Week 12, In Which You Will Not Read This Anyway
I’m not a businessman.
(I’m a business, man! (Not really. (Crap! – Jay-Z is not the rapper I would have chosen to quote. (Any guesses as to whom I would have chosen? There are two right answers. Guess in the comments if you want. I’ll answer in the comments on Saturday if anyone guesses. (This will be a lot of parentheses I have to close. Ready?)))))
Let’s start over.
I’m not a businessman.
Six or seven years ago, when I first started taking steps to tackle freelance writing full-time, I was pretty excited that I was finding a lot of projects that worked out to $15 an hour. (I’m sure the people hiring me were pretty happy, too – especially considering I work a whole lot faster than most writers, and was taking on jobs on a “per project” basis, rather than a “per hour” basis; the work they got from me at $15 an hour was probably about like paying $8 or $9 an hour to most other options.)
Bear with me. I’m writing this at midnight, and I just caught a second wind that makes me feel like I’ve downed about eight cups of coffee. The joy of writing is strong with me right now! These are the times when I’m likeliest to entertain…but these are also the times I am likeliest to ramble. It’s like I’m your crazy uncle at Thanksgiving dinner or something, telling you about how (censored story that a friend of mine actually heard from his own crazy uncle a few years back involving copulation and illegal substances). I’ll get to my point here, though – I promise. I just need to enjoy typing for a bit first…
When I started finding these “lucrative” freelance jobs (“I’m making as much money working from home as I was making as a valet driver on the overnight shift at the airport!!!”), I told my old roommate – who is a businessman – all about how cool it was that I was making $15 an hour writing articles and whatnot. My buddy immediately shifted into businessman thinking. He told me that he had found a “personal assistant” service online through which you could hire people for work for $10 an hour. “Let’s outsource your writing to these people, and you don’t have to do any work and can get that extra $5 an hour for yourself.”
I can’t imagine the quality of work being provided by these personal assistants at $10 an hour, but even besides that, the simple idea of managing other people made me absolutely cringe. I’m not a businessman. I don’t have an interest in building an empire of low-quality writers to do my work for me, even if that means making money. I told my buddy, “I’d rather provide quality work myself and hope for bigger opportunities down the road in this area than outsource this work to others. And anyway, I really hate working with other people. I don’t have any interest in running this like a business.”
It turns out, that was a good idea.
If I were a businessman, however, doing things the other way could have been a good idea as well. I’m sure I could have grown things to a point where I was managing a handful of writers and providing work directly to them and making money myself by doing nothing more than connecting writers with work. Sure – great. But I would have hated that.
Sometimes, though, being a businessman wouldn’t be so bad. For example: I’ve talked before about my first novel. I’ve told you that my long-term goal, as an author, is to be considered one of the most important authors of my generation; I’ve told you that I want to write books that “literary snobs” will be able to appreciate…while also striking the difficult balance of making these books appealing and entertaining and enjoyable to the general public. My debut novel missed the mark on that first point (as a literary snob myself, there are plenty of things – years later – that I wish I had done differently in that book), but I’m comfortable saying that it hit the second point pretty well. Just the other day, someone stopped me in Starbucks to tell me how much they loved that book – how they read it in two sittings and could hardly put it down. I got that a lot when the book first came out. It was always “non-readers” who had this reaction. It’s funny: those are usually the types of books that sell really well – books that are maybe flawed in a number of areas where literary snobs will notice, but that are nevertheless enjoyable and compelling and easy to read. If I were a better businessman, there is a chance that novel would have sold really well.
But I’m not.
That’s evidenced by the fact that I am choosing today – Thanksgiving, when most of you will probably not be on RotoGrinders – to write this particular article.
What is this particular article?
It’s an article I’ve been wanting to write for a while.
I’ve been wanting to answer to the question, “Why do you share your advice with others?”
This is a fair question. The assumption (which I absolutely understand) is that I must either be feeding people bad advice to throw them off the plays I plan to play (if you ever look at my teams, you know this is not the case, as I am very honest with you about the guys I like the most and actually plan to roster), and if that’s not the case, that I must be a losing DFS player, so I try to scrape together some money by writing articles instead (also not the case; I’m 8-3 through 11 weeks of double-ups this NFL season, and…while I don’t really think it’s right to talk about money specifics, let’s say I could lose every week the rest of this NFL season and still have made quite a bit more in NFL than I could have made over an entire year working 40 hours a week when I first started with my freelance writing).
So, then – why do I write DFS articles (such as this one) that give away some of my plays, and why do I write DFS articles (such as the NFL Edge) that reveal my entire thought process, and – perhaps most importantly of all – why do I write DFS courses for RotoAcademy that reveal the most important building blocks of my DFS process?
Here are a few answers to those questions:
1) “Guaranteed money” is always +EV. In other words: money I make for writing my articles or for writing my courses is always a great play, as it’s guaranteed money. I write for a living. I enjoy writing about sports a whole lot more than I enjoy my other freelance work (of which I do very little these days, thanks to my DFS writing). So, then, why not write about sports? I enjoy doing it, it never feels like work, and it’s guaranteed money.
2) I don’t swing the needle all that much. When I strongly recommend a play, there aren’t really that many people who jump on that play just because of me. Most people (intelligently) are balancing my thoughts with their own research, and with the thoughts of others. This means that if I am the only person recommending a play, it won’t really make much of a difference in that player’s ownership percentage.
3) Even when I do swing the needle a bit, it doesn’t affect me all that much. I make most of my money in double-ups and high-dollar tourneys. In double-ups, a player’s ownership rising from 15% to 17% isn’t going to make that big of a difference in whether or not I can cash. And in high-dollar tourneys, I am generally playing against DFSers who have their own systems and approaches, and are not reading my articles anyway (and if they are, they are not allowing themselves to be swayed too heavily by my thoughts – lucky me).
4) Helping more DFS players become winning DFS players is good for DFS as a whole(!). The sustainability of DFS depends on “novice players” becoming “profitable players” over time. The more I am able to help players become profitable (or the more profitable I am able to help profitable players become), the more “permanent players” DFS gains, and the more sustainable DFS remains. There will always be fish cycling through, but we need some of the fish to become sharks in order to maintain balance. This is why I try to help people see how they should be thinking, rather than just giving people picks.
This morning, I got my numbers for November sales of my RotoAcademy courses. They’re still selling well, but my November numbers were about half of what my October numbers were.
The big reason why? I’m not a businessman.
That NBA article I wrote a few weeks back? It was huge for sales of my course on transitioning from NFL to NBA (a course in which I detail all the mistakes I made last year that led to me dumping massive amounts of money to NBA vets, and that will prevent you from making those same mistakes yourself). But that was the only NBA article I have written. In what was supposed to be Week 2 of that article, I went out with Evan Silva in New York until four in the morning at the DFS Players Conference and was too tired when I got back to the hotel to write the article (though I will say: if you ever have a chance to stay out with Evan Silva until four in the morning, do it; it’ll be a night to remember – guaranteed). The next week (last week), I was too sick to rally and write the article. This week, I again won’t be writing it, because of Thanksgiving weekend with my family in New England. I’ve probably missed out on several hundred sales of that course by not keeping up with that article.
As for my NFL courses…I swear to you, my course on Roster Construction is still the single most important thing I have ever written in the DFS realm. Honestly, I still go back and read that course myself sometimes, just to make sure my thinking is in the right place – to make sure I am following my own advice. That course is awesome! But I’ve never figured out how to properly promote it, or how to fully convey just how valuable that course truly is. The best I could come up with was mentioning that course in the intro to one of my RotoGrinders articles – which I’ve just done.
On Thanksgiving.
When no one will read this article anyway.
Hey, I’m not a businessman. But I’m doing my best.
One thing I am good at, though, is NFL DFS. So here are some of my favorite plays for this week.
Even though no one is reading this…
QUARTERBACKS
Brian Hoyer v Saints: The Saints are our “automatic upgrade” of offenses. Things should change a bit with Rob Ryan out, and maybe things will change more than any of us are expecting, as the Saints are not exactly talent-deficient on defense, and Dennis Allen is a solid coach. While these things may be true, though, the Saints will have to prove it to me before I’ll believe it. I am starting Brian Hoyer in two of my four season-long leagues this week (in one league, over Matt Ryan; in another, over any other streamer options available, as Andrew Luck is rotting on my bench), and I’ll probably be starting Hoyer in DFS as well. It’s tough to find a ceiling this high at a price this low.
Blake Bortles v Chargers: Another great place to pay down – especially in tournaments – is Blake Bortles. Outside of Jason Verrett (and Patrick Robinson on limited snaps in the slot), the Chargers’ defense has been absolutely atrocious. And sure, the main place we look to attack the Chargers is on the ground, but they have been equally bad through the air. Bortles has some of the best weapons in the NFL in Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Julius Thomas, and even though he has stumbled the last couple weeks, he has mostly looked very good in his sophomore campaign. Bortles will have low ownership, and he offers a whole lot of upside.
Carson Palmer at 49ers: Palmer is the most obvious place to pay up this week, but he is such a good play in any matchup, he deserves mention anyway – especially considering that his matchup this week is against what may be the worst defense in the NFL. The rationalization for fading Palmer comes down to the facts that A) the 49ers have played far better at home than they have played on the road, and B) you can probably get the same upside for less money. If you want to pay up for QB, though, it is highly unlikely you can go wrong paying up for Palmer.
RUNNING BACKS
This week, everyone will flock to Thomas Rawls. I like Rawls as a player (heck, how could I not like him? – I late-swapped to him last Sunday on the way to a really nice weekend), and I don’t dislike him this week. But the Steelers’ run D is really good, and Rawls makes for a nice tournament fade with his low pass game involvement against a stout run D. Everyone will also look to Buck Allen, but while he’s a solid play, he’s unspectacular. There’s a chance we can do better. Perhaps with these guys…
Tevin Coleman v Vikings: While everyone will be flocking to Rawls and Allen, hardly anyone will be on Coleman. This is, obviously, contingent on Devonta Freeman missing this week, but early signs indicate he is unlikely to get cleared from his concussion in time for Sunday’s game. If that’s the case, remember that Coleman was awarded the starting job over Devonta by coaches who had watched both guys all through training camp and the preseason. Coleman did not look good on Sunday, but he’s still a talented running back whom a couple smart coaches (Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan) saw as a great fit for this offense. If Devonta misses, we can pretty much slot Coleman in for Devonta’s touches – and those touches are a large part of what makes Devonta so valuable. I like Coleman in cash and tourneys this week if Devonta misses this game.
T.J. Yeldon v Chargers: Yeldon has only one rushing touchdown all year, and according to stats I have seen this week (though I have not sorted through game logs myself to make 100% certain this is accurate) Yeldon has only one carry from the one-yard-line this season. He is, however, getting lots of work in the red zone, and he is a lock for at least three targets (with upside for more), and he should easily see 15 rushes – all against the worst run defense in the NFL. The floor here is high, as is the ceiling. Early in the week, I saw this as a strong play that would go largely overlooked. As the week has progressed, I have noticed more and more sharp players talking up Yeldon, so the cumulative drum-beating on Yeldon from trusted minds may swing the needle on him a decent amount. Even if he is 15% to 20% owned, though, he is an extremely strong play – again, in both cash games and tourneys.
Danny Woodhead at Jaguars: The Jaguars may very well have the best run defense in the NFL. They have been allowing the fewest yards per carry for well over a month, and Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted DVOA metrics have them ranked second against the run. Also, the Chargers can’t keep teams from scoring. Also, they can’t run the ball themselves. All of this lines up to point to lots of usage for Danny Woodhead, which could mean a big day from him on Sunday.
WIDE RECEIVERS
This week, everyone will be looking for a way to pay up for two of the three most obvious, high-priced guys: Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and Odell Beckham Jr., as all three guys are in great matchups. Regardless of whether you go that route yourself or not, you will need to find some lower-priced guys to make this work. Make sure the lower-priced guys you find have both a high point-per-dollar floor and a high raw-points ceiling. Here are three guys who fit that description.
Kendall Wright v Raiders: While some will take a “wait and see” approach in Wright’s first game back, I may very well be comfortable saying, “This is the cheapest we are likely to see Wright the rest of the season, and this is a great matchup; I’ll jump on board now.” Even though the Raiders are traveling to the East Coast this week, I expect their offense to get something along the lines of “back on track.” This will lead to the Titans having to attack through the air – which works out just fine, as the Raiders are poor at stopping aerial attacks. As long as his snaps are not limited, Wright should see at least eight targets, and his upside is really nice with that sort of usage against this secondary.
Travis Benjamin v Ravens: Remember: Josh McCown being reinstated as the Browns’ starting quarterback is not a downgrade for Browns receivers! McCown has absolutely abused poor pass defenses this year – including lighting up the Ravens for 457 yards. Because the Ravens will have a hard time scoring points with no Flacco, Smith, and Forsett, I don’t expect McCown to have to throw 51 times in this one, and as such, I don’t expect quite the offensive outburst the Browns saw through the air in their last meeting against the Ravens. Even still, however, this is a great matchup for Benjamin, and he should see seven or more targets – making him a safe play with a whole lot of upside.
Eric Decker v Dolphins: When the Jets and Dolphins last played, Brent Grimes shadowed Brandon Marshall the first seven offensive snaps the Jets had, and then he got hurt. Expectations, of course, are that Grimes will shadow Brandon Marshall again, and while Grimes has not exactly been a “shutdown” presence this year, he still presents a tough enough matchup that Decker should see a couple extra looks. He is about the cheapest guy you can get for nine or more “pretty much guaranteed” targets, and he’ll have a great matchup in which to do damage with those targets.
TIGHT ENDS
Gary Barnidge v Ravens: I hate to list two pass catchers from the same team, but Barnidge is a great place to look this week at tight end, as a lot of people will look to Buck Allen on Monday night and otherwise skip over this game entirely. With the return of Josh McCown, Barnidge sees his arrow point upward, and he should have a solid floor given the targets and the matchup (Baltimore is 24th against tight ends according to DVOA).
Jordan Reed v Giants: If Jordan Reed is healthy enough to play this week (which should be the case, as he was off the Wednesday injury report entirely), he makes for one of the strongest plays on the weekend (in a point-per-dollar sense) at any position. As always, he is one of Kirk Cousins’ favorite targets, and he is facing a defense that is 22nd in DVOA against tight ends. Especially with Prince Amukamara healthy on the outside for the Giants, most of the passes for the Redskins will get funneled toward the middle of the field, which sets things up perfectly for a big game from Reed.
Tyler Eifert v Rams: Ever since Alec Ogletree went down for the Rams, they have gotten smashed by tight ends. A large part of this is that the Rams have an awesome coverage unit on the perimeter, which funnels targets toward the middle – and now that Ogletree is not there to shut down the tight end, this means a lot of targets for the tight end, and some room available for this tight end to work. While it is extremely difficult to predict targets on the Bengals, we should be pretty safe in assuming Eifert will get a lot of action this week. If he does, he’ll be a very strong play.
It’s nearly four in the morning, now. I think I’ll go to sleep.
Happy Holidays – to any of you who actually end up reading this.
Let me know in the comments which two rappers I wish I had quoted instead of Jay-Z [Note: my answer is on Page 3 of the Comments section].
Oh, and if you want to learn some of the deeper elements that can really help you toward consistent DFS success, check out my RotoAcademy courses. You can find them on the RotoAcademy tab at the top of this page.
Not a very good sales pitch, huh? I’m not a businessman. That’s the best I can do.