DFS Alerts

Happy Coors Field Opening Day!!!

It’s that time of the year where everyone stacks the Coors Field game and then cries when the game is a 3-2 pitcher’s duel. With Colin Rea and Jordan Lyles on the mound, however, that’s not likely going to happen today in Colorado and with a 10.5 over/under it’s a game we must target. Lyles has struggled over his career against both sides of the plate but especially against LH bats where he allows a career .356 wOBA (it’s career .328 against RH bats). We don’t have much data to work with regarding Rea as he has only pitched 31 2/3 innings at the major league level. He did have relatively low HR allowed numbers in the minor leagues but this is Coors Field so we can disregard that for the most part. From the Padres side, target the top four of the order (Jon Jay, Cory Spangenberg, Matt Kemp, and Wil Myers) but don’t be afraid to sprinkle in some of the other four if you are playing multiple GPP lineups. The Rockies bats are ones we would target more as they have the highest run total of the day at over 5.5 runs projected. Left handed bats Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, and Gerardo Parra are all great options with CarGo and his .418 wOBA vs RHP the top option. Don’t sleep on hot Trevor Story (who is definitely a GPP fade option given what will likely be sky high ownership) or Nolan Arenado (.398 wOBA vs RHP last season) as other options from the Rockies.

Cold weather could lead to a low-scoring affair in Detroit

Temperatures will be around 40 degrees in Detroit this afternoon making for less than ideal hitting conditions in a game that features two above-average pitchers in Luis Severino and Jordan Zimmermann. Severino has some upside going against a Tigers lineup that has 7 right handed bats in it but he is high-risk as he had a .303 wOBA and 6 HR allowed in just shy of 30 IP to righties last season. That homer potential also squarely puts bats like Justin Upton and Miguel Cabrera in play on a day where they should be under-owned. Zimmermann will be making his Tigers debut and is a favorite to get the win today. However, he faces a Yankees lineup loaded with lefties, who he struggled against last season (.336 wOBA with 13 HR allowed in 101 IP). Mark Teixiera is off to a hot start and his .400+ wOBA vs RHP is the big bat to target. That said, we still expect this game to be lower scoring so Zimmermann is also in play if you are looking for a reason to fade deGrom.

A lot of orange/yellow in Mr. Roth’s forecast for the day with lots of wind and cold temperatures looking as if they will have an impact. It doesn’t look like there are any postponement concerns including blowing out gusts of up to 40 MPH in Cleveland. Check out the rotogrinders.com forums for the entire report which will be updated throughout the day as Kevin gets more information on changing weather conditions.

Jacob deGrom against the Phillies? Yes please.

The Phillies are loading up on left-handed bats against the Mets and Jacob deGrom today as Cameron Rupp is the only righty in the lineup. They are probably trying to avoid the elite .209 wOBA deGrom put up against RH bats last season but he was still well above average against lefties with a .289 wOBA allowed. The Phillies lefties aren’t exactly world beaters as only Andres Blanco has a wOBA that tops .345 in their starting lineup. All this is to say that deGrom is the clear cut top option at SP on the four games in the afternoon and you should look to avoid Phillies bats unless you are going for a very contrarian team stack. On the other side, Jerad Eickhoff exhibited elite stuff against RH bats in limited time last season (.203 wOBA in 30+ IP) but was roughed up by LH bats to the tune of a .353 wOBA allowing 4 HR in just 20 1/3 IP. As such, target bats like Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, and Michael Conforto.

Pujols has a 99.7 exit velocity, 3 HRs vs Holland

Derek Holland has been a decent, but inconsistent pitcher in the past when healthy, but had just a 16.7 K% and 34.6 Hard% with 11 HRs in just 58.2 innings last year. He has a lot to prove before we can consider him for daily fantasy purposes. The Angels weren’t very good vs LHP last season (88 wRC+), but Mike Trout crushes pitchers without prejudice for handedness (185 wRC+ vs LHP last season) and Albert Pujols had just a 106 wRC+ vsLHP, but .252 ISO and great career numbers against Holland, including 6 extra base hits (3 HRs) with just 3 Ks and a 99.7 exit velocity in 27 ABs. Newcomers Escobar and Gentry are interesting atop the lineup at affordable prices. C.J. Cron had just an 84 wRC+ and .126 ISO vs LHP in 133 PAs.

Santiago allowed 26 HRs to RHBs last season

Hector Santiago allowed 26 HRs to RHBs last season, putting Adrian Beltre (146 wRC+, .237 ISO vs LHP last year) and Ian Desmond (106 wRC+, .188 ISO vs LHP) in good spots tonight. In addition, his .252 BABIP and 79.9 LOB% scream regression. He only allowed three HRs to LHBs though and the Rangers are not a team that platoons many spots. In fact, four of their top seven bat from the left-side tonight. Delino DeSheilds was just average with the platoon advantage last year, but benefits from batting atop the lineup just two spots ahead of Beltre.

Kevin just finished his final weather update for today. With only two games affected, MIN@BAL looks like a potential late start, but should get in. TEX@ LAA looks like it could potentially have a late start too with a little more risk. You can see the update in our forum or on our weather page by clicking the link below.

Rubby de la Rosa allowed a 21.7 HR/FB to LHBs at home last season

Rubby de la Rosa dominated RHBs on the road, but allowed a 21.1 HR/FB at home and 21.7 HR/FB to LHBs at home, including 20 HRs to LHBs overall. The interesting thing, though, was a 23.9 K% at home vs RHBs and an 11.1 SwStr% overall that suggests more than an 18.5 K%. The Cubs strike out a lot, but have tonight’s top projected run line (4.85) on our Vegas Odds page. You’re going to want a lot of exposure to their primarily LH lineup and possibly also the only RHB in the first seven lineup spots as Kris Bryant hits RHP well (140 wRC+). Rizzo and Schwarber are your top power targets while Zobrist, Heyward, and Fowler should be high on your radar as well. Rubby de la Rosa may give a couple of bombs tonight, but also may generate a few strikeouts, so you might even consider a small amount of GPP exposure, especially now with Salazar out of the picture.

Red Sox-Indians postponed tonight

The weather in Cleveland is dreadful right now and isn’t expected to improve much before game-time, so tonight’s Red Sox-Indians game has been postponed. No makeup date has been announced yet.

No Brito in D'Backs lineup, Peralta a top OF value play

Socrates Brito was thought to be a great value play in Arizona out of the 2nd spot tonight, but Arizona wasn’t thinking along those lines. He’s out and RHB Nick Ahmed will bat 2nd. He’s not very good with the stick and isn’t in a good spot against one of the better arms on the slate. John Lackey shouldn’t be expected to sustain his career high 82.6 LOB% from last season and may be over-priced in a tough spot. Lefties hit Lackey a bit better than RHBs, though Segura is an option because of his leadoff spot at a weak SS position. David Peralta (150 wRC+ vs RHP last year) is a top OF bat tonight for a reasonable price and Jake Lamb is the other LH bat to look at, though he was just average vs RHP last year.

Not a lot of appeal in Twins vs Ubaldo Jimenez matchup

Both sides of this matchup look rather pedestrian. Ubaldo Jimenez is a rather bland pitcher at this point in his career and his outings usually depend on his ability to throw strikes and generate ground balls, which can go either way on any given day. He did have a career high 13.0 HR/FB, but allowed just 20 HRs due to an increase in his ground ball rate. LH and RH battters hit him at about the same rate last season, though lefties had twice as many HRs in a similar number of PAs. The Twins don’t have any LH power though, so Sano (.273 ISO, 154 wRC+ vs RHP) would be your top choice.

Adam Jones/Matt Wieters OUT vs Phil Hughes

Too bad as both looked to be good bets against Hughes who lost some velocity last year and combined a 14.4 K% with a 15.7 HR/FB on the road. Chris Davis is still the top target here as he crushed one last night and could very well do so again tonight. Don’t feel the need to shy away from some of the cheaper or upper lineup RHBs either as Hughes traditionally has been equally generous with his HRs to batters from either side and Baltimore should give him fits.

Kevin has updated his weather forecast ahead of the late afternoon games. Although not entirely without risk, the HOU@NYY and MIA@WAS games have improved forecasts. You can see the entire update in the forum at the link below.

Salazar today's top pitcher depending on weather

We just touched on weather concerns (near freezing and raining) on the other side of this game in the last alert. If the game goes off without a hitch though (a big IF), Danny Salazar is our unquestioned top starter today. He has, by far, the top K% (25.8) and SwStr% (11.8) with the lowest Zone Contact% (82.5) among today’s pitchers in 2015. The one drawback is that Boston struck out just 17.8% of the time vs RHP last year. Salazar does allow some HRs, making David Ortiz a potentially under-owned GPP consideration without the weather concerns.

Near freezing temp plus rain in Cleveland

Joe Kelly presents a dilemma in that he throws hard, but doesn’t strike anybody out. He allows a lot of hard contact, but most of it is on the ground. He even had a strong reverse platoon split last year, but not historically so. What to do about him may be taken out of our hands anyway today with near freezing temperatures in Cleveland today along with periods of rain. This might best be a situation to avoid altogether.