Week 15 - The Most Important DFS Weekend Of Your Life
It’s one of the dumbest things anyone can say about an athlete.
Heck, it might be the single dumbest thing anyone can say about an athlete.
And yet…
It’s something that nearly all of us have said at one point or another. It’s something some of you may have said already this very week – after reading about Cleveland Browns head coach Mike Pettine claiming that Russell Wilson is not an elite quarterback.
I’ll be honest, I said it myself:
“He’ll use that as motivation.”
Really? He will? Russell Wilson is not motivated enough already?
It’s one of the dumbest things we can say.
And yet…
Every week, we see this. We talk of narratives. We talk of motivation.
You don’t think people care about this? Look at LeSean McCoy’s ownership percentages from Weeks 10 through 13…then look at his ownership percentage from Week 14. For about a month, McCoy was one of the best tournament plays available, because in addition to his blend of talent, matchup, opportunity, and price being premium those weeks, no one ever wanted to roster him, leaving his ownership percentages advantageously low. All of a sudden, though, Shady played his old team, and in spite of his price finally rising a bit and the talent, matchup, and opportunity being no different than it had been for several weeks, his ownership numbers tripled.
This week? I would bet you everything I own (as well as everything I will own in the future) that his ownership will drop far below where it was last week. He has the same talent; his opportunity hasn’t changed; he’ll enjoy yet another solid matchup; his price is almost identical to what it was last week. The only difference from last week to this week is that the narrative has disappeared.
It’s one of the dumbest thing we can say – it really, truly is.
And yet…
…it’s often true.
If you read my writing during baseball season, you may remember me talking about this before; it may have been my most popular article of the summer.
I’m going to talk about it again, because it’s important. If you missed that article, these thoughts will hopefully help you; if you read that article, these thoughts will hopefully help you again.
When I talked about this during the summer, I brought up the stats that Nick Hundley had in games against the Padres. If you’re not a baseball fan: Hundley played catcher for the Rockies. The Padres had traded him the year before. At the time when I wrote the article in question, Hundley had a .464 batting average against the Padres on the season – through 28 at bats (and while that’s certainly a small sample size, I pointed out at the time that it was still a large enough sample size that Hundley could get zero hits in his next 14 at bats against the Padres and still have a batting average against them over .300).
At the time, I did not cite that as definitive proof that motivated players perform better (one player performing well against the team that got rid of him, after all, could easily be a fluke), but instead I brought up Hundley’s numbers against the Padres because it was those numbers that made me start thinking about all this; I brought up Hundley’s numbers as an example that this can sometimes make a difference.
The same thing happened this week, when I read Pettine’s comments about Russell Wilson. I thought, “Russ is going to be extra motivated this week.” I thought, “Wait – that’s a dumb thing to think.” Then, I thought about all this.
The first thing we need to bring up, in exploring this idea that players with extra motivation can sometimes play better, is the fact that these are all professional athletes. All these guys are talented; all these guys “want it.” You don’t reach the highest level of a sport without having talent; you don’t reach the highest level of a sport without having a strong, competitive drive. No one wants to go out there and lose. Everyone wants to beat the guy across from them; everyone wants to win.
And yet…
Sometimes, that extra nudge truly does make a difference.
If everyone at the highest level of a sport is talented and motivated, it is sometimes those guys who can find a “next gear” who end up gaining the small edge on their opponent that can be gained. In baseball, where these guys play pretty much every single day for six months, it is sometimes the guys who can find a way to truly “bring it” each day (or on any given day) who end up outperforming their equally talented competition. In the NFL, where the week of preparation can often mean as much as the “motivation” on game day, it is often those who find a way to access that “next level” of motivation throughout the week who end up consistently outperforming their competition.
I think it is telling that Bill Belichick – who, for all his egomaniacal faults, is clearly one of the best head coaches we have ever seen in the NFL – is known for sharing “bulletin board material” with his players. It is telling that Belichick looks for ways each week to motivate his players and make them feel like they are overlooked – like they are underdogs – even when everyone expects them to win.
I think it is telling that athletes themselves will talk about being “extra motivated” for a particular game or matchup or opponent.
I think it is telling that we often see a player have a huge game against a team that let him go, or against a player who said something negative about him.
I think “motivation” matters. I think the idea of a “next level” is real.
After I wrote about this in the summer, I was talking to one of my brothers-in-law about this idea that athletes can access a “next gear,” and he told me a story about when he was in high school and a particular club soccer team had cut him. He joined a different club team, and when they played the team that had cut him, he had his best game of the season – scoring three goals, and just generally dominating throughout. “I worked my tail off and wanted to win every single game I played,” he said to me. “But there was something extra in that game – something that pushed me over the top. Something I couldn’t access in other matchups.”
And it was all of this – it was the pondering I did this summer on this topic – that led me to wonder: What if an athlete could access that “next gear” all the time? What if an athlete could treat every game like they were playing a team that had traded them or cut them or overlooked them or “done them wrong”?
And then, I thought of these two guys:
1) Michael Jordan. Jordan was known to play “with a chip on his shoulder.” He was always the guy who didn’t make his high school basketball team his freshman year (or didn’t make the JV team, or whatever the story is – even if that may or may not have simply been because of grades). He was always the guy who wasn’t selected first overall. He was always the guy who was not respected as much as he should have been. His Hall of Fame speech reflected this perception. He latched onto the doubts anyone had toward him. He always saw himself as someone who had to prove himself – and this led to him always being the guy who worked harder than anyone around him.
2) Tom Brady. By this point in Brady’s career, anyone who talks about him lists him among the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. Sure, some may say Johnny Unitas or Joe Montana were better; some may say Peyton Manning was better. But no one denies that Brady is in the conversation. In Brady’s mind, however, he’s still the guy who was drafted with the 199th pick in the draft. He’s still the sixth-rounder. He’s still the guy no one thought was good enough.
In thinking through all this, I believe there are two things affected by this “belief that others don’t believe in me.”
Firstly, I think preparation is impacted. I feel this is particularly important, as those who succeed at the highest level in any area in life will almost always be those who work the hardest. If someone heads into a particular game feeling that no one believes in them – feeling that they need to “prove” something to others – they are going to work harder toward that contest. And if someone always feels this way (for example: Michael Jordan, or Tom Brady), they are always going to outwork their competition.
Secondly, I think focus is impacted. When someone feels this extra level of motivation, they are able to “dial in” during the game itself in a way they are unable to without that “extra motivation.” This elevated focus leads to elevated performance. Every pitch or every play takes on extra importance. Every play is their Super Bowl. Every play is the most important play of their entire life.
In Daily Fantasy Sports, it often becomes easy for us to get relaxed in our approach. We play some slates just to play them. We play because we want the entertainment, or because we don’t like missing a slate. We play because we are supposed to play…but we don’t pause the way we should. We don’t think through things the way we should. We don’t prepare as fully as we ought to prepare, and we don’t treat each slate like the most important slate of our entire life.
What if this changed for you?
What would be different?
What if you approached each slate as though it were the single most important slate of your entire life?
Seriously – think about it. Pause. Ask yourself this question:
If last week’s slate (or the slate the week before, or the week before, or the week before) had been the single most important slate of your entire life, would you have done anything differently in your preparation for that slate? Would you have done anything differently in your approach?
The crazy truth is, it only takes one single slate to make your season. It only takes one slate to make your entire year.
And yet…
Most of us treat each DFS slate we play like “just another slate.”
What if this changed?
This week, I encourage you to think of Week 15 as the single most important slate of your entire DFS career.
Next week, I encourage you to do the same for Week 16.
The same goes for Week 17.
After all, it only takes one single slate to make your entire year.
Get motivated.
Focus.
Realize that I don’t think you are as good at NFL DFS as you think you are. Others don’t think you are as good at NFL DFS as you think you are.
Prove us wrong. This is your “revenge game.” This is your chance to go out there and dominate and have a weekend in NFL DFS that you will remember for the rest of your life.
This is the most important weekend of your DFS career.
Oh, yes – and these are some of the players who may help you turn this into the weekend that “makes your entire year.”
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QUARTERBACKS
Speaking of Russell Wilson, he may be the premier play yet again this weekend. Last week, I listed Russ as my top point-per-dollar play in the RotoGrinders Expert Consensus Rankings, and I talked about him in my NFL Edge for the fact that the Seahawks had been blowing out the Vikings in the fourth quarter of Week 13 and were still calling deep shots and designed runs for Russ…and then, I got too scared to use him myself due to blowout concerns. The blowout concerns are still very much in place this week, but the Seahawks seem to be working to round into form before the playoffs begin, and as such, we can probably expect them to remain aggressive on offense deep into the fourth quarter, even if they have a big lead. Although Russ’ price has risen and his ownership keeps rising, I like him a lot this week. There is every reason to believe the Seahawks will have plenty of success through the air against the Browns.
If there is anyone who is going to pull enough ownership away from Russ that Russ is not the highest-owned QB on the weekend, it will probably be Carson Palmer. The Eagles’ secondary has been absolutely abused lately, and Carson Palmer is one of the favorites for the NFL MVP award this year, as he is playing at an elite level, and is utilizing his quality weaponry in an impeccable manner. Even though the Cardinals have a great defense and the Eagles have been up-and-down on offense, the fact that this game is being played on the road and the fact that the Cardinals’ opponent this week runs the most plays-per-game in the NFL will combine to give Palmer plenty of opportunity for fantasy goodness. I expect him to take full advantage.
While I could talk about Matthew Stafford here – in what should be a shootout on Monday Night Football in New Orleans – I want to instead use this space to bring up a talented quarterback most will overlook: Philip Rivers. Earlier this season, Rivers was the hottest QB in the NFL, but after losing Keenan Allen, things started to fall apart. While the recent games for Rivers have not looked good, however, it has been less a result of “losing Keenan Allen and more a result of the Chargers facing the Chiefs twice and the Broncos once over the last four weeks. In the one game that was not against these opponents (against the Jaguars), Rivers threw for 300 yards and four touchdowns. If Stevie Johnson misses again this week (which is currently expected), Rivers still finds himself dealing with a depleted supporting cast – but he still has enough in the way of weaponry to put up a solid game at home against the Dolphins, and the fact that no one wants to roster him even at his cheap price makes him an extremely intriguing tournament option.
RUNNING BACKS
There is every reason in the world to believe that the Patriots will have a big lead at home against the Titans, and when the Patriots have a big lead, they tend to find themselves keeping the ball on the ground a lot down the stretch. If this were a normal week – without injuries changing everything we can comfortably assume about the Patriots – we would be calling this a LeGarrette Blount week.” Instead, Blount is injured, and we are left guessing who will receive the bulk of the work in the backfield. Or are we? Brandon Bolden is the Patriots’ “big back” at the moment, and although James White will get the passing game work, he only has one game since taking over for Dion Lewis in which he notched enough touches to be considered fantasy relevant. “But James White got the carry near the goal line last week.” Yes, he did – but on that play, the Patriots tried to spread out the defense with a passing formation. If the Pats go goal line, Bolden will be the goal line back, and he’ll also be the guy likeliest to get 20 carries. I expect him to pay off his salary this week, and he may very well do a whole lot more than that.
There are plenty of obvious values this week (including Denard Robinson – whom I also like), but I think a lot of people will overlook Charcandrick West. As recently as a few weeks ago, Charcandrick at this depressed price would be considered a “must play.” Were we all so wrong back then? I know that the Ravens are a strong run defense, but the Chiefs are nevertheless a team that remains generally committed to keeping the ball on the ground and playing clock control offense. If Spencer Ware misses this game (as currently appears will be the case), I don’t expect Charcandrick’s ownership to spike that much higher than it has been lately, and given his pass game usage and his big-play upside, he’ll make for a very interesting option in tourneys this week.
Eddie Lacy is another guy who we would have previously thought of as “way too cheap” this week, and he is an excellent guy to bring up this week, when the intro to this article touched on “motivation” and “focus.” Lacy seems to epitomize that group of athletes who are “super talented, but never work as hard as they should or focus as much as they should.” If you pay attention, it seems that Mike McCarthy is always having to play mind games with his top running back. His most recent mind game (basically benching Lacy in Week 13) seemed to work last week, and I expect the effects to still aid the Packers’ top back this week. When Lacy gets 20+ touches and is motivated, he is one of the best plays in the league. He seems to still be motivated, and he should get 20+ touches this week, making him a really interesting play against the Raiders at what should be too-low ownership.
Finally, we have Adrian Peterson – who may still be the best running back in the NFL, and who is facing what may be the worst run defense in the NFL. In one sense, this falls under the heading of “don’t overthink things,” but because of how loath I am to pay up for running backs (especially on a week such as this one, with so much value available), he’s still a guy we can easily overthink. The Vikings prefer to center their offense around the run, and the run is the best way to attack the Bears. This makes Peterson perhaps the best raw-points play on the weekend, and it certainly puts him up there among the top point-per-dollar plays as well.
WIDE RECEIVERS
At some point, Doug Baldwin will fail to score multiple touchdowns in a game, but this may not be the week in which it happens. As I mentioned above, the Seahawks are continuing to play aggressive football even when they have a lead, and Doug Baldwin has (genuinely) been playing like one of the top receivers in the NFL – getting open at will, and making tough catches when he has to. Although his ownership is going to be high yet again, and although he is not seeing the double-digit targets we like to see for our “must-play” guys, the talent, matchup, price, and (to a great enough extent) opportunity all come together to keep him in the discussion for the top plays on the weekend.
A lot of people look at the Cardinals’ offense and assume that their myriad of weapons means their passing offense is too difficult to predict, but if you pay attention to matchups, you can often get a bead on where the Cardinals will go. Last week, I told you that John Brown seemed to match up best with the Vikings’ secondary, and while Michael Floyd had a great game, Brown did as well. This week, Michael Floyd and John Brown both match up tremendously well with the Eagles’ secondary, while Larry Fitzgerald again draws the toughest matchup of the bunch. I like Floyd a bit more between the Cardinals’ two outside options, as his targets have been more consistent in spite of his snap rate being a bit lower than Brown’s, but I will be very surprised if you can go wrong with either of these guys.
All throughout the week so far, I have been back and forth on Calvin Johnson on Monday Night Football. On the one hand, Delvin Breaux has held opposing receivers to one total yard over the last three weeks. On the other hand, the Saints have not been using Breaux much in shadow coverage lately – including against DeAndre Hopkins a couple weeks back. If the Lions are smart (which is still up for debate, of course), they will use Calvin Johnson on the left side of the field most of the game, where he will be matched up with Brandon Browner, and will be able to beast his way toward a monster game. If the Lions do this, Megatron could end up as the best play on the weekend. If, however, the Lions leave Megatron on the right side too much, or if the Saints use Breaux in shadow coverage (again – something they have not done since Rob Ryan was fired, but something they could still choose to do this week), Megatron will disappoint. It’s probably a risk worth taking, but realize that it is certainly a risk.
Perhaps the most intriguing play for me this weekend is Randall Cobb against the Raiders. Last week, Aaron Rodgers only threw the ball 35 times. In spite of that low volume, Randall Cobb saw 12 targets – which tied his most targets on the season. He also was given three carries. Anomaly? I think not. Last week, Mike McCarthy took over play-calling duties for the first time this season, and this switch coincided with a concerted effort to get the ball into Cobb’s hands. We have seen plenty of times the sort of week-winning upside Cobb can have when everything goes just right; this may be a week in which everything will go just right – and if that happens, this will be the lowest price/ownership point we see for Cobb through the last three weeks of the season.
TIGHT ENDS
Pretty much no one wants to roster a pair of pass catchers from the same team, and a lot of people will be looking to roster Alshon Jeffery this week. This could leave Zach Miller overlooked, in spite of the fact that he is quickly becoming one of the strongest tight end options in the NFL. The Vikings struggle against tight ends, and Miller is pretty much a lock for six to eight targets, including work in the red zone. If you are looking for a cheap tight end who has the same upside as the higher-priced options, you may not need to look any further than Zach Miller.
Of course, another “norm” among DFSers is “not wanting to roster offensive players against the Seahawks” – especially in Seattle. As great as the Seahawks are on defense, however, they consistently struggle against tight ends (as do the Falcons and Jaguars, incidentally – two teams coached by the last two defensive coordinators of the Seahawks). Gary Barnidge is going to remain a strong option between the 20s and a top option in the red zone even with Johnny Manziel under center, and that does not change with the Browns playing in Seattle. It may feel scary to lock Gary Barnidge onto your roster, but it will feel scary for others as well, and this will leave him lower-owned than he should be in what is actually a very strong matchup.
While Greg Olsen is a great on-paper play this week, and Rob Gronkowski is the same, the guy I want to look at more closely (especially with injury concerns potentially limiting the time on the field for those first two guys) is Jordan Reed. Reed has the toughest matchup of these elite options, as the Bills have done a great job this year defending tight ends. Another team that has done a great job this year defending tight ends, however, is the Bears – and that’s who Reed just smashed for a monster game. Reed is used more like a wide receiver than a tight end anyway, and he should once again receive eight or nine targets, including red zone work. He is by no means a “must play,” but he is one of the strongest plays on the weekend…
…that’s this weekend – the most important weekend of your DFS career.
Treat this weekend with the respect it deserves. Focus fully. Stay motivated.
It only takes one weekend to make your season. Make this “that weekend.”
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboard when things conclude on Monday – then we’ll jump right back to it in Week 16 and start all over again.