DFS Alerts
Red Sox currently have the second-highest implied run total on the slate (5.9)
Tihis Red Sox offense clearly has the ability to go off against pitcher, let alone a run-of-the-mill major league starting pitcher like Tyler Duffey (4.03 SIERA). In tournaments, the Red Sox offense should absorb a substantial amount of the non-Coors ownership, but this may actually be an opportunity to gain an edge on the field, as most players will gravitate to David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Travis Shaw with the platoon advantage. Duffey actually has a slightly above-average strikeout rate to lefties (21.2% K%), an elite ground ball rate (55%) to lefties, and has done a decent job limiting hard contact to lefties (28.0% Hard ). Right-handed batters are the ones who really do the damage against Duffey, as he has only managed a 16.2 K% against them while surrendering an absurd 21.7% HR/FB rate and a less-than-good 35.3% Hard%. This means we can still get exposure the Red Sox offense while being somewhat contrarian. Mookie Betts (130 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .214 ISO vs RHP), Xander Bogaerts (121 wRC+, .360 wOBA vs RHP), and Dustin Pedroia (117 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .152 ISO vs RHP) are the top options we want to target if adopting this approach.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Tyler Duffey
Giancarlo Stanton OUT (along with Realmuto) tonight in Philadelphia against Jerad Eickhoff
Jerad Eickhoff just got a major bump, perhaps becoming tonight’s top value pick on the mound. For unexplainable reasons, he has a tremendous record at home with an 18.4 K-BB% and 9.1 HR/FB over his short career. The Marlins have surprisingly little power to start with against RHP (9.8 HR/FB) along with their 9.9 HR/FB on the road and now the only batter with an ISO above .200 against righties (Giancarlo Stanton) is on the bench tonight. This makes a costly Christian Yelich (150 wRC+, .192 ISO vs RHP this season) the only real threat in this lineup. LHBs do have .335 wOBA against Eickhoff in his career, perhaps giving Derek Dietrich (130 wRC+, .182 ISO since 2015) some value at a low price in the fifth slot tonight despite a -91 wRC+ and 18.8 Hard% since the break and just a .132 ISO vs RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Derek Dietrich
Adam Wainwright hasn't allowed a HR in 10 home starts this season
While the Padres have been hitting the ball decently since the break (23.4 HR/FB), they still have a 24.5 K% vs RHP and have the lowest run projection tonight, the only team below 3.5 runs, in a tough spot in St Louis. Adam Wainright has allowed one run over his last 23 innings, striking out 19 of 85 batters, walking just five without a HR. He’s probably the top pitcher on the slate, but that’s not saying much and he’s also the highest priced. He hasn’t allowed a HR in 10 home starts this season, which is part of the reason his ERA is so low over the last month (2.60), but we can’t expect that to continue indefinitely. The price might be a bit high, but he’s likely affordable with no other high priced pitchers and where else are you going to go with any confidence tonight. He probably has the best chance for a 12 point Win on FanDuel too. San Diego batters are not worth the effort tonight, but Ryan Schimpf is still crushing it (154 wRC+, .385 vs RHP) as an extremely affordable 2B or 3B option.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryan Schimpf One of the worst pitchers on the slate (5.14 SIERA, 5.00 xFIP) has tonight's best matchup in Philadelphia
With just seven games on the slate tonight, it’s difficult to consider punting entire matchups, but this is an ugly one. The Phillies have 64 wRC+ at home and a 35 team wRC+ since the break. They have just one real above average hitter against RHP this season in Odubel Herrera (129 wRC+ .162 ISO), but he’s quite expensive on either site. Both RH and LH batters have a wOBA above .340 against Tom Koehler since last year. He has a total of eight strikeouts and has lasted just 16 innings over his last four starts. Perhaps Ryan Howard (55 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP this season) is worth praying for a HR for just $2.1K on FanDuel, but no other batter in the lineup tonight has a wRC+ above 50 since the break.
Other tagged players: Ryan Howard, Tom Koehler Orioles-Yankees game looks to be a high-scoring affair
Chris Tillman and CC Sabathia take the mound today as the Yankees look to complete a three game sweep of the Orioles. Vegas has given the game a run total of nine with the Yankees slight favorites. Tillman had a good start to the season but over his last six starts has a 5.81 SIERA with a paltry 12.5% K rate. Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann are the top options for the Yankees with Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Mark Teixeira secondary options. Sabathia also had a solid start to his season but the last month has seen him put up an ERA of 7.94. Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, and Mark Trumbo are the three you want to target from the Orioles with Nolan Reimold worth a look as he is leading off today as Adam Jones gets the day off. Joey Rickard also has the day off due to a thumb injury he suffered last night.
As reported by: New York Yankees official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Nolan Reimold
Jayson Werth scratched, Michael Taylor replaces him in the lineup
Jayson Werth has been scratched for Thursday’s early game against the Dodgers. Michael Taylor will bat 2nd in his place.
As reported by: Jamal Collier Other tagged players: Michael A. Taylor
Stephen Strasburg top SP option on Thursday against Dodgers
For those playing the all day slate or small two game early slate, Stephen Strasburg is a clear top option at SP today going against a Dodgers team that is middle of the pack against RHP. Corey Seager continues to not play and the rest of the Dodgers lineup can be avoided. The Nationals take on promising rookie Julio Urias who has struggled against RH bats thus far in his debut season to the tune of a .363 wOBA. Jayson Werth, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Wilson Ramos are all excellent options from the RH side of the plate for the Nationals while LH bats Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are intriguing upside options given that they will likely be under owned due to the lefty vs lefty match up against Urias.
As reported by: Eric Stephen on Twitter Other tagged players: Wilson Ramos, Julio Urias Angels implied run total has increased to 4.9 runs
Martin Perez (5.35 SIERA, 1.0% K-BB%) is not a major league pitcher, at least his advanced stats say he shouldn’t be. Perez does a decent job of limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground (53.9% GB%). However, that’s where the positives end. Perez struggles the most with right-handed batters (5.03 xFIP, .340 wOBA, 0.5% K-BB%) as we might expect, but the splits are substantial considering how much larger the sample size is for RHB. The outfield is loaded at the top on this slate, meaning Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .415 wOBA, .251 ISO vs LHP since 2015) could fly under the radar, which is never a bad thing for us when targeting the best hitter in baseball. The remaining top of the Angels order all make for decent secondary options to pair with Trout. Yunel Escobar (169 wRC+, .416 wOBA, .205 ISO vs LHP), Kole Calhoun (143 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .191 ISO vs LHP), and Albert Pujols (130 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .262 ISO vs LHP) would be the bats to target.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Yunel Escobar, Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Martin Perez Hector Santiago has allowed one ER or less in five of his last six starts, but has an 87.0 LOB% and 37.8 Hard%
Hector Santiago hasn’t allowed an ER in three starts with just one in two of his previous three. Over this span of six starts, he has .219 BABIP with an 87.0 LOB% and 5.6 HR/FB with a league average 12.6 K-BB% and 37.8% hard hit rate. While he has some fans in the daily fantasy community, players always have to wondder when that hard contact is going to come back to bite him. The Rangers have several above average bats against LHP and RHBs have a .322 wOBA against Santiago since last season. Ian Desmond (166 wRC+, .202 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top bat here and $4.3K on either site. Adrian Beltre (145 wRC+, .223 ISO vs LHP since last season has seven extra-base hits in 42 career PAs against Santiago, while Ryan Rua (142 wRC+, .188 ISO vs LHP this season) is a cheap bat ($3.2K on either site) in the cleanup spot. The hidden bargain may be in the 8th spot for those looking for a cheap catcher though. Robinson Chirinos (128 wRC+, .260 ISO vs LHP since last season) homered twice last night and has a .452 ISO in July (31 ABs), costing less than $3K on either site.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Robinson Chirinos, Hector Santiago, Ryan Rua Jaime Garcia has a near league average strikeout rate (19.3%) with the 3rd best GB rate (58.5%)
Jaime Garcia strikes out batters at a near league average rate (19.3%), though he walks them at a league average rate too, but has the third best ground ball rate (58.5%) in baseball with just a 27.6 Hard%. San Diego is the top offense in baseball vs LHP (17.8 HR/FB), but still strike out 24.3% of the time against them. He does have the advantage of keeping RHBs on the ground more than LHBs (61.3% to 47.8%), though nine of his 10 HRs have still come against RHBs because his K-BB is also cut in half against them (9.0% to 19.1%) with a 15.8 HR/FB. Batters from both sides have just a .281 wOBA against him since last season. Garcia might not have big upside, but shouldn’t get hurt too bad here. The two through four batters all have a wRC+ above 150 with an ISO above .250 against LHP this season, but all cost at least $4.9K on DraftKings and only Kemp is below $3.6K on FanDuel, where he might be viable. This is not a good enough spot to be paying up for those bats tonight and pretty much takes us off of the entire San Diego lineup here, who have one of the lowest run projections on the board at just 3.6 runs tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Matt Kemp Cardinals rolling out a watered-down lineup in Game 2 of doubleheader
With a double header, the Cardinals are sitting a number of regulars, opening up some salary-saving options. Paul Clemens (6.32 SIERA, -1.6 K-BB%) has allowed a .396 wOBA while surrendering 2.38 HR/9 to right-handed batters in his short career. We typically only go out of our way to roster Stephen Piscotty against lefties but he still is more than capable of hitting right-handed pitching (121 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .176 ISO since 2015) as awful as Clemens. The entire top half of the Cardinals order is in play for stacking in tournaments, but Tommy Pham (142 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Greg Garcia (157 wRC+, .405 wOBA vs RHP), and Jedd Gyorko (124 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .265 ISO vs RHP) make for the best options and can provide some salary relief to pay up elsewhere.
Other tagged players: Tommy Pham, Greg Garcia, Jedd Gyorko, Paul Clemens Kevin gives us the "All Clear" on Wendesday night
The second game of the San Diego/St Louis doubleheader is the only game even mentioned for the slight possibility of an isolated Thunderstorm, Kevin’s evening update is very short with no other issues in the seven games around the league. Players can still read the report for themselves on our Weather Page, linked below, and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates if necessary.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Chase Headley scratched Wednesday
Headley has been excused from tonight’s game due to personal reasons. Ronald Torreyes will now play 3rd and bat 9th, with Aaron Hicks moving up one spot in the order. Nothing really changes here from a DFS perspective.
As reported by: Ari Kramer Other tagged players: Ronald Torreyes
Corey Seager OUT of the lineup tonight
Gio Gonzalez had a fantastic start to the season and seemed to finally have figured out how to be more consistent with the control aspect of his game. Over the last month, Gonzalez has relapsed to his old ways, walking at least three batters in all but one start. The Dodgers are not a particularly good offense against left-handed pitching (80 wRC+, .289 wOBA, .137 ISO) and strikeout at a 20.9% clip, so if Gonzalez can find his control tonight, the upside is absolutely there in this matchup. There isn’t a ton to like in the Dodgers lineup either so targeting some lower cost hitters may be the way to attack Gonzalez on this slate. Scott Van Slyke (131 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .165 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Yasiel Puig (116 wRC+, .337 wOBA, .187 ISO vs LHP since 2015) are the beneficiaries of slight lineup bumps and have typically hit LHP well. Chris Taylor has been raking since the All-Star break (329 wRC+, .655 wOBA, .583 ISO last 7 days) and gets to bat in the two-hole tonight with Seager out of the lineup.
Other tagged players: Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Gio Gonzalez Machado joins C.Davis and Wieters on the bench against Pineda tonight
Michael Pineda has allowed five ERs in each of his last two starts. One can be forgiven against the mighty Red Sox at Yankee Stadium and he allowed just an 11.8 Hard% in the other against the White Sox. HRs are just something that is going to happen against him at home, but he retains the fifth highest SwStr (13.7%) and seventh best K-BB (21.1%) in baseball and in daily fantasy, sometimes that’s more important than runs. A slugging Baltimore offense has a 16.2 HR/FB vs RHP, but just a 7.8 HR/FB since the break as they’ve been shut down without Chris Davis in the lineup in the first two games of this series. Tonight, Manny Machado joins him on the bench making Michael Pineda a nearly must play with the top upside of any pitcher tonight for less than $8K on either site. The blowup potential is still there, the board is so weak that it’s going to be incredibly difficult to entirely avoid him, especially on two pitcher sites with multiple lineups. Baltimore’s run projection was actually just below four runs before this lineup came out and with plenty of other arms to pick on, this is one night players might stray from Oriole bats with the possible exception of the one LHB with power: Pedro Alvarez (124 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP this season), now in the fifth spot for $3.6K or less on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Pedro Alvarez