Week 14, In Which We Can't Believe We Missed That
He just had a look that…well, a look that made you think, “If I ask this guy what his favorite band is, he’ll probably say Limp Bizkit.”
Not that there’s anything wrong with that…
I just wasn’t much into Limp Bizkit (or anything that sounded like Limp Bizkit) myself. As such, I was not particularly interested in whatever type of music this guy liked. When he told me I should check out Damien Rice, I thought, “Sure, I’ll do that – just as soon as I want my ears to bleed.”
But looks can be deceiving, can’t they? It took me a few months to realize that. It took me seeing a local, acoustic musician also recommending Damien Rice on his MySpace page to realize, “Oh – this Damien Rice guy might have a different style of music than I assumed.”
I gave him a listen. And I fell in love.
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I’m not a big fan of “whiny acoustic singers,” either, but there was something different about Damien Rice. There was something deep, soulful, and real – something that told you the things he was singing about were not just lyrics he had written down in the creative flow. Instead, they were his soul poured into musical form.
If you’ve never listened to Damien Rice, I would recommend Volcano from his 2002 masterpiece “O,” or 9 Crimes from his disappointing 2006 followup “9.” (The album “9” was a mess – which Rice himself freely admits; but the song 9 Crimes may have been his pinnacle.)
The dynamics surrounding Rice were funny, though. If you wanted to see him in concert, you had to catch him on one of maybe eight concert dates. And if you were hoping for new music from Rice…
You see, Rice is a native of Dublin, Ireland, and as great as he is at making music, he doesn’t seem particularly interested in making piles of money or traveling around the world (either for work or otherwise) or producing music at the beck and call of his label or the fans. He doesn’t seem particularly interested in doing much, really, beyond drinking, hanging out in Dublin, and getting into messy relationships. And because of the way his first album came together, he can easily do exactly that for the remainder of his life – because “O” was a self-produced album. When it caught fire in 2003 and sold over a million copies, a large chunk of that money went to him. He subsequently recorded “9” because he had signed a record deal (for purposes of distribution in the United States) that required him to create another album. According to an interview I read with him a good six or seven years ago, he hated that album; he felt it was exactly the type of album he had not wanted to create – a slapdash effort thrown together out of necessity, without the necessary, raw emotion poured into it.
And that was it.
The next year (2007), I regularly checked online for news of a new Damien Rice album.
I did the same thing the next year. And the next year.
I’m sure I continued to check (at least a couple times) in 2010. The female with the haunting voice (Lisa Hannigan) who sang on about half of Rice’s tracks had released her own album a couple years earlier, and I figured: “It took him four years to put together his second album, and he lost his musical partner, so it makes sense that it’s been a few years; I’m guessing we should hear something new this year.”
Nope.
And maybe I checked in 2011 to see what Damien Rice was up to.
And maybe I checked again in 2013.
Maybe I even checked at one point in 2014. But each time, I could find nothing on the guy. He had done a couple singles or covers for charitable projects. He had done two or three interviews over the years. And he had done nothing else.
Finally, I forgot about him. Until this week. When I randomly came across his Spotify page and saw that he released a new album in the fall of 2014. This album – My Favourite Faded Fantasy, produced by Rick Rubin, of all people – fails to recapture the magic of that first, raw, powerful introduction of Damien Rice to the world. Lisa Hannigan is no longer with him (her solo stuff is far too cheerful to capture the power created when she sang with Rice, and their messy breakup – both as musicians, and, apparently, as a couple – ensured they would never work together again), which messes with the alchemy his early work relied on. The pure, desperate honesty seems to not quite be there in his music anymore. But it’s still Damien Rice. There are still some shining moments. There remains an element of, “Wow – this guy…”
And of course, there was an element in my mind – listening to this guy’s new music – of, “This album came out two years ago? How on Earth did I completely miss that?”
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Every week in DFS, it seems, we have situations like this. Maybe there’s a player we were on for a few weeks, and nothing happened, so we eventually move away. Suddenly, they bust out with a massive game at low ownership, and everyone thinks, “How did I miss that?” Or maybe there’s a talented player seeing plenty of usage, yet that massive, roster-validating game has not yet shown up, so no one is really thinking about rostering this guy at all; when he goes off, everyone thinks, “How did I miss that?”
This can also happen when a guy is seeing too little usage in his offense, but is too talented for this to continue (Ladarius Green last week). This can happen when a guy has had a string of difficult matchups, or has been dealing with an injury. This can happen when a guy just plain had a bad game at high ownership; he goes off the next week at low ownership, and everyone thinks, “I can’t believe I missed that.”
Success in DFS is about identifying the best plays, sure – but even more than that, success in DFS typically ends up being about finding the best plays that everyone else is overlooking. There is a fine line in the whole idea of “being contrarian”; many people attempt to “be contrarian” by making plays no one should really want to make in the first place. But when you can instead identify the plays everyone should be on – the plays that will cause everyone to say, “I can’t believe I missed that!” – you will put yourself in tremendous position to dominate the DFS landscape.
This week, we are going to use this article to search for exactly that: a few plays at each position that just may cause the field to say, when the weekend ends, “I can’t believe I missed that!”
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NOTE: In order to isolate players about whom DFSers will potentially say, “I can’t believe I missed that,” we will be using RotoGrinders’ Premium ownership projections to get a feel for the players likeliest to go overlooked. While @ChrisGimino – who runs our ownership projections – would surely prefer that I add a disclaimer that states that ownership projections are updated through Sunday morning, and that the most accurate snapshot of all can be captured then, I’ll counter by pointing out that his projections are wildly accurate, and can be used even on Friday morning – as I write this article – to get a sense of where things are likely to land by Sunday.
QUARTERBACKS
The quarterback discussion should begin with a couple notes:
Firstly, ownership matters less at quarterback, where you can generally get 20 points without trying too terribly hard, and where there are usually only a couple guys each weekend who post the sort of game that would cause you to regret missing out. As such, your best course of action is often to identify what you feel is the best quarterback play, and to ride that play to glory.
Secondly (as of early Friday morning – before Thursday night ownership has been factored into projections), no quarterback stands out with egregiously high ownership projections. I expect this will change a bit by Sunday morning, with ownership swinging to Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston above all others – but then, I’m not the ownership guru…
In any case, two guys in particular stand out to me at this position:
The first is Kirk Cousins, who is projected for around 7% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While a full-season snapshot of the Eagles’ defense tells us that this is a team we need to be careful around, a look at the last few weeks shows a defense that is absolutely collapsing – particularly against the pass. The Eagles have allowed multiple touchdown passes in seven of their last nine games, and Kirk Cousins is practically a lock for multiple scores every week himself. There is clear 300-yard, three-touchdown upside here, and ownership is certainly not expected to be high enough for us to need to think twice about rostering Cousins in tourneys.
Ownership projections for Andy Dalton are even lower (3% on DraftKings, 5% on FanDuel). And sure, I get it – it’s Andy Dalton. I get it – the Bengals rank 23rd in passing touchdowns this year. But you know who the Bengals are tied with at 23rd? The Seahawks. You know who the chalk is likely to be this week? Russell Wilson. And you know who has an even better matchup? Andy Dalton. While there is an argument to be made for Russ having more upside because of his legs, Russ has never thrown for even 210 yards in four tries against Dom Capers’ defense. Don’t get me wrong – I like Russ, as this is not the same talent on defense for the Packers that they had in the past, even if the same mind is directing the bodies on the field. But this is to point out that Dalton and Russ have similar projections this week…and while plenty of people are likely to be on Russ, far fewer will be on the Red Rifle against a Browns defense that ranks 31st against the pass (DVOA) and has allowed more touchdowns through the air than any other team in football.
RUNNING BACKS
The tastier spots to find low ownership are at wide receiver, as there are these guys named Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson who play “running back” (those words in quotes because, you know, each guy also gets more targets per game than most wide receivers). If you can fit one guy or the other (or both), you should aim to do so, as no one in football has a higher floor/ceiling combo than these two guys (and if you don’t believe me, take a look at their average points per game…and compare them to any other running back or wide receiver).
With that said, there are two guys in particular who stand out to me as “glaringly under-owned” – two guys who line up nicely for the sort of game that will cause people to say, I can’t believe I missed that!
The first guy is Devonta Freeman, who is currently projected for 7% ownership on DraftKings and 5% ownership on FanDuel. A look at Devonta first requires a look at the situation the Falcons are dealing with this week:
The Falcons are going to be without Mohamed Sanu this week, and all signs point to Julio Jones being a decoy this week (of course, the Falcons are posturing and saying Julio will be a full go this weekend, but turf toe injuries do not clear up this quickly, and if this really is a turf toe situation, Julio is not going to be himself on Sunday).
In addition to these injuries, the Falcons have a play-caller in Kyle Shanahan who does an excellent job targeting an opponent’s weaknesses. This should mean two things this week: 1) Short passes designed to slow down the Rams’ pass rush, and 2) Run plays against a Rams defense that ranks 24th in yards allowed per carry (compared to sixth in yards allowed per pass attempt). You know who will be involved in both areas? Devonta Freeman. Devonta also has only one fewer carry inside the five-yard-line this year than David Johnson (projected for over 20% ownership on both sites), and only two fewer carries inside the five-yard-line this year than Melvin Gordon (projected for 15% ownership on both sites). The main drawback for Devonta compared to those two guys is that his touch total is not as high (and yes, that’s a big drawback – but the savings to go down to Devonta are nice as well), and there is a strong chance Devonta sees his touches spike this week.
The other guy worth bringing up here is someone about whom we should already be saying, I can’t believe everyone missed that! – and that is DeMarco Murray, who has been one of the NFL’s most dominant backs this year, and who is projected for 4% ownership on DraftKings and 6% ownership on FanDuel.
The matchup? About as good as a matchup can be…
While it is easy to be fearful when seeing “Broncos defense,” we need to acknowledge that three things combine this week to make this a matchup to love.
1) The Broncos rank first in DVOA against the pass, and also rank first in yards allowed per pass attempt. When teams can help it, they obviously prefer to not pass against the Broncos.
2) The Titans have the third lowest passing play percentage in the NFL (i.e., only two teams in football run more frequently than the Titans). They’ll have no issues with taking the path of least resistance here.
3) “The path of least resistance”? Yup. The Broncos rank 26th in DVOA against the run and 20th in yards allowed per rush attempt. They are also without stud inside linebacker Brandon Marshall this week.
This is a great spot for DeMarco – and it is made even better by the fact that he is expected to see fairly low ownership.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Because the wide receiver position is, by nature, more volatile than the running back or quarterback position, this is often a great place to take “the strong plays that no one is on,” instead of taking “the strong plays that everyone is on.” Over time, you will gain a huge edge on the field by taking this approach – and there are plenty of guys this week with whom you can pivot away from the field. I’ll bring up four guys here who could just as easily be popular this week if the noise around the industry were leading people to like them – three guys who could easily be chalk if the idea of rostering them were catching fire. Instead, all these guys are going overlooked.
The first is the guy going “least overlooked,” but who is nevertheless expected to see somewhat low ownership this week, as the attention is leaning toward his teammate. That man is Demaryius Thomas. With Thomas priced $300 more than Emmanuel Sanders on DraftKings and priced more than $1k higher than Emmanuel on FanDuel, his ownership projections are much lower than his teammate’s – 8% on DraftKings, and 6% on FanDuel. Demaryius has seen double-digit targets in six of his last seven games, which is the sort of consistency most high-priced wide receivers could only dream of. This week, he gets to take on a Titans pass defense that has been destroyed by wide receivers – allowing the third most receptions and the sixth most touchdowns to the position. All aboard?
Speaking of teams that have been demolished by wide receivers: 19 teams in the NFL have allowed more receptions to the wide receiver position than the Eagles have allowed this year…and yet, only one team in the NFL has allowed more yards to wide receivers than the Eagles. This is what happens when you allow more 20-yard completions than any other team in football. You know who smashes in the “long passing play” department? Yeah. His name is DeSean Jackson, and he is currently projected to see ownership under 4% on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While Philadelphia ranks second in DVOA defending both short passes and the middle of the field, they rank 19th in DVOA on both the left and right side of the field, and they rank 24th against passes that travel 15 or more yards downfield. This is the sort of spot in which DeSean could pop off for a huge game, and most will be wondering how on Earth they missed it.
If you want to dig even deeper, you could look to a guy who has seen six or more targets in four of his last five games, and whose specialty is the deep ball – with 4.34 speed. This week, he is taking on a team that ranks dead last in DVOA against the deep ball, and that has allowed the second most passing touchdowns in the NFL, while allowing the most passing touchdowns on the year to wide receivers.
Do you have a guess who we’re talking about?
Go on – read that again. I bet you can guess:
4.34 speed.
Six or more targets in four of his last five games.
Deep ball specialist.
Taking on a team that ranks dead last in DVOA against the deep ball and allows more touchdowns to wide receivers than any other team in football…
Think about it. I’ll give you a moment…
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Did you guess Tyler Lockett?
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If you did, you’re close. But wrong.
Lockett has 4.40 speed and has seen six targets in three of his last four games (though he has no games in that stretch above six targets). The Packers – his Week 14 opponent – ranks 31st in DVOA against the deep ball, has allowed the fourth most passing touchdowns, and has allowed the second most touchdowns to wide receivers.
The team that ranks 32nd against the deep ball and has allowed the second most passing touchdowns and the most touchdowns to wide receivers is the 49ers.
The deep ball specialist taking them on is Robby Anderson.
Robby Anderson has been the preferred target for Bryce Petty both times the latter has taken the field this year – which makes sense, as Petty has had more practice time with Anderson than with the regular, early-season starters. The Jets project to run around 66 plays this week (about five more than their season average) against a 49ers team that allows the most opponent plays per game in the NFL, while the Seahawks project to run around 57 plays (about five below their season average) against a Packers team that allows the fewest opponent plays per game in the NFL.
Oh, and Robby Anderson projects for ownership of 1% or lower – and while Lockett projects for only 2% on FanDuel, he projects for 6% on DraftKings. [Saturday Evening Note: The Robby Anderson hype train is gaining steam. Ownership projections now have him around 15%. Keep an eye on news surrounding Michael Thomas. If he is out, Brandon Coleman is a strong, low-priced pivot off Robby.]
If you’re looking for some massive upside at a low price and low ownership, Robby Anderson may be just the man for you.
TIGHT ENDS
This week, Jimmy Graham takes on the Packers, Tyler Eifert takes on the Browns, and Ladarius Green takes on the Bills. Each of these three is a great tight end, and each of these three finds himself in a great matchup. Each guy will soak up plenty of ownership – for good reason.
There are two other guys who should be chalk this week, but are not. I won’t argue against going to one of the tight ends above, but each of these guys is strongly in play as well.
The first guy is Cameron Brate, in the game with the highest Over/Under on the week – and the situation here is pretty simple: Vincent Jackson has been out for a while, Cecil Shorts is done for the year, and Adam Humphries is in concussion protocol. This leaves the Bucs with Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, and a group of special teamers and practice squadders. Only two tight ends (some guys named Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce) have more targets inside the 10-yard-line this year than Brate, and he should once again be peppered with targets against a Saints defense that is beatable over the middle. This is not some light-your-world-on-fire play, but with current ownership projections of 4% or lower and as much upside as the chalk, this is a strong place to look.
The other guy? You don’t have to travel far – you just have to look to the other side of this same game. Coby Fleener is projected for ownership of 2% or lower on both sites this week, and he gets to take on a Buccaneers defense that is particularly susceptible over the middle of the field. Two things combine this week to make Fleener a better play than he has been in a while: 1) Josh Hill is no longer a thing, which means Fleener will no longer find himself on the sidelines all the time in order for Hill’s superior blocking to be on the field; 2) Michael Thomas has missed a pair of practices this week with a foot injury and is looking iffy for Sunday. Both of these things should combine to get Fleener more looks this week – and it will not at all be a surprise if he sees eight or more targets for the first time since Weeks 2 and 3. Will it feel good to lock Fleener onto your roster? Absolutely not! But if he goes off for a big game and no one else has him, it will sure feel good when everyone else is left saying, “I can’t believe I missed that…”