Week 6, In Which We Boat Like Chocolate
“The word is boat. ‘My sister and I boat like chocolate.’ Boat.”
The sentence did not make a whole lot of sense to me, but the word itself was not an obstacle:
B.O.A.T. Boat.
Wrong…
Later that day, after grading our spelling tests, my second-grade teacher called me to her desk.
“Jordan. B.O.A.T.?”
“Sorry?”
“Question four, you spelled it B.O.A.T. You know how to spell both.”
“Oh. Both. I thought you said boat.”
She marked something on the paper then looked up at me. “Boat wasn’t one of the words for this week. Didn’t you study for this week’s test?”
This was not an unusual situation for me in school. I recall chucking alongside a buddy in first grade when we handed in our spelling tests and spotted that one girl had spelled “Socks” S.O.C.K.S. “Did you see that she spelled Sox as S.O.C.K.S.? Ha!”
The funny thing is, it’s not as if I’m averse to study. To research. To hard work. I just never liked being told what to study.
In high school, I read all the time…yet I read only one assigned book through those four years. In college, I skipped classes constantly (often writing classes) in order to study and practice writing on my own. And when I first started playing MLB DFS, I refused to look at Vegas lines or OPS or any of the numbers everyone else talked about, and instead used my time to dig into stats I had not heard anyone mention.
It’s not a bad thing. Over the years, I’ve realized this. It’s a way for me to think for myself – to build my own thoughts; to create my own path. This approach has led to plenty of successes – but it has also led to my share of missed opportunities.
Over the last year or so, I have grown closer to the idea of “finding and taking the easiest path to success.” This is distinctly different from simply taking the easiest path – which rarely leads to positive results – but instead entails something that many of my DFS counterparts are likely still far better at than I am: acting like a Fortune 500 CEO when it comes to DFS research. Rather than doing all the heavy lifting themselves, many of my counterparts essentially “delegate” important research work to various writers, reporters, bloggers, and researchers – which saves a ton of time, while exposing the individual to far more information than they could uncover on their own.
When I first began writing for RotoGrinders during the 2014 season, my only article was the “Week ____, In Which…” piece – in which I led off with an intro very similar to this one, and then rolled into some statistical digging on some of my favorite plays on the week. One week that year, I decided to break down every single game on the slate (in a far less comprehensive manner than I do these days), which led to the idea of the NFL Edge becoming a core piece of our Premium NFL offering. Throughout the last two seasons, the NFL Edge and the “Week ___, In Which…” article have coexisted on the site, but backend numbers have indicated this year that it’s time for a shift. When so many readers on RotoGrinders are Premium subscribers these days, the “meat” of the home page article (or the “veggies,” for my fellow vegetarians) – i.e., the area in which I talk about eight or nine guys I like that week – seems superfluous alongside the NFL Edge; and for those who do not have access to Premium articles, that article seemed to no longer offer enough quality depth compared to what the industry has grown into.
Over the last two weeks, I have wrestled with this conundrum in search of a way to provide more value with my home page article – and I believe I have found something that works.
Before I break down what I’ll be doing, however, I first need to convey just how strange my mind is at times…
I am incapable of thinking when people around me are talking.
I am incapable of working in a room with noise.
I cannot focus if there is a T.V. screen with moving images in front of me (if I’m trying to work on a plane with screens in the backs of seats – where everyone is watching something – I am screwed).
And I cannot shift tracks to “identifying who I like and dislike” while immersed in research. My mind is simply too one-track oriented.
As such, I pour all of Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday into researching and writing the NFL Edge…and then emerge on Thursday morning (like waking up into a different world) with no idea who I really like and dislike on the slate.
Each Thursday, I read my own article to find out who I like. And each week the rest of the season, I’ll take you along for the ride.
For the rest of this season, you will be able to find a home page version of the NFL Edge. I’ll drop an intro at the top (which you can read if you like, or can skip if that’s the way you play things), then I will highlight some of the sections in the NFL Edge that stood out to me the most upon going back and reading.
For non-Premium RotoGrinders members, this will provide some valuable “Delegation,” as you will be able to gather plenty of research and thoughts in a small space. And for Premium members who have access to the NFL Edge in its entirety, this will provide a look at some of the things that are standing out to me in my reading of that article.
Boat are good things.
Sorry. I mean both.
Bears at Ravens
Highlighted Player: Javorius Allen
Vegas-Implied Total: Ravens 23.25, Bears 16.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Ravens Run D – 22nd DVOA / 20th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O – 19th DVOA / 10th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D – 2nd DVOA / 11th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Bears Pass O – 30th DVOA / 30th Yards per pass attempt
Bears Run D – 16th DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O – 17th DVOA / 12th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D – 20th DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Ravens Pass O – 25th DVOA / 31st Yards per pass attempt
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If the Ravens are throwing the ball at the third-lowest rate in the league, they are rushing the ball at the third-highest rate in the league, which brings me to the one piece I have interest in here: Javorius Allen. With Terrance West likely to miss this week, and with the Ravens A) likely to play with a lead, and B) likely to be able to limit passing volume, we should see a lot of Allen (25 touches, 47 snaps last week) and Alex Collins (12 touches, 16 snaps last week). Because Allen sees the pass game work (37 carries and two targets for Collins the last four weeks; 45 carries and 23 targets for Allen), he’s an excellent bet for volume-driven upside. And while Collins has looked spry between the tackles, I don’t think John Harbaugh wants to lean on him in a close game with his fumbling issues, which means Allen could easily see double the touches Collins sees once again. An Allen / Ravens D stack has a nice ring to it this week.
Added stat: Per RotoWorld’s Rich Hribar (@LordReebs on Twitter – a must-follow), 45.6% of Allen’s carries have come in the fourth quarter – the highest rate in the league. This emphasizes the trust the Ravens have in him with a lead – compared to Collins with his fumbling issues – and further emphasizes the value Allen provides as a home favorite this week.
49ers at Redskins
Highlighted Players: Pierre Garcon, George Kittle, and Kirk Cousins
Vegas-Implied Total: Redskins 28.0, 49ers 18.5
KEY MATCHUPS:
Redskins Run D – 8th DVOA / 16th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O – 31st DVOA / 15th Yards per carry
Redskins Pass D – 7th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per pass attempt
49ers Pass O – 28th DVOA / 27th Yards per pass attempt
49ers Run D – 14th DVOA / 8th Yards allowed per carry
Redskins Run O – 20th DVOA / 8th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D – 26th DVOA / 23rd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Redskins Pass O – 11th DVOA / 4th Yards per pass attempt
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The one thing Hoyer should have on his side is volume, as the 49ers are 9.5 point road dogs. While this is the dreaded “West to East for an early start” spot for the 49ers, and while the Redskins allow the NFL’s third-fewest opponent plays per game at 58.5, the potential for 40+ pass attempts means a strong chance of 10+ looks for Pierre Garcon, with lots of remaining passing work to be spread to running backs, Trent Taylor, Marquise Goodwin, and George Kittle. While the Redskins rank top five in DVOA against all three receiver positions, they rank 31st against tight ends, so Kittle is not a point-chasey play. With that said, Garcon is the only guy we know is going to see targets. We are guessing on the other guys, but the smart money is that Kittle posts the best game through the air among these remaining options, while Goodwin is a tourney dart-throw and Taylor remains a low-upside chain mover.
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Through the air, the Washington offense should be able to remain on track this week as they come off two weeks to prepare for one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Kirk Cousins is another quarterback who jumps off the page for me this week – though he’ll probably move a little ways down my list compared to a few others, as the Redskins rank 27th in passing play percentage and 26th in pace of play with the departure of Sean McVay, and will likely be content to run out the clock for much of the second half with a lead.
Dolphins at Falcons
Highlighted Players: Taylor Gabriel, Austin Hooper
Vegas-Implied Total: Falcons 28.75, Dolphins 17.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Falcons Run D – 29th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O – 30th DVOA / 30th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D – 17th DVOA / 8th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Dolphins Pass O – 29th DVOA / 32nd Yards per pass attempt
Dolphins Run D – 2nd DVOA / 3rd Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O – 3rd DVOA / 4th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D – 29th DVOA / 21st Yards allowed per pass attempt
Falcons Pass O – 14th DVOA / 6th Yards per pass attempt
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While Sanu does not have a high-upside role in this offense, he does leave behind about six or seven targets to be distributed to others. Sarkisian has not shown a major ability to scheme Taylor Gabriel into high-upside production, but he makes sense as a guy to take a shot on in large-field tourneys, given that he’s still been seeing around four to six targets, and could get a couple more this week in a great matchup at low ownership. Austin Hooper may also see a couple more looks against a defense that has seen the third most targets per game to tight ends on the year.
Browns at Texans
Highlighted Players: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins
Vegas-Implied Total: Texans 28.25, Browns 18.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Texans Run D – 4th DVOA / 11th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O – 15th DVOA / 23rd Yards per carry
Texans Pass D – 11th DVOA / 27th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Browns Pass O – 31st DVOA / 28th Yards per pass attempt
Browns Run D – 3rd DVOA / 2nd Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O – 12th DVOA / 6th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D – 31st DVOA / 28th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Texans Pass O – 7th DVOA / 14th Yards per pass attempt
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Two weeks ago, against a team with the fourth-highest blitz rate in the NFL (Tennessee), Deshaun Watson shredded an awful secondary (25th in pass defense DVOA) for 283 yards and four touchdowns. This week, he takes on a Browns team with the highest blitz rate in the NFL and a pass defense that ranks 31st in DVOA. Much like Tennessee (10th in yards allowed per carry), the Browns are tough on the run (second in yards allowed per carry), which should lead to a guaranteed workload for Watson. And while Watson’s rate of pass attempts per touchdown (12.1 – best in the NFL) is bound to drop, the Browns rank dead last in this category themselves (allowing a touchdown every 14 pass attempts). Watson is one of my favorite tourney plays on the weekend, as most sharp players will automatically assume it’s fishy to play him when he is priced so close to established passers – but when we take matchup into account, the upside is still there for him to be the highest-scoring QB on the slate. He’s probably too risky for cash games, as he is a rookie, but this matchup screams at us to trust him once again.
DeAndre Hopkins ranks third in the NFL in percentage share of team air yards, and his specialty (making contested catches, rather than getting huge separation) is playing perfectly to his ultra-aggressive quarterback. Gregg Williams runs an old-school defensive scheme built around blitzes that often expose holes on the back end, while Bill O’Brien is a new-school offensive mind who should be able to scheme circles around Williams – putting his best guys in position to consistently win. I expect a big day from the Watson/Hopkins stack once again, with their elevated prices likely lowering ownership.
Buccaneers at Cardinals
Highlighted Players: Carson Palmer, DeSean Jackson, Adam Humphries
Vegas-Implied Total: Buccaneers 23.5, Cardinals 21.0
KEY MATCHUPS:
Cardinals Run D – 7th DVOA / 6th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O – 16th DVOA / 19th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D – 24th DVOA / 15th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Buccaneers Pass O – 8th DVOA / 9th Yards per pass attempt
Buccaneers Run D – 6th DVOA / 7th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O – 32nd DVOA / 32nd Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D – 27th DVOA / 24th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Cardinals Pass O – 26th DVOA / 18th Yards per pass attempt
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In spite of the low total here, this game has sneaky shootout potential, with the Cardinals ranking first in passing play percentage and the Buccaneers ranking fifth. Furthermore, each of these defenses filters action toward the air – with a strong run-stopping unit and a poor pass-stopping unit. This creates a classic situation for a low total to lead to lower ownership than a game deserves.
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Carson Palmer ranks second in the NFL in passing yards – quite a bit behind Brady at number one, but quite a bit ahead of Alex Smith at number three – and he has thrown the ball 44 or more times in all but one game this year. Last week, he fell nine yards shy of his fourth consecutive 300-yard game, and he was a J.J. Nelson goal-line fumble away from a second touchdown – all in an early start on a West to East game. With his volume, his weapons, and the matchup, I’m still comfortable firing him up in cash games and tourneys. Tampa ranks 32nd in adjusted sack rate and 31st in passing yards allowed per game.
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The really interesting conversation has to circle around the passing offense, where Mike Evans will be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, and where DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries will draw winnable matchups against Justin Bethel and Tyrann Mathieu.
Here are some notable “alpha wide receiver” numbers against the Cardinals this year:
T.Y. Hilton: 4-49-0
Dez Bryant: 2-12-1
Pierre Garcon: 4-36-0
Alshon Jeffery: 3-31-0
Meanwhile, numbers two and three receivers have consistently put up respectable games against this defense. We should expect seven or more volatile, but high-upside targets for DeSean – making him a strong tourney option and even a borderline-viable cash game play – with Humphries drawing seven or more short-area targets, making him an excellent point-per-dollar floor play (especially on DraftKings), and a decent salary saver in tourneys. Humphries and DeSean have combined for one total target inside the red zone, with zero inside the 10, while Evans has drawn six and three such looks, and Cameron Brate has drawn six and two such looks. There is an elevated likelihood this week of such looks going to DeSean and/or Humphries, as James Bettcher’s scheme defends the tight end well, but Brate is in play for his scoring upside, as he should be the first place Jameis looks in scoring range if Peterson is shutting down his star wide receiver.
Chargers at Raiders
Highlighted Player: Philip Rivers
Vegas-Implied Total: N/A
KEY MATCHUPS:
Raiders Run D – 19th DVOA / 18th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O – 26th DVOA / 24th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D – 30th DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Chargers Pass O – 9th DVOA / 17th Yards per pass attempt
Chargers Run D – 26th DVOA / 30th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O – 13th DVOA / 16th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D – 12th DVOA / 16th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Raiders Pass O – 12th DVOA / 20th Yards per pass attempt
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When I looked at this slate on DraftKings at the start of the week, the first thing I noticed was the elevated price that had been assigned to Deshaun Watson against Cleveland. I looked around him and noted that Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, and Matthew Stafford were all priced around him, and I did not even notice Rivers. I feel like that will happen to a lot of people this week; the disappointing storylines surrounding the Chargers (their 1-4 record, their pathetic attendance, etc.) will sort of subconsciously lead to people glossing over Rivers. But 1-4 record or not, this spot offers the second-largest positive DVOA differential on the slate among quarterbacks (with only Watson’s seventh-DVOA Texans against the Browns’ 31st-DVOA pass defense offering a larger positive gap), and Rivers ranks fifth in the NFL in passing yards, seventh in passing touchdowns, fifth in attempts, and third in passing play percentage. The Chargers have been among the worst teams in the league trying to move the ball on the ground (32nd in adjusted line yards, and 29th in rushing yards per game), so we can lock in Rivers for his usual volume – which gives him big upside at what I expect will be far-too-low ownership.
Steelers at Chiefs
Highlighted Players: Kareem Hunt, Antonio Brown
Vegas-Implied Total: Chiefs 25.25, Steelers 20.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Chiefs Run D – 24th DVOA / 27th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O – 11th DVOA / 26th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D – 14th DVOA / 22nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Steelers Pass O – 15th DVOA / 24th Yards per pass attempt
Steelers Run D – 15th DVOA / 31st Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O – 1st DVOA / 1st Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D – 3rd DVOA / 1st Yards allowed per pass attempt
Chiefs Pass O – 1st DVOA / 1st Yards per pass attempt
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The Steelers are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, but are allowing the second most fantasy points per game to running backs. All aboard the Kareem Hunt train?
I will always have usage concerns with a running back in an Andy Reid offense, as we saw years of him holding Jamaal Charles to around 15 or 16 carries, but Hunt was on the field for 71% of snaps last week, and the Chiefs will likely need to lean on him this week with Travis Kelce expected to be out. I’m comfortable locking in Hunt for 20+ touches (which he has seen in three of five games so far – and should see again against a dangerous team that filters work to the ground), which gives him big upside. He’s rarely going to see Bell/Gurley-type usage, but in the most effective rushing offense in the league, he’s seeing more than enough work to matter, even at his price.
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The Chiefs have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs, while allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. The wide receiver situation is interesting, in that the Chiefs have allowed a completion to wide receivers on only 53% of attempts, but when receptions are made, they’re made downfield, with YAC opportunity against man coverage. In spite of ranking in the middle of the pack in terms of receptions allowed to wide receivers, the Chiefs rank seventh in yards allowed and first in touchdowns allowed.
Because no one can cover Antonio Brown one-on-one (and because the Chiefs are almost guaranteed to try it – just as they did in Pittsburgh last year, as that’s simply the way their defense is run), he’s an elite play this week, and is worth the price even in a tough road environment.
Where Will You Be On Sunday?
Study up! – and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend.
We can boat hang out there together.