NFL Primetime Preview: Week 10
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Primetime Preview, an all-encompassing preview of Sunday and Monday Night Football. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s primetime contests.
Each game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
| Arizona Cardinals | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 45 | 21 | -3 | 45 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 32.9 | 2 | 6 | 10 | Offense | 20.9 | 24 | 27 | 4 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | Opp. Defense | 19.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 1 | 1 | 29 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 10 | 11 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Fitzgerald | 70 | 55 | 7 | 706 | Baldwin | 40 | 31 | 2 | 345 | |
| Floyd | 37 | 20 | 3 | 319 | Kearse | 31 | 21 | 1 | 338 | |
| Brown | 51 | 37 | 3 | 575 | Lockett | 28 | 20 | 0 | 254 | |
| Fells | 12 | 9 | 2 | 146 | Graham | 55 | 38 | 2 | 450 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI, Probable), John Brown (ARI, Questionable)
ARI Matchup Rating: 4.0
SEA Matchup Rating: 3.5
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: This will be an incredibly fun game to watch, but a very tough one to break down for fantasy purposes. Two of the league’s best defenses (Arizona ranks third, Seattle ranks seventh in Football Outsiders’ DVOA weighted for recent results) will face a pair of offenses with some very skilled players. The Arizona offense, in particular, has been great for most of this season, with Carson Palmer (FD $8,000, DK $6,900) leading the way under center. Palmer had arguably his worst outing of the season against a similarly good St. Louis defense, but that still included 350 yards and a touchdown. I’m not going to rule Palmer out entirely, but I don’t think he’s the same cash-game lock he was for most of the first half of the season. Andy Dalton and Aaron Rodgers were both able to throw for two scores against Seattle, and I am confident Palmer can recreate that feat. He’d need a bit more than that to hit value, which is why he’s just a tournament play.
Running Game: The Seahawks allow the fewest points per game to opposing running backs, and have kept every back they’ve faced out of the end zone apart from Jonathan Stewart. Chris Johnson (FD $6,800, DK $4,600) and company have been impressive this year, but I can’t recommend the Arizona rushing offense when the passing game has been so efficient, and this matchup is equally tough for both phases of the offense.
Pass Catchers: Since Week 6, which we can view as the reintroduction of Michael Floyd (FD $5,900, DK $3,800) to the Arizona offense, the targets have been split evenly between Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,400, DK $7,400) and John Brown (FD $6,100, DK $5,500). With a bye week to rest and recover, all three should suit up for Arizona, and figuring out who to target will be very tricky. Larry Fitzgerald spends a lot of time in the slot, where the Seahawks don’t have a great slot cover man. John Brown and Michael Floyd split their snaps on the outside against either the talented Richard Sherman and the beatable Cary Williams. Fitzgerald is my first choice among these three, with Brown preferred over Floyd based on talent and volume upside. Any of the three make for interesting GPP plays.
The Takeaway: The Cardinals face a very tough matchup this week, but they’ve been playing too well on offense to totally ignore. The passing game is where you should spend your DFS salary this weekend, but don’t go overboard against a still-elite Seattle defense.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals are better against both the run and pass than the Seahawks, but as the road team in this tough matchup, we can still search for potential plays on this Seattle offense. Arizona has allowed 40+ yards rushing to two quarterbacks this season (Kaepernick and Vick), which bodes well for Russell Wilson (FD $7,600, DK $5,900). The Cardinals rank 25th in points allowed to opposing QBs, but have given up multiple touchdown passes on three occasions. This isn’t a great spot for Wilson, who has been consistently mediocre as a passer this season (six straight games with one touchdown throw), but if he’s able to run for 50+ yards and find the end zone as a runner, any passing he provides could help vault him over the value threshold. I’m not overly optimistic that will happen, however, and will likely have no exposure to Wilson.
Running Game: When Marshawn Lynch (FD $8,000, DK $6,700) is healthy, he’s a viable play in daily fantasy football. He gets 20+ opportunities per game (carries and targets) and is the team’s preferred red zone option. Todd Gurley is the only back to rush for over 100 yards against the Cardinals this year, but that’s a feat Lynch can accomplish on 20+ carries. This is a very tough matchup, and we could see an output similar to the 17/54/1 performance he produced against Carolina, but one or two big runs and a score are always in play for Lynch.
Pass Catchers: We can’t roster the returning Paul Richardson on either of the major sites, but his return only adds more talent to a receiving corps with no single obvious target, but several capable players. No single wideout has seen more than six targets in a game since Week 2, with Jimmy Graham (FD $6,000, DK $4,900) representing the only pass catcher to see any sort of regular volume from Russell Wilson. The Cardinals have the top DVOA defense against tight ends, and will have a plan to stop Graham, so I’ll avoid this situation altogether. Russell Wilson may have a nice game, but picking who he’ll throw to is an impossible task.
The Takeaway: Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are worthy of a spot in your lineups this week, but the rest of the Seattle offense is impossible to figure out.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
| Houston Texans | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Paul Brown Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 47.5 | 18.5 | -10.5 | 47.5 | 29 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.8 | 20 | 8 | 31 | Offense | 28.6 | 3 | 14 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.8 | 4 | 17 | 14 | Opp. Defense | 25.6 | 22 | 8 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | 16 | 8 | 17 | Houston Texans | 25 | 25 | 7 | 16 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hopkins | 112 | 66 | 6 | 870 | Green | 73 | 50 | 4 | 702 | |
| Washington | 50 | 26 | 3 | 411 | Sanu | 30 | 21 | 1 | 334 | |
| Shorts | 45 | 26 | 1 | 299 | Jones | 49 | 31 | 3 | 422 | |
| Fiedorowicz | 12 | 9 | 1 | 89 | Eifert | 54 | 37 | 9 | 434 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Nate Washington, Cecil Shorts (HOU, Questionable)
HOU Matchup Rating: 3.5
CIN Matchup Rating: 7.5
Houston Texans
Quarterback: The garbage-time Texans may strike again this weekend, as a road game in primetime against the Bengals should result in a healthy margin of victory for Cincinnati. That means more opportunities with the game out of reach for Brian Hoyer (FD $6,800, DK $5,400), who has thrived in those situations this season. Including two appearances in relief of Ryan Mallett, Hoyer has multiple touchdown passes in his last five appearances, and has gone over 230 yards in all five games as well. That’s a solid return at his price point, with upside for more thanks to his capable set of receivers. The Bengals are a pretty good pass defense (11th in DVOA, 26th in points allowed), but EJ Manuel had 263 yards and a touchdown in a two-score loss, while Alex Smith threw for 386 yards in a double-digit defeat against them. There’s garbage time to be found against the Bengals, and Hoyer will be the beneficiary. He’s a fine tournament punt.
Running Game: Alfred Blue (FD $5,900, DK $4,000) and Chris Polk (FD $5,300, DK $3,200) are the primary runners for Houston, and neither holds much appeal against the Bengals, who have a mediocre run defense, but who should get out to an early lead and force the Texans to air it out. Jonathan Grimes (FD $5,300, DK $3,000) is the receiving back, and is worth a flier on a GPP site, but hasn’t seen consistent volume this season and we don’t have a big enough sample size of how he’ll be used with Arian Foster.
Pass Catchers: The Bengals have one corner to fear, Adam Jones, but he has played his side for 98% of his snaps this season, according to PFF. That could change this week, but that’s not something to bank on, and DeAndre Hopkins (FD $8,900, DK $8,700) will see a healthy amount of snaps lined up across from the struggling Dre Kirkpatrick. Nate Washington (FD $5,200, DK $4,400) will also see coverage from both of those wideouts, while Cecil Shorts (FD $5,400, DK $3,000) appears to have finally recovered from his injury and should line up in the slot, where the Bengals lack a talented corner. Shorts and Washington are tougher to trust with both in the lineup, as they will be splitting the targets that don’t go to Hopkins, which usually doesn’t amount to all that many. Shorts is preferred, since he’ll see very little, if any, coverage from Jones, and his price is cheaper on DraftKings, where PPR scoring gives him a big boost. Hopkins is always in play in any format, as he’s consistently targeted and will get every chance to have a big game.
The Takeaway: Brian Hoyer and any of the three receivers can be combined to form a GPP stack this week, but stay away from the running game. The Texans should lose this game easily, but they’ve proven that they keep going for stats even in blowout losses, and we can count those in fantasy the same as any other stats.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: One of the toughest calls in daily fantasy football is figuring out if an offensive player in a good matchup that’s also a likely blowout is worth the investment. Andy Dalton (FD $8,100, DK $6,500) has scored three or more touchdowns five times this season, and has been one of the best fantasy assets in the league this year. This week, he’ll face a Houston defense that ranks ninth in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and 17th in DVOA against the pass, and prior to an easy game against the terrible Zach Mettenberger, allowed nine touchdowns in three games to some mediocre competition (Hasselbeck, Bortles, Tannehill). Dalton is more than capable following suit and scoring three or four times, but will he have to? Or will the Bengals race out to a lead, sit on their advantage, and go home with an easy win? A Week 4 win against Kansas City is the only game which saw the Bengals win by double-digit points and Dalton failed to throw for multiple touchdowns, so there’s a reasonable floor for the Cincy QB. The ceiling may be limited, but Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill combined for seven touchdowns against this defense, so Dalton can certainly score four of his own and be the top scoring QB on this slate. It’s just not all that probable, so save him for tournaments.
Running Game: Giovani Bernard (FD $6,300, DK $4,700) is the better running back based on what we’ve seen on the field this season, but Jeremy Hill (FD $6,600, DK $5,300) is seemingly the player we always want to roster. However, I think this may be the week that narrative begins to turn, as Bernard has proven to be the better back, has more red zone work, and has a great matchup. Houston ranks ninth in points allowed to backs this year, and are the worst team in the league in DVOA against backs in the passing game. Neither player can be used in cash games, but give me Bernard over Hill in tournaments.
Pass Catchers: It’s one thing to predict if Andy Dalton will do well, it’s another thing to figure out who will be the pass-catching beneficiary. Sometimes, A.J. Green (FD $8,300, DK $7,600) is a target magnet with three-touchdown upside, but at others, he’s just a regular part of a solid passing game. Sometimes, Marvin Jones (FD $5,400, DK $4,300) is a playmaking threat finding the end zone and having a huge game, but at others, he’s invisible. And as most tight ends tend to be, Tyler Eifert (FD $6,200, DK $5,800) is inconsistent but always a huge red zone threat. So who is the player to target against the Texans? Wide receivers have fared better than tight ends against Houston, according to DVOA, but fantasy points allowed prefer tight ends (21st in FP allowed to WR, 17th to TE). Slot receivers feature prominently among the top WR performances of the season against Houston, meaning Mohamed Sanu (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) would be the player to target, if he had a reliable role in the offense. Talented tight ends have had their way against Houston, with Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen, Julius Thomas and Delanie Walker all catching six or more passes for 60 or more yards with three touchdowns among them. That leads me to prefer Eifert, with Green and Jones next in line, in that order.
The Takeaway: The Bengals should win this game easily, but how they score the points to race out to a big lead will be key in building a good lineup this weekend. Dalton, Bernard and Eifert are the top plays, while Hill, Green and Jones are all worthy of a spot in your lineups, as well. The defense and special teams is an alright option, but the Texans have actually limited turnovers fairly well this year, which caps the upside for the Bengals D/ST.