NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 7, Saints at Colts
This week’s “Matchup of the Week” is a Sunday afternoon shootout between the Saints and Colts in Indianapolis. Two of the league’s best quarterbacks, both recovering for shoulder injuries, will face defenses with all sorts of problems stopping opponents from scoring.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
Guess which game has the highest over/under on the week.
Oh, you already knew it was this one?
Okay, how about this: guess which is the only game this weekend with a high over/under and a low spread?
You guessed this game again? Okay, well…
Yeah.
This is our favorite type of game: a pair of teams that like to pass, and a pair of defenses that are poor against the pass.
If asterisks did not translate on RotoGrinders’ HTML to “put this text in bold,” I would have put an asterisk next to “poor against the pass.” And that is precisely what makes this game so thoroughly interesting from a fantasy standpoint.
First, though, let’s start with this:
Each team in this game is going to find success through the air. This game is also likely to be a back-and-forth affair, which will mean each team in this game will keep passing throughout, and will keep scoring points. That means that the quarterback on each team is worth a long, hard look. On a week in which ownership percentage is going to be dominated by Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer, you could gain a substantial edge by rostering Andrew Luck or Drew Brees in a classic case of “being contrarian without being stupid.” Luck is unlikely to be “low-owned,” as everyone knows he is a good play this week, but he will be “lower-owned than he should be,” and Brees… well, we’ve all been burned by him at one point or another. Most people will be waiting for him to “prove it,” but outside of poor touchdown numbers, he is continuing to “prove it” every week. He’ll go thoroughly overlooked in this game, and you can be the proud owner of his stats if you are willing to go against the grain.
Knowing that Brees and Luck are good plays is the easy part. The hard part is knowing whom you should pair with each QB.
Let’s start with the Colts.
T.Y. Hilton, right? Not so fast. You may not have heard of Delvin Breaux just yet, but around this time last year, most of the fantasy community hadn’t paid much attention to Vontae Davis or Desmond Trufant yet, either. Breaux has been coming on strong as one of the most exciting young corners in football, and you may know him as the guy who ruined your plan to “get a bunch of points from Julio Jones last Thursday night. He shadowed Julio in that game, and there is a very strong chance he shadows T.Y. Hilton in this game. In Andrew Luck last three games, Donte Moncrief has seen more total targets than Hilton, and there has not been a single game in which Hilton had more targets than Moncrief. If Breaux is on Hilton, some simple calculations tell us Brandon Browner is likely to be on Moncrief. Brandon Browner is the anti-Breaux: everyone knows his name, and he is very, very bad at this whole “playing cornerback for a football team” thing. More targets than Hilton plus a better matchup than Hilton plus a lower price than Hilton equals…?
On the other side of the ball, we have one of the few, true shutdown corners in the NFL: Vontae Davis. This year, the Colts have been using Davis to shadow more, but who will he shadow? We don’t know. We do know, however, that Davis rarely moves into the slot, and we know that Willie Snead has seen a 41% share of snaps in the slot.
Ultimately, of course, we cannot say with absolute certainty what things will look like here. Given his price, I would be very comfortable rostering Snead even if he will see some of Davis, as he’ll avoid Davis’ coverage often enough to make a dent in the box score. With that said: I would also be totally fine looking to Brandin Cooks! I feel Snead is slightly more trustworthy in cash games, but I’ll also say this: everyone is going to be overlooking Cooks – and while he may not be the “#1 receiver” the Saints (mis)cast him to be, he is a very talented player. He makes for an intriguing tournament option.
That’s my take on the pass game, but there is also this thing in football called “the run game” (someone may need to tell these coaches about the existence of “the run game,” actually – at times I wonder if they know what it is; perhaps Chuck Pagano was confused on that fake punt fiasco in exactly this area: “Is this that ‘run game’ I keep hearing about? – let’s try it!”).
The Colts have actually been using Gore more than I expected them to, coming into the season, but that was largely because they were forced to do so, as they had nothing resembling a capable backup. Now that Ahmad Bradshaw is back on board, however, these two are in a pseudo-timeshare on a team that does not use running backs enough to make even a “backfield all to himself” back particularly appealing. I’ll be staying away.
On the Saints, however, we have an interesting situation in that Mark Ingram is pretty much being used as both the “on the ground” guy and the “through the air” guy. Ingram is averaging five targets per game on the season, and in a game in which the Saints should have to keep passing, he makes for an extremely intriguing option in tournaments, where most will be moving to the sexier names this week.
Guys I like in cash games and tourneys: Andrew Luck, Donte Moncrief, Willie Snead
Guys I like in tourneys: Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Brandin Cooks, T.Y. Hilton
LeoTPP’s Grind Down
The Odds
As JMToWin mentions above, this game has the highest over/under total on the week at 52, and has one of the tightest spreads of any high-total game with a four-point advantage going to the home-standing Colts. This implies something along the lines of a 28-24 final score in favor of Indianapolis, which means we should see seven or eight touchdowns in this game. Our RotoAcademy lesson on Vegas lines in daily fantasy football includes research that shows just how much of a difference there is between fantasy point scoring in games with totals over 50 or under 50, and with this game sporting a total of 52, we can look to it for increased production from all players on both offenses.
Matchups by the Numbers
One of my favorite sources for analyzing a matchup is the DVOA data at Football Outsiders. The folks behind the numbers at FO have figured out a way to determine how well or how poorly a team is playing by comparing how they play to other teams in similar situations, and adjusting for strength of opponent, to figure out an overall level of efficiency compared to expectations. This DVOA data gives us a summary of every play from every team in easily digested percentage formats.
In this game, we have multiple key facets of both defenses that rank dead last in the NFL, and many more that rank in the bottom ten. Neither team has a major element of their defense that ranks in the top ten in DVOA. So let’s take a look at each phase of the game and determine how to best attack this high-scoring affair.
The Saints rank last in the NFL in DVOA against the pass, which corresponds nicely with the fact that they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The only quarterback to not find the end zone twice against New Orleans was Brandon Weeden, and the only quarterback to throw an interception against the Saints is Sam Bradford. Otherwise, there have been virtually flawless games thrown by quarterbacks of all skill levels against this defense, and we should expect more of the same this week. On the other side of the ball, the Colts represent only a slightly more difficult matchup, ranking 26th in DVOA against the pass, and allowing the ninth-most points to the QB position this year. They limited the damage from Tyrod Taylor in Week 1, and kept the surprising Blake Bortles at bay in Week 4, but have otherwise been a very fantasy-friendly matchup this season.
When it comes to pass catchers, the Saints have actually been decent at holding opposing wide receivers at bay. No single receiver has gone over 100 yards against them this season, but five have gone for more than 75 yards. However, among those who fell short of expectations against the New Orleans defense so far this season are Julio Jones, Jordan Matthews and Larry Fitzgerald, so it’s not a slam dunk to get a big day out of a receiver against New Orleans. Their numbers against tight ends are inflated a bit by Greg Olsen’s huge game in Week 3, as they’ve kept players at that position relatively quiet since that matchup with the Panthers. On the other side of the ball, the Colts do a good job of limiting top receivers, as a healthy Vontae Davis takes away the opponent’s top option. That opens the door for players like Danny Amendola, Eric Decker, Allen Hurns and Kendall Wright to have solid games against this defense, which has given up nine touchdowns to wideouts over six weeks. If an offense can scheme away from Davis, they can get receivers open. Tight ends, on the other hand, haven’t had much success against the Colts.
And in regards to the ground game, neither team is offensively bad or notably good at stopping the run. The Saints are just outside the top ten in points allowed to running backs, but have faced a pretty tough schedule and still only have seven running back touchdowns allowed through six games. The Colts are a slightly tougher matchup for backs, allowing fewer fantasy points and ranking higher in DVOA against the run. Backs have struggled to get over 60 yards rushing against Indianapolis, with only T.J. Yeldon and LeGarrette Blount achieving that milestone. And apart from Arian Foster, no runner has had a particularly great day as a receiver against the Colts defense, either.
Players to Target
It’s easy to find reasons to be concerned about these two defenses, but the Vegas total is high for a reason. There are going to be points. On the Saints side, Drew Brees is a smart choice against a passing defense that has only succeeded at slowing down quarterbacks with significantly less talent than even a declining Brees, making him a great tournament play that should go under the radar a bit. But the best way to get in on the New Orleans offense, as mentioned by JMToWin above, is by targeting their skill position players, who come at very fair prices. Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead will move around the formation and get open against the weaker defenders for the Indy defense, while Mark Ingram and even tight end Ben Watson are in play in tournaments, as there will be several touchdowns scored, and these players have roles and skills in the red zone.
On the other side of the ball, Andrew Luck is likely to be the highest scoring quarterback this weekend, and is in play in any format in daily fantasy football. With the matchups JMToWin mentioned in mind, I too will recommend Donte Moncrief over T.Y. Hilton, but both are viable in tournaments. The tight ends for Indianapolis are too inconsistent in terms of performance and role to trust with a roster spot in all but the cheap tournaments this weekend. And Frank Gore has been reliably getting touches, especially in the red zone, and he’s a sneaky way to break from the very popular backs in his price range.
What Our Experts Are Saying
Notorious’ Cash Game Play of the Week
Top-rated grinder Notorious picks out the player you need to roster to build a solid foundation for your head-to-head and double-up lineups.
There are many remedies in life. We have Western medicine, Eastern medicine, and we have the New Orleans Saints’ defense. All three can you help find a solution, it just depends on what problem you are having. When you are a struggling quarterback, you prefer the third remedy. New Orleans has allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and according to Football Outsiders, their pass defense is the worst in the NFL. Even though Luck has yet to turn the corner this season, he is still averaging close to 20 fantasy points per game, which is the fifth highest of any quarterback in the player pool this week. The Colts have one of the highest team totals on the board and I fully expect this to be Luck’s breakout performance of the season.
STLCardinals84’s GPP Play of the Week
STLCardinals84 is a leading tournament player who can provide you with the high-upside plays you need to take down a big GPP.
People became a little hesitant to recommend Donte Moncrief after Andre Johnson had a few good games with Matt Hasselbeck under center. However, Moncrief made a ridiculous touchdown grab on Sunday night and obviously has more rapport with Andrew Luck. When Luck returned, he saw his targets bounce right back, and should continue to be the second receiver in this offense. He is a talented athlete, has a very affordable price tag, and is playing in the game with the highest total of the week. He’s a fantastic tournament option.