DFS Alerts

Cubs bats in a favorable spot against the very beatable Alfredo Simon

Alfredo Simon may have fooled some people with a low ERA a couple of years ago, but has a career HR/FB above 11% and a 29.4 career Hard%. He combines that with a 16.0 K%, which should leave the Cubs in a great spot tonight. The top three are above average vs RHP, but the real threats are Rizzo (147 wRC+, .259 ISO, 34.2 Hard% vs RHP since 2015) and Bryant (211 wRC+, .211 ISO, 37.4 Hard%). Miguel Montero is also an average bat against RHPs at a reasonable cost at Catcher.

Tigers face replacement Vogelsong

This was originally supposed to be Liriano, but the Tigers get to pick on Ryan Vogelsong instead. He had a resurgence a few years ago in San Francisco, but doesn’t bring much to the table any longer with an ERA and estimators over 4.50. Vogelsong was assaulted by LHBs for a .381 wOBA last season, but the Tigers lean almost entirely RH, where he’s fared a little better (.299 wOBA). They stack up the caliber of RH batters that should give him fits though. Miguel Cabrera has no problem with RHP (163 wRC+ since 2015). Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez have both hit RHP at a 136 wRC+ and well over .200 ISO since last year.

Stephen Strasburg scratched due to illness, Tanner Roark to start

Washington beat reporter Mark Zuckerman has just tweeted that Tanner Roark will be starting for Stephen Strasburg who has been scratched. This is a big blow to DFS players as there are few strong pitching choices available tonight. Action is likely to shift towards Carlos Carrasco, the next highest price tag, who was shaky in his first start. Other pivots include Drew Smyly and Yordano Ventura.

Strasburg (illness) scratched, Roark to start

Washington beat reporter Mark Zuckerman has just tweeted that Tanner Roark will be starting for Stephen Strasburg who has been scratched. This is a big blow to DFS players as there are few strong pitching choices available tonight. Action is likely to shift towards Carlos Carrasco, the next highest price tag, who was shaky in his first start. Other pivots include Drew Smyly and Yordano Ventura.

Pirates take aim at Greene

Shane Greene was terrible last season before being demoted with a sub-15 K% and ERA estimators well above four and a half. Although just 385 batters, he’s allowed a career .385 wOBA against LHBs, while being more average against RHBs (.311) in his career. The Pirates are projected for around 4.5 runs tonight, one of the highest totals outside of Colorado, which makes them a great stack for those looking to fade the mile high game. The Pirates only sport two LHBs today, but Jaso bats leadoff and has a 131 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since last year. McCutchen (141 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Marte (124 wRC+) handle same handed pitching well, while Cervelli has a 53.3 Hard% over the last week. The Pirates could provide a profitable alternate stacking opportunity tonight.

Taijuan Walker has upside but also high risk

Walker has a K/9 of over eight but he also allows over a .300 wOBA to both sides of the plate. His opponent has the lowest total on the board and the Mariners are the biggest favorites of the early games so Vegas likes him and that’s always something we need to factor in. If you think Walker will have a bad game then Mazara, Fielder, and Moreland are probably the bats on the Rangers side of things that will lead to that. A.J. Griffin takes the mound for the Rangers – he hadn’t pitched in the bigs since 2013 and allowed three runs in six innings in his first start this season. The top six of the order, particularly Cano, Smith, Seager, and Lind are excellent options from the Mariners lineup.

Oakland team to target on offense in early slate

The A’s have the highest team total by far (over 1/2 a run) of the three games on the early slate as they get to face Matt Shoemaker who was shelled for six runs in his first start of the season. Shoemaker allows a .316 wOBA to LH bats over his career and the A’s three through six hitters (Reddick-Vogt-Valencia-Coghlan) all have .wOBA’s of .350 or higher making them excellent options either by themselves or as part of a team stack. Erik Surkamp and his career .370+ wOBA allowed to both sides of the plate takes the mound for the A’s putting Mike Trout as a clear cut top option with anyone in the top five of their order (Escobar-Gentry-Pujols-Cron) all in play. Avoid the pitchers in this game.

Can Mets bats turn it around today?

The Mets came into this season with much hype and while their pitching has been as expected on most occasions, their offense has been a complete failure thus far. They’ll look to turn it around today against LHP Adam Conley when they face the Marlins this afternoon in one of three games on the early slate. We don’t have much to work with in regards to Conley as he has only pitched 68 innings in the major leagues and on the surface it appears he struggles more against same-handed batters with a .380 wOBA allowed but that’s in a very small sample size of 9 2/3 IP. He’s a bit better against RH bats (.309 wOBA) but we still have to think that the Mets should be able to do something against him. David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, and Wilmer Flores are the key three to target as they all hit LHP very well. Juan Lagares could also make for a very sneaky punt option hitting seventh. Logan Verrett takes the mound for the Mets and is probably the second option at SP behind Taijuan Walker in the early slate. He’s been extremely tough on RH bats thus far in his career (.248 wOBA) and holds his own against LH bats (.284 wOBA). Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich are worth a look if you’re just playing the three game slate and if you really want to stretch for value, Ichiro Suzuki batting second is about as cheap as they come but as a wise man once said… “you get what you pay for” so buyer beware.

Graveman low price and maybe worth a look on two pitcher sites

Kendall Graveman faced 22 White Sox batters in his first outing and 16 of them either struck out or hit a ground ball. He doesn’t have a lot of upside (15.3 K%), but generates a lot of ground balls when he’s on and is near the bottom of the board today. In a decent matchup at home, he might not have the upside of a similarly priced Sanchez, but probably won’t hurt you as bad as a secondary pitcher to pair with Syndergaard or Fernandez. He’s probably not worth looking at on single pitcher sites. The Angels run out a mostly right-handed lineup with Mike Trout being the most obvious play. Graveman actually has a small reverse platoon split with a 21.4 HR/FB vs RHBs in a small 273 batter sample.

Sardinas bats 2nd, Marte sits for Seattle against Holland

Derek Holland was once a highly regarded, hard throwing pitcher, but he has been neither healthy nor good enough over the last few years to justify his high price tag tonight with an ERA and estimators well over four last season. Half of the batted balls against him were hit hard in his first start against the Angels. He upgrades to one of the top pitcher’s parks in baseball tonight, but Seattle excels at hitting the ball hard with a team 30.0% hit hard rate over the last week and a 21.4 HR/FB in 130 PAs vs LHP this season. Light hitting utility infielder Luis Sardinas will play SS and bat 2nd in place of Ketel Marte tonight, but he can be a sneaky, cheap pickup if you believe the offense around him is going to be active tonight. Nelson Cruz and Franklin Gutierrez have both destroyed LHP for better than a 165 wRC+ and .275 ISO since last season. Nori Aoki has a slight reverse split. Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager are both above average hitters against LHP when healthy and Chris Iannetta has a 140 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. The Mariners could be an under the radar stacking option tonight.

For really the first time this season, weather is expected to play little part in the affairs on the diamond tonight. Colorado might see some activity, but there is no interest in the pitchers in that game. Read Kevin’s full updated forecast on our Weather Page linked below.

Miley an under the radar option against Texas

Wade Miley was a bit of a disaster in Boston last year, but with peripherals a little better than his actual ERA. Now he moves to one of the best parks in baseball and generated 13 swings and misses and just three hard hit balls against this same lineup in Texas last week despite the five runs charged to him. Texas usually prefers to balance their lineup no matter who is pitching rather than platoon, but Mitch Moreland takes a seat tonight, though three of the top six are still left-handed. Miley has a .297 wOBA career against LHBs and is a usable secondary pitcher tonight with perhaps some not so obvious upside. For the Rangers, Beltre is the only significantly above average bat (142 wRC+, 2.27 ISO) vs LHP since the start of last season. Texas has one of the lower projected run lines of the night (3.47 runs).

Liriano scratched from start Wednesday (tomorrow)

Francisco Liriano is dealing with some hamstring discomfort and won’t pitch tomorrow according to a tweet from Rotoworld. The very hittable Ryan Vogelsong will start in his place at Detroit.

Fiers has little upside vs Royals

There generally needs to be a really good reason to roster pitchers against the Royals, who rarely swing and miss, and Mike Fiers is not it. He allowed two HRs with a 55 Hard% in his first start and struggled with hard contact at times last season (37.0 Hard% before the All Star break). For the Royals, Mike Moustakas (120 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) has become a more accomplished hitter in the 2 hole and while you can only choose one, Hosmer and Morales have an equally dangerous 140 wRC+ vs RHP since last year out of the 3 and 4 spots.

A's predictably stack RHBs against Santiago, Phegley bats 2nd

Hector Santiago isn’t a good pitcher with ERA estimators well above four for his career and an actual ERA above five after the All Star break last year. He does, however, miss bats at around a league average rate (the problem is a 10.3 BB% and 30.5 Hard% career when he’s not missing bats). All of that said, he is in a decent spot against a weak offense at a reasonable cost across the industry tonight. The A’s like to play the platoon game perhaps more than any other team and stack up with an almost entirely RH lineup, which thus far has led to a middling 90 wRC+ and 25.3 K% against lefties (remember they faced a lot of good ones against the White Sox to open the season). This might be a rare night where Santiago is worth a look. On the other side, Josh Phegley (127 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) is an interesting name in the 2nd hole and perhaps even more interesting with Posey out tonight. Danny Valencia has a 125 wRC+ vs lefties since last year.