DFS Alerts

Kevin Roth weather news expected around noon. Weather analysis coming soon.

David Ortiz Not in Red Sox Lineup on Saturday

David Ortiz is not in the Red Sox lineup, so Travis Shaw will enjoy cleanup duties against R.A. Dickey on Saturday.

Jaso Leading Off for the Pirates

Jaso is leading off and facing Raisel Iglesias today. Jaso had an above average ISO of 0.180 in 2015 and serves as a cheap source of power with a high floor against a pitcher who walked 3.12 lefties per 9 innings last year.

Kinsler is in a Good Position to Stay Hot

Sabathia sported a 1.72 HR/9 and a xFIP of 4.31 versus right-handed batters in 2015. He is facing a team full of capable right hand bats, including Ian Kinsler who owns a career 0.381 against left-handed pitchers to go along with his 0.379 average career wOBA in March/April. This is higher than his next best month of June where he has a wOBA of 0.358. For whatever reason, the guy usually gets off to a blistering start. Kinsler is a fantastic cash game play.

Panda in Red Sox Lineup

Dickey for his career has a FIP of 4.48 in March/April, compared to an average FIP of 4.16 May and beyond. Sandoval will be facing Dickey today and enjoyed a 4.44 wKN/C in 2015. This stat tells us the total runs above average per 100 pitches that a hitter contributed against knuckleballs last year. The fact that Sandoval was beaten out by Shaw in spring training will help this contrarian pick stay under the radar. Brock Holt would have been a tad bit more sneaky if it was not for his grand slam yesterday, but his 1.27 wKN/C is still a reason to use the scrappy Red Sox second baseman today.

Cubs highest projected Vegas run total tonight (4.82 runs)

The Cubs have the highest projected run total tonight (4.82 runs) against Robbie Ray in an Arizona park that’s been full of offense this week. Ray can miss a few bats, but had a sub-five HR fly ball through his first two months catch up with him in a big way towards the end of the season. The Cubs generate a lot of power and have the talent to hit LHP well led by Rizzo (145 wRC+ vs LHP last year) and Fowler (139 wRC+). Jason Heyward has struggled against LHP throughout his career, but otherwise, you can’t really go wrong through the top six or seven in this lineup. The Cubs should be one of the top stacks of the night. The only question is which players to leave out.

Shoemaker looks to bounce back in 2016

Matt Shoemaker retained a 20% strikeout rate last year, but was plagued by the same issue that hurt him throughout his minor league career: a 14.0 HR/FB (up from 9.4 in 2014). The Rangers run out a balanced lineup with some left-handed pop in the middle, however, Shoemaker only allowed five of his 24 HRs to LHBs at home. He has a chance at a reasonable price in a pitcher’s park if you believe the HR rate will regress. The Texas bats aren’t off limits though. Choo, Fielder, and the under-rated Moreland each had a wRC+ between 132-148 last season.

Ross Stripling makes MLB debut against Giants as Posey sits

Debuting pitchers sometimes get that unknown bonus in their first game and Ross Stripling has had at least a 20.0 K% at each stop in the minors, but hasn’t pitched above AA and projects as a back of the rotation pitcher who has already had a Tommy John surgery and has risky mechanics. It’s tough to know what to do with these pitchers initially, but if you believe in that first time through the league bonus he’s the last pitcher on the board on DraftKings. Perhaps the biggest thing in his favor is Buster Posey on the bench. That said, the top four Giants (Span, Panik, Pence, and Belt) are all above average hitters against RHP, while Brandon Crawford has emerged as a quality bat at SS (123 wRC+ vs RHP last year).

Kyle Schwarber out for the year with torn ACL, LCL

Schwarber will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL and LCL. It’s a brutal blow for the Cubs who have performed much better as an offense with Schwarber in the lineup – since his call-up last season, they’ve averaged 5.3 runs per game with him in the lineup compared to 3.3 runs without him. Jorge Soler will likely become a regular outfielder going forward, while Matt Szczur may also start to see more playing time.

Crawford sits, Van Slyke in LF for Dodgers vs Cain

Matt Cain used to have a talent for home run suppression, but hasn’t been healthy and productive in a couple of years and the Dodgers have come out the game with hot bats. Weather permitting, Corey Seager has smoked RHP so far (168 wRC+) and is a top play at his position. Chase Utley has started out hot and provides value in the leadoff spot at second base. Justin Turner has a reverse platoon split and hits RHP better than LHP for his career (153 wRC+ last year) and Adrian Gonzalez is always a quality bat vs RHP in the middle. Park effects in one of the pitching friendliest stadiums in baseball could dampen the offensive effects, but several Dodgers are at least worth a look tonight. Carl Crawford is a key omission with Scott Van Slyke getting the rare start against a RHP.

Kevin has updated his weather forecast for tonight. PIT@CIN carries some risk, but looks like it should play. It’s riskier for Liriano if there’s a delay than the Pittsburgh offense. There may also be disruptions in the TEX@LAA and LAD@SFG games. Read Kevin’s full update in the forum linked below.

A.J. Griffin has not pitched in the majors since 2013

A.J. Griffin has not pitched in the majors since 2013 (injury) when he used a 90 mph to beat his ERA estimators for a while with the A’s. Daniel Nava is a great punt play in the two spot with a 119 career wRC+ vs RHP ahead of Mike Trout, who has one of the top overall projections any night against a mediocre pitcher. Pujols (120 wRC+/.230 ISO) and Calhoun (113 wRC+/.174 ISO) right behind him in the order were above average vs RHP as well. C.J. Cron will sit against the righty in favor of import Ji-Man Choi

Taijuan Walker cut BB% in half, but nearly doubled HR rate in 2015

Taijuan Walker is an incredibly talented right hander. After a brief debut with an 11.3 BB% in 2014, he cut that rate in half (5.7%) last year. However, he allowed a 13.0 HR/FB that was even higher (15.9) in Seattle. The A’s love to platoon and lean heavily left-handed tonight, but Walker hasn’t had much of a platoon split tonight. He has the stop to dominate if he can hold his walk rate and diminish the HR rate. The young right-hander is worth a look tonight in a decent spot at home. The A’s had one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball against RHP last year, but this is a different group with a few more free swingers (Khris Davis).

Nelson Cruz (202 wRC+ last year) crushes LHP

Erik Surkamp is a 28 year old journeyman who hasn’t started a major league game since 2013 with just 57 total innings over four seasons. He has a career ERA with estimators well over five. And he is lefty handed. Nelson Cruz destroys lefies (202 wRC+ last year). The other interesting thing is that the Seattle lefties hit LHP well too. Kyle Seager had a 131 wRC+ vs LHP last year. Robinson Cano has a career 109 wRC+ vs lefties. Leadoff man Nori Aoki has a reverse career split (116 wRC+ vs LHP). Though the park plays pitcher friendly, the Mariners have one of the higher projected run totals tonight (4.56). You could even venture further down the lineup for value plays: Chris Iannetta (134 wRC+ career vs LHP) and Franklin Gutierrez (168 wRC+/.298 ISO vs LHP last year). Feel comfortable liberally using the Mariners lineup tonight.

Rasmus and Tucker sit for Houston against RHer Anderson

Colby Rasmus and Preston Tucker are not in tonight’s lineup against Chase Anderson, who has a slight reverse split (.341 vs RHB/.320 vs LHB) in his short career. The Astros still supply plenty of power in a hitter’s park. Anderson has a decent change-up, but a mediocre fastball and is a bit HR prone with just a 17.3 K% last year. Correa is the prime target (136 wRC+/.202 ISO vs RHP career) and Valbuena the value pick (.121 wRC+/.234 ISO vs RHP last year), but Altuve and Springer are fine picks atop the lineup as well.