NFL Week 4 Lines and Betting Picks: Tips for Every Game
It’s time to look at NFL Week 4 lines and picks! Luckily Sloan Piva has you covered with NFL betting tips for every game, starting with Thursday’s rather lackluster primetime matchup and ending with Monday Night Football. As always, make sure to kick things off with our favorite sportsbook offers found below!
The 2021 NFL season has been bananas, with a ton of different storylines taking hold. Underdogs have become division leaders, and both 2020 conference champions have dropped two of their first three games. Justin Tucker has asserted himself as the best kicker of all time, providing a sense of validation to my idiot friends who insisted on preserving the kicker position in our fantasy league. The Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, and LA Rams are undefeated through three weeks. Aaron Rodgers led a comeback drive in 37 seconds, and Big Ben Roethlisberger finally looks too old for the game. Need a minute? Okay, catch your breath and have a sip of water—it’s time to make some friggin’ picks.
Last week brought more of the unexpected, but we keep getting better and better with our early-week best bets. We hit on our lock for Thursday Night Football, went 2-0 on our bets for Sunday Night Football, and went 1-1 on Monday Night Football. We also crushed our two best bets for the 1 p.m. Sunday slate. Things are looking up, and the rest of the way we will be yelling “straight cash, homey,” Randy Moss style.
You know the drill by now—each Tuesday morning, I provide you with my favorite bets for every single game of the upcoming NFL week. Of course, I give you my favorite wager in the primetime games, but I also list my best bets of the 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. Sunday slates, ranked in order by confidence level.
So, don’t smash-play an OVER or jump all over a spread just because it’s listed on here—if it’s toward the bottom of the list, it might be a little more volatile than it’s worth. But if it’s toward the top, it’s something I would bet with my money and not just yours. We’re in this together, RotoGrinders Nation. Let’s go make some more money, and have as much fun as Justin Tucker crow-hopping his way into NFL history.
Thursday Night Football, 8:20 p.m.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals -7.5, O/U 45.5
Cincinnati got the job done against the bumbling Steelers Sunday, but that game might tell us more about Pittsburgh’s woes than Cincy’s strengths. Second-year Bengals QB Joe Burrow had three passing touchdowns, despite only completing 14 passes for 172 yards—that’s a 2021 stat if I’ve ever seen one—and the Bengals needed just 268 total yards of offense to finish with a 24-10 win. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are proving once again that college coaching and quarterbacking success will never guarantee similar results at the professional level. The Jags are 0-3 with Urban Meyer at the helm and Trevor Lawrence under center, and they have scored 53 total points in three games. Jacksonville ranks near the bottom of the barrel of the league in just about every level of the game. I expect the Jags will make Burrow look great again this Thursday evening, as Cincy simply has too many playmakers for Jacksonville’s horrid defense to contain (Joe Cullen’s D unit ranks 28th in points, yards, and passing yards allowed, and 31st in turnover percentage and net yards allowed per passing attempt). Enjoy watching Bengals rookie Ja’Marr Chase, the early frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year. If Chase is joined by second-year standout receiver Tee Higgins (shoulder) after a one-game absence, bet Cincy straight up. If Higgins sits once again, buy a point for good measure.
PICK: Bengals -7.5 if Higgins plays; buy a point and bet Cincy at -6.5 if Higgins sits again
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks, 1 p.m
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles +7, O/U 54.5
The defending-AFC champion Chiefs have lost two of their first three games, with Patrick Mahomes looking more human than we’re used to seeing him. Defenses are scheming well against the Chiefs, who seem to force things when they start getting punched in the mouth. Well, don’t expect too much mouth-punching from the Eagles, who looked completely overmatched by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Second-year QB Jalen Hurts made some bizarre post-game speech, equating moving on from a bad loss to flushing the toilet after taking a dump, so maybe he won’t let the stink of his primetime play linger in his head? Nah, he’ll just lay another turd on the field. I liked the Chiefs better at -5.5 when the Week 4 odds opened, but I’ll gladly take them to beat the Eagles by eight points. Dallas just put a 40-burger on them, and had them making poo metaphors—Philly is not ready for this sh*tstorm (sorry, I’m apparently 12 years old).
PICK: Chiefs -7
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears -3, O/U 42
Did I miss something? The Bears don’t even know who their starting quarterback will be, even if all three signal-callers are cleared to play. And Detroit has played better football under Jared Goff than any 0-3 team I’ve ever seen. Seriously! The Lions almost mounted a massive comeback against San Fran in Week 1, falling short 41-33. They had a Week 2 halftime lead over the Packers in Green Bay before Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones went superhuman. And they should have beat Baltimore this past Sunday, but the referees missed a blatant delay of game call so that Justin Tucker could nail his record 66-yard game-winner. Long story short, the Lions believe in themselves even if the sportsbooks don’t, and they are going to wipe the floor with the sticky mess that is the Chicago Bears. I’d back Detroit at -3.5 here, so I’ll gladly take them getting three points.
PICK: Lions +3.5 (buying a half-point)
Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons +1.5, O/U 48
Man, sportsbooks weird me out sometimes. The Falcons just beat the Giants in New York, while Washington got creamed in Buffalo. And yet WFT are one-point favorites in Atlanta? Sure, I’ll bite. If Matt Ryan and his supporting cast can’t make it happen against this defense—which has surrendered 20, 29, and 43 points (in that order) this season—it might be the end of the road for the 2016 MVP. Methinks the road continues, at least for now. I bet elite receiver Calvin Ridley, highly-touted tight end Kyle Pitts, and dual-purpose veteran back Mike Davis will all enjoy a fancy feast of fantasy fortune.
PICK: Falcons +1.5
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets +7.5, O/U 46
In the past two weeks, Tennessee has outlasted Seattle in a 33-30 overtime win and handily dismissed Indy 25-16. In that same span, Zach Wilson and the Jets have been collectively outscored by the Patriots and Broncos to the tune of 51-6. Some people just don’t have what it takes to make it in the NFL, and Wilson might be one of them. The Titans roll on, with or without Pro Bowl-caliber play from QB Ryan Tannehill or the presence of wideout A.J. Brown (hamstring). Reigning two-time rushing champ Derrick Henry could probably beat this Jets team by himself. Buy a half-point if you’re worried about a potential 0.5 bad beat, but I think you’ll be okay either way.
PICK: Titans -7.5
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints -7.5, O/U 43.5
The Giants are scrappy, but they rely too heavily on frantic runs from QB Daniel Jones and too little on actual quarterbacking play. And the Saints have a fantastic defense and a similarly-erratic (but clearly superior) offense. This line feels too low to limbo, but this could easily be a scrappy 20-17 win. The Giants have had two games go under 40 total points, and their last one against Atlanta totaled just 31. New Orleans games have totaled 41, 33, and 41 in that order. In the betting game, we must follow logic and pay attention to trends. We may have to hold our nose before we go under, but it’s better than picking the spread one way or the other.
PICK: UNDER 43.5
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -4.5, O/U 50.5
This should be a great game, which means it’s not a great game to pick. I love the way Carolina’s defense has played this season, and Sam Darnold has revived his career under Matt Rhule and Joe Brady. But the Cowboys have a ton of momentum after roasting the Eagles on Monday Night Football. Dak Prescott looks great, CeeDee Lamb has played like a top-five receiver, and the running back tandem of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard might be a better one-two punch than Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in Cleveland. I’m taking Dallas here, but I’m also taking the over as Dallas home games tend to be high-scoring. Games at At&T Stadium averaged 64.2 points last season, and the Cowboys’ home-opening win over Philly reached 62 total points. Smart money usually makes money.
PICK: Cowboys -4.5, OVER 50.5
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings +1.5, O/U 51.5
The Vikings have participated in some real offensive slugfests this season, so I guess I can understand why oddsmakers have this one at 52.5. But Cleveland’s defense looked absolutely electric against Chicago last week, with perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett terrorizing the Bears’ o-line. If the Browns can take advantage of Minnesota’s weak interior, and apply pressure on Kirk Cousins in the pocket, it’s game over—regardless of if Dalvin Cook returns to the field. Either way, I don’t see this game exceeding 52 points. I think Cleveland will get out to an early lead, and run its way to the finish line.
PICK: Browns -1.5
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills -15.5, O/U 47
Josh Allen and the Bills offense woke up in a major way over the weekend, lighting up WFT 43-21. Meanwhile, without Tyrod Taylor the Texans stink even worse than they did at the start of the season. I hate 17-point spreads in the NFL, but if you held a gun to my head I would probably go with Buffalo at home. Allen has ground to make up in the MVP discussion.
PICK: Bills -15.5 ( -114 at FanDuel)
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins -1.5, O/U 43.5
These teams come into Week 4 in similar levels of duress. Both have above-average defenses, at least on paper, and both have starting QBs with physical ailments. For Miami, second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa has a rib injury that will sideline him for at least another few weeks, paving the way for the “revenge game” (false) narrative for Jacoby Brissett against his former team. For Indy, Carson Wentz has multiple ankle injuries, which reminds me of my own personal injury report after each game in my recreational volleyball league. Seriously, though, how the hell do we assess this game? It’s in Miami, and the Dolphins have more playmakers right now, so I guess I’ll take them -1.5 if I must register a pick.
PICK: Dolphins -1.5, “Meh” Pick of the Week
NFL Week 4 Picks, 4 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos -1, O/U 45
As I explained in RotoGrinders’ Early NFL Week 4 Lines, Betting Picks and Predictions, my favorite line of the week as the Ravens +1.5 in Denver on Sunday afternoon. The Broncos have been a great story out of the gate, with Teddy Bridgewater finding himself in his new home at Mile High. But who have they defeated? The Jets, Jaguars, and Giants might comprise the top three 2022 NFL Draft picks, for all we know right now. None of those three squads possess as strong an all-around defense as the Ravens, and they definitely cannot hold a candle to Baltimore’s complex running attack. Led by 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have already upended the Chiefs, and their only loss so far came via the Raiders in an overtime slugfest in Week 1 on Monday Night Football. I locked Ravens +1.5 in but the line has shortened a half-point since. Without second-year stud receiver Jerry Jeudy (IR), and with a running attack still finding its bearings, Denver should endure its first loss of the season in Week 4 against the visiting Ravens. Bet accordingly.
PICK: Ravens +1.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers -7, O/U 45.5
The Steelers have made dysfunction their function, and Big Ben Roethlisberger is out there getting knocked down by Casper the Unfriendly Ghost (and it’s not even Halloween!). Dad jokes aside, Pittsburgh looked miserable in its 24-10 dismissal by the division-rival Bengals, and now it faces a date with a red-hot Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Lambeau. Woof. Top Steelers wideout Diontae Johnson is hurt, rookie back Najee Harris has been asked to shoulder an irresponsible load three games into his pro career (19 targets last week!?), and Big Ben can’t throw the long ball. The Steelers can’t handle Cincy at its worst in a home game—it won’t be competitive against the Pack at their best. Give me ARodg and Co. and the over here.
PICK: Packers -7, OVER 45.5
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams 4.5, O/U 54.5
The Cardinals and Rams have each started the 2021 NFL season undefeated, and sportsbooks have made themselves crystal clear which of these franchises they believe in. Well, I happen to believe in both. The Rams have something very special brewing offensively, and their defense continues to wreak havoc on opponents. But Kyler Murray’s Cardinals have been explosive, and Arizona’s defense has looked pretty damn good, too. The biggest thing to keep an eye on in this game is the status of DeAndre Hopkins. If Nuk suits up, I’m taking the Cards +6. If the perennial All-Pro sits, or he’s announced as a limited participant in practice late in the week, I’ll probably roll with the Rams. Los Angeles will win this game—they have proven themselves as the best current team in football—it’s just a matter of determining their winning margin.
PICK: Cardinals +4.5 if Hopkins plays, Rams -4.5 if Hopkins sits or is listed as limited participant late in week
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers -3, O/U 52
The Seahawks have been stumbling since their Week 1 win over Indianapolis. They lost an overtime nail-biter to Tennessee 33-30 in Week 2, and got smoked 30-17 in Minnesota over the past weekend. Meanwhile, the 49ers almost beat the Packers on Sunday Night Football, taking a lead with 37 seconds left in regulation (that’s too much time for Aaron Rodgers, apparently). The common denominator in Seattle’s losing streak has been quality opposing running games, but San Fran has encountered a rash of injuries to its running back depth chart. And the Niners D appears to miss Robert Saleh, as it has surrendered 30-plus points in two of San Fran’s first three games. I’m going with Russ Wilson in a bounce-back divisional win on the road.
PICK: Seahawks +3
Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots +6.5, O/U 49
This could be a bloodbath. Honestly, the timing could not be worse for Bill Belichick’s squad. It’s “(player-popup #tom-brady)Tom Brady”:/players/tom-brady-11604’s first game in Foxboro since becoming a Buccaneer, and it happens to come one week after he lost to the undefeated Rams? Yikes. Adding insult to injury, the Saints just bludgeoned the Patriots in New England, exposing a myriad of flaws that Bruce Arians and Brady will be sure to exploit. As a lifelong Patriots fan, my heart hopes Mac Jones outduels the old man. But as a responsible betting analyst, I know this one will be over by the third quarter.
PICK: Buccaneers -6.5, OVER 49
Monday Night Football, 8:15 p.m.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers -3.5, O/U 52.5
It’s a trap! A 3.5 spread for a home team on Monday Night Football always feels like a trap, even with the Chargers coming off a brilliant win over the division-rival Chiefs. Let’s not forget that Derek Carr and the Raiders are playing damn good football as well, and they’ve already got a big Monday win under their belts in 2021 (versus the Ravens in OT opening week). Top to bottom, you can tell this team believes it has a shot, and I have no reason to believe it can’t at least cover. Justin Herbert didn’t look so hot in primetime last year, so give me Gruden and the Raiders. And give me the over. All the overs in primetime, please.
PICK: Raiders +3.5
Image Credit: Imagn