NFL Grind Down: Week 3 - Monday Night Football
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
Pittsburgh Steelers
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
Quarterback: Vegas is expecting some fireworks in this game, and it’s hard to blame them. The Steelers and Bucs are both among the top third of the league in points per game to start the season, and neither team’s defense has shown an ability to stop their opponents from scoring.
I normally don’t like starting Ben Roethlisberger in road games as he averaged 10 fewer DraftKings points per game in road games last season, but this is also a Monday Night primetime game that I do expect him to get up for. It’s hard not to like Big Ben in this spot against a vulnerable defense.
Running Backs: Down 21-0 against the Chiefs, the Steelers abandoned the run game early. James Conner finished the game with just eight carries for 17 yards and a touchdown. He still found ways to contribute in the passing game by catching all five of his targets for 48 yards. I expect this game to stay close enough where Conner doesn’t get phased out, and it’s encouraging to see Conner played 89% of the team’s snaps against the Chiefs despite the early deficit. He’s firmly in-play here against the Bucs and should have a bounceback game.
Pass Catchers: What a week it’s been for the Steelers. Antonio Brown got into a Twitter war suggesting the Steelers should trade him to see how valuable he is, missed a team meeting and then had a talk with Coach Tomlin about the situation. You could argue that the Brown situation might be a squeaky wheel narrative where Roethlisberger ends up feeding AB to make him happy. This is a potential smash spot for Brown against a Bucs defense that allowed Michael Thomas to drop 16-180-1 on them in Week 1. The Bucs then proceeded to let Zach Ertz have a 11-94-0 line and Nelson Agholor to have a 8-88-1 line under the passing of Nick Foles.
After seeing just 75% of the team’s snaps in Week 1, JuJu Smith-Schuster saw his snap rate jump all the way up to 93% as he was on his way to a massive 13-121-1 line. Despite Brown seeing 17 targets last week, it was Smith-Schuster who led the team with 19 targets. Smith-Schuster is the logical pivot off Brown if you can only afford one of them, but there’s merit to trying to jam both of them in on a Showdown slate and hope they both show off their massive upsides.
Some other noteworthy observations from Week 2 – after seeing 61% of the team’s snaps in Week 1, Justin Hunter was a healthy scratch in Week 2 in favor of rookie James Washington. Washington saw 80% of the team’s snaps against the Chiefs and finished with just one 14-yard touchdown catch off five targets. The red zone look is encouraging, and so is the high volume of snaps. If Hunter is once again ruled inactive for this game, Washington makes for an interesting dart-throw.
Vance McDonald returned from injury and played on 45% of the team’s snaps. The crazy part is that Jesse James saw the other 55% and posted a massive 5-138-1 line in his limited time. This was the first time James has ever eclipsed 100 receiving yards so I don’t think it’s the best idea chasing his career game as his snap counts start to trend down.
The Takeaway: This should be a spot where Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster shine. I don’t love playing Ben Roethlisberger on the road, but he has played better in primetime games, so I can get behind him here. James Conner was phased out of Week 2’s game as the Steelers found themselves in a big hole early, but he’s firmly back in-play in what should be a close game. If Justin Hunter is ruled out, James Washington becomes an interesting dart throw play as he played a lot in three-wide sets. Meanwhile, the return of Vance McDonald didn’t phase Jesse James, who posted a career game in just 55% of the team’s snaps. I don’t think it’s wise to chase that game as McDonald’s playing time should slowly creep up as he works his way back from injury.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jameis Winston (Out – Suspended)
Quarterback: Quick, who leads the league in passing yards with 819 and is second in the NFL with eight passing touchdowns? If you guessed Ryan Fitzpatrick, you would be right (and the only reason you probably knew that is because you’re reading the quarterback section on the Bucs page and you knew I was guiding you to the answer). It’s unclear how long Fitzmagic and his magical swag is going to last, but the Steelers just let Patrick Mahomes dominate them for six touchdowns so there’s reason to believe Fitzpatrick could have success through the air here. Fitzpatrick has played so well that he’s already gaining traction to remain the team’s starter when Jameis Winston returns from his suspension.
All eyes are likely going to be on Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers’ passing attack for this game, but Fitzpatrick paired with one of his stud receivers is the contrarian route.
Running Backs: The Bucs got nothing going on the ground in Week 2, rushing 23 times for just 43 yards. Peyton Barber led the team with 16 carries for 22 yards and was almost non-existent in the passing game. Unless Barber is going to get some goal-line work and find his way into the end zone, he’s just not on my radar. Overall, this is a spot I don’t love. Negative game script could force more Jacquizz Rodgers, who did catch all three of his targets last week, but I’m more focused on the Bucs’ pass catchers than their running game.
Pass Catchers: In Week 2, Fitzpatrick found DeSean Jackson (4-129-1), O.J. Howard (3-96-1), Mike Evans (10-83-1) and Chris Godwin (5-56-1) for his four touchdowns. Howard’s 75-yard touchdown is the one I feel was most fluky, as Howard is averaging just three targets per game so far this season. Meanwhile, Jackson is thriving under Fitzpatrick and is already up to three touchdowns on the season. Both he and Mike Evans continue to soak up the targets, and I like both in this spot. I expect both to be lower owned than their counterparts Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster on the other side, so there’s merit to getting shares of one or both in a stack. Godwin has caught touchdowns in back-to-back games but continues to operate as the team’s third receiver. If you need to save salary but want exposure to the Bucs’ passing game, Godwin is the cheapest option I feel good about.
The Takeaway: The way he’s playing, I’m not going to doubt Ryan Fitzpatrick in this matchup against a poor Steelers defense. Fitzpatrick is the pivot off Ben Roethlisberger if you want to be contrarian and stack the Bucs side. I like the idea of pairing him with one of Mike Evans or DeSean Jackson. If you need a cheaper option, Chris Godwin is an option. I don’t love the Bucs’ running game, and I don’t really want to chase the O.J. Howard 75-yard touchdown.