DFS Alerts

Indians with the top run projection tonight (4.59)

Clay Buchholz (5.90 ERA at home in 2016) is struggling to start the season and has been hemorrhaging runs to hitters from both sides of the plate. Carlos Santana (.402 wOBA, 160 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) hit 2 HRs last night and has 6 RBIs in his last two starts. His salary also fell $200 on DraftKings from last night and he is only $2.9k on FanDuel for the first time since late April, providing us some salary relief on a full slate. Francisco Lindor (.329 wOBA, 109 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) has played really well over the past week but his salary on DK has caught up to his production.

Choo leads off, Odor & Mazara dropped in Texas order

Shin-Soo Choo makes return to the Texas lineup in the leadoff spot, dropping Rougned Odor (-24 wRC+ last seven days) to the 5th spot. Ian Desmond and Prince Fielder bat 2nd and 3rd with Nomar Mazara dropping to 7th. That knocks some of value out of those young LH bats as this entire lineup has gone cold (71 wRC+ last seven days) in which Ian Desmond (159 wRC+) has been the only above average bat in the top eight lineup spots tonight, though he has just an 80 wRC+ vs RHP since last season and costs $4K tonight. The Rangers have five LHBs in the top seven and Lance McCullers allowed just a .266 wOBA to lefties last season. He was beaten up a bit by the Red Sox in his 2016 debut, but should be ready to go with fewer restrictions in this start. He was excellent at home with a 20.0 K-BB% last year, despite some old minor league control issues popping back up towards the end of the season. He’s an arm to consider for $8K tonight.

Aaron Nola has 4th best K-BB%, 9th highest GB% in baseball.

Aaron Nola at first looks over-priced for $11K on DraftKings. Then you see he’s facing the Braves. Looking at some very strong numbers, you see the 4th highest K-BB% (24.1), 9th highest GB% (56.0), and 2nd lowest Hard% (20.6) in baseball. That’s an elite pitcher against an offense with no power. The first move of the new manager in Atlanta is dropping Nick Markakis (.092 ISO vs RHP since 2015) down to cleanup and Gordon Beckham (85 wRC+, .140 ISO vs RHP since 2015) up to 2nd probably due to his 140 wRC+ through 66 PAs this year. Nola has gone seven innings in six of eight starts and should be a great value even at $11K on DraftKings, while competing with Jake Arrieta for the top overall pitcher regardless of cost.

Wisler has a 3.14 ERA, but .224 BABIP and 36.5 Hard%

Matt Wisler has a 3.14 ERA, but just a 16.5 K% with a .224 BABIP and 36.5 Hard%. In other words, it’s likely to blow up on him soon. In addition, he’s allowed LHBs a .373 wOBA in his career, making some of the Philadelphia bats atop the order look interesting. Odubel Herrera (125 wRC+ vs RHP) is their best LH hitter overall atop the order. Ryan Howard (105 wRC+, .287 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has been ice cold (-9 wRC+ last seven days), but could take advantage of all that hard contact allowed in a small park. Cesar Hernandez (81 wRC+ vs RHP) has not been a good hitter, but is a cheap 2nd baseman in a good batting order spot against a RHP who struggles with LHBs.

Jose Abreu, everyone behind bump up a spot in batting order

Robin Ventura may have finally figured out batting your worst hitter 2nd is a bad idea as tonight, Jose Abreu hits 2nd with the rest of the train moving up a spot and Tyler Saladino in the 9th slot. It’s not a big deal, but will probably get one batter an extra opportunity with the worst hitter one less. The two hot bats in the lineup (Frazier and Eaton) each cost $5K on DK tonight (over $4K on FanDuel) limiting their value, but Abreu (135 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since 2015) comes for $500 less ($4.1K on FD though), though that’s still not a great price. Dillon Gee has allowed LHBs a .415 wOBA (.275 vs RHBs) since last season, perhaps making Melky Cabrera (106 wRC+ vs RHP), the unlikely cleanup hitter, worth a look for $3.4K or less. Then again, considering the lack of strong LH bats and just 96 wRC+ vs RHP overall for the White Sox, maybe Dillon Gee will be worth his $4.2K punt price on DraftKings.

Santana (DL) and Braun remain OUT for Brewers in NY

Domingo Santana just hit the DL and Ryan Braun remains out for the Brewers traveling to Citi Field. Steven Matz missed his last start, but was proclaimed healthy and may be worth a look here against a weakened Milwaukee lineup that was below average to begin with. While Matz has a below average SwStr% (8.1), putting his 24.5 K% in question, he has generated 56.5% ground balls this season with a hard sinker and the Brewers have a 22.3 K% with an 87 wRC+ vs LHP. A $10K cost might be a bit higher than we would like and hold us to GPPs, but Matz is in a tremendous spot in a pitcher’s park tonight. Matz has actually been better vs RHBs (.264 wOBA) in his career, keeping this entire lineup low interest with the possible exception of leadoff man Jonathan Villar (131 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) as an inexpensive SS with a 150 wRC+ over the last week. The Brewers have the lowest run projection (2.9) on the board.

Wright out again, Cabrera and Walker move up in order vs Peralta

With David Wright’s balky back acting up, Asdrubal Cabrera (107 wRC+, .161 ISO vs RHP since 2015) becomes an interesting SS option for around the $3K mark batting 2nd against a pitcher who has allowed a .380 wOBA or better to batters from both sides since last season. The Mets had the 2nd highest run projection on the board this afternoon (4.57) and that shouldn’t chance too much with Wright out of the lineup. Another interesting move is Walker and Duda switching spots with the latter also struggling with back issues. Neil Walker (116 wRC+, 186 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is one of the stronger looking 2B options tonight for under $4K ($3.7K/$2.7K). The entire OF, rounding out the top of the order, all look strong tonight (140+ wRC+, .220+ ISO vs RHP since 2015) with Michael Conforto providing one of the top overall and potentially most valuable bats tonight for less than $4K, while Cespedes is the hottest bat in the order (174 wRC+ last seven days). Granderson hasn’t been getting the results, but has a 58.3 Hard% over the last week and two HRs in nine PAs against Peralta.

Red Sox have hammered RHP (128 wRC+), but Kluber has held RHBs to .237 wOBA

Corey Kluber has an ERA over four, but a look through his peripherals show a 63.2 LOB% to be the culprit with everything else seeming to be in line with the previous couple of seasons, including some velocity returning in May. The Red Sox have pummeled RHP (128 wRC+), but Corey Kluber has held RHBs to a .237 wOBA since 2015 and may be a sneaky GPP play at a reduced cost tonight. LHBs (.325 wOBA) could still cause some problems, keeping the hot bats of David Ortiz (168 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Travis Shaw (136 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP), and the surging Jackie Bradley Jr. (132 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP, 195 wRC+ last seven days) on the board in a matchup where many players may just shrug and avoid altogether. All three LH bats have homered off Kluber in their career.

Steven Souza leading off for Tampa Bay, Sanchez .367 wOBA vs RHBs since last season

It’s difficult to figure out who’s going to bat where in this lineup on any given day or even who’s going to play aside from Evan Longoria, but it’s Steven Souza’s turn to lead off tonight. He’s an average bat against RHP, but with some pop (.181 ISO) for under $4K. In fact, Anibal Sanchez has allowed RHBs a .367 wOBA since last season, which makes some sense for Steve Pearce (.201 ISO vs RHP since 2015) hitting cleanup. Tampa Bay has a league high 148 wRC+ over the last week without a single bat above $4K on either site tonight, making them a strong under the radar stacking opportunity tonight. Though he bats 6th, you might want to include Desmond Jennings (331 wOBA, 50.0 Hard% over the last week), while Evan Longoria (216 wRC+ last seven days) becomes a strong 3B option considering Sanchez’s performance against RHBs.

Kang sits as Marte moves up to cleanup against Butler

The Pirates have too many players for too few IF spots, so we’re probably going to see a lot of shuffling here as long as all are healthy and today Kang is the odd man out. Eddie Butler has an increased K rate (20.8%) through three starts with just a 3.9 BB% that will be challenged against the Pirates (9.1 BB% vs RHP). He has an unimpressive 4.93 xFIP on the road since last season though. While a lot of this is due to Colorado, Butler has allowed a .450 wOBA and 23.1 HR/FB to LHBs in his career, while the LH Pirate bats have been on fire. Gregory Polanco (118 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) has a 273 wRC+ over the last week, but is one of the highest priced bats on DK ($5K). John Jaso (130 wRC+ vs RHP) is much more affordable atop the lineup and a great value at 1B (159 wRC+ last seven days). RHBs have still hit Butler well (.344 wOBA), but with a 54.0 GB% in his career in a park that kills RH power, it’s difficult to find any great value in high cost OFers at the top. Pittsburgh does have a 4.56 run projection near the top of the board tonight though.

Seattle has five bats with at least a 118 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015 in lineup

Dan Straily has impressed with an above average K% and SwStr rate, but has an 11.5 BB% with a 3.05 ERA hiding behind a .227 BABIP and 84.8 LOB%. The Mariners are the type of offense with power that can make him pay for mistakes in this ballpark. Straily has allowed RHBs a higher wOBA by 42 points since last season (.323/.281), making Nelson Cruz (138 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2015) a top priced bat worth paying up for (217 wRC+, 42.9 Hard% last seven days, 95.5 mph aEV). He’s punished baseballs for a 167 wRC+ outside of Safeco since last season. Seattle has a high 4.54 run projection, where there aren’t any bats players should avoid as the top two (Smith and Marte) are the only two in the lineup below a 117 wRC+ over the last week with all except Iannetta and Martin well above average vs RHP since last year.

Roark has a -10 Hard-Soft%, but 15 of 46 Ks came in one outing

Tanner Roark has a -10 Hard-Soft%, but 15 of his 46 strikeouts came in a single start, throwing off his other numbers. He has a 9.5 BB% and a 5.9 HR/FB that might be a little unsustainable. The Marlins don’t have many hot bats at the moment, so his $7K cost on DraftKings seems like a wash, but he’s generally not a pitcher players should be willing to pay up for. Roark has allowed a .331 wOBA to LHBs since last year, so look at Derek Dietrich (136 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015) atop the lineup at an affordable price, while Christian Yelich (134 wRC+ vs RHP) has been the hottest batter in the lineup (156 wRC+ last seven days). Giancarlo Stanton (130 wRC+, .287 ISO vs RHP) has been cold (16 wRC+ over the last week), but can now be had for $4.2K or $3.7K on the two major sites.

Reds are 2nd worst offense (73 wRC+) vs RHP

Age related decline appears to be at Hisashi Iwakuma’s front door. His strikeouts are down and walks are up this year, though he has been able to generate a fair number of Ks against the more prone offenses. The Reds are might be one such offense (23.3 K% vs RHP) as only San Diego has a worse wRC+ (73) vs RHP. There’s some concern about a HR prone pitcher in Cincinnati, but he seems to have that more under control this year (9.3 HR/FB), though it’s a very small sample. This is probably no longer the pitcher you’re building around, but for just $6.9K on DraftKings, players can look towards Iwakuma to fill a secondary pitcher spot. The Reds have three dangerous bats against RHP and once bats 7th (Adam Duvall 126 wRC+, .326 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for nearly $4K, while the other are $3.8K (FD) to $4.5K (DK) where Votto (157 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Bruce (103 wRC+, .243 ISO vs RHP since 2015) appear average values, though Bruce has a 243 wRC+ over the last week.

Mark Teixeira out of the lineup Thursday; Brian McCann batting cleanup

With not a lot of top-end catching options available on today’s short slate, Brian McCann becomes one of the elite catchers available now that he is batting 4th. McCann (.388 wOBA, 148 wRC+ vs. RHP in 2016) has been hitting consistently well over the past 10 days but is actually discounted $200 on FanDuel for this game. Mark Teixeira is nursing a sore neck and will be out of the lineup on Thursday. Kendall Graveman has a 4.35 BB/9 and a 5.56 FIP vs. LHB this season and the Yankees are only sending out 2 RHB in this game. Graveman has a 1-5 record with a 5.84 ERA and 1.49 WHIP through seven starts.

Kevin has updated his forecast tonight and there are no areas of concern, but there is a strong wind in Oakland blowing a bit out to right that could favor power hitters with two HR prone pitchers on the mound tonight. Read his full report on our Weather Page linked below.