DFS Alerts

Hitting Environment, But Maybe Two of the Safer Pitchers Today

We kick off the last four game slate of the MLB season in the second most positive run environment on the board in Atlanta, but the most hitter friendly umpire in Alfonso Marquez. The series between the Brewers and Braves is tied at one apiece. Freddy Peralta has struck out one-third of the batters he’s faced this year (33.6%), but almost as impressively, cut his walk rate down to 6.5% over his last 11 starts (9.7% season), though he did struggle a bit with a .301 BABIP and 70.2 LOB% over that span that left him with a 3.86 ERA that was a bit higher than estimators. His season ERA (2.81) matches his 2.72 xERA (86.6 mph EV, 6% Barrels/BBE) and 2.94 DRA with his xFIP a bit higher (3.66). Atlanta is a park downgrade for Peralta and, of course, in a pivotal game three in a tied series, Crag Counsel probably won’t allow him to get into too much trouble, but considering the available pitchers on this slate, that certainly does nothing to preclude him today, especially on DraftKings. The Braves had a 99 wRC+ at home, 100 wRC+ (16.3 HR/FB) vs RHP. The actual lineup includes four batters above a 24.5 K% vs RHP. With a top three price tag on either site, we can probably consider Peralta the second best pitcher on the slate.

Batters from either side of the plate had a wOBA and xwOBA between .244 and .261 against Peralta this season, while the Braves have an implied run line of exactly four, placing them on the lower half of the board. Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) and Austin Riley (146 wRC+, .248 ISO) are the most attractive batters here. Eddie Rosario (107 wRC+, .211 ISO) costs less than $3K on either site.

In three of Ian Anderson’s last six starts, he struck out two or fewer, but seven or more in the other three. The bigger concern this year has been a 9.9 BB%, that, along with a league average strikeout rate (23.2%), generates estimators ranging from a 3.80 DRA to a 4.38 SIERA, all above his 3.58 ERA (79.1 LOB%). The Brewers had a 95 wRC+ on the road, 92 wRC+ vs RHP. However, today’s actual lineup includes just two batters above a 22.3 K% vs RHP this year and the offense did improve later in the season. That said, considering today’s board, Anderson may be the ideal SP2 on DraftKings for just $7.1K.

While Anderson had nearly a 30 point reverse split this year (.279 and .306 wOBA), Statcast narrows that to three points (.318 and .315 xwOBA). Rowdy Tellez (86 wRC+) is the only batter in the lineup below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Willy Adames (124 wRC+, .221 ISO) is the top Milwaukee bat. Kolten Wong (108 wRC+, .182 ISO) costs just $2.8K on FanDuel. Avisail Garcia (105 wRC+, .221 ISO) even less. The Brewers also have a team total of exactly four runs.

CIN RB Joe Mixon expected to play Sunday

After getting some work in yesterday during a Saturday (a rarity for a team playing on Sunday), Mixon is expected to play today against the Green Bay Packers. Mixon has been dealing with an ankle issue that he suffered during last week’s game. Rapoport said that “he won’t be 100%, but Mixon is slated to go”. This ends up being the murkiest situation; when the injured player projects to play, but not be fully healthy or get all the work. Assuming he ends up being officially active, it’s tough to play the backups (Samaje Perine and Chris Evans), knowing they may not get the work. But it’s also tough to pay an elevated price tag for Mixon, with his workload iffy. Overall, this situation is one to stay away, as there are better options with more certainty.

Walker Buehler completed six innings in each of his first 27 starts, failing to produce a quality start just once over that span, but struggled a bit down the stretch with just three quality starts in his last six efforts (4.83 ERA) with his strikeout rate dropping to 22% (27% on the year). His season estimators are all more than half a run above his 2.47 ERA, ranging from a 3.08 xERA to a 3.73 SIERA. However, unlike some other pitchers on this slate, this is not necessarily due to great defense (Dodgers -3 Runs Prevented), but a high strand rate (80.9%). San Francisco has been less of a negative run environment the last couple of years, after some alterations, but it’s still a fine place to pitch. It’s also the only outdoor environment on the slate and a quick consultation of Weather Edge suggests this will favor pitchers tonight. The Giants did quite well at home though (114 wRC+) and had a 15.4 HR/FB (110 wRC+) vs RHP. The projected lineup does include three batters above a 25 K% vs RHP this year. Buehler is a tough roster in a post-season game if his strikeout rate is not going to be well above average against a quality offense.

Nobody in the projected lineup for San Francisco is below a 99 wRC+ or .169 ISO vs RHP this year. At 3.5 implied runs, the Giants are tied with the Dodgers for fifth on an eight team board. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA against Buehler though, so this is a tough matchup from either side for daily fantasy purposes. LaMonte Wade (130 wRC+, .251 ISO) seems like a strong value though. He’s within $200 of $3K on either site.

The only negative on Logan Webb’s resume was that he started just 26 games (148.1 IP). Otherwise, he was simply the best pitcher on the best team in baseball. Webb did attempt to make up for some of that lost workload, by completing seven innings in six of his last 10 starts, but the Giants probably won’t allow him to get into too much trouble against the Dodgers. Webb struck out 26.5% of the batters he faced (20.5 K-BB%) with 60.9% of his contact on the ground and just 5.6% Barrels/BBE. His 3.03 ERA is justified by all estimators being within one-third of a run. You may notice a theme that five of the six teams above 20 Runs Prevented made the post-season this year and the Giants are one of them (+22). That should help against the Dodgers (107 wRC vs RHP), who are without Max Muncy, who, if nothing else, works to extend the pitch counts of the pitchers he faces. He is a difficult bat to replace, even with the Dodgers’ depth. Webb seems a marginal value on this board within $300 of $8.5K on either site.

The Dodgers are expected to produce a lineup where Cody Bellinger (61 wRC+) is the only batter below a 110 wRC+ vs RHP this year. Corey Seager (147 wRC+, .214 ISO), Trea Turner (121 wRC+, .170 ISO), A.J. Pollock (140 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Matt Beaty (111 wRC+, .130 ISO) all exceed a 175 wRC+ since the start of September, but Webb has about a 50 point split with LHBs owning a .299 wOBA (.298 xwOBA) against him and RHBs just a .251 wOBA (.255 xwOBA).

Workload Concerns, But Still SP2 Worthy

Chris Sale registered a strong 21.8 K-BB% in nine starts this year against marginal opposition. A 47.4 GB% was his highest mark in a decade in addition to an 84.6 mph EV and just 3.5% Barrels/BBE. Sale’s 3.14 ERA was below all estimators, but only a 4.08 DRA was much more than half a run higher. Two of Sale’s starts were against the Rays and while they put up seven runs in 9.2 innings, only three were earned. He did strike out just nine of 48 though. The Rays finished with a 107 wRC+ vs LHP this year (114 at home). This is a solidly negative and weather controlled environment in Tampa Bay, but Sale does have one of the worst defenses in baseball behind him though (-30 Runs Prevented).

This combination of factors actually gives the Rays the second highest implied run line on the board (4.01) behind only the Astros. Sale had a massive split by wOBA this year (over 200 points) and still a 53 point one by xwOBA, but Statcast did bring RHBs down to a .295 xwOBA. Wander Franco (181 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Mike Zunino (243 wRC+, .526 ISO) punished LHP this year and yes, those Zunino numbers are real over 114 PAs. Randy Arozarena (153 wRC+, .233 ISO) has already begun re-establishing his October presence this year.

Shane Baz may have just 13.1 innings and 49 major league batters under his resume and the Rays aren’t likely to let him get too deep into this game, but he’s struck out 18 (16.2 SwStr%) with just three walks and a 36 K% at AAA this year too (46 innings). He did allow three home runs (six at AAA), but that encompassed all of the barrels he allowed too (10.7%). With a strikeout rate that high, a barely double digit barrel rate on contact is less of an issue. The Red Sox had a 109 wRC+ vs LHP this year, but Baz has one of the best defenses in baseball behind him (+27 Runs Prevented) in a great park. His cost is low enough that he’s an interesting SP2 on DraftKings ($6.3K) even if we suspect he gets through the order twice and with a one game lead, perhaps Kevin Cash is more lenient.

Considering Baz’s small sample dominance, the bullpen, defense and environment, it’s difficult to push too hard for Boston bats, especially with speculation that Rafael Devers (152 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP), along with J.D. Martinez (135 wRC+, .246 ISO), may be playing while compromised, but Kyle Schwarber’s production (157 wRC+, .359 ISO) can’t be ignored.

Pitcher Friendly Umpire For Today's Top Pitcher

Charlie Morton not only bounced back and proved that he could be something more than the twice through the order guy the Rays treated him like for most of the last two years, he emphasized it. Morton authored 19 quality starts this year, completing seven innings seven times with a 21.9 K-BB% and above average ground ball rate (47.8%), allowing just 4.9% Barrels/BBE. A 2.93 DRA was his only estimator more than one-quarter of a run removed from a 3.34 ERA. A neutral run environment in Milwaukee is a park upgrade and while the Brewers had just a 92 wRC+ vs RHP, this was a lineup with quite a bit of turnover this year and most of it for the better. However, half the projected lineup (four) exceed a 23 K% vs RHP this season. With a normal workload expectation in a controlled, neutral run environment with a potentially pitcher friendly umpire (Mike Estabrook), Morton may be one of the top values on the board, especially at less than $8K on DraftKings, assuming a near standard workload.

Batters from either side of the plate were below a .285 wOBA and xwOBA against Morton this season with less than a 20 point split, though RHBs were slightly better (.271, .281). Willy Adames is the top batter in the projected lineup by wRC+ (124) or ISO (.221) vs RHP this year. The Astros are fourth on the board with a 3.85 run team total.

If number of innings pitched weren’t a factor, Corbin Burnes would be your runaway Cy Young winner. He finished the season with a 30.4 K-BB%, nearly half his contact on the ground (48.8%), 85.5 mph EV and just 3.1% Barrels/BBE. His 2.43 ERA was within half a run of all non-FIP estimators. His FIP (1.63) was actually much lower. Burnes actually competed seven innings seven times this year and fewer than six eight times in 28 starts. He faces an average offense (100 wRC+ vs RHP) with power (16.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but five batters in the projected lineup above a 25 K% vs RHP this year. This is your highest upside spot on the board. Craig Counsel will pull a pitcher quickly if he needs to, but that shouldn’t be the case here. Corbin Burns is the most expensive pitcher on the board, but may still be the top value.

While LHBs had a .248 wOBA against Burnes this year, batters from either side were below a .220 xwOBA against him. Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP) and Austin Riley (146 wRC+, .248 ISO) may be the only bats worth considering here, though everyone in the projected lineup had at least a .165 ISO vs RHP this season.

Two Top Projected Offenses Kick Off a Long Day of Baseball

Lucas Giolito has competed six innings in just one of his last five starts, but it was six shutout innings on exactly 100 pitches in his next to last start. He missed the first half of September and struck out just 13 of his last 65 with an 11.9 SwStr% that’s more than three points below his season rate. His full season numbers included a 27.9 K% (20.2 K-BB%) with just 33.2% of his contact on the ground, but still allowing only 6.7% Barrels/BBE on an 87.7 mph EV. A 3.79 FIP was his furthest removed estimator from a 3.53 ERA. Strong numbers, but only 15 of his 31 starts were quality starts. He will occasionally throw in a stinker with four runs or more allowed six times this year. He’s in a very tough spot, facing an offense with a 116 wRC+ and 10.8 K-BB% vs RHP in a neutral, domed environment. Four of the first five batters in the Houston lineup are below a 15.5 K% vs RHP this season, although the bottom two are above 31%. There’s not a bad pitcher on the board today, but Giolito’s matchup and the fact that his team is down in the series makes him one of the tougher rosters.

Giolito has a slight reverse split, although batters from either side of the plate were below a .300 wOBA & xwOBA against him this year. Each of the first eight batters in the Houston lineup exceed a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Jose Altuve (136 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP) might be the top second baseman on the board, while Michael Brantley (158 wRC+, .143 ISO) is a top value for $3.4K on DraftKings and a full $1K less on FanDuel. No Houston batter costs more than $4.6K on DraftKings. Houston tops the board with a team total of 4.1 runs.

Framber Valdez finished the season with a 70.3 GB% in 134.2 innings. As impressive as that is, he backed it with just a 21.9 K% and 10.1 BB% that aren’t very daily fantasy friendly, so what you are dependent upon when rostering him is the workload. He recorded seventh inning starts in 12 of his 22 starts. That workload is less guaranteed in the post-season, but the sense of urgency should be less after a first game victory, especially with an old school manager. Valdez’s 3.14 ERA is about half a run less than estimators ranging from a 3.58 xFIP to a 4.01 FIP and DRA, but Houston also had the second best defense in baseball this year, according to Statcast’s Runs Prevented (34). The White Sox were did have a 113 wRC and 15.7 HR/FB vs LHP this season. The first three in the Chicago lineup are all below a 20 K% vs LHP, but the middle three are all above 24%. Framber is interesting for $7.5K on DraftKings ($1.8K more on FanDuel) with the longer leash expectation.

That said, the White Sox will stack up entirely right-handed. Batters from that side had a .281 wOBA and .296 xwOBA against Valdez this season. Luis Robert smashed LHP in 121 PAs this year (231 wRC+, .397 ISO), as did Yasmani Grandal (184 wRC+, .281 ISO), Jose Abreu (161 wRC+, .309 ISO) and Andrew Vaughn (156 wRC+, .286 ISO). Nobody else in the lineup exceeds a .180 ISO vs LHP. Tim Anderson is the only other batter above a 99 wRC+ (125). The White Sox are third on the board at 3.9 implied runs.

Twelve HRs and 15 Barrels Over Last 28.2 Innings

The Mets are reasoning that fatigue has been the reason for Tylor Megill’s recent ineffectiveness, giving him extra days between starts (just four in September), although he’s thrown just 125 combined innings this year. The key piece of evidence being 12 home runs and 15 barrels allowed over his last 28.2 innings and now only five strikeouts with six walks over his last two starts. However, his velocity hasn’t declined and he still carries an 18.5 K-BB% with all non-FIP estimators more than half a run below his 4.78 ERA, including a 4.06 xERA that includes the 10.4% Barrels/BBE and 90.2 mph EV he’s allowed. Never the less, he’s now exhibiting a tremendous platoon split with LHBs (.432 wOBA, .361 xwOBA) over 100 points higher than RHBs by either metric. The Braves don’t generally utilize a lot of LHBs in their starting lineup and they did clinch the division last night, so who knows what they’ll do tonight, but in one of the few positive run environments on the slate tonight, players will probably want some exposure to any LHBs they throw out there. Currently, that’s projected to be Freddie Freeman (147 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP), Ozzie Albies (93 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Eddie Rosario (103 wRC+, .203 ISO). Who knows, but with smaller September rosters this year, the Braves can’t really deviate too much. Still, the Braves sit in the middle of the board with a 4.37 implied run line that looks a bit too low here.

Oddsmakers Are Suggesting There's Value in this Lineup

Looking for value bats tonight? One lineup really stands out. Or at least part of one lineup. John Heasley will get his third start for the Royals tonight, striking out just five of 37 with two walks and homers in his first two. He did have a 19.9 K-BB% at AA, but that’s quite the jump and oddsmakers agree, gracing the Twins with the sixth highest team total on the board (4.75 runs). The most interesting thing here is that there are some very affordable bats in the projected Minnesota lineup. We can’t pay much attention to splits attained from 37 batters, but LHBs (.407 wOBA, .398 xwOBA) are far ahead of RHBs (.270 wOBA, .312 xwOBA), which really makes us like cheap, left-handed Twins like projected leadoff man Luis Arraez (107 wRC+, .087 ISO, .351 xwOBA vs RHP), who may have to rely on the batters behind him to drive him in and supply maximum value, but we can pay a little more for Jorge Polanco (126 wRC+, .238 ISO) because Arraez barely costs the minimum on FanDuel and then save some more with Max Kepler (117 wRC+, .243 ISO).

These Two Bats Have Punished Tonight's Pitcher

When browsing controversial BvP information, the one thing that can stick out is home runs and that’s certainly the case today. Whether you filter by xwOBA or home runs you’ll notice two names at the top of the board tonight. They are Alex Bregman (138 wRC+, .147 ISO vs LHP) with three home runs and a .426 xwOBA (91.6 mph EV) in 43 PAs and Kyle Tucker (134 wRC+, .270 ISO) with four home runs, a double and a .484 xwOBA (97.3 mph EV) against Sean Manaea. The latter is the larger surprise here, as RHBs have a .328 wOBA (.320 xwOBA) against Manaea this year, but LHBs have just a .250 wOBA (.270 xwOBA). Manaea has been great at times this season, but has been hit or miss. He has thrown seven innings of two run ball or better with at least eight strikeouts in three of his last five starts, but has allowed nine runs in 10 innings with just six strikeouts in the other two. On the season, he owns a 20.3 K-BB% with a 3.94 ERA that’s above all estimators except for a 4.11 ERA that takes his 90.4 mph EV into account. This will be his sixth start against Houston this year, so they’ve seen him quite a bit. A 4.48 implied run line lands Houston somewhere on the middle of the board. The Astros are an interesting contrarian play tonight as a high priced Manaea is probably not a pitcher a lot of players are going to attack. Another surprising factor in favor of Houston bats is that the A’s have one of the worst bullpens in baseball over the last 30 days (6.37 ERA/5.12 FIP/4.91 xFIP/4.22 SIERA).

Top of the Board Bats Look Familiar Tonight

While you wouldn’t have necessarily known it from their just concluded series with Boston, the numbers still say the Baltimore bullpen is worst in the majors over the last 30 days (6.40 ERA/5.15 FIP/5.37 xFIP/4.81 SIERA). Perhaps the Blue Jays will have more success. Oddsmakers certainly think so as they have a whopping 6.75 implied run line in a neutral park in Toronto that’s more than a run above any other offense on a 14 game slate tonight. Tom Eschelman has pitched two games in relief since being recalled after making five starts prior to the break, all going less than five innings. Eschelman has just a 0.9 K-BB% over 25 innings, allowing five home runs on eight barrels. He has a 4.5 K-BB% in 95.2 career innings. Every batter in the projected Toronto lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year and astonishingly, there are six in there above a 150 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Still playing for their post-season lives, stack up those Toronto Blue Jays.

This may hurt to hear, but the Red Sox have the second highest team total tonight (5.58 runs) and are still playing for something against the Nationals. They do lose the DH tonight, but through five starts and 29.2 innings, Josh Rogers has just a 6.4 K-BB% with 34.1% of his contact on the ground and five of eight barrels leaving the yard. A 2.73 ERA is entirely the product of a .230 BABIP and 93.5 LOB% with estimators more than two and a half runs higher. It’s one of the few positive run environments on this slate and the Washington bullpen behind Rogers is pretty awful too (6.16 ERA/5.58 FIP/4.89 xFIP/4.48 SIERA last 30 days). The Red Sox will try to get it done again against below average LHP (RHBs .375 wOBA, .384 xwOBA vs Rogers). Christian Vazquez is the only projected batter below a 110 wRC+ vs LHP this season. Hunter Renfroe (133 wRC+, .230 ISO) has become quite expensive, but Bobby Dalbec (126 wRC+, .260 ISO) is still cheap and Jose Iglesias (114 wRC+, .149 ISO) even cheaper. Only two other offenses exceed five runs (White Sox, Giants) and only one actually playing for something, which seems a bit odd on such a large slate with a lack of viable high priced pitching, but that’s due more to circumstances than talent tonight.

Covering Pitchers in Meaningful Games and More

If we’re looking at paying down for pitching tonight, perhaps we’re looking at guys like Anthony DeSclafani, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nestor Cortes, Steven Matz and Marco Gonzales, who are still pitching for something. Well, okay, maybe not Gonzales (11.1% Barrels/BBE), who has nine quality starts in his last 11 starts, but with a 5.15 xFIP. Although, four in the projected opposing lineup exceed a 29 K% vs LHP this year. Rodriguez has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts, finally dropping his ERA below five (4.93), but only has two quality starts to show for it. In fact, he’s completed six innings in just four of his last 14 starts. For a lot of the season, estimators were around two runs below his ERA. Now, they’re a run to a run and a half with a .365 BABIP and 67.6 LOB% to go with a 20.6 K-BB% and 86.6 mph EV. The workload is one problem and while it’s actually a park upgrade for him, Washington is still a positive run environment, one of very few on the slate tonight and the Nationals can still hit LHP (112 wRC+ with just two in projected lineup above an 18 K% this season).

DeSclafani has gone eight straight starts without allowing more than three runs, but has just three quality starts in that span, failing to complete even five innings four times. The peripherals are fine (16.2 K-BB%), even if estimators ranging from a 3.64 DRA to a 4.10 SIERA are a bit above his 3.26 ERA, but DeSclafani has barely averaged five innings per start this year. The Padres have a 100 wRC+ vs RHP with only three in the projected lineup exceeding a 20.2 K% against them.

Increasing his strikeout rate to 24.6% over his last five starts has brought Matz up to 22.3% on the season, in which he’s carrying a 12.1 HR/FB that’s his lowest mark since his 35 inning rookie season (2015). A 3.88 ERA is within a quarter run of non-DRA estimators. The Orioles have a 102 wRC+ vs LHP, but that’s been dropping in the second half and Matz is at home in a more neutral run environment with four projected Baltimore batters above a 24 K% vs LHP. An 11.4 SwStr% over Nestor Cortes’s last eight starts has added more validity to his 25.5 K% as a starter, a span over which he’s generated just 25.7% of contact on the ground with an 89.7 mph EV, but still produced a 3.31 ERA. Of course, estimators are higher (85.3 LOB%), but with a 19.6 K-BB%, he’s removed a lot of doubt. The Rays have a 105 wRC+ vs LHP with four in the projected lineup exceeding a 25 K% vs LHP.

Who else? Eli Morgan has shown some strikeout upside with six or more in six of his 17 starts, but there’s also a fair amount of risk in his 28.7 GB% and 89.5 mph EV, resulting in 18 home runs on 31 barrels (12.4%) in just 83.2 innings. The good news is that all estimators are below his 5.27 ERA. The bad news is the lowest of them is a 4.44 SIERA. Texas has an 87 wRC+ vs RHP and the park is a negative run environment with the roof closed. Four in the opposing projected lineup have at least a 23.5 K% vs RHP, which isn’t great, but Morgan can be a viable GPP play at a low price, attempting to establish his place in the rotation going forward. Lastly, Jon Gray didn’t exactly re-establish himself as a front line starter this year, but it was a nice bounce back from a pretty awful showing last year with a perfectly average 14.7 K-BB%, nearly half his contact on the ground (49.1%) and just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. His 4.28 ERA is actually a bit above estimators ranging from a 3.59 DRA to a 4.22 SIERA. He’s headed into free agency and faces an Arizona lineup, likely without a lot of strikeouts, but with a 78 wRC+ vs RHP. Another little tidbit in this game is that the roof is expected to be open according to the team website and Statcast Park Factors actually suggest that makes it a more pitcher friendly environment since the humidor installation.

A Lot of Information About Expensive Pitchers in Meaningless Games

The last large night slate of the MLB season is a difficult one to navigate, due mostly to incomplete information, so let’s give you all the information we currently have. We still don’t even know who’s pitching for the Cubs and Padres, while we have to guess at pitcher workloads for much of the slate in meaningless games. For example, the only pitcher to reach $10K on both sites tonight is Clayton Kershaw. He’s certainly still pitching for something, though it’s a long shot for the Dodgers to win the division at this point, but he hasn’t reached 75 pitches in any of three starts since returning from the IL, but has been just beneath that mark in each of his last two. He’s struck out 16 of 56 since his return with a 52.8 GB% and two walks, so the quality of the performance has been the same, but it’s the length we certainly can’t trust at this cost tonight. For the sake of completion, the Brewers have a 90 wRC+ vs LHP with three in the projected lineup exceeding a 30 K% vs LHP, but this is a meaningless game for them, unless they really want to keep the Dodgers in that Wild Card game.

Framber Valdez, Lance Lynn and Sandy Alcantara each cost at least $10K on one site tonight. Nonen of them are pitching for anything, while two of them are tuning up for post-season starts next week. That may mean that Alcantara has the loosest strings with the Marlins not needing to hold anything back? He has 10 quality starts in his last 12 attempts and has recorded seventh inning outs in exactly half of his 32 starts with a 24 K% (18 K-BB%), 53.4 GB% and just 5.7% Barrels/BBE. Estimators are tightly packed between a 3.30 DRA and 3.67 SIERA. Maybe the Phillies (92 wRC+ vs RHP) are flat, having just been eliminated in a pitcher friendly park, but only three batters in the projected lineup exceed a 20.1 K% vs RHP this year.

Framber Valdez has completed six innings in eight of his last nine starts, but has just a 3.6 K-BB% (14.5 BB%) over his last three. If there’s any goal for him today, perhaps it’s finishing the season with a ground ball rate above 70% (70.1% currently)? But when a good portion of the value is built into the workload and that’s somewhat of a coin flip here….and it’s not even a good matchup, though five in the projected Oakland lineup have at least a 23 K% vs LHP this year. Lynn has been blistered in two of his last four starts, pushing his ERA up to 2.72, still more than a half run above all estimators except for a 2.63 ERA that accounts for the 5.9% Barrels/BBE that he’s allowed. A 20.5 K-BB% is in line with his work in Texas the last couple of years, though he hasn’t been the typical workhorse this year, averaging just under six innings per start and the White Sox have no reason to push him even that far tonight, which doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t. The matchup here is fine. Detroit has a 91 wRC+ vs RHP and five batters in the projected lineup have at least a 25 K% vs RHP this year.

Sean Manaea and Shane McClanahan are the only other pitchers to reach $9K on both sites, though Ranger Suarez is short by just $200. All three are quality left-handed pitchers, pitching in meaningless games, though not necessarily for their opposition. The Rays have the most incentive NOT to over-work McClanahan for obvious reasons and the Yankees (the only team still playing for something here) have a 111 wRC+ vs LHP. Strikeouts have been dipping for McClanahan, who has four or less in three of his last five starts, but still exactly a 20 K-BB% on the year. The larger concern with a drop in his strikeout rate is a troubling contact profile that includes a 91.6 mph EV and 10.7% Barrels/BBE. In fact, he’s allowed 20 barrels (14.6%), but just five home runs since the start of August (49.1 IP), which seems a bit fortunate. A 4.63 xERA is exactly a run above his SIERA and DRA, his next highest estimators. He’s recorded a sixth inning out in just one of his last six starts.

Suarez has allowed as many as three runs just once in his 11 starts. Is he as good as his 1.69 ERA? No, but the fact that he’s been really good and even still improving can’t be argued. Suarez has a 21.8 K-BB% with a 52.6 GB% over his last 44 innings. This comes with a 1.96 FIP, but he’s allowed just three barrels over this span. His worst season estimator is a 3.54 SIERA. It’s a great matchup (Marlins 80 wRC+ vs LHP with three in the projected lineup striking out more than one-third of the time against them) in a great park. If the Phillies are going to just let him do his thing, he may even be the top pitcher and top value on the board tonight. Manaea has thrown seven innings of two run ball or better with at least eight strikeouts in three of his last five starts, but has allowed nine runs in 10 innings with just six strikeouts in the other two. On the season, he owns a 20.3 K-BB% with a 3.94 ERA that’s above all estimators except for a 4.11 ERA that takes his 90.4 mph EV into account. The projected lineup for Houston has three batters above a 15 K% vs LHP. There’s every reason in the world to fade high priced pitching tonight, but if you’re going to pay up, perhaps the matchup in Miami is your best bet.

This Big Lefty May Not Be Welcomed Home So Warmly

The short way of putting things is that Madison Bumgarner’s 4.58 ERA is the same as his SIERA with his remaining estimators all within one-third of a run. He’s a back end starter at this point in his career and with a .323 wOBA/.326 xwOBA against RHBs this year, his old team can take advantage, as they’re currently projected to line up entirely from the right-side with quality hitters. In fact, of those projected, only Thairo Estrada is below a 118 wRC+ or .170 ISO against lefties this year. Kris Bryant (144 wRC+, .262 ISO vs LHP) and Buster Posey (175 wRC+, .250 ISO) are your expensive bats here, but Evan Longoria (201 wRC+, .339 ISO), Austin Slater (130 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Darin Ruf (164 wRC+, .312 ISO) are quite a bit cheaper. While San Francisco is a negative run environment, it’s been less of one with some stadium alterations over the last couple of years and the Giants actually have the third highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.12).

Batters from Either Side Above a .400 xwOBA

Finding the value bats on this nine game board is not as easy as it has been the last few days, though a couple of Boston bats still qualify (Bobby Dalbec, Jose Iglesias). It also may not be as necessary with less of a need to pay up for extremely high priced pitchers. One spot we can to for some of these cheaper bats is ironically the same one we might be looking to for lower priced GPP arms at Citi Field. Edward Cabrera has shown some upside, striking out 13 of his last 36 batters, but the contact profile is a mess, including a 9.18 xERA with batters from either side of the plate above a .400 xwOBA against him. The Mets have a middling 4.41 implied run line in a negative run environment, but you might be surprised to learn that each of the first six batters in the projected lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year with only Brandon Nimmo (131 wRC+, .147 ISO) below a .185 ISO. And at $3.2K or less out of the leadoff spot, Nimmo is still one of the top values on the board. Another one would be Michael Conforto (118 wRC+, .203 ISO), who crushed a 469 foot homer last night and costs less than $3K on either site. Francisco Lindor (107 wRC+, .187 ISO) is the only batter in the projected lineup costing more than $4K on DraftKings.

The Clear Top Offense is a Difficult Fade Once Again

The Red Sox are at it again. Or at least the odds makers are. For the third straight night they are the top projected offense outside Coors by a large margin in Baltimore (facing a lefty). At 6.02 implied runs, no other team is within half a run on a nine game slate. In fact, only two other teams (Dodgers, Giants) have run totals above five tonight. While the Red Sox failed spectacularly on Tuesday night, at least they hit their run total last night, shutting out the Orioles 6-0. It’s virtually the same spot tonight. Alex Wells has thrown 36.2 innings with just a 13.7 K%, 28.4 GB% and 47% of his contact at a 95 mph exit velocity or higher. His only estimator below six is a 5.62 SIERA. RHBs own a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against him, though LHBs are within five points of .350 too. And the O’s still have the worst bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days and by far the worst on the board (6.35 ERA/5.22 FIP/5.29 xFIP/4.78 SIERA). The right-handed core of this lineup are among the top bats on the board, including Xander Bogaerts (120 wRC+, .162 ISO vs LHP), J.D. Martinez (114 wRC+, .212 ISO) and even Hunter Renfroe (135 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Enrique Hernandez (124 wRC+, .220 ISO) with Bobby Dalbec (126 wRC+, .260 ISO) the lower priced value play. Jose Iglesias (117 wRC+, .151 ISO) is also worth a look at a low cost.

A Dodger stack is also great, but probably more expensive in a more neutral to negative run environment. While Vince Velasquez has a 50+ point wOBA split, Statcast closes the gap to less than 10 points with batters from either side still above .330. Vince Velasquez has faced 37 batters over three starts for the Padres. He’s struck out nine, but also has a 94.2 mph EV. The plan seems to be aimed towards less than twice through the order, but then it’s also shocking how poor the San Diego bullpen has been over the last month (4.97 ERA/5.07 FIP/4.79 xFIP/4.12 SIERA). Every batter in the projected lineup for the Dodgers exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs RHP. In fact, Gavin Lux is the only one below either a 120 wRC+ or .165 ISO vs RHP this year, but he does have a 164 wRC+ over the last 30 days.