DFS Alerts
Houston has 3rd highest K% (27.4) in majors
The Houston Astros have a ton of power (20.6 HR/FB this year), but also the 3rd highest K% (27.4) in the majors this year. That makes Yordano Ventura perhaps the most interesting pitcher on a light board tonight. Ventura increased his K% by five points and decreased his hard contact rate by almost the same post All Star break last year. He continued to generate swings and misses (10.2 SwStr%) in his first start, but also walked six. This seems like the type of night you might want to gamble on his upside with a wide range of potential outcomes. He could strike out 10, allow three HRs or both. The top four bats in the Houston order or all average or slightly above vs RHP except Correa, who is much better (138 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP). Further down, Tucker (129 wRC+ vs RHP since last year) and Valbuena (119 wRC+) many might know. Evan Gattis will sit tonight. All the way through, it’s a high risk high reward lineup as they face a similar type pitcher tonight.
Other tagged players: Preston Tucker, Luis Valbuena
Right handed Yankees hitters are in play tonight against J.A. Happ
J.A. Happ posted an impressive K/9 of 10.51 last year against lefties, but against righties his K/9 decreased to 7.01. An even more alarming split shows his K% against lefties (27.6%) compared to righties (18.8%). Coupled with the hitter friendly environment of the Rogers Centre, Aaron Hicks (career .351 wOBA & 123 wRC+ against lefties) and Alex Rodriguez (.269 IS0, .389 wOBA, and 148 wRC+ against lefties in 2015) serve as under-the-radar options in all formats.
Other tagged players: Aaron Hicks, J.A. Happ
Wong sits against RHP Anderson in St Louis
Chase Anderson struck out five in five shutout innings against Houston, but lasted just 18 batters for whatever reason and had an average 9.4 SwStr% against a team that swings and misses often. The Cardinals don’t strike out as much and Anderson had just a 17.3 K% last season. Though it’s a pitcher’s park it’s really not an enviable spot for a marginal pitcher against the Cardinals for $7.5K on DraftKings. There’s not a ton of interest on either side of this matchup with several pitchers to pick on tonight, though Carpenter excels against RHP (155 wRC+, .251 ISO, 40.7 Hard% vs righties since last season). Hazelbaker in the two spot has been hot (274 wRC+), while the three through five hitters (Holliday, Piscotty, and Grichuk) are all at least a 120 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015. A St Louis stack might not be out of the question.
Other tagged players: Matt Holliday, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Stephen Piscotty, Chase Anderson, Randal Grichuk Peavy takes the mound in Colorado with career 0.99 GB/FB
Jake Peavy has never had a high HR/FB, but allows so many fly balls that he often ends up allowing around 20. That’s fine for San Francisco, but could be very dangerous in Colorado. As usual, feel comfortable stacking your Rockies against a mediocre pitcher in Colorado all the way through. Note that Ben Paulsen is in for Mark Reynolds at 1B. Gonzalez (153 wRC vs RHP since last season) and Arenado (130 wRC+ vs RHP) have an ISO above .300 vs RHP since last year.
Other tagged players: Jake Peavy, Nolan Arenado Leake was awful in Cardinal debut, but Brewers have 27.3 K% in 2016
Mike Leake had a 50% line drive rate and missed just four bats in his Cardinal debut. He’s always been a pitcher with a HR problem who never really struck out much more than 15% of opposing batters. However, a new home in a great pitcher’s park in St Louis could really benefit him as it will likely hurt a Milwaukee lineup with a 27.3 K% so far this season, but does have some power. Normally Leake wouldn’t be a consideration, especially after his initial outing this year, but he’s in a very good spot against a weak offense with slim pickings on the mound elsewhere. The Brewers are projected for just under 3.5 runs on our Vegas Odds page
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Baltimore bats in good position to stay hot tonight against Joe Kelly
In his first start this year against Toronto, Kelly was rocked for 7 ER and 5 H in 3 IP. His match up doesn’t get any easier tonight as he is facing the hot hitting Orioles squad. Last year, Kelly gave up a hard hit percentage of 35%, which was the 2nd highest of any SP. To put it bluntly, Kelly gets hit HARD. The O’s are off to a scorching start this season, sporting the league’s top rated statistics against RHP’s (.395 wOBA, .247 ISO, and 159 wRC+). While Machado and Davis are the preferred targets, all hitters 1-6 can be highly considered.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Joe Kelly Zimmerman and Rendon OUT for Washington
Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon will sit in favor of Stephen Drew and Clint Robinson for the Nationals tonight. Drew will bat 2nd with Daniel Murphy moving into the cleanup spot. Matt Wisler has a lot of potential and missed 10 bats in his first starts, but is still someone it’s difficult to recommend a work in progress at the major league level as he struggled to miss bats last year has allowed a bit more hard contact than you’d like. LHBs in particular have been a real problem for him (.422 wOBA in 250 PA). This makes Harper (207 wRC+, .358 ISO, 39.9 Hard% vs RHP since last season) and Murphy (127 wRC+, .201 ISO, 32.9 Hard% vs RHP) in good spots tonight and also possibly Stephen Drew as a middle infield punt option by association, batting just ahead of them. Drew is no longer even close to even an average hitter though.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Matt Wisler, Stephen Drew Blue Jays power bats present nice contrarian targets against HR prone Pineda
Michael Pineda allowed 21 HRs last season and while 16 of those came in Yankee Stadium, he’ll do battle in another hitter friendly environment north of the border this evening. Vegas clearly expects some runs to be scored here as the Jays have a team total right around 4.5, so while Pineda isn’t normally an arm we pick on, this is an opportunity to get the Jays power bats at very low ownership percentages. Jose Bautista (.412 wOBA, .328 ISO at home against RHs in 2015) blasted 35 HRs against RH pitching last season, 20 of which came in Rogers Centre, and he’s actually homered off Pineda twice in 19 ABs. As for Edwin Encarnacion, he homered 33 times against RH pitching in 2015 and finished the year with a .288 ISO in Toronto. Josh Donaldson (.433 wOBA, .304 ISO at home against RHs) is another viable target here – he launched 32 HRs against RH pitching, 19 of which came at home.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, Michael Pineda
Phillies have three above average bats vs RHP at top of lineup
Colin Rea had just a 5.3 SwStr% in 31.2 innings last year and doesn’t seem to be much of a prospect as a 26 year old rookie, but does throw 93 mph and may be someone to watch because the Phillies are atrocious. However, it’s difficult to consider paying $7K for him on DraftKings even tonight after walking five of 25 batters faced so far this year. There are some at least average bats at the top of this batting order too. Ryan Howard has a 115 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since last season and could run into one. Maikel Franco has hit RHP for a 130 wRC, .198 ISO since his call up. Odubel Herrera (111 wRC+ vs RHP) has been a surprise as well. You probably don’t want to have to much exposure to this lineup though.
Other tagged players: Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera Padres have 68wRC+, 24.6 K% vs RHP so far
Jerad Eickhoff pitched well as a rookie for the Phillies last year, but allowed a lot of hard contact (35.8%) with an underwhelming fastball (90 mph), profiling as a mid-rotation arm. That might be enough tonight as he takes on a San Diego team with just a 68 wRC+ and 24.6 K% vs RHP so far this year. Wil Myers returns to the lineup, but has really been just an average bat vs RHP so far in his career as none of the Padres are really better than that though. This is not the lineup you want to turn to for your offensive needs tonight, which, by default, kind of makes Eickhoff a usable secondary pitching option.
Other tagged players: Wil Myers Boston bats make for viable GPP targets against Ubaldo Jimenez
Jimenez is a very volatile starter that can blow you away at times, but he is certainly capable of his share of implosions, most of which came when he was pitching on the road last year (which he’ll be doing tonight). His FIP was over a full run higher when on the road (3.28 at home, 4.58 on the road) and his HR/9 rate skyrocketed (0.67 at home, 1.22 on the road), making him one of the sneakier arms to target with opposing bats. The left-handed bats on the Boston side are the best targets against Jimenez, but outside of David Ortiz there isn’t much to be confident about. Travis Shaw has been getting pulled in the mid-to-late innings and Brock Holt will surely start to slow down. Betts, Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez are all viable GPP targets from the right side. For the BvP believers out there, David Ortiz is just 2-19 against Jimenez (one of the hits went for a HR) while Hanley Ramirez owns a 3-14 mark (no XBHs, but he has racked up 3 SBs).
Other tagged players: Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia Smyly allowed three HRs, but just five hard hit balls in first start
Drew Smyly may have as much upside as anyone on the board tonight. He struggled with three HRs allowed in his first start, but only five hard hit balls in total against the dominant Toronto lineup. Perhaps more importantly, his velocity was in line and he got 10 swinging strikes. He should be ready to return to form tonight against Cleveland at home. The Tribe does have a few bats that handle LHP well, including Lindor (157 wRC+ since last season vs LHP) and Napoli (155 wRC+), but this is a quality and often under-rated lefty. With good starting pitching being scarce tonight, Smyly should be near the top of your board.
Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Francisco Lindor Carrasco struggled with velocity, command in first start
Carlos Carrasco surrendered three HRs to Boston in his first start and was down about a mile per hour, but it’s way too early to worry and with Strasburg now out, we may not have that luxory as the top pitcher left on the board. He had a 29.6 K% last year and still missed 10 bats in his first start. He now faces a team with a little more swing and miss in a better ballpark, though the Rays may still have some under the radar threats. Brandon Guyer gets the start today in place of Souza, but the Rays otherwise run the same lineup as usual over the first week plus. Corey Dickerson is the top threat (149 wRC+ vs RHP) if you’re looking for an affordable bat that should not be too high owned. Otherwise, Carrasco may have the highest upside on the board tonight, but is not without risk.
Lackey (82.6 LOB%) beat his ERA estimators by a run last year
At this point in his career, we’re pretty sure who John Lackey is, which is why it was a surprise when he showed up with an ERA below three last year. A deeper look under the hood told a familiar story though and that is that he stranded a career high 82.6% of runners. That is expected to revert to form and turn him back into a league average pitcher, but there’s nothing wrong with that, especially tonight. He’s a reasonable choice on the mound tonight, though perhaps accurately priced with limited upside. Joey Votto has a 165 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP since last season, but there are few if any other real threats against RHP and much better pitchers to pick on tonight.
Other tagged players: Joey Votto Roark allowed .369 wOBA to LHBs last year
The Braves look to be catching a break tonight, facing Tanner Roark instead of Strasburg. Although the Braves are never going to be our top choice for offense, this puts a couple of their bats back on the board, specifically Freddie Freeman, who may now be a bit under-priced, though still not cheap. He has a 147 wRC+, .232 ISO, and 38.9 Hard% vs RHP since last season. Nick Markakis won’t hit for power, but is next best with a 123 wRC+ vs RHP, while A.J. Pierzynski is at 113 since last season.
Other tagged players: Tanner Roark, Nick Markakis, A.J. Pierzynski