Week 10 - And The DFS Dating Game
My uncle only had one girlfriend – ever.
He married her over thirty years ago. They’re still married today.
My dad took a different path than his brother when it came to the ladies. He had lots of girlfriends in high school, in college, and after college. He did not settle down and marry my mom until he was in his thirties. They married in 1981, and they’re still married today.
Two different paths. The same result.
I’m not going to drag you along for several paragraphs before I show you how I’m tying this into daily fantasy sports – I’ll just come right out tie this in:
There are some weeks when things on your NFL rosters just come together, and everything settles into place nicely. On these weeks, you become very much like my uncle – meeting the girl of his dreams and never dating anyone else. You see the team you like, you put it in place, and everything is right.
Other weeks, you need to “date around.” On these weeks, maybe everything you try does not quite seem to work; maybe you settle down for a bit with different groups of players, and each new group you settle down with feels like “the right one”…until you think about things some more and eventually realize that you don’t quite have it right. On these weeks, you are likely to be more like my dad: spending more time in search of “the right one,” and being willing to keep trying new player combinations before you hit on something that’s right.
Ohhhh, all so optimistic, right? – “Until you hit on something that’s right,” as if we can simply build a team, know that it’s right, and move on with our week. And sure, we have all had those weeks in which things on our roster click into place and we pretty much know we have a solid roster right away (even if we end up overthinking things and tinkering our lineup to death until it is no longer a solid roster – and we are left looking back at the end of the weekend saying, “Why did I not just stick with the team I knew was solid? – that team would have done so well!”), but there are a lot more weekends when we never really know whether things are “right” or not until the weekend gets underway and we see how our team performs.
So let me go back to the story of my uncle and give you a few more details…
My uncle is smart – like…really smart. As in “rocket scientist” smart. As in…he’s an actual rocket scientist. (Okay, so technically he’s an astrophysicist – but that’s splitting hairs.) In high school and college, he was far more interested in studying astronomy and making his buddies laugh than he was in chasing girls. But when he met his future wife, he knew right away that he had found the woman he wanted to marry.
Let’s pause for a second and bounce back over to daily fantasy sports. Have you ever had a lineup like this? – a lineup that came together quickly and easily, and once it was in place, you absolutely knew it was a great lineup? That’s basically the way things were for my uncle (though…with a decision that was ultimately a lot more important than “which real-life players will I use on my fake team this weekend?”). He started dating this “girls of his dreams,” and before long, he let her know that he wanted to marry her.
Here’s the wrinkle in this story, though. You ready for it?
My aunt was not on board. She loved this funny, nerdy guy; she thought he was the right guy for her. But she was concerned about the fact that she was the only girl he had ever dated. How could he know she was the one for him if he hadn’t dated anyone else? How could he be certain that he was making the right decision if he never even considered other options?
And so – seriously – she forced him to date other women. She told him, essentially, that she would not agree to marry him until he had first dated other girls to make sure he knew what he wanted.
If I remember the story correctly, he went on a few dates with a few different girls, and finally, he returned to the girl he knew he wanted – his future wife – and told her he had no doubt in his mind. He wanted her.
There have been three weeks this season in which I ended up with a team at the very beginning of the week and felt that team completely click in place, to where I knew I could feel comfortable rolling that team out there in cash games and tourneys. One of those weeks, my wife and I were in India, and I spent our eight hour cab ride to and from the Taj Mahal staring out of the window and thinking through this team and challenging everything I was thinking about this team and everything that caused me to really like this team. I considered other options; I tried to talk myself off the plays I had on this team; I tried to convince myself that alternate player combinations would actually provide a higher floor/ceiling combo. I “dated around,” even though I already felt I knew what I wanted. By Sunday of that week, I returned to “the only girlfriend I’d had” – the team I had hit on at the very beginning of the week – and I told this team, “I’m ready to settle down.” That week, I finished at the top of double-ups and had a really nice weekend in tourneys.
There was another week this year, however, when I started challenging my thinking on things – a week in which I began to “date around” – and I soon realized: there were even better “fits” for me that week than the original team I had hit on. By the time Sunday rolled around, I had kissed goodbye to that original team, and I had settled down with something new. That week, I finished at the top of double-ups and had a really nice weekend in tourneys.
This current week – Week 10 – I also hit on a team at the beginning of the week that I really liked a lot. I am spending the rest of the week challenging everything I think about that team – “dating around” to see if there is any other team I “click with” more.
If I never find anything else to settle down with on a week such as this, I’m happy to return to the team that fell easily into place at the beginning of the week – recognizing that this team is the right team for me. If, however, I find something that “clicks” even more fully, I am happy to move on.
“Okay,” you might be saying, “that’s great and all, but I almost never have those teams that ‘click’ into place. How can I know when I’m supposed to stop and settle down with a team?”
Let’s return to our real-life examples. Let’s take a look at my dad – going beyond “the surface” of his story, just as we did with my uncle.
My dad is a smart guy. Like, really smart. Like, same brains as my uncle smart. But in high school and college, he was more interested in growing out his hair and playing electric guitar and listening to Cream and The Beatles and Jimi Hendrix than he was in studying up on astronomy (or on anything at all). He was also more interested in dating different girls than in “picking one girl and sticking with her for good.” In his 20s, he did get married. That marriage did not work out. He and his wife got divorced, and my dad went back to the drawing board and started over again.
I do not want to trivialize something such as a failed marriage by mindlessly comparing it to something as fleeting as daily fantasy sports, but I do think there is a parallel here: sometimes, nothing “clicks” in our thinking with a DFS team. Sometimes, we “date around” for an entire week – looking at different players, trying different roster combinations, and finally, as Sunday dawns, we make a decision and stick with it and hope it works.
Sometimes, that decision does not work. But what do we do? We bounce back. And if nothing “clicks” right away the next week, we start “dating around” once more, hoping we hit on something that works out this time…
And sometimes, nothing clicks at all. And that does not mean we have failed to find the right team for us that week.
When my dad met my mom, he thought she was pretty cute. He met my mom’s roommate the same night; he thought she was pretty cute as well. He hung out with both of them that night and liked a lot of things about them, and as my dad was still “dating around” at the time, he came up with a plan: he would send flowers to their apartment – with the flowers labeled as coming from him, but without a particular recipient designated. Whichever girl thanked him first, he would ask her out on a date.
My mom thanked him first.
He asked her on a date.
More than thirty years later, they’re still married.
And sometimes, this is how our rosters come together. Sometimes (most of the time!), we date around and date around and date around, and nothing ever “clicks.” When this happens, the best we can do it take what we know we are looking for, find a roster that fits these things, and commit. Hey – it may not work out! But the more experience you have in “The DFS Dating Game,” the more you will come to know exactly what it is you are looking for in a roster you can “settle down with,” and the more capable you will be of saying, “You know what? – I don’t know with absolute certainty that this roster is right, but I know it has all the things I’m looking for, and I’m willing to close my eyes and take the risk.”
Who knows – thirty years later, you may still be talking about that roster that changed your life forever.
QUARTERBACKS
Editor’s Note: Johnny Manziel is expected to start at QB this Sunday.
Josh McCown v Steelers: There are three quarterbacks this week I feel can come close to matching the expensive guys in a “raw points” sense, while far surpassing the expensive guys in a points-per-dollar sense. Josh McCown is the sneakiest of these plays, as he is a guy everyone hates to even think about rostering. McCown has played extremely well this season against non-elite pass defenses, and the Steelers are very much a non-elite pass defense. If McCown is healthy enough to start this week, he deserves very strong consideration for a spot on your DFS roster.
Blake Bortles at Ravens: Get your Blake Bortles today – now available in non-garbage-time flavor! Bortles is quickly and steadily improving as an NFL quarterback, and against a Ravens defense with poor coverage and (more importantly for Bortles) very little in the way of consistent pass rush, there is every reason to love him this week. The Ravens are strong against the run and awful against the pass, which is our favorite set of circumstances for targeting a quarterback. Don’t be scared off by the name “”(player-popup)Blake Bortles”:/players/blake-bortles-18186” or the name “Jaguars.” Realize that this is a very strong spot.
Derek Carr v Vikings: Don’t be afraid to go back to the well on this one. In much the same way that going back to Andy Dalton each week at his too-low price was not “chasing points,” but was instead just plain smart DFS play, rostering Carr while his price remains suppressed is an excellent play. While most people continue to get tricked into valuing Carr based on what his price says, you can realize that Carr is genuinely playing like one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. This is not the easiest matchup, but the price makes it far easier for us to feel comfortable with the idea of “settling down” with Carr.
RUNNING BACKS
Darren McFadden at Buccaneers: There are five running backs this week who are practically guaranteed to see 24 or more touches – including goal line touches and pass game work. Given the “things I look for” when trying to find players to marry for the weekend, I have a hard time justifying any other running backs when there are five guys available who hit all these marks. McFadden has the toughest matchup of the bunch, but he’s also generally the cheapest of the bunch. He continues to be an extremely strong play.
DeMarco Murray v Dolphins: Although the Eagles try to get Ryan Mathews eight to 12 touches each game, they run the ball enough (and call enough run plays) that Murray has still seen at least 20 touches in four consecutive games, with 24 or more touches in three of those games. The Dolphins have continued to struggle against the run, and this is a great spot for a big game from DeMarco.
Mark Ingram at Redskins: Last week, everyone loved Mark Ingram. Ingram got 26 touches and was fairly unlucky that he did not end up with two touchdowns as well. Now, because he did not get those touchdowns – and because his fantasy output ‘disappointed” compared to expectations – everyone is ready to jump ship. Ingram is still going to be heavily involved, this is another great matchup, and if you liked Ingram last week, you should like him just as much this week. This is a prime spot for him to put together a big game.
DeAngelo Williams at Browns: The only concern here is the Browns loading up in the box to stop the run with Landry Jones at quarterback. The fact that the Steelers have Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant should help matters a bit, though, and this is still a running back who will see a good 24+ touches against one of the worst run defenses in football. Sometimes, there is no need to overthink things.
Todd Gurley v Bears: While the Bears get so much attention for how bad their pass defense is, most people are overlooking how bad their run defense has been this season as well. That will probably be a topic of conversation over the next few weeks, as we single out running backs playing the Bears and say, “Remember what Gurley did to them in Week 10?”
WIDE RECEIVERS
Kamar Aiken v Jaguars: In my “core four” blend of talent, matchup, opportunity, and price, the latter three elements sometimes trump talent. Aiken is not the most talented receiver, but with Steve Smith out, he will see lots of opportunity, he is in a great matchup against a poor Jaguars pass defense, and his price is as low as it will be for the rest of the season.
Stefon Diggs at Raiders: Last week, some of the rankers I respect the most had Diggs as a Top 10 PPR play…against the Rams. What? (I even saw Diggs ranked as high as number one!) Now that he had a disappointing game (against the Rams!!!), most of these same rankers have dropped Diggs back down to the lower teens in their rankings. This is the same player that a lot of smart people thought was a borderline top-ten play against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL last week; now that he’s playing one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, we should absolutely be considering him a borderline top-ten play. At his price, this makes him an extremely attractive option.
Michael Crabtree v Vikings: You could substitute Amari Cooper for Crabtree and the assessment would be the same. Captain Munnerlyn is the strongest link of the Vikings’ secondary, and he never leaves the slot. Cooper and Crabtree spend most of their time on the perimeter. This is a great spot for each guy, and I fully expect one of them (and maybe both of them) to put together yet another big game.
Allen Robinson at Ravens: Robinson is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, and he is pretty much a lock for nine or more targets against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Sometimes, it’s just that easy.
Randall Cobb v Lions: Take everything I said about Robinson above, and remove the part about “pretty much a lock for nine or more targets.” Still, Cobb is an extremely talented receiver facing one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL – with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. I’m still a bit nervous about using Cobb in cash games, but he makes for a strong tournament play…and heck, he might even make for a strong cash game play as well.
Julian Edelman at Giants: Especially if Prince Amukamara returns for the Giants this week, the way to attack them through the air is over the middle, rather than on the perimeter. This is where Julian Edelman does most of his damage. With this game being played on the road for the Patriots, and with it expected to remain decently competitive, Edelman could end up being a big part of the Pats’ aerial attack. What’s more, he may go somewhat overlooked, as it has been a while since he has had a really huge game.
TIGHT ENDS
Jordan Reed v Saints: The Redskins are going to have to pass a lot in this game, Jordan Reed is Kirk Cousins’ favorite place to pass the ball, and the Saints are awful at covering tight ends. Everything lines up perfectly for Reed to put up one of the top tight end scores on the weekend.
Gary Barnidge v Steelers: With Josh McCown expected to be back in this one, we can expect Barnidge to be around eight or nine targets, including looks in the red zone. Barnidge does not quite have the “big play” upside that Reed has, but he stands right alongside Reed as one of the top tight end plays on the weekend.
Jimmy Graham v Cardinals: In tournaments, Graham could be a very strong play, as the Cardinals’ blitz scheme makes them vulnerable to pass catchers going over the middle of the field – which means they will be vulnerable to Jimmy Graham. His usage has been too inconsistent this season for us to feel comfortable targeting him in cash games, but his price has dropped and he has fallen out of favor with the DFS community, which means his ownership will be down. This could end up being a great place to “zig” while others are “zagging.”
Hopefully, you find the love of your life this week in DFS. Let’s plan to meet up with one another at the top of the leaderboards, and you can tell me all about it.