DFS Alerts
Cardinals left-handed bats in a great spot vs. Matt Wisler
Wisler allowed a .419 wOBA to left-handed bats last season, including 10 HRs in just 48.2 IP. He ended up with a dreadful 6.85FIP/6.43xFIP against lefties and while we should expect him to improve this season (he’s still just 23 years old), we’ll want to pick on him with opposing lefties. Matt Carpenter tops the list on the St. Louis side tonight due to his .394 wOBA and .249 ISO against RHP last season to go along with an elite 40.2 hard-hit rate (compared to just an 8.1% soft contact rate). Matt Adams is also squarely in play out of the clean-up spot, as is Kolten Wong who slots into the seven spot.
Other tagged players: Matt Adams, Kolten Wong
Archer top pitcher tonight, Hardy joins Jones on bench
It really didn’t matter who the Orioles lined up against him, Chris Archer was always going to be tonight’s top pitcher. Even when he’s a bit wild and only lasts five innings, like in his first start, his high strikeout rate gives him an extremely high floor. He’s struck out 12 of the 24 Blue Jays he faced on Sunday. The Orioles struck out 21.7% of the time vs RHP last year, 5th highest in baseball and run out a lineup extremely prone to chasing pitches out of the strike zone.
Brito back in two spot for D'Backs
After sitting last night, Socrates Brito is back in the two spot for the Diamondbacks against the righty Jason Hammel tonight. It’s not that Hammel was bad last season, but he was only allowed to go beyond five innings in four of his last 15 starts and Arizona is playing like the new Colorado early on. Brito, the lefty, can still be a solid value play ahead of Goldschmidt and rigthy masher David Peralta, who has a career 163 wRC+ at home vs RHP in 434 PAs. Peralta is still somehow quite affordable on DraftKings at $3.6K.
Other tagged players: David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Jason Hammel Tillman's velocity up in first start, struck out five of six batters
Chris Tillman struck out five of six batters with his velocity up a tick and a half in his first start before the rain washed it all away. This is a pitcher with a lot to prove after last year though and faces a more balanced lineup than Minnesota this time around in the Rays. In addition, he pitches in a very hitter friendly ball park and may have been pumped up on Opening Day. For those who play on sites where the Win is emphasized, his opponent is the top pitcher on the board tonight (Archer). Perhaps we might not attack Tillman as hard as usual, but the Rays are off to a great start against RHP, led by Kevin Kiermaier’s 192 wRC+. Souza and Dickerson both have 2 HRs vs righties already.
Other tagged players: Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza, Chris Tillman Donaldson returns at DH
Josh Donaldson makes his way back to the lineup, though at DH, not 3B for the Blue Jays. Marcus Stroman, a pronounced ground ball pitcher might miss his defense at 3B, but the effect shouldn’t be felt too hard as his replacement, Darwin Barney, is more known for his glove than his bat anyway. Justin Smoak, the expected DH vs RHP on most nights takes a seat on the bench.
Other tagged players: Darwin Barney, Justin Smoak Toronto faces RHP with 19.2 HR/FB vs RHBs last year
Though Joe Kelly has been about average in wOBA allowed to batters from each side for his career, it should be noted that RHBs popped him for a .365 mark with 10 HRs last year (19.2 HR/FB). That’s very dangerous when facing the Blue Jays, especially when you add in his equally distributed 35.5 Hard% in 2015. Encarnacion, Bautista, and Donaldson all had a wRC+ between 149-155 vs RHP last year, while Pillar was only average (96 wRC+), but his new leadoff spot ahead of the big boppers should put him in consideration at a reasonable price as well.
Other tagged players: Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Joe Kelly, Kevin Pillar Adam Jones not in Friday's lineup, expects to return sometime this weekend
Jones will miss another game on Friday due to a nagging oblique injury, but he expects to be in the lineup sometime this weekend. Nolan Reimold filled in last night and hit second in front of Manny Machado, which would typically make him an intriguing value play, but Chris Archer on the other side takes Reimold out of consideration.
As reported by: Roch Kubatko Other tagged players: Nolan Reimold Pitchers vs Kansas City generally a bad bet
It’s not that the Royals have an over-powering offense, but they make so much contact that most pitchers are generally a bad daily fantasy bet against them and Ervin Santana is probably not the exception. Temperatures in the 50s with wind blowing in around 15 mph from left field according to our weather page don’t make for ideal hitting conditions in a big park either. Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Kendrys Morales all had a wRC+ above 120 and ISOs above .160 vs RHP last year though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Ervin Santana, Mike Moustakas, Kendrys Morales Ventura looks to build on 5+ point K% jump post All Star break
Yordano Ventura saw his K% jump from 19.4% to 24.9% after the All Star break last season with his Hard-Soft contact rates go from 21.1% to 10.1%. That’s more than just progress. That’s a breakout and he looks to builld on it here in a great spot. There’s always a chance a pitcher doesn’t hold these small sample size gains, but it’s very encouraging and makes him a great value play with some more costly pitchers on the board tonight. There’s no interest in attacking him with Minnesota bats in a big park with a great defense behind him. Minnesota has one of the lowest projected run totals (3.44) on our Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Stroman generated 17 ground balls in first start
Marcus Stroman only struck out five Rays, but generated 17 ground balls in 32 batters faced against the Rays in his first start. That’s generally a pitcher with little upside against with a wOBA below .280 career allowed to batters from both side. On the other side, Stroman is not too expensive, but doesn’t come cheap and may not have the strikeout rate (exactly 20.0% career) to justify much expectation beyond his price tag. The Red Sox limited the Ks vs RHP last year and pick up right where they left off with an 18.2 K% vs RHP so far this season.
Feldman faces high strikeout lineup in Milwaukee
Scott Feldman doesn’t generate a lot of strikeouts (13.5 K%) last year, but has allowed hard contact at a well under league average rate each of the last seven years. Additionally, the Brewers have two 30+K% bats in a rebuilding lineup (Domingo Santana, Chris Carter) that could push up his upside to nearly useful at a low cost on two pitcher sites. That said, they still have some power in one of the better hitting parks in the league and Feldman had a major reverse platoon split last year (.354 wOBA, 9HRs to RHBs). Scooter Gennett and Ryan Braun are both worth a look, while Chris Carter already has 2 HRs. Jonathan Villar is a sneaky middle infield option with some pop. Though there are no must haves in this game, the Brewers might supply some over-looked high risk GPP bats.
Other tagged players: Chris Carter, Jonathan Villar, Scott Feldman, Scooter Gennett Atlanta has lowest projected run total on Vegas Odds page
A ground ball rate above 60% generally doesn’t come with a high K%. Only Tyson Ross and Dallas Keuchel generated the same amount of ground balls with a higher K%. Garcia is the 3rd costliest pitcher on both major sites and a great pivot point off the top two if necessary. He faces an Atlanta lineup that struggled to make hard contact already and neutralizes their best hitter (Freddie Freeman – 89 wRC+ vs LHP last year). There’s no interest in the Atlanta bats here as they have the lowest projected run total (3.15) on our Vegas Odds page today.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Liriano a top pitching play against Reds on Friday
Francisco Liriano struck out 10, but also issues five free passes in his first start on Sunday. It was typical Liriano as there is always risk of a blowup, but great upside. This is why he’s the 2nd highest priced pitcher on the board tonight and not the first. The risk is likely to out-weigh the reward tonight against a weak Cincinnati lineup. Joey Votto is the rare LHB who excels vs LHP (178 wRC+) last year, but Liriano eats up lefties (.264 wOBA career) and the Reds offer very little resistance outside of Mesoraco from the RH side. There is some risk to this game weather wise from Kevin’s early forecast and the wind is blowing out hard to center, which adds additional risk, but Liriano is generally not someone to pick on tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Devin Mesoraco Pirates in great spot against Simon if weather holds
Alfredo Simon, now back with the Reds, was a train wreck last season with his BABIP and LOB% regressing to normal and has never shown anything different as a starter other than beating his ERA estimators in 2014. LHBs smashed him for a .369 wOBA last season with 16 HRs. The wind is blowing out strongly to center according to Kevin’s early weather report, but there is also some danger in the forecast. Be sure to check back later, but if this game goes off without a hitch, Pirate hitters may be in one of the best spots of the night in a great park. The Pirates were one of the better teams vs RHP last year with Andrew McCutchen pounding on same handed pitching (143 wRC+) and Starling Marte (122 wRC+) above average as well. John Jaso has a great opportunity at reasonable cost atop the lineup as well. The Pirates should make for a profitable stack on Friday.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Starling Marte, John Jaso, Alfredo Simon Wind gusts could lead to high-scoring game in Cleveland
Rotogrinders.com Chief Meteorologist had this to say about the winds in Chicago in his morning weather forecast: “Winds from the northwest will be whipping, 25mph sustained, gusts around 40mph, that’s blowing out to left.” This means we’re going to want to target right-handed bats especially and with southpaw John Danks and his .353 wOBA allowed to RH bats on the mound we’re going to want to target all the Indians RH hitters. Not surprisingly the Indians have loaded up today with Jason Kipnis (who makes for an excellent GPP flyer) being the only lefty in the lineup. Mike Napoli (.408 wOBA vs LHP), Francisco Lindor (.376 wOBA vs LHP) are your top options but Rajai Davis, Marlon Byrd, and Juan Uribe all provide upside in this plus match up. From the White Sox side of things it’s not as good a situation as Danny Salazar is solid against RH bats (.279 wOBA allowed) but we’re still going to want some exposure to Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier in the middle of their lineup.
As reported by: Cleveland Indians official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier