NFL Grind Down: Week 12 - Page Two
| Carolina Panthers | New York Jets | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 39.5 | 22 | 4.5 | 39.5 | 17.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.3 | 17 | 23 | 7 | Offense | 20.1 | 21 | 22 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.2 | 16 | 17 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 18.0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 20 | 11 | 23 | 25 | Carolina Panthers | 4 | 4 | 11 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Funchess | 72 | 43 | 5 | 535 | Anderson | 64 | 35 | 5 | 568 | |
| Shepard | 27 | 14 | 1 | 173 | Kearse | 55 | 35 | 4 | 415 | |
| Clay | 7 | 2 | 0 | 33 | Stewart | 9 | 5 | 0 | 36 | |
| Olsen | 6 | 3 | 0 | 28 | Seferian-Jenkins | 50 | 39 | 3 | 288 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Matt Forte (NYJ RB) – Questionable (Knee)
CAR Matchup Rating: 5.5
NYJ Matchup Rating: 3.5
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: The Panthers check in as road favorites in this game, with momentum building after their big Monday night win against the Dolphins two weeks ago. They should be ready to go coming off the bye week, and Cam Newton has found his fantasy ceiling again. He has been more effective in the passing game of late, and he has also been more effective with his legs. The Jets have a decent, but not great, defense, and it’s not one that we necessarily need to avoid. While Newton isn’t the safest quarterback play on the board in Week 12, he is definitely a top five play in terms of upside. Give him a look with your GPP rosters.
Running Backs: Jonathan Stewart came out of nowhere to post a 110 yard rushing performance against the Dolphins in Carolina’s last game, but don’t chase the one good game from him. A lot of players have season highs against the Dolphins these days. Stewart had previously been ineffective to the point that Christian McCaffrey was getting more carries on the ground. That didn’t happen in the last game with Stewart running well, but it is certainly a possibility. The Jets rate better defensively against the run than the pass, so Stewart is off my radar completely. You can always make a case for McCaffrey in full PPR formats, but he falls outside my top ten this week. There are better running games to target.
Pass Catchers: The big news story here is that Greg Olsen is expected to return for the Panthers. He is practicing in full this week and will be a reasonable tight end option right out of the gate. This could be the only time to buy low, especially on DraftKings, where he is priced at a meager $4,800. The Jets have done well against tight ends this year, but Olsen is as matchup-proof as they come and should be well rested. His return is a slight downgrade for Devin Funchess, but Funchess remains the WR #1 for a team that should be able to move the ball. Funchess scored twice in the second half against the Dolphins in the last game and is still a reasonable option. Nobody else is really in play here outside of McCaffrey, who I discussed above.
The Takeaway: Carolina carries some appeal as road favorites against the Jets, with Cam Newton leading the way for his upside at quarterback. Greg Olsen is a sneaky tight end target in his first game back, and Devin Funchess still carries some appeal against a relatively weak pass defense. I am off the running game this week, as lightning is not going to strike twice in a row for Jonathan Stewart. However, you could potentially target Christian McCaffrey in full PPR formats.
New York Jets
Quarterback: The Jets draw a difficult matchup here against a Panthers defense that quietly ranks inside the top ten in DVOA against both the run and the pass. Josh McCown has been solid at times this season, but he has struggled a bit over the last few games. Even though the Jets are coming off a bye, which is extremely valuable at this time of the season, McCown is not on my fantasy radar in a difficult matchup.
Running Backs: Matt Forte was limited in practice on Wednesday, and it sounds like he has a real chance to return this week. If he is back, you could potentially make a case for him as a cheap option given the fact that Bilal Powell and Elijah McGuire struggled in his absence two weeks ago. However, this is a tough matchup against a Panthers rush defense that is only allowing 81 rushing yards per game. That is the third best mark in the NFL. I will likely leave this situation alone in all formats.
Pass Catchers: There are two clear-cut top targets in this passing game, with those being Robby Anderson at wide receiver and Austin Seferian-Jenkins at tight end. They combined for 16 targets in the last game, and Anderson found the end zone for the fourth straight contest. Both players are on the map as affordable targets in the passing game, and they carry more appeal if the Jets are forced to play from behind. Outside of Anderson and Seferian-Jenkins, I don’t have any interest here.
The Takeaway: You can certainly fade the entire Jets team in this game and likely be fine, and the Panthers are a reasonable choice as a defensive selection. If you do choose to get some exposure to the Jets, Robby Anderson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are the top choices.
| Chicago Bears | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5 | 44 | 15.25 | -13.5 | 44 | 28.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.7 | 28 | 31 | 9 | Offense | 31.4 | 2 | 12 | 4 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.8 | 7 | 22 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 22.1 | 15 | 11 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 13 | 3 | 20 | 19 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 18 | 16 | 6 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Inman | 17 | 11 | 0 | 140 | Jeffery | 80 | 38 | 6 | 567 | |
| Wright | 46 | 29 | 1 | 330 | Agholor | 47 | 30 | 5 | 426 | |
| Bellamy | 24 | 12 | 1 | 171 | Smith | 34 | 18 | 2 | 249 | |
| Sims | 18 | 9 | 1 | 113 | Ertz | 69 | 45 | 6 | 536 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Dontrelle Inman (CHI WR) – Questionable (Groin)
CHI Matchup Rating: 2.5
PHI Matchup Rating: 6.5
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: The Bears have looked a little more respectable offensively in recent weeks, but they have a tough road date with the Eagles this week. Philadelphia ranks inside the top six in DVOA against both the run and the pass, and this game will be an uphill climb for the Bears. Mitchell Trubisky is averaging just 165 passing yards per game in his six NFL starts, with just four touchdown passes to his name. This remains a run-first team, and there’s no need to even consider Trubisky on a full Sunday slate of games.
Running Backs: Jordan Howard is an intriguing fantasy option in games in which the Bears can stay competitive for the whole contest. He carries more risk in games where the Bears fall behind by a lot, as Howard is one of the least effective pass catching running backs in the league. Howard did run for 125 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries last week, but he’s almost impossible to trust in a contest where the Bears are two touchdown underdogs. Wait for a better matchup before targeting Howard again.
Pass Catchers: Dontrelle Inman has taken over the de facto top wide receiver job in Chicago, but that doesn’t really make him a top tier fantasy option. Nobody on the Bears saw more than six targets last week. They don’t throw it a ton, and when they do, they tend to spread the ball around. You can make a case for Inman as a cheap play, but he’s by no means near the top of this week’s list of wide receiver targets. However, there could be more appeal if the Bears do happen to fall way behind in the contest. Outside of Inman, there’s nobody with a rock solid role, and the rest of the group is best left avoided.
The Takeaway: Dontrelle Inman has some low end appeal as a WR #3/FLEX option, but he’s nothing more than that. I have no interest in any other Bears players in a game where they are massive underdogs. The Eagles defense is a strong play at home here.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: News Flash: Carson Wentz is still pretty good. This Eagles team is fun to watch, and Wentz and the offense turned on the jets in the second half against the Cowboys on Sunday night after a slow start. Wentz ranks near the top of the NFL leaderboard in most statistical categories, and he still leads the league in touchdown passes with 25. The Bears don’t have a poor pass defense, and they will try to shorten this game, but Wentz remains a solid fantasy option. He wouldn’t make my lineup this week if I was just firing a single squad, but I will certainly have some exposure if multi-entering GPP contests. He’s simply better than a lot of people give him credit for. Wentz is a top five quarterback in this offensive system.
Running Backs: In what qualifies as a bit of a surprise, Jay Ajayi played on just 13 offensive snaps against the Cowboys. He did rush for 91 yards on just seven carries, and he added a ten yard catch, which means he topped 100 yards from scrimmage on those 13 offensive snaps. That is impressive! However, as Ajayi continues to fit himself into a new offensive scheme, there remains plenty of risk. Corey Clement and LeGarrette Blount are still in the mix, and this situation is a mess at the moment. I will avoid the trio until we see how things shake out with an additional week of data.
Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery played through a questionable tag last week and scored a touchdown on four catches for 67 yards against the Cowboys. He hasn’t had many good matchups this year, and that trend continues against a Bears pass defense that ranks a respectable 12th in DVOA in that department. However, the Bears do rank just 26th in DVOA against number one wide receivers. You can play whatever angle suits you, but I’ll side with some Jeffery exposure, especially on my GPP teams that include Wentz. Otherwise, Zach Ertz checks in as the most reliable pass catcher for the Eagles. He caught just two passes for eight yards last week after missing a game due to injury, so his recent performance has been quiet. Nelson Agholor and Torrey Smith aren’t consistent enough to warrant consideration in the average matchup.
The Takeaway: The Eagles keep rolling along, but this isn’t necessarily the best matchup for the offense despite the fact that the Eagles are almost 14 point favorites. The running game is tough to peg with three players involved, and the Bears have been decent against the pass. You can still fire up some Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery, and Zach Ertz, but the Eagles aren’t a core team to target in Week 12. They will likely win this game easily, but I don’t think we are going to see a 40+ point offensive performance. This profiles as a boring 24-10 type of football game, in my opinion.
| Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 43 | 25 | 7 | 43 | 18 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.4 | 11 | 2 | 22 | Offense | 17.4 | 26 | 15 | 21 | |
| Opp. Defense | Opp. Defense | 19.9 | 10 | 13 | 9 | |||||
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 29 | 32 | 22 | 7 | Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 5 | 13 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Baldwin | 85 | 56 | 4 | 673 | Goodwin | 56 | 23 | 1 | 500 | |
| Richardson | 49 | 31 | 5 | 514 | Robinson | 36 | 13 | 1 | 198 | |
| Lockett | 54 | 33 | 0 | 408 | Bourne | 13 | 5 | 0 | 81 | |
| Graham | 73 | 46 | 7 | 413 | Celek | 19 | 11 | 2 | 141 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jimmy Graham (SEA TE) – Ankle
SEA Matchup Rating: 7.0
SF Matchup Rating: 3.5
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: The Seahawks draw a favorable matchup here against a 49ers team that should not pose much of a threat. Seattle likely got a wake up call with a home loss to the Falcons on Monday, but this should provide a spot for them to get back on track against a team that has just one win on the season. Russell Wilson accounts for virtually all of the Seattle offensive production these days, as he almost always ends up as one of the leading rushers on a weekly basis. In a favorable matchup, Wilson could very well be projected as the top quarterback on a point per dollar basis. Fire him up with confidence in all formats.
Running Backs: Seattle hasn’t had a running back go over 60 yards rushing since the now injured Chris Carson did so in Week 2 against these same 49ers. This unit is simply a disaster at this point, and it is impossible to trust anyone even in a favorable matchup. Russell Wilson has led the team in rushing in three of the last four weeks. Move along.
Pass Catchers: San Francisco ranks just 30th in DVOA against the pass, and you will likely see Seattle put the ball in the hands of Russell Wilson quite a bit in this game. Although Wilson didn’t have a great game in the first meeting between these two teams, he is playing much better football right now. I expect a much better game in this one. San Francisco has been very good against tight ends this year, so I am not all that interested in Jimmy Graham. The wide receiver trio of Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, and Paul Richardson is definitely in play, though. Richardson carries some sneaky upside, while Baldwin is your consistent option. However, there’s reason to target all of them in this favorable spot.
The Takeaway: With the Seahawks being road favorites and lacking any semblance of a running game, fire up the passing game options with confidence. Russell Wilson is a top option at quarterback this week, while you can consider his passing game weapons as well. Jimmy Graham is off my board in a difficult matchup for a tight end, but the wide receivers are strong selections.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: The 49ers are sticking with C.J. Beathard as their starting quarterback coming out of the bye, which is no surprise after he accounted for three touchdowns against the Giants in their first win of the season two weeks ago. Jimmy Garoppolo will still likely take over at some point, but Beathard is the man for now. He does carry some interesting fantasy upside, but don’t expect him to be as good as he was in the last game. However, this isn’t as bad of a matchup as it appears on paper. The Seattle secondary is missing both starting safety Kam Chancellor and top corner Richard Sherman, and they gave up 34 points to the Falcons on Monday. With this also being a short week for Seattle, there is some merit to using Beathard coming out of a bye. He’s not my first choice on quarterback, but Beathard is on the value radar.
Running Backs: Carlos Hyde continues to see a healthy amount of snaps in this offense, and he tends to excel in good matchups while struggling in poor ones. The Seattle defense has been stronger against the pass than against the run for much of this year, but that has flipped lately with all the injuries in the secondary. The rush defense has actually been much better in recent weeks. However, Beathard does like dumping the ball off to Hyde out of the backfield, so Hyde can add some value in PPR formats with his suddenly improved receiving ability. As is the case with Beathard, Hyde is not my first choice this week, but I won’t completely write him off, either.
Pass Catchers: This group is a bit of a wild card with top wide receiver Pierre Garcon out for the season and top tight end George Kittle also banged up. I wouldn’t fully trust anyone against the Seahawks, but Marquise Goodwin is certainly capable of catching a long pass. His floor is also zero, so he is about as boom or bust as they come, as he showed in the last game with just one catch — but it was for an 83 yard touchdown. The other receivers are best left avoided.
The Takeaway: The most intriguing options here are Beathard and Hyde, but it’s tough to trust anyone in the pass catching corps. If playing Beathard at quarterback in a GPP, I would likely play him without pairing him with a pass catcher (unless you want to pair him with Hyde, which is a reasonable course of action). This isn’t as fearful of a matchup for the passing game as it would have been a few weeks ago.
| New Orleans Saints | Los Angeles Rams | |||||||||
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| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 53.5 | 25.5 | -2.5 | 53.5 | 28 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.8 | 3 | 9 | 3 | Offense | 32.9 | 1 | 8 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.6 | 6 | 9 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 8 | 10 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5 | 29 | 7 | 12 | New Orleans Saints | 15 | 15 | 9 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 94 | 65 | 2 | 753 | Watkins | 38 | 24 | 4 | 408 | |
| Ginn | 43 | 35 | 3 | 570 | Kupp | 61 | 38 | 3 | 481 | |
| Coleman | 26 | 16 | 3 | 288 | Austin | 13 | 8 | 0 | 48 | |
| Hill | 10 | 9 | 1 | 62 | Higbee | 38 | 18 | 1 | 214 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Marshon Lattimore (NO CB) – Out (Ankle) / Ken Crawley (NO CB) – Out (Abdomen) / Robert Woods (LAR WR) – Out (Shoulder)
NO Matchup Rating: 7.0
LAR Matchup Rating: 7.5
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: This game has some of the most intriguing DFS potential of the week. Even though the Rams possess a solid defense, they showed some cracks against the Vikings a week ago, and Drew Brees is certainly capable of a big game against any defense. There are some red flags, though. We generally don’t love Brees as much on the road, and the Rams still rank third in the league in DVOA against the pass. Thanks to those red flags, Brees is not my favorite high-end quarterback option this week. I definitely prefer Brady or Wilson if spending up at the position. That said, there’s certainly potential for Brees to pay off at low ownership.
Running Backs: While the Rams have been solid against the pass this year, they are definitely weaker against the run. They have allowed ten rushing touchdowns this season and are allowing 123 rushing yards per contest. That’s a dangerous combination heading into a matchup against the dynamic one-two punch that is Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. I will admit that I have largely missed the boat with this breakout from these two backs, outside of the first two weeks when they were still cheap. I have been hesitant to pay the newfound premium price tags. To play the devil’s advocate role for just a minute, Kamara would have been a relative bust last week if the Redskins could have just run out the clock in the final two minutes. That didn’t happen, and Kamara picked up a tying touchdown and two point conversion in the process. I will reiterate that there will not be enough production to go around for these two players to both pay off top running back price tags, but I can’t sit here and advocate the full fade once again only to have egg on my face come Monday. If you want to play Ingram and Kamara against a below average rush defense, it definitely makes sense. These two haven’t given anyone a real reason to actively fade them over the last month.
Pass Catchers: New Orleans will likely rely on their running game once again this week, as that has been the primary catalyst to their current eight game winning streak. That gives me a little pause when it comes to targeting the pass catchers for the Saints, especially since Michael Thomas has largely been underwhelming this season. There is always upside potential here, but it doesn’t make the most sense given this week’s matchup.
The Takeaway: The Saints will likely continue to lean on their running game again this week, but the prices continue to rise for both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Fading them has cost me a lot over the last few weeks, so I humbly apologize for doubting them. Figuring out whether they can keep it rolling is one of the biggest questions of Week 12. I will likely be underweight again, but that’s largely because I am either foolish, stubborn, or both. I’ll go with both.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback: The Rams own a surprisingly high team total of 28 points this week, and I really love this spot for Jared Goff. The Saints have posted solid pass defense numbers this year, but a lot of that is due to the emergence of stud CB Marshon Lattimore. With Lattimore injured and unlikely to be available this week, you can upgrade the matchup for the Rams’ passing game significantly. This is an important game for the Rams, as they sit at 7-3 and are coming off a rough loss to the Vikings. In what should be a closely contested, high scoring game, I expect Goff to play well at home. He’s a fine mid-range QB option, especially in tournament formats.
SATURDAY UPDATE – BOTH starting corners for the Saints are out. Hello, Jared Goff!
Running Backs: Todd Gurley scored an early touchdown against the Vikings last week, but it was all downhill from there, as the Rams did not score for the rest of the game. New Orleans has struggled with their rush defense for much of the season, and Gurley should see a healthy dose of snaps and touches in a very important game. These are the types of games where teams lean on their best players, and Gurley should be no exception. Fire him up with confidence as one of the best running back options of the week.
Pass Catchers: Sammy Watkins has struggled in tough matchups this year, but this is a breakout spot with Lattimore likely out for the Saints. I love the Goff to Watkins connection in tournaments this week. It has the potential to pay off handsomely, and there is a chance that Watkins goes under-owned at a cheap price tag. Sign me up for some of that for sure. Cooper Kupp has been a consistent target all year and is also in play, and both guys get an upgrade with Robert Woods on the shelf. Again, the whole group also gets a boost with Lattimore missing on the other side, so you can throw New Orleans’ solid pass defense statistics out the window. Watkins and Kupp are both squarely in play, and I love the upside for Watkins in this game.
The Takeaway: The Rams’ skill players are all in play here, and there is a reason they have an implied team total of a healthy 28 points. From Goff to Gurley to Watkins and the other pass catchers, there should be fantasy glory to be had on all counts. Watkins is one of my favorite point per dollar plays of the week.
