DFS Alerts

The Reds have sent out an update and we should be underway shortly.

Trayce Thompson $2.9K on FanDuel; nice value play in the outfield against Christian Friedrich

Trayce Thompson has a .383 wOBA and a 142 wRC+ vs. LHP this season and is batting 5th with Adrian Gonzalez still out of the lineup. Kike Hernandez is a minimum salaried player on FD and has some value as the leadoff hitter tonight. While the sample size is small on Friedrich for this season, he did allow .409 wOBA to RHB last year. The Dodgers are projected to score 4 runs and are only sending out one left-handed bat tonight.

The Reds expect a short delay before the start of the game against the Mariners. The game is still expected to be played and the Reds should have another update soon.

San Diego has a 25.9K% vs LHP, 46 wRC+ over the last week

Scott Kazmir has improved his K and SwStr rates above average over the last month and though he’s allowed 10 HRs this year, his 22.1 Hard% is a career low and he’s never really had a HR problem before with other numbers beginning to look more in line with a league average pitcher. He costs a bit more than that tonight (especially on DraftKings – $9.5K). The Padres have been awful at home (65 wRC+) and over the last week (46 wRC+) with a 91 wRC+ and 25.9 K% vs LHP making Kazmir a solid play on FanDuel with a good chance for the Win and still a reasonable option on DraftKings. There’s no interest in the ice cold San Diego bats.

Wright has allowed .410 wOBA to LHBs, but Angels have just one in top six

Mike Wright has an ERA over five with estimators just a bit better. He really gets pummeled by LHBs (.410 wOBA), but the Angels don’t have many of those besides Calhoun (113 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) leaving Mike Trout (175 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP) with the offensive load. He’s one of the top overall and most expensive bats tonight. Albert Pujols (116 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP) has been hot as well (180 wRC+, 41.7 Hard% last seven days).

The latest update expects a late start in Cincinnati and PPD is still possible. Check out the full weather report at https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb and follow Kevin Roth on twitter for up to the minute information.

Arrieta has 1.29 ERA, but league average walk rate, Giants just 15.9 K% vs RHP

Jake Arrieta has a 1.29 ERA half a run lower than last season, but with a similar K% and much higher 8.6 BB%. He gets a nice park upgrade in San Francisco tonight, but faces an offense with just a 15.9 K% and 11.2 BB% vs RHP. He’s still potentially the best pitcher on the board tonight (although Aaron Nola might give him competition against the Braves), but may just be a good value and not a great one for above $12K against an offense that can challenge plate discipline numbers tonight. One way Arrieta dominates is a 56.7 GB% with a great defense behind him that always seems to shift to the right spots, so we don’t want much, if any exposure to the San Francisco offense, but it’s difficult to completely abandon good middle of the order hitters like Panik (135 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), Posey (129 wRC+ vs RHP) and Belt (140 wRC+ vs RHP) for $3K or less on DraftKings, though they still probably shouldn’t be used unless you really have spot that needs some salary relief as the Giants have one of the lowest run projections tonight (2.9).

Jason Heyward the cheapest bat on DraftKings atop the Cubs lineup

Jake Peavy has allowed a .464 wOBA vs. LHB and sports a 7.43 ERA this season. Peavy also has 1.75 WHIP and 36/15 K/BB ratio in eight starts this season. Jason Heyward had a hit in nine straight games before cooling off last night and putting up a bagel in 5 at-bats. He has struggled so far this season and has a .281 wOBA and a 71 wRC+, making him too risky for cash games. While they are not the top options at their position, Dexter Fowler and Anthony Rizzo also deserve some consideration against Peavy. Fowler (.441 wOBA, 178 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) also has a .492 wOBA, 211 wRC+ on the road this season. Rizzo doesn’t have the greatest history against Peavy but has a .4388 wOBA and a 176 wRC+ vs. RHP this season.

Kevin Roth’s weather has been updated and it looks like it is likely that the game in Cincinnati is like to be PPD. Check out the full weather report at https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb

Blue Jays have been just average vs RHP (93 wRC+), while Duffey has been good (17.8 K-BB%)

Tyler Duffey misses bats at an acceptable rate (22.8 K%, 9.0 SwStr%) with a 5.0 BB% through four starts, similar to what he did in a small sample last year with a lower walk rate. With just a 26.4 Hard% and two HRs, nothing looks particularly concerning in his profile. In fact, he’s looked like at least a league average pitcher so far, if not better and Toronto has really disappointed offensively (93 wRC+ vs RHP). While Bautista and Encarnacion each have a wRC+ above 140 with an ISO above .270 vs RHP since last season with a 180 wRC+ over the last week, Josh Donaldson has a -56 wRC+ over the last week and Tyler Duffey has held RHBs to a .286 wOBA through 173 career PAs. He’s been more average vs LHBs (.314), making a less expensive Justin Smoak (118 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) slightly more interesting, but Tyler Duffey is a bit of a sleeper choice on the mound tonight, especially for just $6.4K on FanDuel.

Marcus Semien (146 wRC+ vs LHP) bats 2nd vs lefty Sabathia

C.C. Sabathia misses a couple of weeks with an injury and returns to what seems like a decent spot, but he has just a 16.8 K% this year and the A’s have three batters up top who are crushing the ball (all 195 wRC+ or more over the last week) and each hits LHP hard (.190+ ISO vs LHP since 2015). Marcus Semien (146 wRC+, .196 ISO vs LHP) moves up to 2nd and is a strong play at SS for less than $4K, while Danny Valencia (151 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Khris Davis (106 wRC+, .263 ISO vs LHP) are great values for a similar cost on DK, slightly more on FD.

Rockies expected to struggle against Gerrit Cole in pitcher-friendly PNC Park

Gerrit Cole (23.9 K%, 2.72 FIP at home in 2016) faces a Rockies team that has not played well against RHP (87wRC+) this season. With his salary under $9k on DraftKings, Cole is expected to have high ownership levels. Cole has a lower SwStr% (8.7) but that isn’t too concerning because Francisco Cervelli is one of the top pitch framers. Carlos Gonzalez has a .406 wOBA vs. RHP this season but has a .165 wOBA over his 14, making him a risky play in the outfield even though he is a cheap bat hitting cleanup. The Rockies are especially struggling over the last week with a 74 wRC+ vs. RHP.

Corbin has been hit hard, but Cardinals just a 91 wRC+ vs LHP

The Cardinals struggled against LHP last year as well with a lot of their RHBs hitting better against RHP. Patrick Corbin has been hit hard this year, allowing nine HRs already with a 25.0 Hard-Soft%, but getting out of Arizona should help with St Louis being a big upgrade. He’s allowed a .346 wOBA to RHBs since last season making Stephen Piscotty (175 wRC+, .232 ISO vs LHP) and Aledmys Diaz (152 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP) strong plays in the top half of the order. Matt Holliday (103 wRC+, .131 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has been a disappointment vs southpaws with Matt Carpenter’s 110 wRC+ being the next best mark. It’s not impossible to navigate this lineup past the cleanup spot for a LHP, perhaps leaving Corbin in play as a secondary pitcher in GPPs on DK for $6.7K, though I’m not sure I’d trust him enough for use on single pitcher sites.

Nationals have a 120 wRC+ vs LHP, Nicolino a -6.9 K-BB%

Justin Nicolino has an awful -6.9 K-BB%. He has struck out just four batters and half of them came in his first start. The Nationals are a much better offense vs LHP, where their RH bats thrive and their LH bats still do well enough. Washington is one of many offenses atop the board with a 4.5 run projection tonight and is a strong offense to stack tonight. Michael Taylor is still not a good hitter vs LHP (84 wRC+ career), but can be rostered in the leadoff spot at a low cost as he’s at least much less likely to strike out tonight. Ryan Zimmermann (168 wRC+, .336 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is the highest cost 1B on DK for a reason and probably worth it, while going for just $3.2K on FanDuel. Jayson Werth (150 wRC+ wRC+, .330 ISO vs LHP) and Bryce Harper (168 wRC+, .249 ISO vs LHP) make this a strong top five stack with Murphy being average (93 wRC+ vs LHP).

Colby Lewis has a 91.7 LOB%, has allowed a HR in seven of eight starts

Colby Lewis has a 3.12 ERA because he is stranding 91.7% of his base runners. While a 20.8 K-BB% over his last three starts is impressive, a 9.0 SwStr% is slightly below average over that span and he struck out ZERO in the start preceding that run. He’s allowed a HR in seven of eight starts and faces a team with a lot of power (15.6 HR/FB vs RHP) in a tough park tonight. Carlos Correa (133 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP) actually has a lower cost on DraftKings than FanDuel tonight, but is right around $4.5K on both sites. If we’re looking for bats with power to take advantage of HR tendencies, we’re left with five with an ISO above .200 vs RHP since last season, including Correa, batting 3rd through 8th with a min-priced Colin Moran sandwiched in between with only Correa above $4K. We normally don’t like to roster someone in the 8th slot, especially for $3.2K, but Catcher is a very weak position and Castro also brings a .218 wRC+ over the last week. Correa and Springer each have a 99 mph aEV since the beginning of last season vs Lewis in a combined 13 batted ball events. They won’t all homer, but with a 4.5 run projection tonight, this could easily be the start where it all falls apart for Lewis.