NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 5, Saints at Eagles
In this week’s “Matchup of the Week,” some of RotoGrinders’ top NFL analysts break down a Sunday showdown between the Saints and Eagles. Vegas expects a ton of points and a relatively competitive matchup between these two teams, but where will the fantasy points come from? Our experts break it down from every angle.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
Unlike last week, when we broke down a low over/under game with sneaky upside, we are going to be using this week to explore the only high over/under game expected to remain relatively competitive, as the Saints and Eagles currently sit at an over/under of 49, with the Eagles slotted in as five-point favorites. Although I am generally someone who puts less stock in the Vegas lines than most others (or… that is, although I am generally someone who uses this information to corroborate my own research, rather than using this information as the foundation of my research), this is nevertheless important information to pay attention to – especially on a week such as this one, in which we really only have this one game that is projected to be both close and high-scoring.
If you are an Incentives member, you have already read my game-by-game thoughts on the other 13 games being played in Week 5 – but now, let’s dive into my expanded thoughts on this intriguing contest:
The starting point of our exploration of this game needs to be the run defense for both teams.
There are a couple reasons why this needs to be the starting point.
1) Each of these teams has a desire to be run-based. There is a misconception that the Eagles are a pass-heavy team, as “fast-paced play” and “pass-heavy play” usually go hand-in-hand. The truth, however, is that the Eagles desire to have a balanced offense that leans run-heavy if leaning any way at all. As for the Saints… well, yeah. They have said all summer (and through the start of the season) that they want to be a run-based team. This has not quite manifested itself yet (it’s tough to be run-based when you are constantly trailing, after all), but this is – at least – the desire of the Saints.
2) Each of these defenses boasts solid run-stopping ability; that’s the other reason why the run defense for each team needs to be the starting point of our exploration of this game.
“Wait…what? Saints? Run defense?”
Yes.
Football Outsiders has the Saints pegged as the 12th-best run-stopping unit in the NFL, with the Eagles slotted in at number two.
Pro Football Focus has graded out the Saints with the third-best run-stopping grade in the NFL, with the Eagles right behind them at number four.
Either way you cut it, these teams are going to have a difficult time running the ball.
As for the pass? Well, the Saints – as you might have guessed – are the NFL’s bottom-ranked coverage unit according to both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders. The Eagles, however, are ranked ninth by Pro Football Focus and tenth by Football Outsiders against the pass. Here’s the thing about the Eagles, though: they’re not good top-to-bottom. E.J. Biggers in the slot and Nolan Carroll at right corner have played very well, but Byron Maxwell (who will not even be at 100% if he plays) has been a regular burn victim this season.
With all this knowledge in hand, let’s look at the Saints’ offense first:
Partly because I expect the Saints to be smart enough to mostly stick to the pass (rather than running futilely into the strength of the Eagles’ defense), and partly because I certainly expect the Eagles to keep the ball in the air as well (and to be successful along the way – putting up points and forcing the Saints to throw in order to keep up), I will not be going anywhere near the Saints’ run game. This does not shape up as a high-volume game for Mark Ingram, and while you could certainly step into a short-yardage touchdown, rostering Ingram is a -EV decision overall, even while taking into account what is certain to be low tournament ownership.
This game would shape up better for us if the Saints kept their receivers in the same alignment all the time, as that would make it easier for us to determine who would be lining up across from Byron Maxwell most of the game. Ultimately, however, all Saints receivers should see equal opportunity against Maxwell.
I will not be using Brandon Coleman or Marques Colston, as each receiver is too touchdown-dependent to really be reliable. I do, however, like both Willie Snead and Brandin Cooks.
Having Snead on your roster will certainly not surprise anyone, but I can assure you that you will be in the same company as a lot of very smart DFSers (myself included) if you use Snead as your primary salary-saver this week. It is rare that we are able to roster a guy who has seen target totals over his last three games of six, seven, and six, at minimum (or near-minimum) price, but that’s what we have with Snead this week. In a game in which the Saints are likely to be passing plenty, he provides a lot of point-per-dollar upside, with a very high floor relative to his price.
As for Cooks: I see him more as a tournament play than a cash game play, as his target totals are barely higher than Snead’s (he has had seven or eight targets in every game this year), and he is priced a decent amount higher than Snead. With that said, however: Cooks is going to go very overlooked in tourneys this weekend, as most people will be looking to Snead, and will be staying away from Cooks because of the way “he has been disappointing” fantasy owners lately. This is still a guy whose talent made him a sexy preseason pick to finish as a top ten fantasy receiver, and he certainly has the explosiveness to turn eight targets into a monster game.
On the other side of the ball, Sam Bradford accuracy has left something to be desired… but so has the Saints’ pass defense.
In spite of concerns over Bradford’s play, this game actually shapes up better for him than any game since Week 1 against the Falcons, as the Saints have the sort of passing offense that can keep pace with the Eagles and can force them to keep throwing throughout the game, and the Saints’ run defense will also force the Eagles to keep the ball in the air. Chip Kelly is a smart enough coach to know his unit can achieve success against the Saints through the air, and that is exactly where I expect him to focus his efforts. I could easily see Sam Bradford finishing as a Top-5 QB this weekend, and he is priced far lower than that.
The two main places we want to look for points in the passing game for the Eagles are Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor.
Regardless of whether the Saints move Brandon Browner into the slot to cover Matthews or not, he has a great matchup in this game. The fewest targets he has seen in a game this year is eight, and – as with Cooks – most of us are forgetting that Matthews was considered a strong threat to crack the top ten at his position this season. The talent is certainly there, and the matchup – literally – could not be better; as long as Bradford is able to get the ball in his vicinity, he should be able to post a really solid effort.
As for Agholor: he has averaged only four targets per game (with a high mark on the season of six), but he has played 47 or more snaps in every game this season. Agholor should not be anywhere near your cash game lineups, but the Eagles are wanting to establish the deep ball, the Saints provide a great matchup in which to do this, and Agholor is the best wide receiver for the Eagles to target in this area. This adds up to make him an extremely intriguing tournament flier. The potential return of a fully healthy Keenan Lewis puts a bit of a damper on Agholor’s outlook – but since we would be using him in a tournament and would be hoping for one or two big plays, we are not as concerned about this as we would be for other receivers.
I will be staying away from all running backs on each team (though a case could certainly be made that the pass game involvement of C.J. Spiller and Darren Sproles warrants your consideration – something I won’t be moving toward myself, as I like a higher floor than either guy provides, but something I would not fault you for doing), and the ancillary pieces on each team are too -EV for me to feel great about rostering them. But the core components on each team make for very intriguing plays this weekend, while all providing very high point-per-dollar ceilings.
Players to strongly consider in cash games and tournaments: Sam Bradford, Jordan Matthews, Willie Snead
Players to strongly consider in tournaments: Nelson Agholor, Brandin Cooks
LeoTPP’s Grind Down
The Odds
Since JMToWin covered the odds so well above, let’s consider what they actually mean. With a 49-point total and a five-point spread favoring the Eagles, Vegas expects something in the neighborhood of a 27-22 game. This doesn’t seem that far removed from the 24-20 expected final score between Arizona and Detroit, but there is a strong correlation between higher totals and higher fantasy point outputs. Our RotoAcademy lesson on Vegas lines in daily fantasy football includes research that shows just how much of a difference there is between fantasy point scoring in games with totals over 50 or under 50, and with this game right on the cusp of moving over 50, and representing the highest number of the week, we can look to it for increased production from all players on both offenses.
Matchups by the Numbers
As JMToWin mentions, this is a showdown of two teams that theoretically want to run the ball, but will face tough tests when doing so. The Eagles don’t have the offensive line to pave the way for the running game they wish they had, and while the Saints do have talent in their front five, they are going up against an elite run defense (at least through four games). And through four weeks, the Saints have attempted the third-most passes in the league, while the Eagles rank slightly above average at 13th in that category. And both teams are top-12 in pace, meaning there should be plenty of plays in this game, which benefits fantasy players overall.
Neither team allows yards on the ground, as JM notes above. These are top run defenses facing running games not suited to overcoming difficult matchups. The Saints did allow David Johnson to break free for a long receiving touchdown in Week 1, and allowed two running backs to go over 100 receiving yards last season. So if there’s a way for a running back to get loose against New Orleans, it might be via the passing game. On the other side, the Eagles have yet to allow a back to go for more than 80 yards rushing, have allowed no touchdowns to RBs this year, but like the Saints, there are game logs from a year ago that may indicate passing to running backs is the way to get production against the Eagles. They allowed running backs to score eight receiving touchdowns in 2014, and let Bilal Powell haul in seven receptions in Week 3.
The numbers get a bit better for daily fantasy purposes when we look to the air. The Saints are among the worst pass defenses in football, having allowed seven passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns from quarterbacks, and forcing zero interceptions through four games. They’ve been banged up in their defensive backfield over the first month of the season, and while some of their injured players are either back or expected to return, I’m still not sure this is a defense to worry about if you’re targeting Philly passing game players. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles have a fairly respectable pass-defending record so far this season, including an impressive showing against Tony Romo prior to his injury in Week 2, and picking off Matt Ryan twice in a Week 1 loss to Atlanta. However, opposing team’s top receivers have been able to get their numbers against Philly, as Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall both went for over 100 yards while finding the end zone, and Terrance Williams (deputizing for the injured Dez Bryant as the WR1 for Dallas) added a late game touchdown as well. Secondary options in the passing game don’t have a lot of success against the Eagles, however, and that is concerning for New Orleans, who lack a true top option.
Players to Target
So where will the points come from in this game, if Vegas expects 50 points but both defenses seem stout?
For New Orleans, it’s tough to recommend Drew Brees after his slow start to the season, but his strong showing against Dallas is enough to inspire a bit of confidence. His price dictates a multiple-touchdown performance to reach value, but if the Saints are going to score against the Eagles, it’s more than likely going to come through the air. The recipient of those passes will be tough to predict, but Willie Snead has been trending up, and Brandin Cooks has very steady volume, and either can be used depending on how much you’d like to spend, and how contrarian you wish to be (Cooks is likely to be lower owned than Snead, who is a value play likely to be on the minds of many daily fantasy players). The running back situation leaves a lot to be desired, as the matchup for Mark Ingram and the role for C.J. Spiller remove safety from the equation, but that introduces low ownership and the potential for a big game that sets you apart from the crowd.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are a mess at the running back position. DeMarco Murray is complaining about playing time, but playing poorly enough to drop to the bottom of the depth chart, while Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles have been more productive, but aren’t guaranteed playing time or consistent touches. Sproles is the most likely to do his damage through the air, and he’d be the tournament pick of the bunch, but I’ll be focusing my attention on the passing game. I’m not sure the Eagles are going to be quite as sneaky of a play as many would have hoped, but pairing Sam Bradford with his favored target Jordan Matthews is a safe way to get plenty of upside in what should be a favorable matchup. And don’t forget about Zach Ertz, who plays a tight end position that has torched the Saints so far this season, with Darren Fells and Greg Olsen combining for over 200 yards and three scores in their games against this unit.
What Our Experts Are Saying
Notorious’ Cash Game Play of the Week
Top-rated grinder Notorious picks out the player you need to roster to build a solid foundation for your head-to-head and double up lineups.
It’s safe to say that Sam Bradford has underwhelmed in his first four games in an Eagles’ uniform. The good news is that he is coming off of his best game of the season, where he completed 15 of his 28 passes for 270 yards and three touchdowns against the Redskins. His completion rate wasn’t anything to write home about, but it was good to see the Eagles finally taking some shots downfield. We can expect much more of that this week, as they take on the Saints, who are a bottom five pass defense in basically every important metric (DvP, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, etc.). The Eagles have one of the highest team totals (27 points) on the board this week and if you compare that to their actual points scored per game, the total is nearly eight points higher. We should give a boost to the entire Eagles’ offense in this matchup, but given the fact that their running game has been absent this season, I’m expecting a big outing from Bradford and the passing game.
STLCardinals84’s GPP Play of the Week
STLCardinals84 is a leading tournament player who can provide you with the high-upside plays you need to take down a big GPP.
The Eagles/Saints contest promises to be an entertaining affair, and for me it’s a game that sets up extremely well for C.J. Spiller. The presence of a three-headed monster of Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson, and Spiller makes all three of them hard to trust in any type of cash game as JMToWin mentions above, but Spiller has massive upside in a tournament format. The juicy angle in this one would be to take the similar-type back in Darren Sproles because this is a revenge narrative for him, but I can’t justify him over Spiller here. The Saints get a nice tempo boost facing Chip Kelly’s Eagles, and Spiller could go off if he can find his way into 12-15 touches. After last week’s second half performance, that just might happen.