Raybon’s Rollout: Week 2
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the unconventional stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS each week.
The column is largely based on my intensive research on stacking and coaching tendencies, and this year I’m adding a section that features the player with the top projected percentage odds of the week to hit cash game value, which follows the same methodology I use to calculate projected odds of hitting tournament value in my GPP Leverage Score metric.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Aaron Rodgers + RB Ty Montgomery
From 2012 to 2016, there have been 63 instances of a game with an over/under of 53 or more, and in 32 (51%), the underdog has scored at least three TDs; in 19 (30%), the underdog has score four or more TDs. Meanwhile, in 20 regular season and postseason games since the start of 2016, the Packers have scored 65 offensive TDs, or 3.25 per game, and at least three TDs in 16-of-20 games (80%). In other words, the Packers offense has strong odds of scoring at least three TDs and decent odds at scoring at least four.
Because Ty Montgomery is now officially a full-time player (his 90% snap rate led the league among RBs), stacking him with Aaron Rodgers essentially guarantees a floor of having all of Green Bay’s TDs in your lineup. That means the stack can even be useful in cash games to secure all of the offensive production from one of the four “chalk” teams; the other three (Patriots, Falcons, and Saints) all have multiple RBs who could muck things up.
But this stack offers tournament benefits as well. Firstly, it offers unique roster construction, as much of the DFS public still avoids stacking a QB with his RB despite the two positions having a positive fantasy correlation. Secondly, the odds of Montgomery being Rodgers’ leading receiver are as good this week as they’ve ever been. After allowing the most receptions (109) and receiving yards (870) to running backs last season, the Falcons allowed 11 receptions, 61 yards, and a TD to Bears running backs in Week 1, and were a Jordan Howard TD drop away from allowing even more production. This stack essentially allows you to pair two high-value players while still gaining differentiation on what’s sure to be a large amount of lineups that don’t have them rostered together. Of course, you could also pair this stack with another Green Bay receiver in an attempt to monopolize all the Packers’ offensive production.
RB Marshawn Lynch + DST Oakland Raiders
Like the house of the kid whose parents were never home in high school, the Jets defense is a smash spot for running backs. The Jets allowed 190 rushing yards last week, most in the league, the most rushing attempts (42), and the fourth-most yards per carry (4.5), routinely allowing huge holes for LeSean McCoy to waltz through. It might be even worse this week. Whereas the Jets didn’t have to worry much about the Bills’ Tyrod Taylor-led pass offense, they’ll have to account for Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and Michael Crabtree. That should open things up even more for Lynch, who showed no signs of wear on 18 carries last week. In fact, in addition to the Jets matchup up a weak run defense with Oakland’s strong offensive line, the Jets will have to deal with Beastmode’s tackle-breaking ability. Among 20 running backs that played 50% or more of their team’s snaps in Week 1, Lynch’s 3.22 yards after contact per touch ranked second, per Pro Football Focus.
The more Lynch is able to gash the Jets, the more it will keep them off the field and force them into riskier passing situations when they are, which benefits the Raiders defense. Whereas Bills-Jets closed at Bills -7.5, the spread in Raiders-Jets has been hovering around a 14-point advantage for Oakland, meaning the Jets are projected be playing catch-up far more than last week against Khalil Mack and company. With the Jets traveling across the country while the Raiders are back home coming off a strong road win, the Jets true colors should show in Oakland, and it will benefit the bottom-line fantasy production of both Lynch and the Raiders DST.
Best Odds to Hit Cash Game Value
Le’Veon Bell vs. Vikings: 66% on FanDuel and 57% on DraftKings
Bell made a mockery of his league-leading projected cash game odds last week, as the Steelers offensive line failed to open up a hole that translated into more than a 5-yard gain until under 3 minutes were left in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, points per dollar is a flawed metric, and thinking in terms of probability is what we should be shifting toward as an industry. Bell’s projected odds last week implied a 27% chance of him failing to hit cash game value on FanDuel and a 34% chance of failing to hit cash game value on DraftKings, and looking at the reverse odds may actually may help put things in context in terms of how to approach player exposures.
That said, Bell again projects for the highest likelihood of hitting cash game value on FanDuel, where he’d need 17.7 points, and on DraftKings, where he’d need 23.3 points. (Note: For a complete explanation of how these baselines and odds are calculated, see last week’s column.) Bell’s odds, however, are down significantly from last week, and he only beats Melvin Gordon by a few percentage points in my model. The Vikings defense will be another tough test for the Steelers after allowing just 55 yards on 20 carries to Saints running backs last week, and though I’m bullish on the Steelers-Vikings game (listen to this week’s DFS MVP Podcast to find out why), the fact that Gordon even approaches Bell says a lot about how good of a spot it is for Gordon. In a week with so many options at lower price points, I don’t think this is a week where you have to force Bell in. Bell makes for an enticing tournament play, however, with most high-salary ownership likely going to stud QBs and receivers in the Packers-Falcons and Patriots-Saints game.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
The Jaguars’ “Hide Bortles and Play Defense” Strategy
On first or second down in the first half outside of two minutes to go, the Jaguars ran the ball 70% of the time in Week 1 while their defense went to work. The main beneficiary was Leonard Fournette, who piled up 29 touches, which was tied for the league lead. With Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley, and Melvin Gordon in Fournette’s price range on FanDuel and Dalvin Cook and Ty Montgomery cheaper than Fournette on DraftKings, his ownership is likely to be held in check despite monster volume upside, which, of course, is highly correlated to RB fantasy production. Because the Titans are a run-heavy team as well (they ran the ball 68% of the time on first or second down in the first half outside of 2 minutes to go), the game script is unlikely to get away from the Jaguars, allowing them to feed Fournette yet again.
Injury Situation to Exploit
The Cardinals’ Myriad of Offensive Injuries
Running back David Johnson is on IR with a sprained wrist, left tackle D.J. Humphries is out with a sprained MCL, and wide receiver John Brown has been missing practice with a quad injury. With a running game consisting only of stopgap solution Kerwynn Williams, the ghost of Chris Johnson, and sometimes-wideout Andre Ellington, compromised pass protection, and their best boundary receiver banged up, the Cardinals are likely to rely on quick passes to Larry Fitzgerald as a primary means of chain movement in Week 2. Fitzgerald piled up 13 targets last week and has upside for even more this week against a Colts defense that got burned for a 4-76-1line by rookie slot receiver Cooper Kupp in his first NFL game last week. The Colts’ inexperienced secondary, which starts a converted cornerback at safety (Darius Butler), a converted safety at cornerback (TJ Green), and rookie at the nickel (Nate Hairston) and other safety spot (Malik Hooker) is the perfect matchup for a crafty veteran like Fitzgerald.