DFS Alerts
Jeremy Hellickson has a 16.5 HR/FB, Stanton has a 58.3 Hard% since the break
This is about the most neutral spot your going to find on the slate tonight with both sides having some moderate value. Jeremy Hellickson has seen a dip in strikeout rate over the last month, but a 10.9 SwStr% suggests he should bump back up. He has a 25.2 LD% and has been a bit HR prone (16.5 HR/FB), but a lot of that might be park related because he has just a 6.0 Hard-Soft% this season. A solidly above average 15.4 K-BB% makes him, if nothing else, a reasonable choice at a reasonable price against a Marlins team surprisingly lacking in power against RHP (9.8 HR/FB). That power resides mostly in Giancarlo Stanton as the only bat in the lineup with an ISO above .200 vs RHP this season (.225) and though he costs quite a bit ($3.6K on FD, $4.9K on DK) players are probably going to want some exposure to that power in this park. He has a 58.3 Hard% since the break. At the same cost, Christian Yelich has a 151 wRC+ vs RHP this year with decent power (.195 ISO) and LHBs do hit Hellickson a bit better (.345 wOBA vs .319 since last season). J.T. Realmuto (126 wRC+ vs RHP this season) has some value for $3K in the leadoff spot on FanDuel, but costs $4.7K on DraftKings without any real power (.106 ISO).
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Jeremy Hellickson, J.T. Realmuto
Will the real Bud Norris please stand up?
With each passing start, what Norris is doing continues to look more and more legit. Since returning to the rotation with Atlanta, Norris has posted a 3.24 SIERA to go along with a 19.9% K-BB% and a 53.3% GB%. The increases in strikeouts is even supported by a respectable 11.3% SwStr%. There is some concern with his lack of innings, as Norris has only topped six innings pitched once in his last six starts, so that does cap his upside to some extent. Norris has had problems with left-handed batters (4.86 xFIP, .373 wOBA, 5.0% K-BB%), so he’ll need to find a way to navigate Daniel Murphy (173 wRC+, .432 wOBA, .268 ISO vs RHP) and Bryce Harper (132 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .222 ISO vs RHP), but this Nationals team is just an average offense against right-handed pitching (93 wRC+, .313 wOBA, .166 ISO).
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper
Jeff Locke has allowed just five HRs at home, but has 3 or fewer Ks in 11 of last 12 starts
Jeff Locke pitches in a great park for a lefty, but has struck out three or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts, which puts players completely at the mercy of a league average batting ball and contact profile, lacking any upside. Only five of his 14 HRs have come at home though, so Brewers bats don’t look very attractive either in a park that punishes RH power. While Chris Carter (.338 ISO vs LHP this season) may be able to overcome that, it’s questionable whether that’s worth $3.6K or more on either site. He’s a streaky bat too with just a 4 wRC+ since the break. Jonathan Villar (143 wRC+ vs LHP this season) relies more on speed than power, he costs $4.8K on DraftKings for a lineup projected to score just four runs. Ryan Braun (164 wRC+, .236 ISO vs LHP this season) is the best all around hitter here and may be most likely to worth more than his moderate $4.2K price tag on DK as RHBs have a .333 wOBA against Locke since last season. This looks more like a good spot to fade though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jeff Locke, Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter Beltran (.206 ISO vs RHP since 2015) still costs $3.7K on DK & Gallardo has his lowest GB rate (40.4%) since 2007
Yovani Gallardo has eight walks and just four strikeouts over his last two starts. His 40.4 GB% is his lowest since his rookie season of 2007, while his 29.0 Hard% is on his career mark, but the Yankees have been able to turn lesser hit hard rates at home and against RHP into a 13.1 HR/FB each with the short RF porch. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to park baseballs there tonight with Gallardo’s 5.8 SwStr% this season. They’re projection of five runs is third best on the slate and LHBs have a .349 wOBA against Gallardo since last season. While every single one of them appears playable tonight, the two biggest bargains are Carlos Beltran (123 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who has an identical wRC+ at home over that period and costs just $3.7K on DraftKings (he’s the top overall bat in the lineup too, though more costly on FanDuel) and Mark Teixeira (118 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP since 2015) at just $3.2K or less on either site. He has struggled to find his footing against RHP in between injuries this year though with just a 46 wRC+ and .150 ISO.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Yovani Gallardo, Mark Teixeira Matt Cain set to make his return from the DL tonight, gets nightmare matchup versus Boston
To put it mildly, it’s tough to imagine Cain escaping this matchup with the Red Sox at Fenway Park unscathed. Cain (4.85 SIERA) isn’t the same pitcher he was three or four years ago and it has shown in his results the past two seasons. The entire Red Sox lineup is play tonight and is the top stack on the board. David Ortiz (202 wRC+, .479 wOBA, .395 ISO vs RHP) is not only the top play on the Red Sox offense but is arguably the top overall play tonight at any position. Xander Bogaerts (121 wRC+, .361 wOBA vs RHP) is basically a cash game staple for what should be the highest scoring offense on the night. Dustin Pedroia (119 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .154 ISO vs RHP) certainly deserves to be considered as integral part of any Red Sox stack, as his lineup spot gives him a huge amount of upside if the Red Sox go off. We can’t forget about Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley as well. Betts has a .370 wOBA, .211 ISO and 14% strikeout rate against RHP. Bradley has big power with a .287 ISO and 40% hard hit rate against RHP.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Matt Cain The Phillies have a 63 wRC+ at home and 64 wRC+ with a 17.9 K-BB% vs LHP
Wei-Yin Chen has been inconsistent and not very good this year. He’s allowed 19 HRs, but more importantly, the Phillies have a 63 wRC+ with a 16.4 K-BB% at home and 64 wRC+ with a 17.9 K-BB% vs LHP. Additionally, they have a 22.0 K-BB% and 14.9 Hard% since the All Star break. By default and just by showing up, Chen becomes a top pitcher tonight, especially for just $6.8K on DraftKings, even if the Phillies do line up all RHBs, who have a .343 wOBA and 33.1 Hard% because many of those RHBs can’t hit LHP. They have the second lowest run projection tonight (3.76). He did fail to strike out a Phillie in one of his two starts against them, but sent down six of 24 on strikes in the second attempt. The absence of two of Philadelphia’s top bats in Herrera and Rupp tonight only strengthens his position, though Carlos Ruiz has remained strong vs LHP this season (149 wRC+, .231 ISO). Tommy Joseph (195 wRC+, .357 ISO vs RHP) is the one bat players should definitely not punt as he might be the top 1B bat behind Ortiz tonight, but Maikel Franco (109 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP career) is the only other bat near average against LHP this or last year, but he has a -91 wRC+ and 20 Hard% since the break. One thing in Philadelphia’s favor tonight is umpire Laz Diaz expected to be behind the plate, who Swish Analytics rates as very hitter friendly.
As reported by: Swish Analytics Other tagged players: Tommy Joseph, Carlos Ruiz, Maikel Franco Pomeranz has the top price tag and K rate (28%) tonight, but also some concerns
Drew Pomeranz makes his first Boston start against a familiar opponent this year, walking nine against 15 strikeouts in 17.1 innings with five runs against these Giants. He has the top strikeout rate on the night slate (28.0%) and the top price tag by at least $1.7K on either site. While he’s still probably a top three overall pitcher on this slate, there are a couple of things working against him that bring his potential value at this cost into question. Boston is a significant park downgrade and he will no longer be facing the pitcher, while the Giants have just an 18.5 K% vs LHP without even accounting for the DH tonight. The Giants don’t even have as low a run projection as you might expect (3.95). Pomeranz has also only gone more than six innings in seven of 17 starts with an 2.47 ERA propped up a bit by a .240 BABIP, 80.8 LOB%, and an 8.8 HR/FB that will be more vulnerable in the AL East. While this is not a suggestion to fade Pomeranz entirely, perhaps players don’t need to try as hard to fit him lineups don’t otherwise allow it. This is still obviously a pitcher players aren’t looking to attack tonight with so many other wonderful targets on the slate. Buster Posey has homered twice against him in 13 ABs with a 98.3 mph aEV on the last six batted balls.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Buster Posey RHBs have a .361 wOBA and 34.8 Hard% with 23 HRs against Chase Anderson since 2015
Chase Anderson has failed to reach five innings in any of his last four starts with a -6.3 K-BB% over the last month. With the changeup being his best pitch, RHBs hit him a lot harder (.361 wOBA, 34.8 Hard% since last season with 23 of his 36 HRs allowed). This is likely why John Jaso takes a seat tonight as the Pirates go with seven RHBs. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh punishes RH power, but the top five RHBs in the order all have a home wRC+ above 120 since last season. It might be a death by a thousand cuts rather than swift, hard blows, but the Pirates, projected for a strong 4.94 runs tonight, should get there tonight. Strangely, everyone except in this lineup may be a decent or better value except leadoff hitter Polanco (140 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP this season) at a high cost on either site. Starling Marte (126 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP since 2015) runs $5.5K on DraftKings, but might be the top bat here and likely still affordable do to the lack of high priced pitching tonight. He’s also the only RHB batter in the top six with a wRC+ above 70 coming out of the break, to which he adds a 58.3 Hard%.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Gregory Polanco, Chase Anderson SEA Lineup Clarification: Adam Lind will start at 1B and bat 6th, Dae-Ho Lee is not in the lineup
There were conflicting reports around lineup lock as to whether Lind or Lee would be the starting 1B, and while Lee was originally reported as the starter, it’ll in fact be Lind manning first and batting sixth.
Other tagged players: Dae-Ho Lee
King Felix returns to the mound today for Seattle
While Vegas has given the White Sox one of the lowest run totals of the day at just over 3 1/4 runs, it’s hard to trust Felix Hernandez as he will be making his first start in over a month and will likely be limited as to how far he goes. The upside is always there with Hernandez but it’s a pretty big risk to take today. That said, you’ll want to avoid the White Sox bats in all but the most contrarian of GPP lineups. The Mariners have some appeal as they take on Miguel Gonzalez who has allowed a .325+ wOBA to both sides of the plate. The top seven of their lineup are all in play with Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz the top options as usual for them. Kyle Seager and Seth Smith are also strong options, especially as part of a M’s team stack.
As reported by: Seattle Mariners official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Robinson Cano
Target Oakland left-handed bats today against Doug Fister
Astros SP Doug Fister has allowed a .347 wOBA and 20 HR’s to LH hitters over the last two seasons making Oakland a sneaky team to utilize today in DFS. Josh Reddick and Stephen Vogt are the top targets from the team with Coco Crisp, Yonder Alonso, and Khris Davis secondary options. Danny Valencia gets the day off for the A’s. Daniel Mengden will start for Oakland and he has struggled thus far against LH bats (.354 wOBA allowed). Fortunately for him the Astros LH bats aren’t the bats you typically worry about. Luis Valbuena and Colby Rasmus are worth consideration as well as the usual trio of George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa.
As reported by: Houston Astros official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Stephen Vogt, Luis Valbuena Blue Jays have plus match up against Patrick Corbin today
While the Blue Jays haven’t hit LHP like they did in 2015, they have shown signs of turning that around and get to face an average LHP in Patrick Corbin in a hitter friendly park today. Vegas projects Toronto to top five runs making Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion top plays at their respective positions today. Those two are expensive, however, so if you want cheaper exposure to the game look to Darwin Barney who is leading off and Russell Martin who is batting clean up. Troy Tulowitzki and Kevin Pillar are secondary options. Marcus Stroman takes the mound for the Blue Jays and while he does have a very high ERA (5.15), his SIERA is nearly a run and a half lower. He makes for an intriguing GPP play that will be under-owned going against a Dbacks team that strikes out a ton (23.3%) against RHP. Most of the Dbacks bats outside of perhaps Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb can be avoided today.
As reported by: Arizona Diamondbacks official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Patrick Corbin, Marcus Stroman Tyler Collins scratched from Detroit starting lineup; Mike Aviles to start in his place
Collins has been scratched from the Tigers lineup due to neck spasms. Mike Aviles will start instead and bat 7th.
As reported by: Jason Beck on Twitter Other tagged players: Mike Aviles Rays against LHP at Coors means DFS goodness
Tampa is one of the top five teams in baseball against LHP (5th in wOBA, 5th in ISO) and get to face a LHP Jorge De La Rosa at Coors Field today. While the Rockies have a slightly higher run projection, Tampa might be the preferred side of this game to target. Logan Forsythe and Evan Longoria are the top two options and their prices reflect that. Brandon Guyer, Steve Pearce, and Steve Souza provide slightly more affordable options from the Rays lineup and are all in the top five of the lineup. Chris Archer has all the upside in the world but this isn’t a time to target him – Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez are the two to focus on but anyone in the lineup is viable with Daniel Descalso and Tony Wolters being your two cheapest (and LH bats) options if you are looking for some cheaper exposure to the Rockies.
As reported by: Patrick Saunders on Twitter Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez Cubs and Kyle Hendricks large favorites against Mets today
The Cubs are expected to run away in their game today against Bartolo Colon and the Mets as Vegas has listed the team as -177 favorites and projected the Cubs to top five runs. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are the top options from the Cubs today with Ben Zobrist and Willson Contreras also worth consideration. Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for the Cubs and while he doesn’t have a lot of upside, is a relatively safe choice going against a Mets offense that struggles most of the time and looks underwhelming today with no Neil Walker, Yoenis Cespedes, or Asdrubal Cabrera in the lineup.
As reported by: New York Mets official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Bartolo Colon, Anthony Rizzo, Yoenis Cespedes