NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 8
More big changes at QB this week with Matt Ryan getting benched for Sam Ehlinger along with Malik Willis starting for an injured Tannehill and we lost one of the most electric rookies in Breece Hall for the season with a torn ACL. There’s plenty of other new injuries and old injuries to monitor heading in to week 8, but we won’t have to worry about the Chiefs or Chargers as they are on bye.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside so I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for week 8, how likely guys who missed week 7 are to play week 8, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of week 8 and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Guys on the main slate who are out for week 8 include Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Ezekiel Elliott, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Cordarrelle Patterson, Breece Hall, Darren Waller, Deebo Samuel, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Marquise Brown, Kenny Golladay, Noah Brown, Nico Collins, Corey Davis, DJ Chark, Treylon Burks, Adam Trautman, Jahan Dotson, Kyle Philips, Jauan Jennings, and Daniel Bellinger.
- Van Jefferson will make his season debut for the Rams and is expected to have a normal workload.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Sam Ehlinger is the biggest change this week taking over at QB for the Colts and opinions have been pretty mixed as far as if this is a downgrade or upgrade to the Colts offense and pass catchers. Personally I was never a fan of Ryan, so getting a younger, more mobile QB is an upgrade for any offense, and although it may take a week or two to build the chemistry with his receivers, I think Ehlinger will be a successful QB down the stretch.
- The Jaguars traded James Robinson to the Jets, and we’ll see if he’s available to play for them this week, but overall this is a big hit to Michael Carter’s upside, and I will only consider Carter in DFS if Robinson is inactive. This is also a big endorsement for Travis Etienne as the bellcow for the Jaguars now, and although he’s not on the main slate this week, I’d expect his price to shoot up pretty quickly over these next couple weeks.
- Chuba Hubbard is out for the Panthers so Donta Foreman will be the RB1 and get a sizeable workload in a nice matchup with the Falcons making one of my favorite value RBs to target in all formats. James Conner is also out so Eno Benjamin will get another week as the top RB and is a solid DFS play while Tony Pollard will carry the load for the Cowboys with Elliott out and Pollard is a top play in all formats.
- With DK Metcalf potentially out this week, Marquise Goodwin would be the WR2 next to Lockett, and he has to be in consideration as a value play this week coming off a 2 TD performance and another week of practice with more reps from Geno. This also makes Tyler Lockett an elite WR1, who should see 10+ targets and a few extra red zone looks.
- My favorite games to target and stack are ARI/MIN, MIA/DET, and LVR/NOS.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- My favorite p/$ QBs right now are Kyler Murray ($8,200), Kirk Cousins ($7,800), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700), and Daniel Jones ($7,500). Jalen Hurts ($9,200) is super expensive but still offers the highest ceiling of any QB on this slate, and some lower-owned cheap QBs that I like taking shots on are Andy Dalton ($7,100), Malik Willis ($6,700), Geno Smith ($7,000), Justin Fields ($6,500), Taylor Heinicke ($6,400), PJ Walker ($6,400), and Sam Ehlinger ($6,000).
- At RB my top p/$ plays are Tony Pollard ($6,300), Raheem Mostert ($6,800), Eno Benjamin ($7,000), Donta Foreman ($6,400), Dameon Pierce ($7,300), Miles Sanders ($7,400), and Alvin Kamara ($7,800). Derrick Henry ($10,000) is my top overall RB in a great matchup with Houston, but he is going to be hard to fit at that price, while Kenneth Walker ($8,400) is my favorite RB between $8-$9k.
- At WR my favorite p/$ plays are Chris Olave ($6,900), Terry McLaurin ($6,800), DJ Moore ($6,200), Brandin Cooks ($6,100), WanDale Robinson ($5,900), Curtis Samuel ($5,600), Marquise Goodwin ($5,600), Parris Campbell ($5,600), and George Pickens ($5,500).
- At TE we don’t have Kelce or Andrews available, so I’m expecting George Kittle ($6,900) to get some pretty decent ownership coming off a big week and still at a very reasonable price. I also like TJ Hockenson ($6,300) and Zach Ertz ($6,000) facing defenses that have struggled against TEs, while Dallas Goedert ($5,900) and Pat Freiermuth ($5,700) are my favorite options under $6k.
- The Cowboys ($5,000) are my favorite defense this week, but I also like the Patriots ($4,700), Eagles ($4,600), Titans ($4,400), and Panthers ($4,200).
Looking at DraftKings:
- I have to mention Sam Ehlinger first, as he’s only $4,000, which will allow you make a pretty stacked lineup at every other position if you’re willing to take the risk of a terrible debut. If he gets 15+ FP, he is a slam dunk at that price, and anything above 20 FP will make him the top p/$ play of the year at QB. He’s at home, has plenty of weapons, and is mobile, so given his ability to rush for a TD or throw for a couple, I am really considering him as a cash game option this week. Malik Willis ($5,000) is also looking like a super cheap cash game option as he’ll start for Tannehill.
- If you want a more proven QB, I like the prices of Tua Tagovailoa ($6,200), Kirk Cousins ($6,100), Geno Smith ($5,800), Andy Dalton ($5,500), and Daniel Jones ($5,700) while PJ Walker ($5,200) is also in play just because of his matchup with ATL.
- Derrick Henry ($8,400) and Kenneth Walker ($6,500) are the first guys I’m locking in this week, as both are about $1k too cheap based on their matchups and recent production, and I also really like the prices of Eno Benjamin ($6,000), Raheem Mostert ($5,900), Donta Foreman ($5,300), and Dameon Pierce ($6,300). If Zeke ends up out I will consider Tony Pollard ($6,100) a must play in cash games.
- At WR my favorite p/$ plays Jaylen Waddle ($6,700), Tyler Lockett ($6,500), Chris Olave ($6,000), Terry McLaurin ($6,000), Curtis Samuel ($5,300), DJ Moore ($5,300), George Pickens ($4,700), WanDale Robinson ($4,700), and Marquise Goodwin ($4,400).
- George Kittle ($5,700) only went up $400 in salary after putting up over 21 FP last week, and even though he has a tougher matchup with the Rams this week, he is still my favorite p/$ option at TE. Pat Freiermuth ($3,900) is my next favorite option at TE, having seen 9 targets in two of his last three games while Dallas Goedert ($5,000), TJ Hockenson ($4,900), Kyle Pitts ($4,200), and Mike Gesicki ($3,800) are other value options to consider.
- For defense, I will be using the Cowboys ($4,000) mostly along with the Eagles ($3,900), Titans ($3,600), Patriots ($3,000), and Panthers ($2,800).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.
Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn