NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 12
It’s the best week of the NFL season as no teams are on bye and we get a great Thanksgiving slate Thursday that you will hopefully get to enjoy with family and friends and great food! Even with the three Thursday games and the Sunday night / Monday game off the main slate we still have 11 games to work with that already have some big changes at QB and plenty of other new injuries and other news to monitor throughout the week.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal-line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside. I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for Week 12, how likely guys who missed week 11 are going to play in Week 12, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of Sunday and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Important guys on the main slate who are out for Week 12 include Justin Fields, Raheem Mostert, Leonard Fournette, JaMarr Chase, Joe Mixon, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, Kadarius Toney, Darren Waller, Rondale Moore, Hunter Renfrow, Isaiah Likely, Mike Williams, Kyle Pitts, Russell Gage, Allen Robinson, KJ Hamler, James Robinson, Chase Edmonds, Greg Dortch, and Mecole Hardman.
Marquise Brown and Joshua Kelley have both been activated off IR.
Fields and Mixon headline the questionable players with the biggest impact if out as the Bears offense as a whole would be hard to trust if Trevor Siemian has to start while Mixon sitting out would make Samaje Perine a top value play of the slate coming off a 3 TD performance on 15 touches after Mixon left last game. Fournette is sounding like he avoided a serious hip injury but if he ends up out then Rachaad White would be a top value play of the slate in a nice matchup with Cleveland.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week. Make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Jets have benched Zach Wilson for Mike White so this should be a boost for all the Jets skill position players although they are pretty deep at WR especially if Corey Davis is able to return.
- Sam Darnold will start for the Panthers with PJ Walker still hurt and Mayfield not doing enough with his opportunity and this is good news for DJ Moore as he’s had success with Darnold but overall it’s still a bad matchup with Denver.
- The Texans are benching Davis Mills so Kyle Allen will draw the start against Miami in what is hopefully a boost to Cooks, Collins, and the entire offense.
- Stafford is out with another concussion and with Wolford also dealing with a neck injury Bryce Perkins is on track to start in a brutal matchup on the road in KC. The Cardinals could get back Kyler Murray who said he feels good and expects to start but if he can’t go Colt McCoy would remain the starter while Moore is likely out and we’ll see on Brown and Dortch later in the week.
- The Broncos released Melvin Gordon and will also be without Chase Edmonds who went on IR with a high ankle sprain so Latavius Murray will be the bell cow in a great matchup with Carolina with just Mack and Ozigbo as his likely backups.
- Kyle Pitts is likely done for the year with an MCL injury so MyCole Pruitt and Parker Hesse will be the top TEs for Atlanta now but this should give a boost to Drake London and the other WRs mostly.
- LAC/ARI is full of WR injuries as Mike Williams re-aggravated his ankle injury and is likely out making Josh Palmer a top value play while Rondale Moore is likely out with a groin injury and ARI could give Marquise Brown another week off as they have their bye next week for additional rest. Hopkins, Green, and Dortch are in line for another big workload as they saw a combined 31 targets last week and draw a much better matchup this week.
- The Chiefs remain without Mecole Hardman on IR and I’d expect Kadarius Toney to be out with another hamstring injury while JuJu Smith-Schuster should be able to return from the concussion protocol.
- My favorite game stacks are LAC/ARI, LVR/SEA, CIN/TEN, and TBB/CLE.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Lamar Jackson ($8,200) is the top p/$ projected QB as he’s at his cheapest price since week 2 and draws a solid matchup against Jacksonville who are in the top 10 of fantasy points allowed to QBs this year. After going for over 40 FP in two of his first three games this season he’s only been above 20 FP once since then so his ownership should continue to dip but if he can put together a solid game both passing and rushing the ball I think he has a great shot at a ceiling game this week at a great salary and potentially lower than usual ownership in cash games.
- The Chiefs and Dolphins have the highest team totals of the slate so Patrick Mahomes ($9,000) and Tua Tagovailoa ($8,300) should be very popular cash game QBs as they have very safe floors and absolutely sky high ceilings. Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,800) is my favorite cash game value QB back at home with a high projected team total and a plethora of weapons while Jacoby Brissett ($6,900) is my favorite cheap QB for GPPs.
- At RB Rachaad White ($6,400) and Latavius Murray ($6,200) are my favorite p/$ plays while Dameon Pierce ($6,900) is also looking like a strong p/$ play having dropped $700 in price from last week and I really like James Conner ($7,000) who only went up $200 from last week and draws a much better matchup with LAC who struggles against the run. Antonio Gibson ($6,100) is another excellent p/$ target having seen 21 touches last week and draws a very fantasy friendly matchup with ATL this week. Jeff Wilson $7,700 will cost a bit extra than the other value RBs but his matchup with HOU is one of the best in the league putting him in play in all formats.
- At WR Deebo Samuel ($6,900) is really jumping out as the top p/$ play as he’s the cheapest he’s been all season and even with McCaffrey coming to town he’s still getting the ball in a variety of ways and is too cheap for someone who can score every time he touches the ball. With Mike Williams hurting his ankle again Josh Palmer ($6,800) went off for 106/2 on 10 targets last week and his price only went up $200 so I have to consider him one of the best p/$ plays at WR as defenses have to account for Keenan Allen ($7,300) as well now who is also a very strong play at that price.
- Other WRs that I think are underpriced in nice spots this week include DK Metcalf ($7,200), Drake London ($6,100), Treylon Burks ($5,900), Demarcus Robinson ($6,200), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,700), and Donovan Peoples-Jones ($6,300).
- At TE Travis Kelce ($8,200) is the clear highest ceiling and highest floor combo option but he is hard to fit with a well-balanced team so I don’t mind going with Mark Andrews ($7,300) at a lower price and lower ownership. Tyler Higbee ($5,700) should get another heaping of targets with Kupp out and the Rams likely having to throw it a ton to keep up with KC while George Kittle ($6,200) has a lot of target competition but we saw what he can do with limited targets last week going for 84 yards and two 2 TDS and his price is still super cheap. MyCole Pruitt ($4,700) should draw some ownership as the top pass-catching TE for ATL but does have a super low floor while Greg Dulcich ($5,300), Cole Kmet ($5,300), and David Njoku ($5,600) are my favorite targets in the $5k range.
- The Chiefs ($4,900) are my favorite defense this week at home against a Rams team currently with a team total under 15 while the Broncos ($3,900) are my favorite cheaper option against Carolina who currently has a team total of just 17.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Tua Tagovailoa ($6,900) is my top p/$ play drawing a great matchup with Houston as he should have a very safe 2 TD+ floor with 5+ TD upside. Patrick Mahomes ($8,200) and Lamar Jackson ($8,000) remain excellent plays if you want to spend up while Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,600) and Geno Smith ($6,000) are where I’d go if you want to save more money at QB.
- Rachaad White ($5,100), Latavius Murray ($5,000), Dameon Pierce ($6,100), Antonio Gibson ($5,400), and Jeff Wilson ($5,900) are my top p/$ RB plays and for a little extra salary I really like Kenneth Walker ($6,900), David Montgomery ($6,400), and James Conner ($6,600). If Mixon doesn’t clear the concussion protocol and is out then Samaje Perine ($5,600) will be a top p/$ play.
- At WR I still really like the prices of Deebo Samuel ($6,800) and Josh Palmer ($5,400) but Treylon Burks ($4,200) is sitting at a price that puts him in to the conversation for top p/$ WR of the slate as he’s seen increased targets in each of his last four games and has big play ability that can pay off his salary on just one long TD. Terry McLaurin ($5,800), Demarcus Robinson ($4,300), Garrett Wilson ($4,300), Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,800), Drake London ($4,900), and Nico Collins ($4,100) are other really strong value WRs to consider this week.
- At TE there are a ton of value options if you don’t go with Travis Kelce ($7,700) or Mark Andrews ($6,500). MyCole Pruitt ($2,500) is the top punt play of the slate but I’d rather spend just a little bit extra to get someone like Greg Dulcich ($3,700), David Njoku ($3,600), Tyler Higbee ($4,200), or Cole Kmet ($3,900) who offer higher ceilings than Pruitt. George Kittle ($5,300) is also a top target at his current price.
- For defense the Chiefs ($2,800) are just way under-priced against the Rams and will be my highest owned D while the Broncos ($3,800) remain my 2nd favorite defense of the week.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
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Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn