NFL Grind Down: Week 16 - Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
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| Denver Broncos | Oakland Raiders | |||||||||
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Denver Broncos
Notable injuries and suspensions: Harris (Out For Season – Leg)
Quarterback: I’m not touching Case Keenum on a full slate. On a Showdown slate, however, Keenum offers some appeal. The Raiders rank 31st in pass DVOA and that’s really the case to be made to playing Keenum in a Showdown game. Keenum has an ugly 15:12 touchdown to interception ratio this season and stunk up the joint back in Week 2 against these same Raiders, throwing for just 222 yards, one interception and no touchdowns. Still, Keenum did have a five-game stretch prior to last week where he didn’t throw a pick and racked up a 5:0 touchdown to interception ratio, so there is a floor there if he can limit the turnovers. You’re banking on the matchup here and that it can overcome the fact he’s Case Keenum.
Running Backs: Congrats to Phillip Lindsay making the Pro Bowl as an undrafted rookie. That’s really amazing. Lindsay was bottled up last week against the Browns, rushing 14 times for an empty 24 yards. He did catch four of six passes for 20 yards so the passing game work was encouraging, but Lindsay only played on 53% of the snaps so we’re still in a bit of a timeshare here. The matchup doesn’t get much better though, as these Raiders rank 27th in run DVOA and just let Joe Mixon run for 129 yards and two touchdowns on them last week. Lindsay is in play in all formats this week if this game is on your slate. The only case to be made against Lindsay is that Devontae Booker and Royce Freeman continue to eat up the other 40%-50% of snaps, so you’re hoping neither of them vulture the touchdowns away from Lindsay.
Pass Catchers: DaeSean Hamilton has really emerged as Keenum’s favorite receiver since Emmanuel Sanders has gone down. Hamilton saw a team-high 12 targets last week and now has 21 targets and a touchdown over the last two games. He’s my top option of the pass catchers given Keenum seems to have an affinity towards him. Tim Patrick has also come on strong, as he led the team with 65 receiving yards last week and also has 18 total targets over the past two weeks. Matt Lacosse and Courtland Sutton deserve to be mentioned based on this elite matchup, and both are viable on the Showdown slate. It’s possible that Sutton just wasn’t ready to be a #1 receiver and that he’d benefit more with Patrick and Hamilton now forcing defenses to focus on them.
The Takeaway: I’m prioritizing Phillip Lindsay in all formats as this is a prime matchup. On a Showdown slate, the passing options of DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick would be my targets, while Courtland Sutton and Matt Lacosse offer some appeal as well. Both Hamilton and Patrick have seen a boatload of targets the past two weeks and are more appealing n full-PPR sites. I never recommend Case Keenum but if you’re ever going to use him for a Showdown game, the matchup doesn’t get much better.
Oakland Raiders
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
Quarterback: It’s hard to get excited for a team that views Nathan Peterman as practice squad material. But that’s what we have here with the Raiders. I’ll admit I had some excitement for Derek Carr last week against the Bengals but he now has a tough matchup against the 3rd ranked pass DVOA from the Broncos. Chris Harris is out for the season so that helps Carr a bit, and Carr has been in good form lately as he hasn’t thrown a pick now in nine straight games while racking up a 12:0 touchdown to interception ratio during that time frame. The matchup on paper isn’t good but if you want to be contrarian in a Showdown format, stacking the Raiders side and hoping they surprise makes some sense. But that’s the only way I would use Carr this week.
Running Backs: The Raiders don’t have anything appealing here against the Broncos’ strong run defense. Doug Martin remains a touchdown-dependent back with a low floor when he’s not falling into the end zone. For example, Martin had his three-game touchdown streak broken by the Bengals and he finished with just 39 yards. Martin hasn’t topped 72 yards in a game this season so there’s a ton of risk here with his lack of pass-game work. On a full-PPR site, you’re probably better of taking shots on Jalen Richard, although his touchdown equity on this team is very low. Richard is yet to find the end zone this season although you could argue his ceiling is higher.
Pass Catchers: Jordy Nelson saw a team-high eight targets last week and has seen a total of 26 targets over his last three games, although he hasn’t found the end zone. Now the default #1 receiver, Nelson makes sense on a Showdown slate just based on his expected volume, although his touchdown upside remains limited. If you want to chase the touchdowns, Jared Cook seems like a better bet. Cook faltered last week with a 2-23-0 line off five targets, but he did have touchdowns in three straight games just awhile ago and his six touchdowns are more than double the next closest player (Nelson with three receiving touchdowns). Marcell Ateman and Seth Roberts are merely dart throws in large-field Showdown games as you’re hoping they can do something with their 60%-80% snap rates, but neither have produced big lines this season.
The Takeaway: It’s ugly from the Raiders side, with Jordy Nelson and Jared Cook the best bets to score for this team. Derek Carr is merely a contrarian Showdown option, while the running game isn’t appealing. Doug Martin is touchdown-or-bust, while Jalen Richard has yet to find the end zone this season.