NFL Grind Down: Monday/Thursday

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Indianapolis Colts Tennessee Titans
Article Image Article Image
Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Spread Total Proj.Pts
+7.5 48 20.25 -7.5 48 27.75
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 19.4 22 22 17 Offense 22.0 14 28 9
Opp. Defense 0.0 0 0 0 Opp. Defense 31.8 30 29 15
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Tennessee Titans 28 16 27 7 Indianapolis Colts 29 22 23 26
Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards Rec. Stats Targets Receptions TDs Yards
Hilton 37 24 1 466 Matthews 38 20 1 284
Moncrief 21 11 1 174 Decker 26 16 0 138
Aiken 24 8 0 69 Taylor 8 5 0 72
Doyle 23 17 0 163 Walker 31 21 0 244

Notable injuries and suspensions: Marcus Mariota WILL PLAY

IND Matchup Rating: 7.0
TEN Matchup Rating: 7.0

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback: If you are playing the prime time Sunday/Monday slate, this is definitely the game you want to target heavily, if for no other reason than the Sunday night game looks to be an awful mess without a ton of offensive potential. Jacoby Brissett may not be a refined NFL signal-caller at this point, but he is a serviceable option that provides some DFS upside with his ability to use his legs. The Titans also possess a below average defense against the pass, despite the fact that they held Jay Cutler in check last week. They rank among the bottom ten teams in the league in most pass defense metrics, so this is a nice matchup for Brissett. I don’t love rookie quarterbacks on the road in prime time games, but Brissett has already had that experience once with a road game in Seattle. You can very easily pass on him for the full slates, but Brissett is in play for the prime time offerings.

Running Backs: I don’t play Frank Gore, so he is off the table for me. The guy you really want to keep an eye on here is Marlon Mack. In my opinion, he is clearly the most talented running back in Indianapolis, and the team needs to start giving him more snaps on a weekly basis. He parlayed nine carries into 91 yards and a score last week against the 49ers, and I think he is very much a live GPP option on the prime time slates. Don’t sleep on Mack, especially in the long term. He should be getting at least 50% of the snaps sooner rather than later.

Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton has exploded with a pair of 150+ yard receiving games over his last three, and he seems to be developing a very nice rapport with his new quarterback. As long as he keeps this pace up, he is back in the conversation as a top ten receiver on a weekly basis. That is especially true in a favorable matchup against Tennessee, so fire him up with confidence again this week. Tennessee has been particularly bad against non-elite wide receivers this year, so perhaps this is a sneaky spot for Kamar Aiken or Donte Moncrief to do some damage. Aiken has really seen his snap count rise over the last two games. You can’t really go wrong with this group, especially on the shorter slates.

The Takeaway: I like the Colts as a sneaky offense to target this week, especially on the shorter slates. Jacoby Brissett is a viable QB option on those slates, while Hilton, Aiken, and Moncrief are all viable WR options. Hilton obviously has the upside, but the other two can be used as values. If you want a dart throw GPP play of the week, Marlon Mack is on his way to increased workloads moving forward.

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback: The viability of this position obviously depends on the health of Marcus Mariota. As of Thursday morning, it sounds like he is trending toward playing. The fact that he has until Monday to get ready is also a nice bonus, though I don’t think you can risk plugging him in for full week slates. If he ends up getting ruled out at some point on Monday, you really don’t have much in the way of viable pivot options. Keep an eye on this situation as we hit the weekend, and I will post an update here when I know more. It’s a good matchup, and Mariota will be a fine GPP option if he’s cleared to play and feels anywhere close to 100%.

MONDAY UPDATE – Mariota will play on Monday and is certainly worth a look on a two-game slate.

Running Backs: Just when it looked like this backfield was about to turn into a messy time share, DeMarco Murray went out and saw 80+% of the snaps last week. He didn’t really do all that much with them, and the Titans predictably struggled offensively with Matt Cassel under center, but the snaps were nice to see. The Colts have a below average defense all around, making Murray an interesting buy low candidate here in Week 6. He’s behind only C.J. Anderson for me on the Sunday/Monday night slate, and he is a strong play in all contest formats. Derrick Henry is no longer an option as long as Murray is healthy, provided that the snap counts do not change unexpectedly.

Pass Catchers: Perhaps this will be the first breakout game of the year for Delanie Walker. He has been conspicuously quiet this season, but I like the odds of a breakout game against a Colts defense that has really struggled to contain tight ends so far this year. In fact, you can say the “conspicuously quiet” bit about all of the Titans’ receivers so far this year. Eric Decker and Rishard Matthews are still playing on healthy doses of snaps, and either one of them could be in for a solid day, too. Walker is my favorite of the three, and he is my favorite tight end option on the prime time slates.

The Takeaway: Keep an eye on the status of Marcus Mariota. If he plays, the entire Tennessee offense gets an upgrade. I like Delanie Walker and DeMarco Murray as fantasy options this week, while Eric Decker and Rishard Matthews are reasonable low cost options on the prime time slates. Again, a lot of this hinges on Mariota’s status, so monitor that accordingly. This isn’t the most exciting prime time week, with ugly games on both Sunday and Monday night.

Thursday Night Quick Hits

This should be a fun Thursday game between the Chiefs and Raiders, with both teams coming off tough losses on Sunday. Here are a few quick notes on that game if you are playing the Monday/Thursday slate.

1) Is regression finally setting in for Alex Smith? He had a terrible first half against the Steelers, but I am not going to be overly concerned over one poor performance in a tough matchup. He should rebound against a poor Raiders defense that hasn’t shown much ability all season.

2) On sites where Derek Carr remains cheap, he is certainly worth a look as well. I don’t often target quarterbacks against the Chiefs, but we need to relax our standards a bit on a two game slate. The Chiefs rank in the middle of the pack in DVOA against the pass in 2017.

3) Marshawn Lynch hasn’t topped 13 carries since Week 1 and has just four receptions on the year. That kind of volume makes him a tough sell in DFS. I’ll pass despite the favorable matchup.

4) If you are looking for a running back in this game, Kareem Hunt is obviously your man. His slow starts to games are a bit odd, but he always seems to get there by the time the game is done. He has topped 100 scrimmage yards in every game and is solidly involved in the passing game, too. He’s the safest play from this game by a wide margin.

5) The Raiders rank 31st in DVOA against #1 wide receivers, so fire up Tyreek Hill with confidence. They do rank inside the top 12 against tight ends, but Travis Kelce is clearly the most talented tight end on the slate.

6) Amari Cooper continues to disappoint, while Michael Crabtree racks up a weekly touchdown at seemingly low ownership week in and week out. Will we ever learn our lesson? I am guilty of this as well, as I have played far too much Cooper for my own good. Both are reasonable GPP options, but Crabtree is your safer option these days. Jared Cook is a decent play if you want to go cheaper at the tight end spot.

7) I don’t have a strong take on defense on this two game slate. It’s all going to come down to what team gets the defensive or special teams touchdown. I lean toward Kansas City in that realm, but defense is certainly a spot that you can fill in last.

8) If you are looking for punt plays, they are better from the Monday night game than the Thursday game. The likes of Marlon Mack, Eric Decker, and even Donte Moncrief and/or Kamar Aiken grade out better than a lot of the cheaper players in this game.


Article Image

About the Author

stlcardinals84
Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84)

Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84) is a longtime RotoGrinders contributor and show host. He’s appeared in numerous Live Finals, has logged countless 6-figure wins in a host of different sports (including 5 in PGA), and is a former DFS Writer of the Year Nominee by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can find Justin’s ‘Covering The Bases’ series on weekends during the MLB season. He is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at our sister site, ScoresAndOdds, and is a co-host on the RotoGrinders Game Night show on SiriusXM. Follow Justin on Twitter – @stlcardinals84