NFL Grind Down: Week 12
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 48 | 19 | -10 | 48 | 29 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.2 | 22 | 5 | 28 | Offense | 21.9 | 15 | 10 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 13 | 7 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 22.8 | 17 | 30 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 17 | 12 | 6 | 13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 25 | 20 | 31 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Evans | 84 | 45 | 4 | 624 | Jones | 86 | 54 | 1 | 786 | |
| Jackson | 68 | 35 | 3 | 532 | Sanu | 52 | 37 | 4 | 388 | |
| Humphries | 51 | 35 | 0 | 339 | Gabriel | 38 | 25 | 1 | 310 | |
| Howard | 26 | 17 | 4 | 279 | Hooper | 43 | 33 | 3 | 379 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jameis Winston (TB QB) – Out (Shoulder) / Devonta Freeman (ATL RB) – Out (Concussion)
TB Matchup Rating: 4.0
ATL Matchup Rating: 7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: Tampa Bay draws a difficult road matchup against the Falcons here, and they check in as very large ten point underdogs. While Ryan Fitzpatrick played fairly well last week against the Dolphins, throwing for 275 yards and a pair of touchdowns, I wouldn’t expect the same success in this game. The Falcons have looked better of late and have won their last two games, and they have registered 11 total sacks as a team over the past two games. If they can get pressure on Fitzpatrick, the defense could very well force quite a few mistakes. If you are looking for a value quarterback this week, it makes more sense to gravitate toward somebody else.
Running Backs: The snap count for Doug Martin still leaves a bit to be desired, and he only played on 56% of the snaps last week in a game that the Bucs led comfortably for the most part. That’s not a great sign, and the fact that they are huge underdogs this week renders Martin essentially unplayable. Charles Sims should see some extra work if the game flow goes as expected, but he’s nothing more than an extremely risky punt play. That feels like it’s a little too cute, so I will simply pass on the Tampa Bay backfield here, even though the Falcons have struggled more against the run this season.
Pass Catchers: He keeps knocking on the door of a big game, but we still haven’t seen Mike Evans top 100 yards in a game this season. You could have won quite a bit of money if you would have predicted that back in Week 1. Evans did grab five balls for 90 yards in last week’s win, but he had a couple of suspect drops and just doesn’t look quite right at the moment. Injuries to both Evans and starting quarterback Jameis Winston have really halted the momentum for this pass offense. Evans isn’t a priority spend in DFS this week, but the game flow could lead to a healthy dose of targets. You can make the same case for DeSean Jackson, who managed to find the end zone last week. Atlanta has ranked below average against tight ends this year, so you could give Cameron Brate a look, but he has really been struggling lately. O.J. Howard is seeing a similar amount of snaps and found the end zone against Miami, though Tampa Bay does run a lot of two tight end sets. Both are risk/reward plays for GPP use only.
The Takeaway: There isn’t a single must play in this group, as Tampa Bay holds a team total under 20 points in this game. The pass catchers could be decent targets if the Bucs are forced to play catch up, but I don’t want to get in the business of predicting a blowout. I will have very limited exposure to this squad in my Week 12 DFS contests.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: In a strange twist of events, the Falcons have won their last two games despite getting just 410 passing yards from Matt Ryan in those games combined. In the past, Ryan would put up numbers like that in a single game. As I have written a few times this year, Ryan simply isn’t the MVP-caliber player that we saw a year ago. Part of it is likely that he played over his head last year, but injuries and the struggles of some other players (looking at you, Julio Jones) have hurt Ryan a good bit, too. Tampa Bay ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass this year, and they have allowed 276 passing yards per game, so this is a get right spot for Ryan at home. The fact that Atlanta is such a huge favorite is a worry, but Ryan is on the board of potential quarterback plays here.
Running Backs: Devonta Freeman is still not practicing as of Wednesday, so it stands to reason that he is likely not going to get cleared from his concussion in time to play this week. That will put Tevin Coleman in line for another start and a heavy workload, and he has played on nearly 70% of the snaps over the last two weeks. That is significantly higher than his usual ratio when Freeman is active. Coleman was not all that effective on Monday against the Seahawks, amassing just 43 yards on 20 carries. He salvaged his day with a touchdown in the early going, but the matchup would be a little better here in a home game with likely positive game flow. Keep an eye on Freeman’s status; if he is out again, fire up Coleman as a solid mid-range running back option.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Freeman is out, so the analysis above holds.
Pass Catchers: Is this the Julio Jones game? As I wrote last week, I don’t want to try and predict that at this point, as he has failed us all year long. That gives us one of those receivers on each side of this game. Jones still has just one touchdown on the season, and he will likely see a lot of top corner Brent Grimes in coverage. As is the case with Evans on the other side of this game, Jones simply doesn’t seem like a priority that you need to spend on. Mohamed Sanu did catch a touchdown against the Seahawks on Monday, but he saw just three targets in the game. Jones is obviously the logical pairing with Matt Ryan if you are looking to do a QB/WR stack in a GPP, but this doesn’t feel like a great stacking spot. If Atlanta is able to get a lead, you might not see a ton of pass attempts in the second half.
The Takeaway: Atlanta has some appeal here, but between the inconsistent nature of their offense this year combined with the fact that they are such heavy favorites in this game, it’s hard to get super excited. Tevin Coleman is a solid mid-range running back if Devonta Freeman misses another game, while Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are reasonable options at their positions. Mohamed Sanu can be considered as a low-end WR option, but he’s more of a cash game play than a GPP upside selection.
| Cleveland Browns | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 38.5 | 15.25 | -8 | 38.5 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.9 | 31 | 24 | 17 | Offense | 16.6 | 30 | 25 | 32 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.9 | 10 | 6 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 25.9 | 27 | 14 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11 | 21 | 4 | 23 | Cleveland Browns | 21 | 8 | 8 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Coleman | 24 | 12 | 1 | 142 | Green | 83 | 48 | 6 | 743 | |
| Louis | 55 | 26 | 0 | 322 | LaFell | 54 | 34 | 2 | 340 | |
| Higgins | 37 | 18 | 0 | 184 | Malone | 9 | 4 | 1 | 54 | |
| DeValve | 41 | 22 | 1 | 269 | Kroft | 38 | 28 | 4 | 303 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
CLE Matchup Rating: 2.5
CIN Matchup Rating: 6.5
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: Cleveland comes into this game with the lowest implied team total of the week at just 15 points. DeShone Kizer has been in and out of the lineup all year, which seems to be messing with his ability to develop, but the fact of the matter is that he simply isn’t any good right now. He committed four turnovers last week and has perhaps the ugliest quarterbacking numbers in the entire league. He is not a fantasy option in a road game against any team these days.
Running Backs: The snap count remains almost evenly split between Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson, but this does not profile as a Crowell game. Cleveland is more than a touchdown underdog in this game, and you will likely see an aerial focused attack come the second half. Johnson carries some appeal in full PPR formats because of that, but he is by no means a must play. There’s not a ton of appeal with this group.
Pass Catchers: Corey Coleman is back in action, and he put up a solid 6/80 line on 11 targets against a good Jaguars secondary last week. He is clearly the #1 target for Kizer, and Coleman is affordably priced at $5,800 on FanDuel, $4,300 on DraftKings, and $7,700 on FantasyDraft. He can be used as a viable wide receiver option at those prices. However, nobody else is even on the DFS radar here.
The Takeaway: There is very little to like about this Browns team, but you can make a case for Corey Coleman at wide receiver, especially in GPP formats. He is the clear-cut top receiving option for the Browns and is coming off a solid performance in Week 11. Outside of Coleman, the only interesting play from this side of the game is the Bengals defense. They carry some substantial upside against a turnover-prone young quarterback.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: Everyone gets a fantasy upgrade against the Browns, but how much can we really love the Bengals? Andy Dalton has been relatively disappointing this year, especially after he earned some accolades heading into the season. Dalton has just one 300 yard game to his credit this year, and Marvin Lewis won’t make him throw the ball 40 times if it’s not necessary. It’s probably not going to be necessary against the Browns, but it is worth noting that Cleveland has one of the best rush defenses in the league. The Bengals will have to throw it early in this game, and then it just becomes a matter of the game staying close. Dalton is on the value quarterback radar if you need it, but don’t go expecting miracles just because he’s facing the Browns. The ceiling simply isn’t all that high.
Running Backs: Even though the game flow will likely be positive here, it’s difficult to trust Joe Mixon. He has been underwhelming on the ground this year, and Cleveland quietly owns a stout rush defense. Cleveland is permitting just 3.1 yards per carry this year, which is the best mark in the entire NFL. That is impressive for a team that finds itself trailing by a lot almost every week. This is not the week to bank on a breakout from Cincinnati’s running game.
Pass Catchers: Although the Browns do not have a good pass defense, they do have one good corner in Jason McCourty, who will likely be tasked with covering A.J. Green in this one. I generally avoid receivers that will see McCourty’s coverage, but Green is about as matchup-proof as a wide receiver gets. He found the end zone against a tough Broncos defense last week and obviously has a strong chance of doing that again. The targets will certainly be there, as the rest of Cincinnati’s group of wide receivers is underwhelming at best. Cleveland ranks last in the league in DVOA against tight ends, so Tyler Kroft makes some sense as a value play at tight end, assuming he is not limited by a hand injury that he suffered last week.
The Takeaway: Cleveland’s defense is more vulnerable through the air than on the ground, so give Cincinnati’s passing game a long look. It’s tough to trust Andy Dalton at this point, but this will be the best matchup he sees all season. It doesn’t get much better than a home date with the Browns. Even though A.J. Green will likely draw Jason McCourty in coverage, Green is a strong high-end WR selection. The rest of Cincinnati’s pass catchers are impossible to trust, though Tyler Kroft has the best matchup on the team, making him a solid value pick on this slate.
| Tennessee Titans | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.8 | 13 | 27 | 8 | Offense | 17.9 | 25 | 21 | 24 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.0 | 32 | 31 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 25.3 | 24 | 19 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 26 | 26 | 27 | 22 | Tennessee Titans | 22 | 9 | 28 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 68 | 41 | 3 | 626 | Hilton | 69 | 36 | 3 | 725 | |
| Decker | 47 | 31 | 1 | 303 | Moncrief | 36 | 20 | 2 | 338 | |
| Davis | 35 | 16 | 0 | 176 | Aiken | 38 | 14 | 0 | 131 | |
| Walker | 72 | 49 | 0 | 550 | Doyle | 69 | 52 | 2 | 450 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Rishard Matthews (TEN WR) – Questionable (Hamstring)
TEN Matchup Rating: 6.5
IND Matchup Rating: 5.0
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Tennessee draws a fairly healthy team total here against a weak Colts defense, and this could be the potential wake up spot for the offense. They have had a few extra days to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday a week ago, and Marcus Mariota has the talent to go off at any point. If you have been waiting for a spot to buy low on the Tennessee signal-caller, this could be the one. Indianapolis ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass and has very little talent in the secondary. With Mariota’s ability to run, his fantasy upside is also enhanced. His 2017 performance to date adds a bit of risk to the selection, but Mariota is a great option this week. This could be the end of the buy low window.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray continues to dominate the snaps in the backfield, logging rates of 71%, 74%, and 80% over the last three weeks. Even though he may be aging and broken down, he is the unquestioned starter in this backfield. His DFS price tag also remains very cheap, making him a solid mid-range option at the running back position. If you aren’t playing Mariota at the quarterback position, Murray is a logical selection from this offense.
Pass Catchers: If you aren’t gathering the theme by now, I really like the Tennessee offense this week. The hardest question to answer is who to target at receiver, as the production is all over the place with this group. The emergence of Corey Davis has rendered Eric Decker irrelevant, as Decker’s snaps have fallen off the map over the last few weeks. Decker is nowhere near the DFS radar at this point. The talented Davis is always the guy that I gravitate toward from this group, but his production has been very spotty. Rishard Matthews is the other starter and has been the more consistent option. I would lean toward playing Matthews in cash games and Davis in tournaments, and you can stack up either guy with Mariota if you are playing the GPP stack approach. Delanie Walker is a reasonable tight end selection in the mid-range as well.
SATURDAY UPDATE – There is some concern over Matthews’ status with an injury. If he is out for this game, give Davis a massive upgrade.
The Takeaway: Most of my rosters will have a piece of the Tennessee offense in Week 12. They draw a favorable matchup against the Colts, and for a road team they have a healthy 24 point team total. Fire up your Titans this week.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Although he has flashed some upside on a few occasions, it has been a bumpy ride for Jacoby Brissett in his first season. The Colts are coming off a bye week, but Brissett has not yet been cleared from the concussion protocol. Even in a favorable matchup, he is not a fantasy option. If I want a quarterback from this game, I will pay the extra few dollars for Mariota. On FantasyDraft, there is only a $100 difference between the two, which makes the decision a slam dunk. Even on FanDuel and DraftKings, it’s not enough savings to entice me to take Brissett here.
Running Backs: Frank Gore continues to play on more snaps than the younger, more explosive Marlon Mack. In what amounts to a 50/50 time share, both guys are extremely risky fantasy options. I also expect the Colts to fall behind in this game, so I will happily avoid this mess of a backfield. Let’s move along.
Pass Catchers: After exploding with an 8/175/2 line against the Steelers in Week 9, T.Y. Hilton had a quiet day heading into the Indianapolis bye week. He has been inconsistent all year long, primarily due to the play at the quarterback position. Hilton’s talent and ability to make big plays gives him upside on a weekly basis, and he is certainly in play for tournament formats in a favorable matchup against a weak Tennessee secondary. They lack a shut down corner and rank in the bottom third of the league against #1 wide receivers. I wouldn’t trust Hilton for cash games with Brissett chucking the football, but the GPP appeal is certainly there. Tennessee has had more success against tight ends, so Jack Doyle gets a slight downgrade this week. However, he did catch seven passes for 50 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting between these teams. Nobody else in this group of pass catchers is even worth discussing at this point. A very high percentage of the targets will run through Hilton and Doyle.
The Takeaway: If you are searching for fantasy options in this game, the Tennessee side definitely has more appeal. Should you opt for anyone from the Colts, T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle are your best bets for production. Hilton carries plenty of weekly upside, while Doyle has been playing well and had a solid game in the first meeting between these teams.
| Buffalo Bills | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.4 | 20 | 30 | 15 | Offense | 28.1 | 5 | 7 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.0 | 14 | 26 | 29 | Opp. Defense | 25.0 | 23 | 21 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 24 | 10 | 32 | 5 | Buffalo Bills | 9 | 31 | 15 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 58 | 36 | 2 | 537 | Hill | 66 | 47 | 4 | 685 | |
| Jones | 51 | 20 | 1 | 236 | Robinson | 22 | 13 | 0 | 140 | |
| Matthews | 30 | 22 | 1 | 253 | Wilson | 22 | 17 | 2 | 221 | |
| Clay | 35 | 25 | 2 | 298 | Kelce | 82 | 59 | 5 | 738 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Mike Tolbert (BUF RB) – Out (Hamstring) / Kelvin Benjamin (BUF WR) – Questionable (Knee) / Jordan Matthews (BUF WR) – Questionable (Knee) / Deonte Thompson (BUF WR) – Questionable (Ankle) / Albert Wilson (KC WR) – Questionable (Hamstring)
BUF Matchup Rating: 3.5
KC Matchup Rating: 8.0
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: The Bills get a big LOL for deciding to start Nathan Peterman last week in what could be one of the most bizarre decisions I have ever seen. He was simply over-matched, throwing five first half interceptions against a Chargers defense that isn’t all that great. Of course, now Tyrod Taylor is going to start again. The last two weeks have featured blowout losses for the Bills with the starting quarterback playing poorly in the first half and the backup playing well in garbage time. The roles were just reversed for the two weeks, with Taylor starting and Peterman relieving in Week 10 and Peterman starting and Taylor relieving in Week 11. Taylor is not a fantasy option in a difficult road matchup against the Chiefs.
Running Backs: In theory, the Bills should attempt to ride LeSean McCoy in an effort to be competitive. However, that game plan has gone right out the window in the past two games with the Bills getting shellacked in each of them. With Buffalo checking in as ten point underdogs again this week, we could see that happen for the third week in a row. As long as the game stays close, this is an enticing spot for McCoy. Kansas City ranks dead last in the league in DVOA against the run, and Orleans Darkwa found the end zone against them on Sunday. Expect a very run-heavy game plan in the first half, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see McCoy get 15 touches before halftime. If this game is competitive, this is a sneaky blow up spot for him. That’s a big if, but McCoy is a rock solid GPP option with plenty of upside. His price is still a little higher than I would like to pay in cash games.
Pass Catchers: Buffalo attempted to boost their offensive weapons via trading for Kelvin Benjamin, and now he is hurt. With the limited weapons in this group and the inconsistency at the quarterback position, there’s really no reason to get excited here. If this game is competitive, LeSean McCoy can also soak up plenty of targets in this game. Pass.
SATURDAY UPDATE – The entirety of the Buffalo passing game is questionable. That only further serves to keep these guys out of play.
The Takeaway: You know where this is going. It’s essentially McCoy or bust on this side of the game. I will have plenty of exposure to McCoy in GPPs against a weak rush defense, but there is certainly risk that Buffalo gets blown out for the third straight week. Proceed with some caution. Nobody else is worth considering outside of the Kansas City defense.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: We have seen two distinct Chiefs teams this year. First, we saw the team that jetted out to a 5-0 start and looked unstoppable. Since, we have seen an underwhelming 1-4 squad that has looked lifeless at times. The true team probably falls somewhere in the middle of those two extremes, but there has been some chatter about a possible benching for Alex Smith. That comes just a month after he was in the MVP discussion with some of those same folks. Hey, I guess we do have a “what have you done for me lately” society, right? I don’t necessarily see this as a ceiling game for Smith, with the Chiefs checking in as huge favorites and drawing a matchup against a team that has become extremely vulnerable to the run. I’ll pass on Smith this week, but the negativity toward him has been a bit over the top. The weather conditions were largely to blame for a poor showing last week.
Running Backs: This profiles as a game where we will likely see the clock move quickly, as both teams will look to run the ball a lot. The Bills have allowed 444 rushing yards and 101 points over the last two weeks, and with the Chiefs sitting as double figure favorites in this game, we could see the first breakout game from Kareem Hunt in a while. Like the rest of the offense, he has cooled considerably after a hot start, but this matchup is simply too good to completely ignore. When you combine that with the likely game flow, how can you not at least be somewhat intrigued? While Hunt does lose snaps in some passing down situations, that shouldn’t be too much of a worry in this game. I’ll fire up Hunt as a top three running back option this week, but if he can’t produce at home against the Bills, it is definitely time to be concerned.
Pass Catchers: There might not be a ton of volume here, which is a concern with the Chiefs being such large favorites. The good news is that the Buffalo defense is reeling on all fronts, and they gave up the first huge game of the year to Keenan Allen a week ago. Tyreek Hill could absolutely break a big play in this game, and he is a fine selection in GPP formats. Buffalo ranks 9th in DVOA against the tight end position, so this doesn’t set up as a week to pay the premium for Travis Kelce. DeMarcus Robinson has been playing on almost every snap lately as the #2 wide receiver, but he is clearly the fourth option in the passing game behind Hill, Kelce, and whoever is in the game at running back. He’s nothing more than an extremely risky GPP punt. I will likely stick with Hill from this group.
The Takeaway: Kansas City has a healthy team total of 28 points in this game, so we can certainly expect some offensive production. The Buffalo defense is headed in the wrong direction, and they have been giving up huge numbers on the ground. This is a get right spot for Kareem Hunt, especially with a likely positive game flow. Tyreek Hill is the other logical option, as he could certainly break a big play or two just like Keenan Allen did against this defense last week.
| Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | 47 | 15.25 | -16.5 | 47 | 31.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.2 | 32 | 29 | 30 | Offense | 28.6 | 4 | 1 | 16 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.3 | 12 | 32 | 24 | Opp. Defense | 25.4 | 25 | 15 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 31 | 24 | 30 | 18 | Miami Dolphins | 19 | 17 | 17 | 28 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 108 | 67 | 6 | 567 | Cooks | 74 | 45 | 4 | 786 | |
| Parker | 54 | 34 | 1 | 404 | Hogan | 54 | 33 | 5 | 438 | |
| Stills | 63 | 40 | 5 | 588 | Amendola | 55 | 43 | 2 | 440 | |
| Thomas | 45 | 29 | 2 | 290 | Gronkowski | 66 | 41 | 5 | 619 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jay Cutler (MIA QB) – Out (Concussion) / Martellus Bennett (NE TE) – Doubtful (Shoulder) / Chris Hogan (NE WR) – Out (Shoulder) / Danny Amendola (NE WR) – Questionable (Knee)
MIA Matchup Rating: 4.0
NE Matchup Rating: 9.0
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: Jay Cutler still isn’t practicing, and it remains to be seen if he will be cleared to play this week. Even if he is cleared, it boggles my mind that the Dolphins aren’t willing to start Matt Moore. Moore is the better quarterback of the two and has played well in relief of Cutler twice this year. His only bad game was against the Ravens on a short week, which can be excused to some degree. The game script will likely call for a very pass-heavy approach here, and the Patriots have struggled in the secondary at times. If Moore is the starter, he is very much a live GPP play as a cheap quarterback option. If Cutler starts, I really don’t have any interest.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Cutler is out, so give Moore a peek as a sneaky QB punt play.
Running Backs: I am taking a hands-off approach to the Miami backfield this week. We still have a time share between Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams, and Miami will likely be playing from behind in this contest. If that plays out, Williams is definitely the preferred play of the two. However, neither player is anywhere near a must play, and there is extreme risk with this group. Miami’s 16 point implied team total is one of the lowest of the week.
Pass Catchers: There is volume-based appeal in the Miami pass catching corps, especially with them checking in as two touchdown underdogs. Jarvis Landry logged a 6/95/1 line last week on 11 targets and should be viewed as a fine option in PPR formats like DraftKings and FantasyDraft. On FanDuel, you can upgrade Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker a bit. Stills is coming off a massive game, but he is always a boom-or-bust play, and targeting him feels a bit like chasing points. I’ll still side with Parker between the two. Even though Miami has a low team total, we could see 40+ pass attempts in this game, which helps keep this unit on the DFS radar.
The Takeaway: Miami checks in as massive underdogs in this game, meaning the only targets we can consider are in the passing game. If Jay Cutler is out this week with his concussion, Matt Moore is very much in the conversation as a tournament option. I prefer to target Jarvis Landry in full PPR formats, as he should gobble up a ton of targets in this game. DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills are also in play if you buy the argument that Miami will likely fall behind early in this contest.
New England Patriots
Quarterback: Tom Brady is locked in and rolling right now. The Dolphins are defeated and reeling. It doesn’t take much math to figure this out, and New England owns the highest implied team total of Week 12 at a massive 32 points. The only risk is New England getting out to a huge lead, limiting Brady’s need to throw the ball in the second half. However, that was essentially the case last week against the Raiders, and Brady still put up solid numbers in the second half. You can certainly consider the GPP fade and hope that the defense or running game scores a few touchdowns, but Brady is obviously a rock solid option in all formats.
Running Backs: Rex Burkhead almost predictably flopped as a chalk running back play last week, and the beat goes on with running backs on a Bill Belichick coached team. You simply can’t predict who is going to be “the guy” on a week-to-week basis with this team. Burkhead was about exhibit #125 with that theory. Exhibit #124 was Mike Gillislee, who has disappeared to inactive status after lighting up the world in Week 1. Dion Lewis seems to be the guy with the most stable workload, and he logged 88 total yards and a touchdown last week. If New England gets out to a large lead, as expected, Lewis is likely the guy to own here. Just keep in mind that nobody is a safe play from this group.
Pass Catchers: A big Rob Gronkowski week is coming at some point. He has failed as a chalk option in each of the last two games, both of which were favorable matchups for tight end production. That will likely have people scared off of him in Week 12, especially since he costs you a pretty penny. I’m definitely fine going back to the well against a bad defense. Brandin Cooks went off a week ago and is starting to get into a solid groove with Brady. Danny Amendola seems to be healthy again and had an 8/66/1 line against the Raiders in Mexico. All three passing game options are in play here, as Brady should be able to dice up the Miami secondary with relative ease.
The Takeaway: The entire offense is in play, and you can consider everyone in the passing game. The only risk with that group is the possibility that New England simply blows the game wide open early and is able to pull off the throttle in the second half. If this game happens to stay competitive, you should see a massive game from Tom Brady and company. The running game is difficult to trust, but Dion Lewis is your safest option of the group — if you can even call it that.