DraftKings NFL DFS Week 1 Preview: Salaries, Projections, and Odds
Sure, we still have over a month until the 2023 NFL season kicks off, but DraftKings released their Week 1 NFL DFS salaries this past weekend. Naturally, our team here at RotoGrinders got right to work to provide our Week 1 NFL DFS projections, so let’s take an early look at the opening main slate of the year while utilizing our NFL DFS optimizer. Keep in mind, a lot can, and likely will change before Week 1 actually arrives, but it is always a fun practice to get our first impressions on salaries, projections, and odds and maybe even throw out a few early picks while we’re at it
DraftKings NFL DFS Week 1 Salaries & Projections
Quarterbacks
| Player | Team | Rank | Proj | RGVal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson |  BAL | 1 | 24.39 | 2.64 |
| Justin Herbert |  LAC | 2 | 21.77 | 2.22 |
| Jalen Hurts |  PHI | 3 | 23.33 | 1.98 |
| Sam Howell |  WAS | 4 | 17.49 | 1.94 |
| Geno Smith |  SEA | 5 | 19.7 | 1.75 |
| Justin Fields |  CHI | 6 | 22.72 | 1.57 |
| Deshaun Watson |  CLE | 7 | 19.23 | 1.48 |
| Trevor Lawrence |  JAC | 8 | 20.21 | 1.46 |
| Kirk Cousins |  MIN | 9 | 19.47 | 1.12 |
| Tua Tagovailoa |  MIA | 10 | 20.2 | 1.05 |
Lamar Jackson gets the nod as the top projected QB to start the year. DraftKings seem to agree there as he is also the most expensive at $8k. No surprise the model likes him here, as he gets a matchup against the Texans, who had a bottom-10 defense, and were especially bad against the run. There are rumors around Baltimore that the Ravens plan to put a more pass-heavy, upbeat offensive scheme into place, which makes sense as they showed a lot of attention to the passing game in the offseason adding three new WRs to their team. The Ravens are big favorites here, and have a slate high 27 implied team total, which leaves plenty of room for confidence in this offense.
Jalen Hurts was incredible last year, and he comes in as the second-highest projected QB, although the matchup is likely not ideal here as the Patriots were a top-5 defense last year, and were excellent against the pass. Hurts always has the ability to put up a ceiling performance, especially thanks to his rushing production. The Eagles offense are not far off from the Ravens either, according to their 25 implied team total for week 1.
Justin Herbert was banged up for a majority of the 2022 campaign, and with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in town, I am expecting big things from this Chargers offense. This team spent their first-round pick on a Wide Receiver, showing they are all-in on this passing attack. This matchup between the Chargers and Dolphins is destined for fireworks. Both teams have elite offenses, and played extremely quick while throwing the ball a ton last year. Herbert has the fourth-best projection, and the second-best RG value rating amongst QBs on the slate.
Sam Howell got a good deal of buzz last year, and in his lone start in Week 18, he threw for 170 yards and 1 TD while also adding 35 yards and a TD on the ground. He gets the best Pt/$ rating on the slate thanks to his low price tag of just $4.9k.
Derek Carr is another cheap QB who catches my eye, he steps into an offense here in New Orleans with plenty of weapons, and in a home game under the dome, we could see the Saints looking to put up some numbers with their new leader under center.
The Seahawks also have a 26.5 implied team total, leaving Geno Smith with a solid projection as well, he is the third-best Pt/$ QB at this point.
Running Backs
| Player | Team | Rank | Proj | RGVal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson |  NEP | 1 | 17.28 | 0.53 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | JAC | 2 | 16.84 | 0.29 |
| Kenneth Walker | SEA | 3 | 14.95 | 0.2 |
| Derrick Henry |  TEN | 4 | 18.27 | -0.08 |
| Nick Chubb | CLE | 5 | 18.79 | -0.36 |
| Javonte Williams |  DEN | 6 | 13.77 | -0.38 |
| Christian McCaffrey |  SFO | 7 | 19.73 | -0.42 |
| Rachaad White |  TBB | 8 | 13.24 | -0.51 |
| Joe Mixon |  CIN | 9 | 15.82 | -0.53 |
| Aaron Jones |  GBP | 10 | 14.73 | -0.62 |
| Austin Ekeler | LAC | 11 | 18.74 | -0.81 |
It shouldn’t come as a surprise to many people that Christian McCaffrey sits atop the running backs in terms of projections for Week 1. The matchup is not a perfect one, as the Steelers were quite good on the ground last year and project to be so again this year. However, McCaffrey is entirely matchup proof. We project him to be extremely involved in the passing game, as well as see the lions share of work on the ground for this team.
Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry round out the top four, as all three of these guys are projected very closely to one another. The Saints were weak against the run last year, and despite the addition of DeAndre Hopkins we should still expect this Titans team to feature their workhorse RB, although there are some concerns on the offensive line this year for Tennessee.
The next tier features exciting rookie Bijan Robinson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis Etienne and Josh Jacobs. The Patriots haven’t gone out and added much depth or competition for touches behind Rhamondre Stevenson, leading all signs to point towards an excellent role for the 2022 breakout RB. Stevenson projects to be quite involved in the passing game as well.
Stevenson and Etienne are top two in terms of Pt/$ rating according to our early projections, a couple of other RBs who stand out from a value perspective are Javonte Williams, Rachaad White, Kenneth Walker, and Joe Mixon.
Wide Receivers
| Player | Team | Rank | Proj | RGVal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | CLE | 1 | 12.7 | 2.35 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | 2 | 21.99 | 1.64 |
| Cooper Kupp |  LAR | 3 | 21.09 | 1.54 |
| Tyreek Hill | MIA | 4 | 19.66 | 0.51 |
| Mike Williams | LAC | 5 | 14.39 | 0.24 |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | 6 | 17.02 | 0.07 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | 7 | 18.66 | -0.29 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SFO | 8 | 12.18 | -0.37 |
| Deebo Samuel | SFO | 9 | 13.31 | -0.44 |
| Christian Kirk | JAC | 10 | 13.01 | -0.94 |
Obviously stacking is still king in NFL DFS, so pass catchers are typically going to coincide with QBs, but top guys like Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp have excellent projections despite me not highlighting their QBs early in this article.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both in the top 5 of WR projections, giving even more steam behind the Chargers/Dolphins game being an exciting one.
Ja’Marr Chase and Davante Adams aren’t quite on the level of Kupp and Jefferson in our Week 1 projections, but as we saw last year, these two are more than capable of erupting on any given week.
Mike Williams is a very enticing mid-tier option here, and I would especially love him if he came at a lower ownership. DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Olave, and Brandon Aiyuk are other appealing mid-range options.
If looking for value at the WR position, Elijah Moore is a guy that our model likes quite a bit this year, especially if he can carve out a role as the WR2 in this Cleveland offense. A few other players projecting well from a value standpoint are Jonathan Mingo, Jahan Dotson, and Rondale Moore. Although we will likely need more certainty on the WR position in Carolina before feeling confident in any of these pass catchers.
Tight Ends
| Player | Team | Rank | Proj | RGVal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN | 1 | 14.67 | 0.12 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 2 | 12.84 | 0.09 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | 3 | 15.11 | -0.04 |
| Pat Freiermuth |  PIT | 4 | 9.82 | -1.13 |
| David Njoku | CLE | 5 | 9.86 | -1.29 |
| Kyle Pitts |  ATL | 6 | 10.25 | -1.5 |
| Greg Dulcich | DEN | 7 | 9.13 | -1.62 |
| Gerald Everett | LAC | 8 | 9.5 | -1.85 |
| Hayden Hurst |  CAR | 9 | 6.65 | -2.1 |
| Mike Gesicki | NEP | 10 | 6.94 | -2.21 |
With Travis Kelce playing in the opening game of the season on Thursday Night, we are without the top option for most weeks at the position. However, Mark Andrew and T.J. Hockenson project as very strong options here as well, with less than half a point separating these two at the top of the position. .
Dallas Goedert is a mid range option that projects quite well here, as he projects as the third highest scoring TE on the slate, and gets the second best RG value score.
Goedert, Hockenson, and Andrews all get the best Pt/$ projections for this week as well, but if you are looking to really save some money at the position, a few names that stand out are Pat Freirmuth, David Njoku, and Kyle Pitts.
Week 1 NFL DraftKings DFS Picks
The names listed above are an early look at some players who have solid projections for week 1, but let’s narrow it done and give out some of my favorite plays early on, and maybe a few surprise plays that the projections aren’t as keen on.
Chargers/Dolphins game stack featuring Herbert, Williams, Waddle, and Hill
I have not been shy with my interest in this game, it is easily the game I am most excited for on this main slate, and there a few things you can do with this stack. Mike Williams projects as one of the top values at the WR position so pairing him with Justin Herbert is a natural fit, but if you are looking for a double stack you have a few options in this Chargers passing attack. Keenan Allen is an obvious one, he has a nice floor/ceiling combo but the price might make it difficult especially if you want to use Tyreek Hill and/or Jaylen Waddle. Gerald Everett makes a lot of sense, as he is fairly cheap and you get to correlate a position with usually a limited ceiling, to a high upside game stack. Rookie first-round WR Quentin Johnston is also an option as a dart play if you think he can step right into this offense as the third option in the passing game. Lastly, is Austin Ekeler. Although he is a RB, he still correlates plenty with Herbert as he is so involved in the passing game.
Joe Mixon
I am personally quite high on Joe Mixon this year. Although last years up-and-down production left lots of questions for Mixon, there is still a lot to like here. First, with Semaje Perine gone, there isn’t a lot of competition behind him for touches, although they likely try to preserve Mixon’s health by mixing in some other options behind him, he should be the clear cut RB1. Next, he is a running back with pass catching upside, in one of the best offenses in football. Sounds to me like the opportunity is quite good for Mixon this year, and here in Week 1 he gets a matchup against the Browns who were bottom-5 against the run last year.
Justin Jefferson
I know, it’s a real hot take here liking Justin Jefferson in fantasy football. However, what’s there not to like for Jefferson? You can argue that his situation has actually improved compared to last year when he averaged over 7.5 catches and 106 yards per game last year.
Please keep in mind that this article was written with over a month remaining until the actual Week 1 DFS main slate kicks off, so make sure to come back and check in on all of our content, projections, and tools here at RotoGrinders prior to locking in those lineups!
Week 1 NFL Odds at DraftKings
NFL odds can give us a good amount of context on what to expect from each game, and this can be very helpful in analyzing players from a DFS standpoint. Here’s a look at current NFL Week lines, courtesy of DraftKings.
- Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs -7, O/U 54
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts +3.5, O/U 43.5
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings -6.5, O/U 45.5
- Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens -9.5, O/U 44
- San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers +3, O/U 40.5
- Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns +2, O/U 47.5
- Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders -6, O/U 40.5
- Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints -3, O/U 41.5
- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons -3, O/U 42.5
- Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots +4.5, O/U 46
- Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos -4, O/U 44.5
- Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers -2.5, O/U 50
- Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears -3, O/U 44
- Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks -5, O/U 47.5
- Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants +3, O/U 46.5
- Buffalo Bills at New York Jets +1.5, O/U 47
- Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles -7