DFS Alerts
Jake Lamb (172 wRC+, .347 ISO vs RHP this season) is a steal for $3.5K on FanDuel
Dan Straily has exceeded expectations due to a .232 BABIP, though he has a fairly normal batted ball profile and doesn’t limit hard contact in any way. A double digit walk rate should get him into more trouble in a power friendly park. While RHBs have just a .282 wOBA (32.7 Hard%) against him since last year, Paul Goldschmidt (146 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a solid First Base option, though maybe not the top one on a strong day for the position. His $4.3K cost on DraftKings makes him more interesting though. With a .311 wOBA for LHBs and Jake Lamb smoking the ball (172 wRC+, .347 ISO vs RHP this season) he’s one of the top options at another strong position and a great bargain for $3.5K on FanDuel. The two most potent Arizona bats grade out near the top of the BAT projections tonight. While well below average bats against RHP this season, both Castillo and Tomas cost well below $3K on either site.
As reported by: The BAT Projections Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Welington Castillo, Yasmany Tomas, Dan Straily
Joey Votto has been on fire since the break (307 wRC+, 62.5 Hard%)
Both lefties and righties have a wOBA right around .330 against Archie Bradley since last season and also a hard hit rate above 36%. While the Reds have just an 80 wRC+ vs RHP and several automatic outs, there is also some potency in three of those bats that could do some damage tonight. Joey Votto (161 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is near the top of a great First Base crop tonight and still a good value at less than $5K on either site. He has a 307 wRC+ and 62.5 Hard% since the break. Jay Bruce (108 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Adam Duvall (115 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP) now below $4K are fine OF options. Billy Hamilton (67 wRC+ vs RHP this season) moves into the leadoff spot and has at least been competent since the break (103 wRC+).
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall, Billy Hamilton, Archie Bradley Starling Marte scratched Thursday; Matt Joyce to replace him in the lineup
Joyce now becomes a very strong punt play against Matt Garza, who should have a very tough time with the Pirates lineup. He’s among the top overall plays on FanDuel considering he’s available at minimum price and should carry a very low ownership percentage.
As reported by: @Pirates Other tagged players: Matt Joyce
Sonny Gray has just a 3.8 K-BB% over the last month, but a 57.5 GB% and the Rays K 24.4% vs RHP
Sonny Gray has walked eight and struck out seven over his last two starts (55 batters). He has just an 8.4 K-BB% this season and 3.8% over the last month, though a 57.5 GB% with a 25.9 Hard%. For this reason, we’re not on Rays bats in a tough park even though they have some power. They also strike out 24.4% of the time against RHP and with a weather report of some cooler temperatures potentially in Oakland tonight (in the 60’s), perhaps he gains some value for just $6.1K as a secondary option on DraftKings if you’re not feeling the Coors pitchers tonight. It’s always a risk when depending on batted ball outcomes more than strikeouts for fantasy points, but the low price point makes it less risky on such a difficult slate.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Kevin's Weather post has been updated to include potential for late-inning storms in Chicago
It’s not looking like you’ll need to avoid bats in this game and it’s not like we’re recommending either arm, so not a whole lot changes here except for an increased risk for a late-inning delay.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Kevin Roth's Weather post has been updated; we're still YLW/ORG in Colorado
Tonight’s slate is fairly clear in terms of precipitation, with the game in Coors being the only one with any legitimate concern. However, as it typically goes with Coors contests, the upside here outweighs the potential for a rainout.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Marcus Semien (163 wRC+, .373 ISO vs LHP) is in the leadoff spot against Matt Moore in Oakland
Matt Moore did have one strong start against Boston to end June, but has just a 9.4 K% (2.3 K-BB%) in three July starts with a .224 BABIP and 81.7 LOB%. He also has just a 31.1 GB% (0.61 GB/FB), which actually might help him in Oakland, though the A’s have just an 18.1 K% at home and vs LHP. It’s going to be a bit cooler in Oakland tonight, around 70, which may limit the lefty mashing ability of the A’s, but RHBs have a .343 wOBA against Moore since last season. Marcus Semien carries the highest price tag on either site, but has absolutely crushed LHP this season (163 wRC+, .373 ISO) and gets the leadoff spot tonight. Valencia (185 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP this season) and Davis (97 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP this season) bat fourth and fifth at similarly marginal price tags. Unfortunately, the lowly priced Jake Smolinski (208 wRC+, .349 ISO vs LHP this season) bats eighth, but may still be able to overcome his cost in fewer opportunities with those numbers.
Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Khris Davis, Jake Smolinski, Matt Moore Arenado sites vs Foltynewicz (top K% on the slate - 21.7%) in Colorado
The Rockies are making it a bit more difficult to not think about Mike Foltynewicz tonight. They were the top projected lineup at nearly seven runs tonight, but that has to drop a bit without one of their top two bats (Arenado). Foltynewicz has allowed 11 HRs in 10 starts, but seven of those came in two starts and three in his first inning against the Mets this year. He doesn’t walk batters, his 16.1 K-BB% is well above average and he’s managed contact well with what would be the sixth highest rate of weak contact in the league (23.2%) if he had enough innings to qualify. In any other park, this might be the main guy on an ugly slate. Talk about extreme splits, RHBs have just a .295 wOBA against him with a 52.0 GB% and just a 26.0 Hard%. This perhaps explain’s Arenado’s night off and it’s still not likely to go well for him because LHBs have done well (.359 wOBA, 21.9 GB%, 32.8 Hard%), but it’s at least a little bit interesting at a low price. Story (106 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP) and Cargo (134 wRC+, .220 ISO vs LHP this season) are still top bats, along with Blackmon (122 wRC+, .197 ISO vs RHP this season) and players should be able to afford most of them tonight, but Arenado’s absence actually makes a guy like Descalso (144 wRC+ vs RHP this season) a great bargain hitting fifth.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Daniel Descalso, Charlie Blackmon, Mike Foltynewicz White Sox are behind only the Rockies and Red Sox in run projection against Pelfrey tonight
It takes a pitcher like Mike Pelfrey to interest daily fantasy players in multiple White Sox bats. Only the Rockies and Red Sox have a higher run projection tonight (5.43 runs). While batters from each side have a wOBA just above .370 against him since last season, there’s more than a nine point difference in hit hard rate (32.7% vs 23.5%), heavily in favor of LHBs. He generally keeps RHBs on the ground (56.8% this year), so the damage they do is probably going to be more along the lines of driving in runners already on base, though they do have seven HRs against him this year, so let’s not write off Abreu (103 wRC+, .163 ISO vs RHP this season) or Frazier (98 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP this season). Eaton (96 wRC+, .130 ISO vs RHP this season) is one of the top bats here, while Cabrera (109 wRC+, .154 ISO vs RHP this season) and Morneau (101 wRC+, .147 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are strong values for $3.6K or less on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Justin Morneau, Todd Frazier, Jose Abreu Chad Bettis has a 13.5 K-BB% and 13.8 HR/FB at home since last season with a 55.3 GB% vs LHBs this year
While we never want to write off an offense in Colorado, consider that the Braves are so bad (74 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP) that the massive Coors bump might only make them average. Chad Bettis hasn’t been terrible at home in his career according to his peripherals, despite his 6.37 ERA. He actually has a and those would be perfectly league average numbers this season. It’s no surprise that he has an elevated BABIP at home as the park incites it, but consider that he has equaled and improved his SwStr% in six straight starts, all in double digits. He also has a reverse split this year with LHBs having just an average .326 wOBA and 55.3 GB% against him, while he’ll only face two RHBs (.364 wOBA and 10 of his 14 HRs). Gordon Beckham (112 wRC+, .150 ISO vs RHP this season) may be the value play here and you never want to count out Freddie Freeman (114 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP this season) in a great park, but DraftKings players especially might want to consider Bettis at a low cost with all of the highly priced and projected bats tonight. There are four teams projected for a higher run total than the Braves tonight and that’s something that hardly ever happens at Coors.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Gordon Beckham Adam Frazier gets the nod at lead off, Pirates implied run total has increased to 5.1 runs
The new version of Matt Garza is a pitcher that doesn’t strike anyone out (12.8% K%), walks a tad too many batters (7.4% BB%), and allows a massive amount of hard contact (38.8% Hard %). This is a great spot to stack the Pirates in tournaments and they may go overlooked with all the other high totals on the slate. Every bat in the top half of the order or so is a more than viable option in tournaments as well. Gregory Polanco (137 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .220 ISO vs RHP), Starling Marte (136 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .162 ISO vs RHP), and Andrew McCutchen (127 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .186 ISO vs RHP) stand out as the high-upside options to force into our stacks or just sprinkle an individual bat or two in lineups from this matchup. Adam Frazier (119 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .231 ISO vs RHP) gets the bump to lead off spot and has to be considered given his relatively inexpensive price tag at the desolate SS position.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Starling Marte, Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Garza
Piscotty OUT, Gyorko leads off against RH Cashner in St Louis
After the double-header yesterday, the Cardinals have made some alterations to their lineup, moving the red hot Jedd Gyorko (344 wRC+, 53.3 Hard% since the break) into the leadoff spot against a RHP, while Stephen Piscotty gets a day off. Unfortunately, RHBs only have a .295 wOBA and 25.9 Hard% against Cashner since last season. They do have a .395 wOBA against him this year, but with a 58.6 GB% and just a 26.9 Hard%. The Cardinals are one of several lineups projected for more than five runs, but perhaps expectations may need to be tempered with this lineup offering that has one of their two LHBs (.368 wOBA, 34.6 Hard% vs Cashner since last season) batting eighth. Matt Adams (110 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP this season) in the cleanup spot, is a top value for $3.5K or less, especially on DraftKings.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jedd Gyorko, Andrew Cashner Shields has allowed just six runs over his last four starts, but has just a 10.9 K% with a .195 BABIP & 98.2 LOB%
James Shields has allowed a total of six runs over his last four starts, but has just a 10.9 K% with a .195 BABIP (25.2 LD%, 8.9 Soft%) and 98.2 LOB%. Half the slate has a projection above five runs tonight and Detroit is one of those teams. Though they’ve been burning players lately, they’re in another good spot here. Although the Tigers have just two LHBs, they have a .371 wOBA against Shields since last season, making Jarrod Saltalamacchia (120 wRC+, .263 ISO vs RHP this season) a top Catcher among a terrible batch tonight. RHBs have a .327 wOBA against him since last season too, making Miggy Cabrera (148 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP this year), Kinsler (118 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP this year) and Castellanos (141 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP this season) strong plays as well. And perhaps Justin Upton (74 wRC+, .142 ISO vs RHP this season) is coming around too with with a 121 wRC+ and 50 Hard% since the break. If so, he would be the value play here for $3.5K or less on either site.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton Steven Wright still has an ERA (2.78) nearly two runs lower than his 4.46 SIERA
Wright is not a great pitcher. There may not be a starting pitcher in the majors that has gotten more lucky this season. We shouldn’t plan to target Wright on this slate as he is one the most expensive options and really doesn’t have all that much more upside than the lower priced options. As much as we do not want to believe in what Wright is doing, it’s typically tough to want to use hitters against him. Wright limits hard contact to lefties at an elite rate (19.7% Hard%), and while RHB manage a 33% Hard%, he strikes out righties at an above-average rate (21.9% K%). There is home run upside to be found in taking right-handed bats against Wright which is where we want to look since Wright has yet to really blow up this season. This means that Eduardo Nunez (104 wRC+, .330 wOBA vs RHP), Brian Dozier (172 ISO bs RHP), and Miguel Sano (.199 ISO vs RHP) are all solid tournament plays. Kennys Vargas (139 wRC+, .381 wOBA, .310 ISO vs RHP) could be worth a look as well as he has mashed RHP thus far in a very limited sample size.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano Lucroy OUT against Liriano (the highest K% outside of Colorado tonight) in Pittsburgh
Francisco LIriano has struck out just 16.1% of batters over the last month, but his 10.5 SwStr% is consistent with his season rate. When you throw as many balls as he does, you don’t often get to strike three before ball four. He’s walking a league leading 13.6% of batters and is just two HRs away from a new high in a Pirate uniform as his hard hit rate is up 10 points from the previous two seasons. He also has the highest K% on the slate outside of Coors (20.4%), which might make him worth the risk because, while the Brewers have the highest walk rate against LHP (11.9%), they also have a 23.5 K%. This could be another five walk, 10 strikeout game for Liriano. Players can consider this the Ted Cruz endorsement: if you must, he might not be terrible, but this could get ugly. Vote with your conscience. Jonathan Lucroy’s absence might give him an even further bump, but he wasn’t hitting LHP all that well anyway. Be on the lookout for hugs in the dugout as he’s been the subject of trade rumors lately. Liriano has also only allowed three HRs at home this season, so perhaps Ryan Braun (160 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the only attractive bat.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun