The Fantasy Grout, Week 13 - GIFs
Do you pronounce “GIF” with a hard “g,” like “gift,” or with a soft one, like “gist?”
There are two camps. One, the soft “g” camp, felt they had won the war in May of 2013. The creator of the GIF, Steve Wilhite, was accepting a Webby award, and he declared:
Not so fast, Mr. Wilhite. If you were the CEO of the Oxford English Dictionary, it would be a different story. What does the opinion of some tech guy matter, regarding pronunciation? “GIF” is short for “Graphic Interchange Format.” The hard “g” truthers point to the fact that the “g” in “graphic” is not pronounced “jraphic.” Who is right?
In much the same way “it ain’t a hit until Nate Dogg spits,” we can’t come to a true conclusion about a linguistic situation until an obscure fantasy football writer weighs in. Let’s sort this out. Drumroll, Please.
Of course, it is a soft “g.” Once an acronym becomes a word, it has its own properties. The pronunciation of AIDS is “aids,” not “adds,” despite the “a” from “acquired” being a soft “a”. Acronyms take on other stand-alone noun properties as well, such as the plural of RBI, which is RBIs, not RsBI. Like the parents of a kid going off to college, you’ve just got to let acronyms do what they’re going to do.
Even if that weren’t true, there’s something to be said for wordplay. A GIF is a tiny piece of video. Very short. A “Jiffy” is a unit of time equal to the time it takes for light to travel one centimeter in a vacuum, and it’s often shortened to “jiff”. A very short video being pronounced the same way as a very short period of time is too perfect to ignore. The court of the Fantasy Grout has ruled.
Soft “g”.
Now, let’s find the low-cost, Fantasy Grout players, which allow you to fit the high-salary tiles into your lineup, and get that bankroll of yours doubled in a jiff.
RUNNING BACK
More and more, I’m spending down at running back, which makes running back the most important Grout position to me. I hit on this briefly when discussing wide receivers last week, but I think it is worth an expanded discussion here.
To start, with a scant few exceptions, yardage upside isn’t increased in proportion, as the salary rises. Last week, Mark Ingram’s upside for yardage, at $6,400 was not 68% higher than Spencer Ware’s, at $3,800. You can maximize upside per $1,000 of salary by not paying up.
In addition, running back is a lower scoring position than wide receiver, on average, and fantasy scoring, for running backs, is much more dependent on touchdowns. You’ll rarely see a 20-point back, who didn’t score. With full point-per-reception scoring and the 100-yard milestone, it’s not uncommon at wide receiver. Because touchdowns are so field position dependent, there’s a lot more variability relying on them.. Especially in cash, I want to subject as few salary dollars as possible to variability. Hence, Grout backs.
Lastly, running back scoring is also more variable, thanks to game-flow dependence. Only a special breed of back keeps scoring if his team falls behind. I have a specific memory that mirrors wide receiver usage, vis-à-vis game-flow: As a high school student, on something of a field trip, I was traveling through the University of Wisconsin campus on Saturday afternoon. I was with a student of the university and asked if he could tell if the Badgers had won. His response was “They drink in celebration if they win and in sorrow if they lose. Who knows?”
Oh, and there’s concussions, the Whammy of fantasy football. Pay down at running back!
DAVID JOHNSON, $3,400 AT STL – We’ve all been there. You’re driving down the highway, and all of a sudden, you’ve got to go. Like, Got. To. Go. You’re using the next gas station’s bathroom regardless of its condition. How nice is it when that bathroom happens to be in one of those new, pristine gas stations?
That’s how I feel about Johnson. You’re probably taking any back when he checks all these boxes:
□ The cheapest starter on the slate (presuming Chris Ellington is out and knowing Chris Johnson is)
□ A five-and-a-half point favorite
□ On a team that usually spreads the running back wealth, but by attrition, will consolidate it
□ On a full-PPR site, against the team that has given up the third most receiving yards to backs, on the eighth most receptions.
Johnson was an NFL combine darling, running a 4.5, despite his 6’1”, 225-pound frame. In week 1, his only touch was a 55-yard swing pass for a touchdown. On that play, according NFL.com, he ran faster than any other ball carrier in week 1, topping out at 22.05 mph. And, his soft hands were one of his best scouting “pluses.” He’s definitely not a “Key-On-A-Stick Outdoor Bathroom” back!
THE HEDGES
Because of the variability of game-flow and touchdowns, hedging your running back exposure can be wise. Your hedges:
JAVORIUS ALLEN, $5,400 AT MIA – Almost a Grout one-and-done, having just gotten the starting gig last week. I was surprised to see only twelve carries to Terrance West’s seven, but know that West was only on the field for thirteen offensive plays. Allen covered 61% of the snaps, including all the catch-up time. That’s what the play is here. As a road underdog, I expect Schaub to dump to Allen on any play he doesn’t want to throw an interception. If they do hand off a time or two, only one team has ceded more running back rush yards than the Dolphins.
DARREN MCFADDEN, $5,300 AT WAS – Meanwhile, McFadden has been the starter for the Cowboys since week eight, averaging 24 touches a game over that span, and he’s still $5,500-or-below. A Grout Lifer! My working theory is that DraftKings pricing considers ownership, and McFadden is the ultimate “everyone has owned him in season-long, with tepid results,” guy.
In this price range, you would never complain about that usage, but this week specifically, to get it against a team that has allowed four 100-yard rushing bonuses in their last six games is … well … a bonus, if you know what I’m saying.
JONATHAN STEWART, $5,300 AT NO – With five TDs in the last seven games, is he vulturing Cam’s scores still, or vice versa? Stewart has 20+ carries in each of those seven, but few receptions, so you do want to be careful where you use him. Here, as 7-point favorites, against the Defensively Challenged Saints (PC Term), have at it.
LESEAN MCCOY, $5,700 VS HOU – He has finally graduated from Grout pricing, but I just want to wish him well. Given his schedule the rest of the way, in Week 17, when he’s the third highest priced back, you’re going to think to yourself, “Remember the time McCoy was $5,700 against Houston?
QUARTERBACK
What other position gets 100% of non-injured snaps, regardless of price? Paying down at quarterback isn’t a terrible idea, in that regard either. Twelve quarterbacks are too spendy for us ($6,100+), in a week where 32 are slated to start. Moreover, 17 of 32 are within $300 of the $5,000 salary floor. Their new motto: QB on DK – Where Every Sunday Is Black Friday!
RYAN FITZPATRICK, $5,200 AT NYG – Reliability, with upside. Of the ten games he’s finished this year, he’s been between 14 and 19 in seven. The other three? 26, 22, and 29. He had multiple scores in nine of those ten.
Now, in a “road” game, he draws the blue New York team. “Blue” might also describe the Giants defensive coordinator, whose team has given up 36.5 more yards per game passing over the last five weeks than the second worst team over the same period. In fact, it kind of bummed me out, just looking at their numbers.
As a side note, there are so many DJs at this point. Can’t one of them, DJ Mac-and-Cheese or something, mash up this song and this song? Is that too much to ask?
RYAN TANNEHILL, $5,300 VS BAL – I’m not actually going to play Tannehill. I think there is too much uncertainty with the new offensive coordinator. I just want to point out that if you click on him, on DK, it says that 1) under the new OC, he’ll now be allowed to audible & 2) he was $7,400 week one. Yes, a $7,400 NFL quarterback wasn’t allowed to audible.
TIGHT END
SCOTT CHANDLER, $2,500 VS PHI – One of those situations where everyone is saying something, because it is true. With Gronkowski out, you plug and you play. The guy is 6’7”. He’s caught two TDs in the last three weeks, despite only playing 111 of 206 offensive snaps. The Eagles, over that span, have allowed 12(!) touchdown passes. A one-yard Chandler touchdown is worth 2.84 PT/$K, as a reference.
I’m not even going to wait for Grout for a Shout. Dibbs on Chandler!
AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS, $2,500 VS ATL – I’m not playing him either. If recent history is any guide, neither are the Bucs. I just wanted to point out that if Andrew Luck played this week, he’d be $6,700, down from his $7,000 price tag the last game he played. Julian Edelman is still listed only $700 less than his final week’s price, despite being out until the playoffs. Meanwhile, ASJ’s last price was $4,100 and has now dropped to the floor. I think DraftKings’ pricing algorithm feels the same way as we do about his 11-week absence with a shoulder boo-boo.
WIDE RECEIVER
Typically, my inclination is to spend at least in the high-$5,000s or low-$6,000s for my wide receivers. That said, I’m giving you players, not roster construction, so here are my favorite Grout options.
KAMAR AIKEN, $4,800 AT MIA – Matt Schaub’s problem isn’t an aversion to letting it fly. Heck, he led the NFL in passing yards in 2009. It’s the interceptions, but fortunately, Schaub’s INTs don’t count against Aiken. In fact, if they’re returned for scores, it just ensures Baltimore will be throwing it more against Miami.
In the three games without Steve Smith, Aiken is averaging just under 11 targets, 6 receptions for 68 yards, with two scores. To put those 11 targets in perspective, Antonio Brown is third in the NFL in targets this year, averaging 11.5 per game. So, is 11 per game good?
ANQUAN BOLDIN, $4,100 AT CHI – If you believe San Francisco will have to pass, as a 7-point underdog in Chicago, you believe they will have to pass to Boldin. In two games with Blaine Gabbert, in two tough spots, he’s averaged 9 targets, 6.5 grabs, 93 yards. In both games, his targets were at least 3 clear of the next most highly targeted 49er receiver/tight end. The sledding lightens up considerably versus the Bears.
Plus, Boldin also has some of that Darren McFadden, “everyone has owned him in season-long, with tepid results,” thing going on. Makes for low ownership. I list him here, rather than below, because his targets make him cash-worthy for me, as well.
DANNY AMENDOLA, $4,700 & BRANDON LAFELL, $4,800 VS PHI – Of those ten passing touchdowns the Eagles gave up over a 99 hour span, seven of them were to wide receivers.
TOURNAMENT DARTS
JAY CUTLER, $5,200 VS SF – Cutler’s last two outings, versus Denver and versus a monsoon (with Green Bay there as well), will throw people off of the scent. He’s been excellent this year, especially with a healthy Alshon Jeffery. The 49ers defense has been frisky of late, but like traveling with your cat, you always have less Friskies with you on the road.
DIGRESSION OF THE WEEK
Speaking of coming off a stinker, “The League” was awful last week. They inexplicably killed off the wife of their breakout comedic star Nick Kroll, rendering him humorless. Also, who was clamoring for more “Adventures of Rafi and Dirty Randy,” this time in cartoon form? Somebody I’m happy to call “Not My Friend,” that’s who!
This week’s episode though, covered the season-long versus daily dichotomy to a tee, from the irrational resentment by non-daily players to the juxtaposition of a silly trophy to real money. Also, I’m wearing a green dealer’s visor as I type this! Next week, in the series finale, I’m pulling for Ruxin to be funny again, for Pete to win the DraftKings Championship, and for a cameo from Andre’s sister Heather.
C.J. ANDERSON, $3,500 AT SD – One day it’s Hillman. The next, Anderson. I don’t know which it’ll be this week. If it is Anderson, in a plush matchup at San Diego at a low ownership…
DONTE MONCRIEF, $4,600 AT PIT – One of the underrated things about playing a Steeler or playing the Steelers, is their tendency to go for two and how that tilts the math toward more going for two, by both teams.
ERIC EBRON, $3,200 VS GB – Which streak ends first, the Warriors’ win streak or the Packers’ touchdowns allowed to tight ends streak? I’ve got the Warriors.
And with that…
