DFS Alerts
Buster Posey out of the lineup tonight in Colorado
This doesn’t change the fact that you’re probably still going to stack the Giants in Colorado, but you just might be able to afford a better pitcher. His replacement, Trevor Brown (133 wRC+ vs RHP) is even a reasonable punt play despite batting 8th. Duffy and Crawford move up a spot with Pence and Belt in the coveted 3rd and 4th spots. Span, Panik, Pence, and Belt all have a wRC+ between 130-141 vs RHP since last season. The Giants have, by far, the top projected run line tonight (5.79) and will be the most popular stack, especially since they’re now more affordable.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Hunter Pence, Denard Span
Houston has 26.4K%, 37.7 Hard%, 24.0 HR/FB vs RHP
The Astros may not make contact often, but when they do, they crush the ball. They are the most interesting team in the world. Kris Medlen was very mediocre in his return from Tommy John last year with an ERA and estimators just above four. You might consider taking a chance here with a higher upside pitcher, but Medlen just doesn’t miss enough bats to make him worth the risk tonight (16.3 K% last year). He’s not a bad pitcher though and perhaps not the best pitcher to attack tonight, but Houston is projected for 4.28 runs tonight. Colby Rasmus is red hot (243 wRC+ last 7 days) with the platoon advantage in the leadoff spot. Carlos Correa (137 wRC+ vs RHP) is a force against RHP and Medlen does not have a career platoon split (around .300 wOBA vs both sides), so a heavily right-handed Houston lineup tonight should not be discounted at the top. Preston Tucker sits with Evan Gattis returning.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Kris Medlen, Carlos Correa Matt Moore showed positive signs in his first start
You might not remember, but once upon a time, Matt Moore was a big time prospect, ranked alongside names like Trout and Harper. He no longer throws 95 mph, but was up a tick to 93 mph in his last start and had an above average 9.9 SwStr in limited action last season, despite a below average strikeout rate. He continued to build on that with an 11 swinging strikes and a formidable outing against the Blue Jays. His DraftKings price tag may be a bit too high for comfort, but he is definitely someone to keep an eye and perhaps avoid using bats against tonight. The one downfall could be his control against a patient Cleveland offense. Mike Napoli, batting cleanup, cleans up against LHP (156 wRC+, .289 ISO against southpaws since 2015).
Other tagged players: Mike Napoli Sanchez looks to build on strong first start against Yankees
Aaron Sanchez was able to keep his secondary stuff down and showed signs of being the prospect he was touted as in his first start. He struck out eight Rays and generated 10 ground ball, while averaging over 95 mph on his fastball. Perhaps most importantly, he didn’t walk a single batter. Although he costs little today, we really want to see him do it again and against a more disciplined team in a tougher environment. If you’re playing many lineups, a lineup or two as a secondary pitcher isn’t the worst shot you could take tonight, but he still has a lot to prove before being trusted more than that. The one thing he has done though, is lower our offensive expectations against him. This doesn’t mean you can’t use NY Yankee batters tonight, but they have just a modest 3.74 run expectation per our Vegas odds. Mark Teixeira (159 wRC+, .343 ISO vs RHP since last season) would be the top choice, while Brian McCann (111 wRC+ vs RHP, .216 ISO) might play at a weak position.
Other tagged players: Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann Tanaka may not be worth cost in Toronto
There are a few teams you should be reluctant to roster pitchers against in daily fantasy baseball. Two of them are whoever is playing in Colorado. Another is Kansas City because they don’t strike out. The Blue Jays don’t strike out much and often hit like they’re playing in Colorado. Facing a good (and expensive) pitcher tonight though, there’s not much interest towards anyone in this matchup. Tanaka does have a weakness for the HR though (14+ HR/FB to batters from each side in his career). It’s going to be tough picking out which Toronto batter or two is most likely to hit those HRs though and it may not be the best idea to have a lot of exposure to Toronto stacks tonight. We should probably be looking elsewhere for most of our DFS needs tonight.
Red Sox look to tee off on Wright
Mike Wright has a has a 6.24 ERA in 44.2 career innings with estimators to match. Batters from either side have at least a .360 wOBA against him. David Ortiz (163 wRC+, .327 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the obvious plays, but feel free to stack up your Red Sox here. However, no other Red Sox batter has a wRC+ above 115 vs RHP since last season.
Nationals face Chacin in first Atlanta start
Jhoulys Chacin has bounced around a bit since being released from Colorado last season, but hasn’t shown much promise since his rookie season in 2010. His numbers are difficult to take at face value, spending almost his entire career in Colorado, but he’s not someone you should avoid using good hitters against. The Nationals run out the familiar lineup, aside from Wilson Ramos tonight. Chacin has handled RHBs alright, but has a .337 wOBA allowed to LHBs in his career. The obvious candidates are Harper (209 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) and Murphy (126 wRC+ vs RHP, .220 ISO last 7 days).
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Jhoulys Chacin Rockies face off with HR prone Jeff Samardzija in Coors
It’s going to be hard to find a Rockies bat you don’t want to roster tonight. Jeff Samardzija had notable HR issues last season (29 total HRs allowed), and those won’t be cleared up by the thin Colorado air. Carlos Gonzalez is right up there with Bryce Harper as the top overall play on the board, as he routinely crushes RH pitching at home and is in a great spot to add to his HR total tonight. Gonzalez owned a wOBA and ISO over .400 when hitting at home against RHs last season, and Samardzija’s 21 HRs allowed to LHs only furthers his appeal. Charlie Blackmon is also in a nice spot to break out after a slow start, while Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra and Trevor Story are all playable in any format.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra, Trevor Story
Orioles bats look to attack Buchholz
Clay Buchholz did not have a good start to the 2016 season. His velocity was down a mile per hour and perhaps it was just the weather, this is a guy who has accumulated a lot of DL days in recent seasons, so it may be best to wait and watch. Perhaps he’s not our top pitcher to target tonight, but the Orioles do have some bats that could do damage. Chris Davis has a 164 wRC+, .358 ISO vs RHP since last season. Manny Machado his RHP well too (152 wRC+, .243 ISO) and also has a 57.1 Hard% over the last week. Another interesting stat is Ryan Flaherty owning a 99.7 exit velocity against Buchholz in 19 PAs if you’re looking for a middle infield punt option.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Ryan Flaherty, Clay Buchholz Charlie Morton worth targeting with cheap SD lefties
Morton was dreadful in his first start of the season and his numbers against left-handers in 2015 make him an arm worth picking on in an effort to save cap for the more expensive bats in Colorado and Boston. He allowed a .384 wOBA to LH bats last season and finished with a 4.91 FIP, not to mention he’s not particularly good at missing bats. While his strikeout numbers were better against lefties, his walk rate was higher and there was a 20.1% difference in his hard and soft contact rates (37.2% hard, 17.2% soft). Brett Wallace may be the most interesting GPP target here, as he’s hitting clean-up in a hitter friendly park and has actually showed nice power numbers in his limited playing time over the last few seasons. Wallace owned a .404 wOBA and .261 ISO against RHP in 2015 and considering his near minimum price tag, he’s worth a gamble. Cory Spangenberg and Jon Jay are options on sites that still don’t have them priced up due to their recent series in Coors, and Matt Kemp remains a nice upside option in this stadium.
Other tagged players: Cory Spangenberg, Jon Jay, Matt Kemp Phillies have struck out in 40.5% of 37 PAs vs LHP so far, Howard bats 4th
It’s an incredibly small sample size, but the Phillies have been a bad team vs LHP for a long time. Robbie Erlin has not retained his strikeout ability in the high minors or majors, but does exhibit excellent control. He perhaps doesn’t offer enough upside to really put himself in consideration tonight, but we also don’t really want to target many of the Phillies with Ryan Howard batting cleanup against a LHP. Maikel Franco has a 137 wRC+, .270 ISO vs LHP in his young career, making him a nice upside option at home. Cesar Hernandez is also a viable punt play hitting atop the order.
Other tagged players: Ryan Howard, Robbie Erlin, Cesar Hernandez Kluber looks to rebound from rough first outing
Corey Kluber wasn’t sharp in his first start at home against the Red Sox, but a look under the hood doesn’t give us much cause for concern (11.5 SwStr%, 20.0 Hard%). Of course, he’s started slow before. We’re not ready to jump off the band wagon just yet, although his cost has inexplicably risen considerably since that first start. That’s what might make him an interesting contrarian play in a good park tonight, while others are on that game in NY. The most prudent course of action might be to tread softly on either side in this game. If you were to look Tampa Bay’s way though, one interesting player might be Corey Dickerson (150 wRC+ vs RHP since last season, 303 wRC+ last 7 days).
Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson Jose Fernandez faces struggling offense in Tuesday's top matchup
Jose Fernandez struck out 13 Tigers (17 swinging strikes) in his season debut. The other 10 managed to somehow put up five runs despite only two balls being classified as hard hit. The Mets offense has just a 46 wRC+ vs RHP so far and over the last week total. Fernandez might only be the 2nd highest owned pitcher on DraftKings due to a cost substantially higher than his opponent, but is capable of putting up just as dominant of a performance. There’s no interest in Mets bats, projected for just 3.27 runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Gio Gonzalez potential secondary pitcher tonight
Gio Gonzalez ended the year strong, with a 29.8 K% over the last month of 2015 and generated more ground balls (53.8%) than he ever has in his career. He still had control issues, but if he can combine those two things, that would be one heck of a pitcher. The one thing you can count on is him keeping the ball in the park (6.6 HR/FB since 2014). The Braves were atrocious vs LHP last year and have started this year out much the same with a league low 13 wRC+ over their first 54 plate appearances. Gio is a very acceptable secondary pitcher on two pitcher sites and even a contrarian pivot option elsewhere. For Atlanta, the one thing that stands out is Adonis Garcia and his 154 wRC+, 2.95 ISO vs LHP.
Other tagged players: Adonis Garcia Syndergaard averaged 100 mph perceived velocity on sinker
In his first start, Noah Syndergaard averaged 100.2 mph perceived velocity on his sinker according to Statcast info from MLB.com. In addition, he was throwing a 95 mph slider. Sixteen swinging strikes is doubly impressive when it’s against the Royals. He faces off against the Marlins and Jose Fernandez in the prime matchup of the night and as only 3rd most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, figures to be the most owned. He has been known to be prone to the HR ball in the past, but Miami is projected by far for the lowest run total of the night (2.73 runs). Other than taking a high risk shot with either of the Miami big power bats (Stanton or Bour) in a one off GPP lineup, there’s no interest in the Miami bats.
As reported by: Statcast Other tagged players: Jose Fernandez, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour