Raybon's Rollout: NFL Week 3
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
After Eli Manning became just the seventh QB since the 1970 merger to throw for at least 368 yards and no TDs, we’re on to Week 3.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Philip Rivers + RB Melvin Gordon + WR Travis Benjamin
In terms of combining for 75 or more points, QB + RB1 + WR1 stacks had the highest hit rate of any three-man combination on both DraftKings (7.8%) and FanDuel (2.6%) from 2013-15. The average over/under when this stack hits is above 47, and 60-70% of teams have a Vegas implied team total of at least 24. With an over/under of 51.5 and a San Diego implied total of 24.5, this stack checks both of the aforementioned boxes. All three of Rivers, Gordon, and Benjamin have high upside and will likely be popular plays, but many DFS players will be hesitant to combine a QB and RB or RB and WR in the same lineup, even though its odds of hitting are higher than a QB and two WRs.
Rivers will take on a Colts defense that is still not 100% healthy and ranks 31st in DVOA, 32nd in points allowed (73), and 30th in total yards allowed (848). Gordon played 75% of the snaps last week and racked up 27 touches last week. Most importantly, Gordon ranks second in the NFL in carries inside the 10-yard line, where 76% of all rushing TDs have occurred since the start of the 2013 season. The Colts defense has allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 1.5 rushing TDs per game through two weeks. Benjamin has been Rivers’ most heavily targeted receiver since Keenan Allen went down, catching 13-of-14 targets for 147 yards and 2 TDs. Only four players have more red zone targets (4) than Benjamin, who should benefit from playing indoors where similarly speed-oriented receivers like T.Y. Hilton and Brandin Cooks have traditionally seen increased success. Tyrell Williams flashed last week with a 44-yard TD and is also an option to complete this stack.
QB Marcus Mariota + WR Tajae Sharpe + WR Amari Cooper
Despite averaging only 16.0 points per game this season, the Titans’ implied total is above 24 for a home tilt with a Raiders team that has allowed an average of 404 yards passing and 3.5 TDs per game in 2016. Averaging 9.0 targets per game and a healthy 24.7% target market share, Sharpe may be lower owned than he should coming off a quiet game. The Raiders have already allowed 100-yard games to three different WRs, five-catch games to four different WRs, and TDs to four different WRs.
If the Titans have success against the Raiders defense, the Raiders will likely take to the air, as Tennessee is stronger against the run (ranked 8th in DVOA) than the pass (15th). Both Titans boundary corners, Jason McCourty and Perrish Cox, have PFF coverage grades under 55 (of 100), and the team has allowed back-to-back 100-yard games to primary targets Stefon Diggs and Marvin Jones. Cooper averages 10 targets per game and leads the Raiders in target market share (24.3%). After the Raiders allowed 10 catches for 180 yards and 1 TD to Falcons’ TEs last week, Delanie Walker is also in play to complete this stack in place of Sharpe.
K Andrew Franks + D/ST Dolphins
As I’ve mentioned before, the K + D/ST stack has a relatively strong correlation (.29) on par with a QB and his secondary receivers. A way to gain some leverage yet still exploit the value offered by the Dolphins, who will face (reportedly unready) rookie Cody Kessler, is to pair the Miami defense with Franks. Franks may go overlooked because he’s hardly ever in consideration as a core play, but kicker value is strongly correlated with implied team totals, and Miami’s implied total of 25.75 as of this writing is one of the highest on the Week 3 slate.
RB DeAngelo Williams + D/ST Steelers
With averages of 23.4 touches (3.75 receptions), 118.7 total yards, and 1.16 TDs in 12 starts in place of Le’Veon Bell since 2015, Williams is a weekly threat to finish as the highest scoring player on the slate. He has eclipsed the 30-touch mark in both games this season. An interesting way to leverage shares of Williams, who is likely to be highly owned, is to pair him in a correlated stack with the Steelers D/ST. On this week’s Eagle in the Sky podcast, Greg Cosell mentioned that the Steelers defense can be difficult on a young QB because they will throw looks at him that he has never seen before, particularly a “cover 2 trap” scheme that can bait the QB into interceptions in the flat (which can be the easiest to return for TDs). The Steelers defense has held two solid offenses (Redskins, Bengals) to 16 points in back-to-back weeks, while the offense has averaged 31, which puts pressure on the opposing offense to pass more. Using this formula last season, the Steelers quietly finished as a top-six fantasy defense.
RB Charles Sims + D/ST Buccaneers
Like Williams and the Steelers D/ST, pairing Sims with his defense is a way to differentiate your lineup a bit while still gaining exposure to a great value play in Sims. Over his last six games dating back to 2015, Sims averages 4.5 receptions per game, and being a sizable home favorite against the passing-challenged Rams means the game script should allow Sims to handle the 15-16 carries he’d need to reach 20 touches. Despite a strong defensive line, the Rams have been a bottom-12 team against fantasy RBs through two weeks.
As far as the case for the Tampa Bay defense: During the Jeff “7-9 s**t” Fisher era, the Rams have routinely come out flat on the road. Since 2012, the Rams average under 18 points per game and allow 27% more sacks and 26% more interceptions away from home. In Week 1, the Rams failed to score a single point against a 49ers defense that promptly got lit up for 46 the next week. The Buccaneers defense is strong against the run (2.97 yards per carry), which doesn’t bode well for the Rams since their only real way of sustaining offense is handing off to Todd Gurley, who is averaging 2.72 yards per carry himself and has yet to clear 51 yards in a game. The Bucs check all the boxes as a sizable home favorite (-5.5) facing a team with a low implied total (18.25).
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
Chip Kelly’s Up-tempo Scheme Will Increase the Seahawks’ Play Volume
The 49ers’ fast-paced offense (they rank second in seconds per play at 23.65) creates a situation where the opposing offense sees high play volume because the San Francisco offense’s exits from the field are just as rapid as its pace: the 49ers rank 30th in plays per drive (4.8) and 31st in yards per drive (20.7) this season. Last week, the Panthers rattled off 77 plays, which would be an increase of 9 over what the Seahawks currently average.
Practicing in full this week after playing through a balky ankle for the first two games, Russell Wilson can likely be had at low ownership due to the the team’s poor offensive line play and offensive struggles. Wilson, however, has overcome line struggles in the past and is in a spot that Cam Newton put up over 30 fantasy points in last week to lead all QBs.
At RB, Christine Michael has averaged 15 touches through the first two weeks with Thomas Rawls active. With Rawls (leg) still not fully healthy and the team’s projected increase in play volume, Michael could conceivably push for 20 touches even if Rawls has a role. The 49ers gave up 19 touches for 131 yards to Fozzy Whittaker last week, and there were still sixteen touches left that went to other RBs, as well as six QB runs by Newton.
Injury Situation to Exploit
The Bears’ Front-seven Injuries to NT Eddie Goldman, LB Lamarr Houston, and LB Danny Trevathan
The Bears are on a short week and lost three key cogs in their defense. As the performances of Corey Coleman and Sterling Shepard last week showed, being early to the party to a young breakout player can pay dividends in DFS. It’s only a matter of time before impressive rookie QB Dak Prescott has a breakout game. He took a step forward last week, completing 73% of his 30 passes for 292 yards (9.73 YPA) and rushing for a TD. Most importantly for his upside, he got on the same page with Dez Bryant, completing 7 passes to him for 102 yards. Over the past three seasons, top-six QB finishers in a given week have been favorites roughly two thirds of the time, have had implied totals of 24 or higher over 60% of the time, and have been at home roughly 57% of the time; Prescott checks all three of those boxes and should be able to exploit Chicago’s undermanned defense.