Week 2, In Which He's Just So Lucky
They told me not to play him.
“Seriously, man – it’s not even worth it.”
“No one can beat this guy.”
“He’s the luckiest person you’ve ever met.”
Lucky? Don’t play him because he’s lucky?
If you’re a poker player, I’m sure you’ll agree. The statement, Don’t play this guy – he’s too lucky, can be roughly translated in the following manner: Play this guy and take his money! He’s not actually good.
_____
This was back in 2004. I lived in Tulsa at the time, and the casinos had not yet opened their doors to our 52-card friends.
Honestly? This was not a problem at all. Oklahoma had one of the largest underground poker scenes in the country in those days – with games going on every day of the week, all across the state. There were dozens of men and women who made a full-time living dealing cards – in spite of no legal games existing; there were a number of other people who supplemented their income (a few who even made a full-time living) hosting games; my favorite place to play was in a house off of Route 66 – in the heart of Tulsa – that had actually been built specifically for poker. From the outside, it looked like a normal, small house; inside, there was nothing but a bathroom, a kitchen, and a large living room in which a poker table had been built. When the green light on the porch was flipped on, it meant a game was in progress.
Naturally, these games weren’t publicly advertised. Most people had no idea they existed. You had to know someone who knew someone. You had to receive an invite. But once you were in (you know – as long as you didn’t piss people off), you’d get invited to other games. Before long, you could have your pick of high- and mid-stakes games every night of the week, all across the state.
I was a pretty good player back then. Not great, but getting there. I worked hard at it. I studied the numbers, I dived into poker theory, I read all the books. And I played – a ton. I was only 19 years old, but I was profitable and improving. I didn’t play in the biggest games just yet, but I was in that circle – and I was working my way up.
That’s not how I met the “Lucky Guy.” He had no idea these games existed. He was just friends with a group of high school seniors I played a $20 game with every once in a while. He thought he was pretty good. He wanted to get into some higher-stakes games. He invited me over for an afternoon of heads-up play.
I could hardly wait.
_____
I got a text one afternoon. The Lucky Guy. Yes!
His mom was at work. He was home watching his little brother. Did I want to come over and play? You better believe it, buddy!
I got the address from him and popped it into MapQuest. I grabbed whatever money I had on hand, and I zoomed over to his house.
The chips were piled on the kitchen table. A couple decks of cards were all set to go. His little brother was watching television in the next room – some music video for some song I’d never heard.
“Have you seen that music video yet?” the Lucky Guy asked.
“No. What is it?”
“It’s called Jesus Walks.”
“It’s called what?”
“It’s called Jesus Walks.”
I assumed I had misheard. “Who is it by?”
“Kanye West.”
“I’ve never heard of the guy,” I said. I didn’t care. Why are we chatting about some random, no-name rapper? I just wanted to play some cards.
I sat down across from him, and we divvied up chips. Thirty minutes later, he had wiped me clean.
“You want to play some more?” he asked.
“That’s all the money I have on me.”
“That’s all right – I know you’re good for it. Double or nothing?”
I probably lasted 45 minutes that second time before he wiped me clean again.
“You want to play again?” he asked.
“I mean…yeah. I’ll play. You sure you don’t want me to get the money first? I can get the money I owe you before we start another game.”
“I know you’re good for it. Let’s go again. Double or nothing?”
“On the full amount?” I asked.
“Sure, why not?”
Why not, indeed. No way this guy could beat me three times in a row – so we divvied up chips once more. We dealt. Before long, there was nothing in front of me but an empty stretch of kitchen table. All the chips were on his side.
“Should we go one more time?” he asked. “Double or nothing?”
We divvied up the chips – and we dived back in.
Everything his friends had told me about him was true. He wasn’t any good. He didn’t really know what he was doing. But it didn’t seem to matter; he would make dumb moves, then get lucky, then he would start all over again. This fourth game, however, I was absolutely determined. There was no way I was going to let him beat me. Absolutely no freaking way.
I started attacking his missteps as aggressively as I could. I sliced away at his stack, and probably no more than ten minutes in, I had a good 70% of the chips on my side. It was my turn to deal, and after I passed out the cards, I took a peek at mine. Two aces. Let’s finish this guy! How should I play it?
Oh. It didn’t even matter. He pushed his remaining chips into the middle of the table. “I’m all in,” he said. I called. We rolled our cards over. He started pacing his mother’s kitchen. All he had was a king and a jack.
On the flop, he hit a king. On the river, he hit a jack. Two pair. He was back in the game.
Okay, JM. No worries. No big deal. Just get right back to what you were doing before. Get aggressive. Take this guy out.
Five minutes later (my deal again), I rolled out the flop – and what do you know? Six-Seven-Eight, to go with the Nine-Ten in my hand. What else do you know? He pushed all-in. Of course he did!
We flipped our cards – and he showed a pair of jacks. He started pacing the kitchen. I rolled out the turn card…another eight. I rolled over the river. A jack. He picked up a full house. “Yes! Yes! Yes!” – pumping his fist and yelling and walking a victory lap through the house. I was wiped clean again.
“You want to play one last time?” I asked.
“I’m good,” he said. “That’s a lot of money you owe me. I’d rather get that first before we play again.”
_____
I never did play him again. I really didn’t play much poker at all after that. I met up with the guy a few days later to hand over the money I owed him, then I left town for a while. By the time I got back, I was more focused on my writing than I was on cards. I guess that worked out all right.
I do still think about that guy at times, though. I regret that I never had a chance to play him again – a chance to be the one to wipe him out.
A year or two after that encounter, I ran into him at the mall. When I asked him if he was still playing poker, his answer was predictably vague. Something like:
“I actually stopped a little while ago. I was making a ton of money, of course – I had bought a new truck and everything – but it was just taking up too much of my time.” Oh, sure – I understand. Taking up too much time. Of course.
I talked to some of his friends after that and found out he had lost quite a bit. He still owed several people large amounts of money. That’s why he had quit playing. You can’t be lucky forever, after all. Sooner or later, skill wins.
_____
One of the most misunderstood elements of DFS is the idea of “cash game plays” and “tournament plays.” Because low-upside options are regularly classified as “cash game plays,” and because high-risk/high-reward options are typically labeled “tournament plays,” many people think this is how they should approach each type of contest. They worry very little about “upside” in 50/50s, Head-to-Heads, and Double-Ups; they worry very little about “safety” in GPPs.
The truth, however, is that you don’t necessarily need to take on a massive amount of risk with your tournament plays in order to have a big weekend. In fact, you don’t even have to take on a massive amount of risk in order to be contrarian. Oftentimes, you can target great plays that others are ignoring – plays that only seem risky because they’re not the plays being talked about – and can provide yourself with a high tourney ceiling while also keeping a high enough floor at each position on your team that you’ll be in solid shape even if a few things go poorly.
To put that another way: You don’t have to make crazy calls and “hope to get lucky.” Sure, people do this every week – and every week, there are going to be some people who make money with this approach. But over time, you’ll consistently make profit by making consistently intelligent plays – while those who rely on “getting lucky” off their high-risk, shot-in-the-dark plays will eventually be telling people how they made a bunch of money in DFS and bought a new truck and everything…but they eventually stopped playing, because it was “just taking up too much time.”
This week, we are going to look at three tourney plays at each position that actually make sense. These are plays that have a solid point-per-dollar floor, along with a solid ceiling…but that most of your competition will not be looking toward – enabling you to roster these high-floor/high-ceiling players, while avoiding the massive ownership you should always look to stay away from in tourneys.
Non-Lucky Quarterbacks
Carson Palmer v Buccaneers – $6,900 DK / $8,200 FD
I get it – I really do. I mean, last year, that game combined for over 100 points! But Saints-Giants is not the only place to look for offense this week. Not even close. It’s just the only place people seem to be really excited about.
This week, the highest Vegas-implied team total on the board belongs to the Panthers. The second-highest belongs to the Giants. The third-highest – less than one point behind the Giants – belongs to the Arizona Cardinals, who get to take on a still-weak Buccaneers defense, at home, in a game in which the Cardinals will want to put up points in order to get their season back on track.
Through his first six home games last year (before injuring his finger and no longer looking quite the same), Carson Palmer had only one game in which he threw for under 300 yards (he still threw for 275 in that contest), and he had only one game in which he threw for fewer than two touchdown passes.
This is one of the best, most aggressive offenses in the NFL – playing against a poor defense, and backed up by a high Vegas-implied total…and yet, Palmer seems to be going hugely overlooked this weekend, as everyone is too focused on the game in New York and the game in North Carolina to worry about this contest out west. This is a perfect spot to load up on a Cardinals stack in tourneys and watch as the points pile up.
Philip Rivers v Jaguars – $6,400 DK / $7,700 FD
The narrative is simple: Philip Rivers lost his best receiver. The sky is falling! The Chargers’ season is in the tank.
While it is true that Rivers lost his best receiver, scientists are currently divided in their opinions on whether or not the sky is actually falling, and the Chargers themselves surely do not view their season as being over. What’s more, this is a Jaguars team that Rivers diced up for 300 yards and four touchdowns in Week 12 last year, without Keenan Allen.
Although this Jaguars defense has added some solid pieces, and should continue to improve throughout the year, they still have a ways to go before they are a formidable opponent. What’s more, the Chargers have better weapons this year than they had last year. With the Jags likely to be able to slow down the run, and with the Chargers sure to be amped up in their home opener with a “No one believes in us” narrative, I expect Rivers to hit the air early and often – and when the dust settles, I expect Rivers to be the owner of a very nice stat line, at very low ownership.
Marcus Mariota at Lions – $6,000 DK / $7,500 FD
This is the sort of play that people will talk about but not actually pull the trigger on. We’re not going to see massive Mariota ownership. And yet, people expect the Lions’ passing game to continue to find success…and people expect the Titans to be playing catch-up throughout this contest. While Mariota is a bit riskier than the two guys listed above, his legs keep him in the “high-floor” conversation. What’s more, Mariota is less risky than most seem to assume; last year, in the 11 games in which he played the majority of the Titans’ snaps, Mariota fell shy of 20 fantasy points only four times. Those games came against the Bills, the Dolphins, the Panthers, and the Jets (three of which boasted strong defenses in 2015 – with the Dolphins being the only “What the heck?” situation; also, only the game against the Panthers saw Mariota fall below 14 points). It is unlikely that anyone mistakes the Lions this year for an “elite defense,” and the state of the Titans’ defense combined with the excellence of the Lions’ passing attack should lead to the Titans falling into catch-up mode early. This makes Mariota a strong point-per-dollar play, and it gives him a raw-points ceiling similar to what you will find with many of the more expensive options.
Non-Lucky Running Backs
David Johnson v Buccaneers – $7,600 DK / $9,000 FD
All right, cut me some slack. There are honestly just not that many running backs in the NFL we would actually like to roster. I know that David Johnson is not going to go “overlooked” – but with the excitement surrounding C.J. Anderson and DeAngelo Williams this weekend, I do think DJ will be lower-owned than he ought to be.
The best part about rostering David Johnson, of course, is that he is game-flow independent, as he is used as this team’s between-the-tackles runner, as their goal-line back, and as their pass-catching back. The last item is especially important this week, against a Bucs defense that was extremely strong against the run last year, and that showed signs in Week 1 of being strong in this area again. This will lead to more passes for Carson Palmer will lead to more receptions for DJ. We like this because DraftKings in PPR scoring and FanDuel is 0.5 PPR – but we also like this because Johnson is absolutely lethal when he gets into the open field. I would take 14 carries and seven catches for Johnson over 20 carries and four catches, as the floor is raised by the points for those catches, and the ceiling soars when he has more space to work with. I understand the love this week for DeAngelo and C.J., but don’t overlook DJ as a play with monster potential.
Jonathan Stewart v 49ers – $5,400 DK / $6,700 FD
I have to apologize to NFL Edge readers. In spite of investing about 25 to 30 hours each week into that article in which I break down every game from top to bottom, I still sometimes run into areas after posting that article where I begin to see things differently. In that article this week, I basically dismissed J-Stew – which is easy to do, as he does not catch many passes, and he often gets vultured by Cam Newton. But J-Stew is also the only real running back option on a team that not only has the highest Vegas-implied total on the weekend, but that is also the largest favorite on the board. There will likely be enough scoring opportunities on the Panthers for Stewart to get in on the fun, and there will be enough clock-killing work for him to crack 100 yards.
Yes, Todd Gurley is a more talented back than Jonathan Stewart, and the 49ers bottled him up last week. But you know who else has a talent edge? Cam Newton, over Case Keenum. On Monday night, the 49ers sold out to stop Gurley and dared Keenum to beat them. As down-in-the-dumps as the 49ers are as a team, even they know this amounts to a suicidal game plan against Cam & Co.
J-Stew should have room to work this week, and he has a shot to put up a very solid game, with basically nobody on him in Week 2 tourneys.
LeGarrette Blount v Dolphins – $4,000 DK / $6,000 FD
Remember when I said Mariota is the type of play people will talk about but not actually roster? I present you Part II of that – the Patriots Running Back of the Week.
Every week, we try to predict how the Patriots will employ their backfield – and most weeks, we as a community are generally able to guess correctly. And yet, it’s always scary to pull the trigger – and so, most never do.
Here’s the thing, though: Last week, the Cardinals profiled as exactly the type of team against which the Pats would rely on their pass-catching back while keeping Blount on the sidelines. And yet, in their efforts to protect Jimmy Garoppolo, they did not do this at all; instead, they gave Blount 22 carries. This week, on the other hand, the matchup lines up nicely for a Blount Game already. This should make it that much more likely that the Pats ride Blount to a win – perhaps giving him as many as 25 carries (along with any goal line opportunities that happen to arise), and providing Blount with much higher upside than he typically has. Sure, Blount may go for something like 20 carries, 90 yards, and no touchdowns. But he could also go for 25 carries, 100 yards, and two touchdowns. Either way, he’s an affordable option that helps open up space on your team, he has a nice floor, and far fewer people will be on him this week than you might assume from the Play Blount chatter you are likely to hear.
Non-Lucky Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins v Chiefs – $8,700 DK / $8,300 FD
It’s funny how quickly this happens. You know? I could have put Julio Jones here, too – one week after he topped 30% ownership in tourneys. But after Antonio Brown dismantled the Redskins, people want to roster him; after A.J. Green ripped through the Jets, people want to roster him; and after the Raiders embarrassed the Saints’ secondary, everyone wants to be on Odell Beckham. I don’t blame those people, either – but watch. Julio and Hopkins will be criminally under-owned this week – and because we are talking about a couple of the most matchup-proof receivers in the NFL, there is a good chance one of them has a great game.
Speaking of being “matchup-proof” – the matchup for Hopkins this week is really not all that bad. For one thing, the Chiefs are having a tougher time getting pressure on the quarterback without Justin Houston, and with Tamba Hali on a snap count. This gives Nuk time to work open against the Chiefs’ secondary – which brings us to the matchup he’ll have…against Marcus Peters. Peters has name value as a guy who made the Pro Bowl in his rookie year and won the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award while posting gaudy interception numbers, but his skills do not quite match his current reputation. While I also like Will Fuller in this game, and while I also like Julio as another high-priced pivot off the popular guys, Nuk has almost as good a chance as OBJ and Green (and, in my opinion, a better chance than Antonio) of posting the top raw-points score on the weekend, and you will be able to roster him at a far lower rate of ownership – creating a huge edge in tourneys if he does go off.
Michael Floyd v Buccaneers – $5,900 DK / $7,000 FD
Understandably, the attention this week is likelier to be on Larry Fitzgerald as the “wide receiver to roster in this game,” but it’s important that we do not overlook an affordable, sure-to-be-low-owned Michael Floyd, either. Floyd is basically a lock for seven targets – with upside for nine or ten looks – and most of these targets will be of the downfield, big-play variety. Last weekend, Floyd showed us his floor in one of the tougher matchups he will have all season, against Malcolm Butler, and that “floor” was still three catches for 60 yards.
While the “spread the ball around” nature of the Cardinals’ offense certainly gives Floyd a lower floor than other receives with his elite skill set, Floyd is also not priced nearly to the level that his skills should have him. As such, he becomes an excellent tourney play in a high-flying offense that is expected to score plenty of points this week in a great matchup – and even if Floyd does not hit his ceiling, his floor is high enough that he won’t crush your team.
Michael Thomas at Giants – $4,000 DK / $5,000 FD
Thomas may seem like a low-floor guy – given that he is a rookie, and given that he is the number-three option in this offense – but there are a few things to keep in mind here:
1) In Drew Brees’ seven road starts last year, he threw the ball 40 times in six of them.
2) Willie Snead hit double-digit targets only three times last season. So did Brandin Cooks. This is always going to be a team that spreads the ball around.
3) With the Giants expected to put up a lot of points against the Saints, we need to expect the Saints to be passing plenty as well.
Last week, Thomas saw six targets (and reeled in all six of them). I expect another six to eight targets this week.
Optimally, Thomas will move into the slot more – filling the “big-body slot” role that Marques Colston filled for years. But even if Thomas continues to play more snaps on the outside, there is every reason to expect him to receive a steady diet of targets, and for him to be as involved near the goal line as any other receiver. While Thomas’ lack of NFL pedigree makes him seem like a “low-floor” play, the truth is, he should be very safe for a receiver at his price tag – and he carries as much upside as you can find while bargain hunting this week.
Non-Lucky Tight Ends
Julius Thomas at Chargers – $4,400 DK / $6,400 FD
Last season, Julius Thomas posted his best game of the year against this same Chargers team – piling up nine catches, 116 yards, and a touchdown. Wow.
In Week 1, the Jaguars moved Julius all over the formation – looking for creative ways to scheme him open – and now they travel to San Diego to take on a team that is consistently excellent against wide receivers, while showing consistently poor coverage to tight ends.
Even with as obviously great as this matchup is for Julius, there are a few key elements that are sure to keep his ownership low:
1) Delanie Walker is the tight end receiving most of the “sleeper appeal” attention this week – and even after Delanie, you have Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen soaking up attention.
2) Assuming Chris Ivory misses this game, most people will have to at least consider T.J. Yeldon, as pretty much the only low-cost, 20-touch running back available. This will pull them away from thinking as much about the Jaguars’ pass catchers.
3) Even those who do decide to consider the Jaguars’ pass catchers are likely to first give a look to Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. Basically, Julius is going to be way down the list of “players being considered” – both on the Jaguars, and at the tight end position – in spite of being one of the best on-paper plays on the week.
Coby Fleener at Giants – $3,900 DK / $5,600 FD
I have been banging the “trust matters” drum. I’ve been banging it hard. And I do think trust matters between a quarterback and his pass catchers. I think Fleener and Brees don’t have it. But this is also the best tight end matchup in the NFL – and on top of that, the Giants have a much-improved secondary that should surprise the skeptics as the year progresses, and should filter targets toward the middle of the field even more than before. The more we move through the week, the more I like Fleener – and as much as people want to take advantage of this game, most people are going to be terrified to actually look to the guy who let them down in such a big way a week ago. Fleener should see five to seven targets in this one, with upside for more. If he can finally turn a few of those into catches, he could be in for a really nice game.
Jesse James v Bengals – $3,400 DK / $4,500 FD
Last year, #DadRunner Heath Miller had two separate 10-catch games against the Bengals. This year, Jesse James is a younger, more athletic version of Heath – one who played every snap in Week 1, and who clearly has the trust of his quarterback.
The success of the Bengals’ pass defense is predicated more on “scheme” than on “personnel,” and it is for this reason that I am a bit lukewarm on Antonio Brown this weekend, as the Bengals have perpetually found a way to slow him down (of course, “slow him down” is relative when we are talking about Brown; basically, “slow him down” means “not allow him to justify his massive DFS price tag”). But in finding a way to slow down Brown, they leave the middle of the field open, and this is where Heath in 2015 ate. This is also where James in 2016 should eat. Because pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel came out before the Monday night games, James is outlandishly affordable – giving you a really nice floor/ceiling combo for the coin he will cost.
See?
It’s not all about “taking on a ton of risk to grab some upside.” It’s not all about “hoping to get lucky.” Instead, it’s all about grabbing the smart, high-upside plays others are overlooking and putting yourself in position where you actually get to keep the truck you bought with your DFS winnings…instead of having to explain to someone two years from now how you quit DFS because it was “taking up too much time.”