they have by far the best outlook from that perspective. The Texans have NFL mega-star JJ Watt and first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney calling attention to their unit, as well as a sizeable spread at home. The price is more attractive on DK than FD, but I don’t expect that to slow anybody down given the value that exists on this slate. I do see a few other defensive units that could unseat the Texans from the number two slot, but ultimately the most likely outcome I see is shown in my projections. They’ll be well owned for sure.

My Favorite DST Ownership Value of Week

Look, it’s not great. The Titan defense isn’t particularly imposing and they aren’t getting any love in projections. The Vikings are road favorites and the expectation is that this game is going to feature a lot of running and limited opportunities for sacks, INTs and defensive TDs. If there is value here, it isn’t being widely accepted by the crowd.

The reason I’m interested in this game (full disclosure, I’m not going to have extremely heavy exposure) is that I think the Titans will win. I am projected the Titans to get ahead, and force the Viking QB to play with a bit more pace. If I am correct, we’ll get exposure to some additional opportunity at an extremely volatile price tag. The volatile nature of defensive scoring leaves more than enough opportunity for the Titans to come through, and I’ll make sure I find a spot for them on a few rosters to account for uncertainty