DFS Alerts

Projections Believe There's a Lot of Value in this Lineup

You want to play it safe and pay up for Aaron Nola or Brandon Woodruff tonight, while Dodger bats dominate hitter projections tonight. You’re going to need to some value bats tonight and while FanDuel suggests you can just be more selective with your Dodgers, projections for both sites agree that you plenty of top value can be found in the Milwaukee lineup tonight. Still in the hunt for the wild card, collectively, the Brewers have struggled against LHP this year, but Tommy Henry has a 6.0 K-BB% through eight starts with his only Quality Start coming against the Pirates in his second major league start. He hasn’t even completed five innings in any of his last three starts and with a 47.1 Z-0-Swing%, is generating a 90.6 mph average exit velocity on contact. He doesn’t have an estimator below five, nor does Statcast rate any of his pitches anywhere close to decent this year by Run Value. RHBs have a .359 wOBA and .355 xwOBA against him. Tyrone Taylor (102 wRC+, .205 ISO vs LHP this season), Keston Hiura (72 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Mike Brosseau (124 wRC+, .152 ISO) are the top three projected DraftKings values for $2.3K or less. Taylor ($2.2K) and Hiura ($2K), along with Andrew McCutchen (107 wRC+, .217 ISO) are top 10 projected FanDuel values for $2.5K or less.

Max Muncy (112 wRC+, .193 ISO) projects as a top overall bat and they top FanDuel value for less than $3K. Will Smith (122 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Justin Turner (120 wRC+, .139 ISO) also double as top bats and top projected FanDuel values within $100 of $3K against Jose Urena (LHBs .390 wOBA, .361 xwOBA – RHBs .290 wOBA, .314 xwOBA).

The only other offense projecting multiple top 10 values are the New York Mets on FanDuel, where Eduardo Escobar (95 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Tyler Naquin (113 wRC+, .213 ISO) for less than $2.5K against Cory Abbott (LHBs .387 wOBA, but just a .319 xwOBA). Abbott has struck out 20.1% of batters this year, but just 18.75% as a starter. He’s also allowed 14 of his 16 barrels (12.3%) as a starter and has just a 27.1 GB%.

Golden State Warriors are releasing Mac McClung and plan to bring in Ty Jerome on a camp deal after clearing waivers.

Golden State Warriors are releasing Mac McClung and plan to bring in Ty Jerome on a camp deal after clearing waivers.

All Top Five Projected Bats Come From This Lineup

The Dodgers top an 11 game Monday night slate at 5.74 implied runs without another offense reaching five runs and only three more exceeding four and a half run team totals. The weather has turned and runs scoring is down. There may not be a word strong enough to describe how much PlateIQ projections love them some Dodgers tonight. The top four projecting bats on either site and five of the top six are Dodgers with another also projected among the top 11 on either site. You can’t legally stack that many Dodgers on DraftKings or FanDuel. Jose Urena has a 22.3 K% over his last four starts, including 12 of his last 46, all Giants. While generating half his contact on the ground (49.7%) and allowing just a single home run on 4.4% Barrels/BBE over his last seven starts, Urena has just a 3.9 K-BB% with estimators ranging from a 4.70 FIP to a 5.39 DRA. LHBs have torched him this year (.390 wOBA, .361 xwOBA), while he’s been fine against RHBs (.290 wOBA, .314 xwOBA). Colorado’s best reliever, Daniel Bard, also threw 35 pitches on Sunday and is probably unavailable tonight. Freddie Freeman (171 wRC+, .199 ISO vs RHP this year), Mookie Betts (134 wRC+, .254 ISO), Max Muncy (112 wRC+, .193 ISO), Trea Turner (120 wRC+, .139 ISO) and Will Smith (122 wRC+, .204 ISO) eat up the top five hitter projections tonight, while Justin Turner (131 wRC+, .181 ISO) is just a bit below.

The only other offense projecting multiple top 10 bats are the Angels and only on FanDuel. Adrian Martinez has allowed 13 home runs on 17 barrels (10%) over 11 starts. Sure, there’s probably some home run regression to come, but none of that is good and mostly wipes out what he’s accomplished with a respectable 13.1 K-BB%. He doesn’t have a single estimator below four or a single contact inclusive one below five. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .342 and .379 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Obviously, Mike Trout (169 wRC+, .351 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (154 wRC+, .273 ISO) are your top Angel bats.

Top Three Projected FanDuel Values Cost No More Than $9K

The top three projected values on FanDuel cost no more than $9K, while the next three each cost more than that. Are all of these pitchers lesser costing pitchers single pitcher site rosterable though? A top two projecting value and overall pitcher on either site, George Kirby has struck out just for of his last 39 batters with as many walks and has exceeded 88 pitches in just one of his last 13 starts. He’s somehow able to overcome these conservative pitch count restrictions to get through six innings with extreme efficiency (24.5 K%, 3.6 BB%), but that hasn’t exactly been the case most recently and the Mariners certainly aren’t going to start pushing him here with more games to play after Wednesday. They can only effect whether they travel to Toronto or Cleveland. A 3.21 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators. That said, the matchup is more than ideal (Tigers 74 wRC+, 24.7 K%, 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP). His bread and butter has been his four-seamer (45.3%, -2 RV/100, 27.1 Whiff%) and the Tigers are the fifth worst offense against fastballs since the break (-0.6 wFB/C). The workload may still be concerning enough to be cautious here.

Projecting as the second best FanDuel value, but just seventh best DraftKings one for $700 more, immediately after showing us his best against the Marlins and Pirates (12 IP – 2 R – 17 K), Carlos Carrasco has shown us his worst the last two times out against the Brewers and Marlins (7 IP – 7 R – 6 K). He’s been a bit banged up recently and his season numbers are not up to his past standards, but a 17.4 K-BB% is more than fine for a back end starter. All estimators are within half a run of his 3.95 ERA with a 4.09 xERA the only one above it. The Nationals (95 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs RHP) have been worst against changeups than any other pitch since the break (-0.32 wCH/C), but does Washington have enough LHBs for Carrasco to fully exploit with his best pitch (24.7%, -1.1 RV/100, 32.2 Whiff%, .260 wOBA, .273 xwOBA)? This is a spot where we’re perhaps more concerned with performance than motivation, as the Mets still have a sliver of life in the division that’s worth fighting for until they’re officially eliminated, which could be tonight. Carrasco is the seventh best projected pitcher overall.

The sixth best projected pitcher overall, but a top three projected value, including the top projected DK value ($7.7K), Patrick Sandoval hasn’t gone six innings in four straight starts. His 23.7 K% is 2.2 points lower than last season, while he still struggled with control (9.6 BB% this year, 9.7% career). He has, however, managed contact very well (6.0%, 34.8% 95+ mph EV). In fact, 12.5% of his season barrels came in his last start, while 25% of them have come in his last four. The shorter outings may have some purpose behind them, although he did throw 94 pitches last time out, also against these A’s (88 wRC+, 22.6 K% vs LHP). While just eight of his 24 barrels have left the yard, all non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.03 ERA. Also, 14.2% of his runs have been unearned. There’s neither reason to push, nor conserve him here, so if we’re assuming a standard workload, Sandoval may be viable on FanDuel tonight, but is certainly an SP2 option.

Considering some other SP2 types, It might be fairly useless to quote Jose Berrios’s numbers at this point (19.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 9.8% Barrels/BBE with estimators ranging from a 4.11 SIERA to a 5.22 xERA). It would probably more benefit GPP players to point out that he has 10 Quality Starts with at least six strikeouts and has allowed at least four runs with less than five strikeouts 10 times also. Last time out, he struck out seven Yankees in 5.2 innings, but also allowed five more runs. Interestingly, the only pitch the Orioles (102 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP) have been below average against since the break is sliders and Berrios does not throw one. Berrios is cheap ($6.2K), but this game seems more likely not to play than to play tonight.

Adrian Martinez has allowed 13 home runs on 17 barrels (10%) over 11 starts. Sure, there’s probably some home run regression to come, but none of that is good and mostly wipes out what he’s accomplished with a respectable 13.1 K-BB%. He doesn’t have a single estimator below four or a single contact inclusive one below five. His slider does have a 40% whiff rate with a wOBA and xwOBA below .300, so perhaps he should throw it more than 20.7% of the time, especially against the Angels (-0.31 wSL/C since the break), who have a 96 wRC+ and 26.7 K% vs RHP, while Martinez costs less than $6K.

Bailey Ober struck out a season high 10 White Sox (93 wRC+, 21 K% vs RHP) in his last start. In fact, that represents more than one-fifth of his strikeouts on the season through 10 starts. With elite control (4.8 BB%), he’s shot up to a 22.6 K%. That sets his contact neutral estimators, but only three of his 17 barrels (11.4%) have left the yard, resulting in a massive gap between a 2.74 FIP and 4.78 xERA. No non-FIP estimators are below four. Ober costs $6.9K and the White Sox are coldest offense on the slate (45 wRC+, 22.3 K-BB%, 5.0 HR/FB last seven days).

Lu Dort suffers concussion in Sunday's practice and has been placed in concussion protocol.

Lu Dort suffers concussion in Sunday’s practice and has been placed in concussion protocol.

MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa (head) out for Week 5.

MIA QB Tua Tagovailoa (head) out for Week 5.

At Least a Pair of Top Arms Will Be Pitching With Motivation Tonight

A large Monday night 11 game slate to start the last half week of the season includes a lot of things and not all of them good. There’s some weather, both pitcher friendly and potentially game washing. We have pitchers returning from injury and those just looking to get or stay on schedule for the post-season with few games that actually mean much. We should expect everyone to compete while they are out there, but might there be some more conservative pitch counts this week? We have five $10K pitchers tonight (four on each site) and another one exceeding $9K on either site. Let’s try to figure out which ones may excel and which aren’t even considerable.

As of Sunday, only one major league pitcher (Carlos Rodon) has more fWAR than Aaron Nola. He’s gone at least seven innings in 15 of his 31 starts with not only a 28.8 K%, but elite control (3.7 BB%), while allowing just a 31.7% hard hit rate (95+ mph EV). His biggest problem is something he can’t do anything about. The defense behind him is at -29 Runs Prevented, which is second worst in baseball by a single RP. As such, all estimators are more than half a run below his 3.36 ERA, but that defense isn’t going anywhere. The Phillies have not yet locked up the last wildcard and have a tough path through Houston (108 wRC+, 20.4 K% vs RHP), but with everything locked up, they have been frequently resting people. Nola projects just inside the top five and as a middling value, but this could be a bit light and make him a great GPP play if it lowers his ownership.

Nola carries the highest price tag on the board, but $100 less on FanDuel and most expensive on DraftKings, Brandon Woodruff has double digit strikeouts in four straight starts (30.6 K% on the year) and five straight Quality Starts with a total of five runs allowed over 33 innings. With just a 6.8 BB% and 7.1% Barrels/BBE, all of Woodruff’s estimators are within a quarter run of his 3.05 ERA, including a nearly matching 3.04 SIERA. The Brewers are the team chasing the Phillies, so you better believe this team is motivated in this spot. It may not affect their performance, but Woodruff won’t be coddled here. In a marginal spot against the Diamondbacks (97 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP), he projects as the top arm on the board and as the fourth best value on either site.

Third most expensive on either site, Lance McCullers Jr. has a 26 K%, but 12.1 BB% with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.1%). All estimators are more than a run above his 2.38 ERA (85.8 LOB%), but the Astros are just looking to keep him healthy and on schedule, while perhaps working on throwing more strikes. He could get a full workload, but he could also get pulled relatively early. The Phillies also represent a difficult matchup (103 wRC+, 22.1, 13.9 HR/FB vs RHP). He projects as just the eight best pitcher tonight and a bottom half of the board value in a spot where he may carry more risk than reward.

Costing $10.1K on DraftKings, but $1.5K less on FanDuel, Tonly Gonsolin spent all of September on the IL and faced just six minor league batters before the season ended. He’s certainly not up for anything even close to a full workload in this spot, projecting as one of the worst pitchers and values on the board tonight against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 22.4 K%).

Joe Musgrove is a pitcher of many strengths with an above average strikeout rate (24.7%), great control (5.6 BB%) and an attractive contact profile (86.6 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE, 33% 95+ mph EV), resulting in estimators ranging from a 3.24 DRA to a 3.65 FIP that are a bit above his 3.03 ERA. With over 70% of his barrels leaving the yard, his 12.9 HR/FB probably merits some regression though. Up until nearly the All-Star break Musgrove was a virtual lock for six innings, but he’s only accomplished that twice over his last seven starts. The Giants have a 99 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP, while the Padres will be on the road for their Wild Card series, but it has not yet been determined who they’ll face. Is it worth pushing Musgrove in order to travel to face the Mets rather than the Cardinals? Probably not, though he may get in a fully standard workload tonight. Assuming so projects him as the third best pitcher on either site and third best DK value (sixth best on FD).

Within $300 of $9.5K on either site, Luis Severino has struck out 10 of 35 batters since returning from the IL, but has thrown just 64 and 76 pitches in two outings. This is a mere tune up for the post-season. Severino does come into this start with an impressive 27.8 K% and a 3.41 that nearly matches his 3.42 SIERA and is in a favorable spot (Rangers 92 wRC+, 24.3 K%) in a great park if the roof remains closed. He projects as a top five arm and as either the fifth or sixth best value, but also carries significant workload risk, though with higher matchup upside than McCullers.

ATL RB Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) placed on IR.

ATL RB Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) placed on IR.

DEN RB Javonte Williams diagnosed with torn ACL.

DEN RB Javonte Williams diagnosed with torn ACL.

TBB WR Russell Gage is active tonight.

TBB WR Russell Gage is active tonight.

KCC RB Ronald Jones is inactive.

KCC RB Ronald Jones is inactive.

TBB WR Breshad Perriman, WR Scotty Miller and TE Kyle Rudolph are inactive

TBB WR Breshad Perriman, WR Scotty Miller and TE Kyle Rudolph are inactive

TBB WR Julio Jones and Chris Godwin are active.

TBB WR Julio Jones and Chris Godwin are active.

KCC WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling is active

KCC WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling is active

Miami Heat sign Tyler Herro to a four-year extension.

Miami Heat sign Tyler Herro to a four-year extension.