Week 13, In Which You Have Your Best Weekend
“Are you wearing eyeshadow?”
It was about a month ago when my sister asked me this. She had no fundamental reason to ask me this – I don’t make a habit of wearing eyeshadow, after all. But she asked me anyway, because… well, because it looked like I was wearing eyeshadow.
I blame it on the fact that I never get sick. I mean, I say I never get sick – and really, I almost never get sick. But we all get sick, don’t we?
Do you remember a couple weeks back when I mentioned a few times that I had been sick all week? There you go – we all get sick. And here’s the funny thing about it: I’m still coughing and blowing my nose a few times a day from that. I coughed as I wrote the word “coughing” – no lie. So I do get sick, sure – maybe once a year, sometimes even twice a year. But the big issue for me is not the actual sickness; it’s the fact that I am so confident I “never get sick,” I never actually do anything about it when I do get sick. When things turned the wrong way a couple weeks back, I didn’t take a few days off to sleep a bunch and get better, and in spite of my wife’s pleas for me to do so (“We’re about to be in New England for Thanksgiving – you don’t want to be sick all week up there”), I never went to the doctor for antibiotics. No thanks! I’ll get better on my own.
So – back to the eyeshadow…
As you probably recall already (dedicated reader that you are), my wife and I spent six weeks this fall on a trip to Thailand/Nepal/India. While we were in Kathmandu, Nepal, my wife got sick.
It wasn’t a “virus” sickness. It was just sickness from all the dust in the air. The streets in Kathmandu are mostly dirt, and there is still a lot of post-earthquake rubble all over the city that contributes to the dust problem. Many of the locals in Kathmandu wear dust masks that cover their nose and mouth, but apparently my wife and I felt there was no need for us to follow their lead and be smart ourselves.
By our last day in Kathmandu, my wife was coughing incessantly as her body tried to vacuum out the dust from her lungs. We were leaving Kathmandu and driving to Nagarkot (a village atop one of the mountains in Nepal), and although our original plan had been to spend a lot of time outdoors – hiking and exploring the area – we decided that we would stay in our room the first day in Nagarkot and allow my wife to rest and get better.
We arrived in Nagarkot. The view from the top of the mountain was majestic. The entrance to the hotel was rustic and beautiful, and the restaurant included a large, open-air patio overlooking the valley and the mountains. How perfect!
We checked in and started toward our room. We left the main building and crossed through a few courtyards. We went down some steps. We arrived, and we opened the door and were smacked in the face with what smelled like a room that had not been opened in ten years. I sat down on the bed; the comforter was damp.
What?
We opened the windows to try to drive out the smell of mold. We went to the gift shop and bought incense and burned it. We unpacked a blanket we had bought in Thailand and replaced the comforter with this. By evening, this new blanket was damp as well.
You see, apparently clouds have moisture in them. And apparently this village is known as something like “The place of the clouds.” This hotel had opened in the 1970s and was a grand and luxurious addition to the Nepalese tourist scene at the time; I’m sure that back then the hotel had a plan for keeping mold out of the rooms, but whatever the plan had been, it had fallen apart over time. Everything in the room was damp, and everything smelled awful. We spent three days in Nagarkot trying to figure out what we could do to make my wife feel better; between the dust in her lungs and the mold in the air, it sure wasn’t easy.
By the time we left Nagarkot, my wife was – somewhat miraculously – finally feeling better, and although the view was beautiful and we’d had some fun exploring the village and the top of the mountain, we were ready to leave. We were ready to get out of the mold – before it could affect us.
Over the next couple weeks, we didn’t think about the mold in Nagarkot much at all, but a week or so after we made it back into the States, I looked in the mirror and noticed that it appeared I was wearing eyeshadow. I then recalled that my eyes had been itching for a couple days. Of course, I said nothing; I did nothing about it.
The next day, things were worse.
The next day, things were worse again.
That’s when it hit me: I sleep each night with an eye mask of sorts (it’s not an actual eye mask – it’s actually just a neck warmer I pull over my eyes; and yes, I know that in movies it’s always the finicky old lady who sleeps with an eye mask, but cut me some slack, all right? – I go to bed at 6 a.m. most mornings and wake up at noon, so it’s nice to be able to block out the light). This eye mask had been in our room in Nagarkot, and had apparently picked up some of the mold from that room. I had then been sleeping for weeks with this eye mask – and this mold – pressed tightly against my eyelids.
You can guess what I did, right? Did I use the hydrocortisone cream my wife went out and bought? Of course not! All I did was stop sleeping with the eye mask. “It’ll all get better in a couple days.”
If you watch our GrindersLive Round Table this weekend, take a look at my eyelids. It still looks a bit like I’m wearing eyeshadow. We returned home from Asia two months ago.
I have now – at last – used the hydrocortisone cream a few times. Each time I use it (just a single application – it takes about 15 seconds), things clear up for a few days. If I went ahead and rubbed that stuff into my eyelids every day for about a week, the problem would probably go away entirely. But instead, I apply it, do nothing for several days, wait for the redness and itching to come back and get worse and worse, then apply it again.
Because, you see, I don’t get sick. So I don’t need to do anything for my eyelids, because there is really nothing wrong…
Let’s talk about DFS (hooray!).
I have mentioned before that I am a streaky DFS player. I think that most of us are streaky DFS players, honestly – and most of us probably just say this (“Yeah, I’m a bit streaky in DFS”) and never stop to wonder if there is anything we can do to break out of this.
We can call it variance if we want. That’s the easy way out. But there is also something to the idea of “being streaky” – something very real about it.
I had two separate stretches this last baseball season during which I was (literally) the top high-stakes tournament player in daily fantasy sports. One stretch lasted about two weeks (in a span of 14 days – all with single entries – I cashed in the $1k tourney ten times and finished in the top 4% or so about half the time), and the other stretch lasted about a week and a half (I had fewer “top 4% finishes” during this stretch, but I cashed in tourneys all but one day). I also had a streak during which I failed to cash in double-ups for over two weeks. Read that again if it didn’t sink in the first time. Double-ups; no cashing; over two weeks! That would be like playing all 17 weekends of the NFL season and not cashing in double-ups once.
I used to hit these stretches and say, “Yeah, I’m a streaky player.” But this summer, toward the end of that awful two-week stretch in MLB double-ups, I started really studying my lineups from before and comparing them to the lineups I was building at the time. And I started realizing I was making a ton of mistakes! And really, my lineups over this two-week stretch were a lot like “being sick”:
The first couple days I didn’t cash, it was probably just variance. But that led to me adjusting my approach a little bit. When I adjusted my approach a bit and still didn’t cash, I adjusted more. And more. And more. By the time I was two weeks into this horrible run, I was doing everything wrong – and much like my idea that “I don’t need to do anything when I’m sick; just ignore it and it’ll get better,” I just kept playing DFS the same way, with no time spent trying to fix the problems.
Once I buckled down and started focusing on turning things around, it still took a few days for me to break out of that funk. But I learned something important during that time, and it helped me this football season.
I’ve had a good football season. In fact, by the end of Week 6, I was already in a place where I could have lost every weekend for the rest of the season and still have ended up with really nice profit.
But then, in Week 7, I failed to cash in both double-ups and tourneys.
In Week 8, I turned things around in double-ups, but I didn’t cash in tourneys.
Same in Week 9.
Same in Week 10.
Of course, as a single-entry guy, it’s not mathematically outlandish for me to go four weeks without cashing in tourneys. In fact, mathematically, that would be the expectation (four weeks without cashing; one week with cashing). But throughout my NFL career, I’ve cashed in tourneys at over a 50% rate, and while you may say that’s unsustainable, I would disagree. NFL is my best sport, and on a single-entry basis, I would put myself up against anyone in the country over the sample size of a full season. Four weeks without cashing in tourneys meant there was something wrong with what I was doing – and much like my “coughing and blowing my nose for the last two weeks,” and much like my “eyeshadow,” and much like that awful stretch I had in MLB, I was simply looking at these weekly shortcomings in tourneys and saying, “That sucks. I wish I were doing better.”
Then, I stopped. I realized: Why not go to the doctor for antibiotics? Why not put on some hydrocortisone cream each day? Why not take some time and figure out what I am doing wrong in tournaments right now and see how I can correct this?
I spent a lot of time leading up to Week 11 studying my teams from the previous few weeks and trying to figure out what I could to better/differently. The same went for Week 12. In those weeks, I managed to not only cash in double-ups, but to also do well in tourneys. But I’m still “coughing” a bit, so to speak. I still have a bit of redness on my eyelids. There are still a few mistakes from those four less-awesome weeks that I have been making, and that I am trying to clear up. This week, I am continuing to focus on that. This week, I am trying to move that much closer to the flawless approach I know I am capable of taking.
This week, I encourage you to do the same.
It’s easy to say, “No, I’m not wearing eyeshadow – my eyes just got aggravated by that mold, and it’ll clear up eventually,” and it’s easy to say, “Yeah, I’ve been having a bad run lately, but it’s just variance; it’ll turn around.”
But what if you could apply hydrocortisone cream each day and make the redness go away entirely?
And what if you could decide that you are hellbent on figuring out where you can improve on your teams, and that you are going to do everything you can to make this the best week you have had this NFL season?
Listen: make this the best weekend you have had this NFL season. Study your past teams and identify your mistakes. Work hard on this week’s team until you have it just right. Don’t settle for things just “getting better on their own”; be aggressive, work your butt off, and crush Week 13 of the NFL season.
QUARTERBACKS
The chalk this week will be Cam Newton and Ben Roethlisberger. I do not dislike either guy (in fact, I like each guy a lot). But there are a few places I see where you might be able to do even better in a point-per-dollar sense. Especially in tournaments, fading the chalk and going with one of these three guys could make a big difference.
Tom Brady v Eagles: This is a great example of “paying up to be contrarian.” While most people are going to go for the savings they can get on Cam Newton against the Saints, you can take advantage of “Angry Brady” against a mess of a defense. Although the complexion of the Patriots’ offense changes entirely without Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, and this is still an Eagles defense that has allowed 90 points over their last two games. I expect a high-volume passing attack from the Patriots as the Eagles enable them to run extra plays, with lots of passes going to both Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell. Three hundred yards and three touchdowns is a very realistic expectation for Brady this week, and there is plenty of upside for him to do even more than that.
Marcus Mariota v Jaguars: This is what Adam Levitan would call a “funnel” spot, with the Jaguars’ stout run defense forcing the Titans to turn to the air if they want to move the ball down the field. The big knock on Mariota at the moment is his lack of weapons, not his talent. With Kendall Wright expected to be back to full health this week – playing a full complement of snaps – and with the Jaguars being one of the worst teams in the NFL against tight ends, there should be plenty for Mariota to work with. He was under 5% owned in the FanDuel Thursday night contests, and he could be a real difference-maker in tournament lineups this weekend.
Jay Cutler v 49ers: The only concern here seems to be game flow, as the Bears “may get out to a big lead and not have to pass a ton.” The truth, however, is that Blaine Gabbert has played pretty well against some very tough defenses, and while the Bears have improved in the secondary quite a bit, this is still the easiest test Gabbert has had. I genuinely think the 49ers will be able to keep this game close into the fourth quarter, which will mean plenty of passing for Cutler. The Alshon Jeffery play is obviously going to be a popular one, but the Cutler to Jeffery stack is also very much in play.
RUNNING BACKS
I like David Johnson a lot, as any back with that type of big-play upside and 15 to 20 touches needs to be considered when priced as low as Johnson is priced. He’s not the only cheap running back worth considering this week, though. Here are a couple cheap guys, along with a slightly pricier option that a lot of people are going to overlook.
C.J. Anderson at Chargers: The fear here, of course, is that Ronnie Hillman and Anderson will pretty much split work, and will eat into one another’s value too much. But I must ask you this question: do you really see the depleted Chargers offense taking a sizable lead against this Broncos defense? The plan of attack for the Broncos these days is “get a lead, and run, run, run.” Considering the Broncos are playing the worst run defense in the NFL, they should be able to effectively execute this plan. Although Hillman is still the “starter,” I expect Anderson to get a few more touches than Hillman this week. I expect around 33 to 35 total running back touches for the Broncos this week, with Anderson getting 18 to 20 of those touches. In fact, Anderson may very well out-touch David Johnson… in a much easier matchup.
Shaun Draughn at Bears: Multiple times this week, I’ve seen Draughn mentioned as an “interesting tournament option,” but given his usage (100% of the snaps last week) and his pass-game involvement (target totals of five, 11, and five his last three games), he is one of my favorite cash game plays of the week. The Bears are trying as hard as they can to pass the Chargers as the “worst run defense in the NFL,” and it helps us even more that Draughn operates independently of game flow. His point-per-dollar floor is as high as any running back on the weekend, and his ceiling is solid as well.
LeSean McCoy v Texans: In all the excitement over how well the Texans have been playing lately on defense, most people are overlooking the fact that they have been shining against the pass while still playing somewhat mediocre defense against the run. I respect the Texans’ defense enough at the moment that I am not certain I see McCoy as a viable cash game play – even given the large workload he will see with Karlos Williams out – but I like him a lot as a tournament play. He is likely to go under 10% owned yet again, and he has the upside to make a big dent in tournaments for those who roster him.
WIDE RECEIVERS
This week at wide receiver, I am comfortable playing the chalk and differentiating my lineup elsewhere, as the guys who set up for good matchups set up very, very well. While I could talk about Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, and Alshon Jeffery, however, I am going to touch on a few other guys who may not go as highly-owned, but who are just as strong of plays.
A.J. Green at Browns: I almost never roster A.J. Green, because his workload is so uncertain. This week, however – with Tyler Eifert doubtful for Sunday’s game – we will not only see a couple more targets going Green’s way, but we will also see his red zone usage increase. The only real concern here is that the Bengals score so many points, they won’t be throwing much in the fourth quarter; even if that is the case, however, I like Green’s upside enough in three-plus quarters of action to recommend him as one of the strongest plays on the weekend.
Allen Robinson at Titans: This is another one that is not going to catch anyone off guard, as Robinson will still see some decent ownership numbers even with all the chalk around him. I bring him up, though, because even with the “decent ownership” he is likely to see, he will not be as highly-owned as he should be. Allen Hurns is going to miss this week, which means Robinson’s high and bankable target load is going to be even higher and more bankable this week. The Titans do a great job, through scheme, of marginalizing wide receiver effectiveness, but they still lack the talent to really hold down Robinson. This is a great spot for a big game from him.
Brandon LaFell v Eagles: There is no reason to assume Danny Amendola will have a poor game, but there is also every reason to believe LaFell could outscore Amendola this week. Although LaFell has a lower floor than Amendola, as he may see eight to nine targets to Amendola’s 12 to 14, LaFell is going to see more downfield targets, and is, therefore, more of a threat for a huge game. In tournaments, it’s a worthwhile strategy to consider pivoting off Amendola in favor of LaFell – taking the lower ownership and the higher upside, and hoping LaFell puts up more points than his counterpart this week.
TIGHT ENDS
I do not plan to roster Scott Chandler this week. The idea that Chandler “gets all of Gronk’s targets” assumes that the Patriots run a set scheme and do not adjust for personnel. Furthermore, the idea that “Chandler was so heavily involved last week” ignores the fact that the Patriots made no effort to get the ball to wide receivers last week against the Broncos’ stout corners. This week, the Pats’ plan should be exactly the opposite; the Eagles are tremendous against tight ends and are awful against wide receivers, so I’m expecting six or seven targets for Chandler, and while he should have no problem putting up a solid point-per-dollar day, I see his ceiling as being extremely limited. Here are the guys I am looking to pivot to instead:
Jacob Tamme at Buccaneers: Leonard Hankerson is going to be out again this week. When Hankerson is out, Tamme sees around eight to nine targets per game. Given how low-priced Tamme is, and given his solid floor and his red zone usage, he is a much stronger play this week – in my mind – than Scott Chandler (especially as the Tampa 2 defense leaves the middle open to tight ends – giving Tamme a much better matchup than Chandler), and what’s more, Tamme will be lower-owned. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Julius Thomas at Titans: Thomas has been seeing plenty of targets lately, and the Jaguars have been getting creative in making sure Thomas gets mismatches they can exploit. With Hurns out this week, Thomas and Allen Robinson are going to be the focal point of this offense, and Thomas has a great matchup against one of the worst defenses in the NFL at defending the tight end. Thomas’ targets give him a nice floor; his red zone usage gives him a nice ceiling.
Delanie Walker v Jaguars: The Mariota to Delanie stack is a favorite of mine this weekend, as most people will be looking up to Greg Olsen at tight end (whom I also like a lot, obviously, in a great matchup against the Saints), and will therefore be leaving Delanie with lower ownership than he should have in this matchup. Delanie’s workload is actually a bit more bankable than Greg Olsen’s and his upside is the same. Considering he will be the lower-owned of the two in tourneys, he makes for a very interesting pivot.
How are you feeling? Are you sick?
Do something about it!
How have you been doing in NFL this year? Is it possible for you to do better?
Do something about it!
Let’s crush Week 13.
I’ll meet up with you at the top of the leaderboards when it’s all said and done.