Week 1 NFL Betting Picks for Every Game
Hey, everyone! Welcome to SharpSide’s Weekly NFL Betting Breakdown. This is the first article of many where I will be breaking down my favorite football bets for every single NFL game in the current week. That includes over/under totals, point spreads, and even some prop bets.
One thing you should know is that if you were to bet every single game and over/under total each week, you are almost guaranteed to end up in the red in the long run. Vegas lines are good and Vegas makes money for a reason, but my breakdown aims to help you with this. In my breakdown, I will provide a rating next to each bet to show my interest on each one. The rating will range from 1-10. A rating of 1 means there is a very small edge, in my opinion, and this is just the line that I would pick if I were forced to. A rating of 10 means it’s one of my favorite bets of the week and I think it has a huge edge.
Keep in mind when placing bets that you should never wager more than you can afford and no matter how good the odds are you will basically never find something that is a “sure thing,” unless you actually have a friend in the mob who is literally breaking some legs (if you do, you either need to report that person to the authorities immediately or you need to start feeding me those bets and never tell me the reason why for my own legal reasons!).
Now, let’s get started breaking down the lines for Week 1 of the NFL season.
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)
Over/under: 44.5
My Pick: PHI (-1) – rating 4/10
My Pick: Over 44.5 – rating 3/10
The line for this game has moved in Atlanta’s favor gradually in the last few months and that mostly has to do with the news of Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery not being in this game. At this point, both the under and the spread seem to be about where they should be and there is little advantage to be had. Both teams run at a slower pace and although this Philly team did just win the Super Bowl with Foles at the helm, at all likelihood the squad still isn’t better than this Falcons team at full health.
Since home field advantage is about three points in the NFL and Atlanta is historically much worse on the road due to playing in a dome at home, I’m giving the slight edge to the Eagles in this matchup.
As for the over, these are both decent offenses, but these teams play at a slow pace and Philadelphia has one of the better defenses in the league. I’m giving the slight edge to the over because both offenses are well above average.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) at Cleveland Browns
Over/under: 44.5
My Pick: CLE (+4) – rating 7/10
My Pick: Under 44.5 – rating 4/10
As we all know, Cleveland has drastically improved over the offseason, and if it weren’t for Hue Jackson coaching them they might have a decent shot at posting a winning season for the first time since the creation of the Model T.
Cleveland comes into the game as a four-point dog at home, which to me is far too much when you consider everything. Le’Veon Bell will not be playing this game, in all likelihood, and I am not under the same agreement that any running back can fit in this system. Ben Roethlisberger has been historically bad on the road throughout his career, and with the improvements on the offensive and defensive side of the ball for the Browns, I see the likely outcome of this game as Cleveland winning outright for the first time this century (this is an exaggeration, but it’s somewhere in that range).
The under in this game is strictly due to the absence of Bell and the overall bad weather conditions that will likely force the run game to be in higher frequency than the pass, which should also favor the Browns with Bell not suiting up and the three-headed monster in the Browns backfield of Carlos Hyde, Nick Chubb, and Duke Johnson.
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
Over/under: 46
My Pick: SF (+6.5) – rating 2/10
My Pick: Under 46 – rating 7/10
Look, the spread on here is damn near perfect, with a slight edge to San Francisco. If the line were at 7 or 7.5, then I’d take the points with the 49ers and probably give it a 6 of 10 rating (so, be on the lookout for line movement). Minnesota is the home team and the much better team. Yes, I get that Jimmy Garoppolo played great when he played for San Francisco last year and they have a good coach and some good pieces on offense and defense, but playing on the road against one of the best (if not the best) teams in the league just isn’t enough for me to go heavy on the Niners.
The reason I like the under on this game is simply because I don’t believe that the Vikings offense will be as good this year with Kirk Cousins and the Vikings defense is too good to reasonably assume that San Francisco is gonna be able to put up 20 or more points. Expect this game to be somewhere in the 23-17 range with the Vikings winning.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Over/under: 48.5
My Pick: CIN (+3) – rating 4/10
My Pick: Under 48.5 – rating 7/10
I am a lot lower on the Indianapolis Colts offense and a lot higher on the Cincinnati Bengals defense than most people this year. Yes, Andrew Luck has come back, but he probably has some rust to shake off and doesn’t really have a whole lot of weapons to work with outside of T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle. This Cincy defense was in the bottom half of the league in DVOA last year, but against this team without many weapons I expect them to be fine.
In my opinion, this will be a low-scoring shootout that will probably end in the 20-17 range, so I’m taking the under and the points with the Bengals.
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
Over/under 40.5
My Pick: BUF (+7.5) – rating 4/10
My Pick: Under 40.5 – rating 4/10
A lot of people are really high on Joe Flacco and really low on Nathan Peterman, but I think realistically the opinion on both these guys will regress towards the mean. Peterman was terrible in the limited action he saw last year and is a downgrade from Tyrod Taylor, but it’s not drastic and it’s a small sample size.
This Bills team will still have LeSean McCoy as the focal point in their offense and even with a Ravens defense that was top 10 in run DVOA last year and top three in pass DVOA I still don’t expect this game to be a blowout. This game likely ends as a 21-14 score with Baltimore coming out on top. I’m not real high on either of these bets, so don’t go overboard.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at New York Giants
Over/under: 43.5
My Pick: JAC (-3) – rating 7/10
My Pick: Over 43.5 – rating 2/10
With the New York Giant’s healthy now at wide receiver, and with a shiny new toy for the offense in Saquon Barkley, this team will be a giant improvement over last year when the offense had their top three WR weapons all injured for a large quantity of the season. But, I still don’t think this game stays very close.
Even giving the Giants three points for the spread and factoring in three points for home field advantage, the Jaguars are just a much better team. Their defense was the top in the league last year and nothing will probably change this year. The offense may be able to put some points up on the board, but Blake Bortles and Leonard Fournette will be able to do so much better on the other side (the Giants were below average for both pass and run DVOA). I’m taking the over by a hair and the Jaguars minus the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9)
Over/under: 49.5
My Pick: NO (-9) – rating 1/10
My Pick: Under 49.5 – rating 2/10
Look, I could see this game turning into a complete blowout and the New Orleans Saints putting up 49 points by themselves. The Buccaneers aren’t great, they’re without Jameis Winston, and the Saints were one of the top offenses in and defenses in the league last year. Also last year, the Bucs were below average in both.
Generally, though, you rarely want to take a team giving away nine points. In all likelihood, this spread and over/under is a virtual coin flip, which if played 100 times would likely end around 50 times on both sides. I’ll give a slight edge to the Saints and the under here, but it’s very, very slight, hence my ratings.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Over/under: 51
My Pick: NE (-6.5) – rating 2/10
My Pick: Under 51 – rating 7/10
Everyone is on the Deshaun Watson hype train because of what he did last year, but I’m not. This Houston team may have played really well with him under center, but he’s coming back from injury and he’s playing one of the best teams in the league in one of the hardest environments. I don’t expect the Texans to keep it too close, but when you consider that the Patriots are without much depth at wide receiver they may not be able to put up a whole lot of points. I’m giving the slight edge to the Patriots here, but I love the under in this game as I could easily see it turning into a 24-17 affair.
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins
Over/under: 45
My Pick: TEN (-2.5) – rating 6/10
My Pick: Over 45 – rating 5/10
Neither team here has made that much of a drastic difference between this year and last year in terms of bettering themselves, although there are a decent amount of personnel differences. Last year, both teams were below average in defense DVOA. On the other side of the ball, the Titans were average in offense DVOA while the Dolphins were below average. The Dolphins lost Jarvis Landry and will likely struggle a whole lot more in this matchup than the Titans will. I’m taking Tennessee minus the points and taking the over here.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Over/under: 48
My Pick: LAC (-3.5) – rating 5/10
My Pick: Under 48 – rating 7/10
Immediately when you look at this game after giving the Los Angeles Chargers a three-point advantage for home field advantage it looks like the Chargers are the clear favorite. In my opinion, the Chargers are a much better team. They have a better offense that should run a whole lot more efficiently this year considering they seemed to have figured out that running on first down everytime is not going to work no matter how hard they try, and they have a significantly better defense. The Chargers made some additions in the offseason and got some of their players healthy, other than Hunter Henry, and should have a better secondary and wide receiver core.
The only reason I’m not giving the Chargers a higher rating is because their home field advantage isn’t as significant as most teams in the NFL and there’s an extra half point on the spread when many of their games over the last two years have been won or lost by three. This is just a spot where if the line for some reason drops below three, then you need to pounce immediately.
As for the under, both teams are better defensively than the public gives them credit for. While both teams have good offenses, I expect this to be a much more defensive game than offensive and an over/under of 48 is way too high when considering the caliber if these defenses.
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-3)
Over/under: 43
My Pick: DEN (-3) – rating 10/10
My Pick: Over 43 – rating 10/10
This game right here is by far the worst line by Las Vegas this week. Both of these teams are known as defensive juggernauts, but this isn’t nearly the case anymore. Seattle will be without Richard Sherman and Cam Chancellor this year, and Earl Thomas just reported to the team on Wednesday. Even if Thomas does play, he will probably not have the same impact he has had in the past.
Denver, on the other hand, has gotten worse on the defensive side of the ball this year and has a huge upgrade on the offensive side of the ball. Case Keenum is an above-average quarterback and should fit perfectly into this offense. He has two great wide receivers to work with, much like he did in Minnesota, and the running game is likely to be much better this year too that can be aided by a better passing attack taking some pressure off the run. Seattle’s offensive line is still terrible, Doug Baldwin isn’t 100%, and the Seahawks running game is still going to be near the bottom of the league. Really, the only thing the Seahawks have going for them is Russell Wilson. While he may be able to get them close in some games, the Seahawks as a whole have been terrible on the road his entire career. The Broncos have a significant home field advantage playing at altitude with their crowd.
These are my two favorite bets of the week. If you only pick two lines to bet on, then it should be the Broncos minus the points and the over.
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Over/under: 42.5
My Pick: CAR (-3) – rating 3/10
My Pick: Under 42.5 – rating 1/10
Neither of these teams have made much of an improvement since last year, other than Ezekiel Elliott not being suspended, and realistically the Cowboys probably just had a down year last year in a tough division. Both these teams run the ball a lot and play at a slow pace, so I don’t expect this to be a high-scoring affair, but the over/under isn’t that high. Both teams are fairly evenly matched, so when considering Carolina’s home field advantage three points is around the right line. Overall, this is a stay-away spot for me, but if I were forced to pick, I would take Carolina and the under.
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-1)
Over/under: 44
My Pick: ARI (-1) – rating 8/10
My Pick: Over 44 – rating 2/10
Both these teams were average last year, but I’m expecting a whole lot more out of the Arizona Cardinals than I am the Washington Redskins. This year, the Cardinals get back David Johnson and they’ll be working with a QB that is way better than anyone lining up under center last year. Say what you want about Sam Bradford, but when he’s played the last few years he’s actually done fairly well. Arizona ranked first in run DVOA last year and 10th in pass DVOA, while the Redskins ranked 29th and sixth, respectively.
I’m disregarding their offensive grades from last year because these offenses are both dramatically different with new QBs and RBs, but the Cardinals will likely be a above-average offense and the Redskins will likely be below average, in my opinion. Of course, I could be wrong, but we’ll see.
When factoring in the Cardinals home field advantage, a one-point spread is way to small and I suggest hammering it. The over, on the other hand, could go either way. I’m slightly in favor of the over, but not a ton.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Over/under: 47.5
My Pick: CHI (+7.5) – rating 2/10
My Pick: Over 47.5 – rating 2/10
Look, if you take John Fox out and replace him with anyone, then your team is probably better. With the addition of Allen Robinson, more experience for Mitch Trubisky, and Matt Nagy at the helm, the Chicago Bears are going to be a much better team this year. The line for this game opened at -9 and has been bet down to -7.5, where it should probably be. The Green Bay Packers are a great team and Aaron Rodgers is a great quarterback who is great at home, but this isn’t as much of a mismatch as you’d think.
The sharps are on the side of the Bears here and so am I.
The over on the game is strictly because I am not terribly impressed with either defense and really like both offenses this year, but the line is likely where it should be, so I can’t suggest betting anything on it for the purpose of winning money.
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Over/under: 45
My Pick: DET (-6.5) – rating 1/10
My Pick: Under 45 – rating 2/10
I don’t expect either of these teams to play at a high pace, considering Jim Bob Cooter is the offensive coordinator for Detroit and rookie Sam Darnold at QB for the Jets, so I think the under for this game is the best bet. But, this is another stay-away game for me.
The Lions were an above-average team last year, but aren’t as bad of a team as the 6.5-point spread would lend itself to. Overall, I’m takin the under because of the slow pace of the game. I’m taking Detroit because of Matt Patricia being the head coach and Darnold being the QB. Just stay away from this game.
Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Oakland Raiders
Over/under: 49.5
My Pick: LAR (-4) – rating 9/10
My Pick: Under 49.5 – rating 4/10
The two teams with probably the most ridiculous offseasons happen to be playing in the same game on Monday Night Football in Week 1. The Los Angeles Rams obviously added a ton of depth here – Brandin Cooks, Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, and Ndamukong Suh – and made drastic improvements on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.
The Raiders, on the other hand, added Jon Gruden as coach and Jordy Nelson at wide receiver, along with a few other pieces, and got rid of Michael Crabtree and Khalil Mack. Overall, I think that although Gruden might be an upgrade as a coach, he has been out of the coaching game for years and will likely have some growing pains at first.
I think the Rams may actually be the best team in the league when you include their great young coach, Sean McVay, and the Raiders will be a middle-of-the-road team. This line opened as a pick’em and was immediately hammered, but still offers a lot of value. Even with the Raiders home field advantage, I still expect this game to be a blowout by the Rams and this is one of my favorite bets of the week. The over/under, on the other hand, is likely way too high considering the Rams stout defense, so I’d take the under by a decent margin.