Raybon's Rollout: NFL Week 15
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
As the weather gets colder and we see less games with high totals, we’re going to see more and more DFS players build around expensive stud RBs. This column will focus on affordable stacks that you can either use to fill holes around stud RBs or to fit a bunch of overlooked mid-ranged plays around. It will also suggest a couple of leverage options off of the popular stud RBs.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Carson Palmer + WR J.J. Nelson + TE Jermaine Gresham
As we saw last week, David Johnson is still capable of not scoring a bazillion points sometimes. He still had a decent game, eclipsing 100 yards and catching five passes, but that won’t cut it as the most expensive player on the slate. Is it possible for Johnson to do so again? If the Saints can continue playing lights out-run defense (they have allowed 2.85 yards per carry to RBs on 117 attempts over the past five weeks) then Johnson may end up with another good-but-not-great game.
The ultimate leverage play off Johnson would be to target the Cardinals’ passing game with the player most likely to “vulture” a TD from Johnson in the red zone (Gresham) and the player most likely to eat up a lot of potential yardage from Johnson via a big play (Nelson). Gresham, who missed practice Wednesday with a knee issue but is expected to return Thursday, is fourth among TEs in targets per game over the past three weeks (7.7) and has caught five passes in each game during that span. Nelson is likely to play almost every snap with John Brown (sickle cell) limited and Michael Floyd cut. In the two games where Nelson played 80% or more of the snaps this year, he averaged a 5.5-81.5-1.0 line on 9.5 targets. The Saints are up to 17th in run defense DVOA but are still ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA. They are also ranked 25th or lower in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs (25th), WRs (26th), and TEs (25th).
QB Colin Kaepernick + RB Carlos Hyde
A lot of ownership will likely be focused on targeting the 49ers with Atlanta’s offense, but the Falcons have been a generous defense in their own right: they are ranked 24th and 31st in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and RBs, respectively. Whereas Kaepernick got hampered somewhat by game script last week after the team got up early, that shouldn’t be the case against the Falcons, whose implied total of 32 is the highest on the slate. Hyde will get the ball regardless — he averages 19.5 touches per game despite the team’s 1-10 record in game he’s played. Since Hyde returned from injury in Week 10, 91% of San Francisco’s red zone plays have been either a Kaepernick pass/run or a Hyde run/target.
QB Tyrod Taylor + WR Sammy Watkins + WR Terrelle Pryor
The Browns pass defense is not good. It has given up multiple TD passes in 11-of-13 games and is ranked 31st in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. Taylor always had rushing upside — he’s scored on the ground in five of his past seven games — but with Sammy Watkins back, Taylor finally has passing upside to match. Watkins played all but three snaps last week and now gets to match up with Joe Haden, who is ranked 90th of 120 qualified cornerbacks in PFF’s grades. The Browns have allowed the fourth-most TDs to WRs (17) in the league.
Pryor will be lightly owned coming off a game where he admittedly played like garbage in a tough matchup with Adam Jones, but he is at his lowest price point since Week 4 on DraftKings and Week 3 on FanDuel. As bad as Robert Griffin has been, one thing he can do is throw the deep ball. Pryor has shown he can produce with pretty much any QB situation and has caught five or more passes in nine of his last 11 games, only failing to do so twice against Jones and the Bengals. The Bills are ranked 25th in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs.
RB Kenneth Dixon + D/ST Ravens
Dixon played 60% of the Ravens’ snaps last week, while (former?) committee partner Terrance West logged only 20% of the snaps. More importantly for the correlated stack with the Ravens defense, Dixon logged 11 carries on first or second down, while West handled just two. If the Ravens end up sitting on a lead late in the game, Dixon could surpass his career-high of 13 carries set three weeks ago. The Ravens defense is expected to do its part — Baltimore is a six-point home favorite and the Eagles’ implied total is under 18 points despite the fact they average 22.3 points per game. The Ravens have allowed only 13.1 points per game at home this season, the best mark in the league. The current forecast calls for rain and heavy winds, which should further enhance the prospects of the Ravens D/ST, a unit which currently ranks fourth in fantasy PPG at the position. In terms of strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, the Eagles are ranked 26th against RBs and 20th against D/STs. If for some reason the game doesn’t go as expected, Dixon comes with some built-in safety, as he has caught four or more passes in three of his last four games, including eight last Monday.
K Nick Novak + D/ST Texans
Novak is ranked fifth on the main slate and sixth overall in FanDuel points per game (9.69) and will face a Jaguars defense that allows the second-most strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing kickers (9.4 per game). Kicker production is positively correlated to point spread, and Houston’s six-point advantage is tied for fourth highest on the main slate. The case for Houston’s defense can be summed up in two words: Blake Bortles. He’s thrown a pick-six once every 3.9 games in his career, and has thrown at least one pick in 74% of the games he’s played. Per FantasyLabs, the correlation between Novak and the Texans defense is 0.55, second-highest of any kicker-defense pairing on the main slate.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
The Steelers Drawing Up Plays for Ladarius Green When He’s in the Game
No player with more than 25 targets this season has been targeted on a higher percentage of their snaps than Green’s 26.8%. Green has only played 63 snaps over the past two games, yet his 17 targets are only one less than Antonio Brown’s and seven more than Le’Veon Bell’s. As Ben Roethlisberger’s largest target, Green makes for an interesting leverage play off Bell, as it’s conceivable Green could score a TD or two at Bell’s expense. Green has the best matchup of an TE on the main slate, as the Bengals rank 31st in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Injury Situation to Exploit
Melvin Gordon’s Hip Injury
Chargers RBs have averaged 29.1 touches and 1.0 TDs per game this season, and it looks like Kenneth Farrow will step into the lead back role vacated by Gordon, with Ronnie Hillman mixing in. Farrow handled 16 carries and six receptions last week with Hillman inactive, but should still be able to push for 20 touches this week, which puts him in a great spot to pay off his price tag. His upside comes from the fact the Raiders are ranked 27th in strength-of-schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and 26th in run defense DVOA.