NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 17
We’re back this week with a thirteen game main slate on Sunday, and a lot is on the line as far as playoff hopes and bettering positions for byes and seeds. The Bills aren’t on the main slate, but the Chiefs are, as they both need to keep winning for a shot at the first round bye, while the Eagles and Vikings are still battling for the the best NFC record, and we’ll see if Jalen Hurts is able to play this week, as he continues his push for a first round bye along with a shot at an MVP award (although that is way less important to him). A bunch of teams are on the playoff bubble, so this is a crucial week for most teams in the hunt to go all out for a win, which should produce some great games along with great fantasy lines, so let’s dive in and figure out the plays that are shaping up to go off in DFS this week. I also have to mention that FanDuel kind of screwed up and now doesn’t have LAR/LAC on their main slate but instead has the 8:20PM PIT/BAL game while DK will have LAR/LAC, so their main slate will end after the 4 o’clock games while FD’s main slate will end after the 8:20PM game.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside so I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for week 17, how likely guys who missed week 16 are to play week 17, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of week 17 and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Important guys on the main slate who are out or likely out for week 17 include Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson (FD only), Colt McCoy, Deebo Samuel, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Gibson, Mecole Hardman, Marquise Goodwin, DeVante Parker, Greg Dulcich, Jonnu Smith, Cameron Brate, Kylen Granson, Will Dissly, and Teagan Quitoriano.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- We’re leaning doubtful on Hurts this week, so Gardner Minshew will likely draw another start, and he showed last week he’s more than capable of producing for DFS with all the weapons he has around him.
- Tua suffered another concussion and is out this week, so Teddy Bridgewater will start for the Dolphins against the Pats, which will limit the ceiling of Hill and Waddle and should increase the usage of Mostert and Wilson. Bridgewater himself will only be a GPP play for me this week as the road matchup with New England is just too tough to trust even at his low price.
- The Commanders are going back to Carson Wentz after losing two in a row and falling to the bottom of the NFC East. Jahan Dotson was thriving with Heinicke, so we’ll see if this move hurts him at all, as he is still super cheap on both sites.
- The Raiders have benched Carr and are starting Jarrett Stidham in a tough matchup against SF, so this entire offense will be hard to trust to do a lot this week.
- The Jets are going back to Mike White, as he’s medically cleared to play, so Garrett Wilson gets a big boost, and he saw a price decrease on both sites, making him a favorite play against SEA.
- Colt McCoy remains out for ARI, and they will turn to David Blough at QB this week, so it’ll be hard to trust Hopkins and any of the other pass catchers again.
- The Colts will stick with Nick Foles at QB, so fire up the Giants defense in DFS.
- With Antonio Gibson ruled out, Brian Robinson is looking at a big time workload in a great home matchup against CLE, so he is now in play as a top value RB in DFS.
- Shane Zylstra looks like the Lions’ top TE now, going for three TDs on six targets last week and is a viable DFS punt play this week.
- Royce Freeman sits atop the Texans RB depth chart this week after getting 17 touches last week, and if he can find the end zone against the Jags, he could be a very strong value play.
My favorite game stack is CHI/DET, sitting at a 52.5 total right now while ARI/ATL is also stackable even at its current low total of 41.5, as it should be a close game with some nice cheap options on both sides. MIN/GBP is another nice game to stack, sitting at a 48.5 total and just a three-point spread currently.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- My favorite p/$ QBs right now are Justin Fields ($8,400), Trevor Lawrence ($7,800), Kirk Cousins ($7,600), Gardner Minshew ($7,500), Jared Goff ($7,400), Mike White ($7,000), and Brock Purdy ($7,000) with Lawrence, Goff or Cousins where I’m leaning for cash games.
- At RB, my top p/$ plays are Brian Robinson ($6,900), Kenneth Walker ($6,700), James Conner ($8,000), Travis Etienne ($7,700), Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,000), and David Montgomery ($7,500).
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are Brandon Aiyuk ($6,600), Christian Kirk ($6,900), DJ Moore ($7,000), Zay Jones ($6,300), DeVonta Smith ($7,800), DJ Chark ($6,000), Garrett Wilson ($7,300), and Drake London ($6,700).
- At TE George Kittle ($7,400) and TJ Hockenson ($7,000) are coming off huge weeks and should be popular plays for good reason, but if you want go cheaper, I like Dallas Goedert ($6,000), Evan Engram ($5,800), or Cole Kmet ($5,300).
- For defense I like the Chiefs ($4,300), Giants ($4,700), Eagles ($4,400), and Patriots ($4,000)
Looking at DraftKings:
- I like going cheap with either Kirk Cousins ($6,400), Jared Goff ($5,600), or Trevor Lawrence ($6,200) in cash games, while Minshew, White, and Purdy are all solid plays for under $6k.
- Brian Robinson ($5,200), James Conner ($7,200), David Montgomery ($6,900), and Travis Etienne ($6,400) are my favorite RBs for cash games, while Cam Akers ($6,100) is also in play after going bonkers last week for three TDs.
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are DeVonta Smith ($7,100), Keenan Allen ($7,000), DK Metcalf ($6,900), DJ Moore ($5,700), Garrett Wilson ($5,500), Drake London ($4,900), DJ Chark ($4,300), and Zay Jones ($5,000).
- George Kittle ($5,900) and TJ Hockenson ($5,400) are both way too cheap, and I don’t mind using both in cash games, while Goedert, Engram, and Kmet remain my favorite plays under $5k.
- For defense, I really like the price of the Patriots ($2,600) against Bridgewater, while the Eagles ($4,000), Giants ($3,900), and Chiefs ($3,800) are very strong spend up options if you have the salary.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.
Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn