DFS Alerts

One Spot That May Be Worth Attacking Quality Pitchers

We already know that Coors is a near impossible fade, given DraftKings pricing tonight, but GPPs aren’t won by having the same lineup as everyone else. In fact, our Stacks tool in LineupHQ currently projects any Coors stacks as having massively negative leverage as both teams currently project for more than 15% ownership stack-wise. The first point of interest is that neither of those teams tops the Smash% standings in simulations tonight. That honor currently belongs to the Dodgers, though they also have a negative Leverage number currently (although, that could change). Looking at some of the best leverage projections means we’d have to attack some top pitchers tonight. The Reds currently have one of the top Value projections and the top Leverage number, but that means a team with the worst wRC+ on the board for the season would have to pound Walker Buehler and the Dodger bullpen. That may be too unlikely to happen. Another option is both teams in San Diego. You’re dealing with two quality pitchers (Morton, Musgrove) in a negative run environment, but two capable offenses. That’s only slightly more interesting. The Rangers have a strong Leverage number, but weak Smash% and Value% projections. There’s a chance Shohei Ohtani could start walking batters again.

Yankee Stadium may have the most interesting numbers though. Luis Severino is facing Kevin Gausman and both pitchers gave their fans plenty to be enthusiastic about in their first starts. However, this is probably the most hitter friendly park on the slate outside Coors with some favorable weather and winds blowing out to RF. Gausman has a wOBA below .270 against batters from either side of the plate since last year, but Statcast pushes that up by 20-30 points (RHBs .287 xwOBA, LHBs .297). That’s still well below the league average, but this lineup is loaded with mashers. Anthony Rizzo (107 wRC+), Aaron Judge (141 wRC+), Giancarlo Stanton (134 wRC+) and Joey Gallo (127 wRC+) all exceed a .210 ISO vs RHP since 2021. The biggest problem here is that this is going to be an expensive stack on DK (less so on FD), though cheaper pitcher pricing will help you get there.

The other side may be more interesting. Much of the concern the Yankees may have had for Severino, making just his fourth start since 2018, evaporated when his fastball averaged 98 mph over three innings. He struck out five of the 14 Red Sox he faced with five of nine batted balls on the ground. However, two of the remaining four batted balls were barrels and he generated just a 7.7 SwStr%. He also threw just 65 pitches. That means we’re likely to see a lot of bullpen here. Though with the Yankees, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Yet, we’re unlikely to see their highest leverage relievers in the middle of the game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (175 wRC+, .318 ISO vs RHP since last season) homered three times on a day when he has to get stitches in his finger yesterday. George Springer (141 wRC+, .300 ISO) really has been worth the money when on the field. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (108 wRC+, .190 ISO) is much cheaper and expected to hit cleanup with Teoscar Hernandez projected out.

This Cheap Stack Could Be Your Answer on FanDuel

While DK pricing makes Coors the easy answer to most questions tonight, let’s talk a little bit about what to do on FanDuel, where a Pittsburgh stack may be a bit interesting. To be clear, this is not a very good offense, but FD pitcher pricing is expensive tonight and only Ke’Bryan Hayes reaches the $3K price point among Pittsburgh bats and the Pirates actually have the fourth highest implied run line on the slate (4.7). Joan Adon has struck out 12 of the 46 major league batters he’s faced through two starts, though with just an 8.9 SwStr%. Stuff isn’t the problem, as he’s had some impressive SwStr rates in the minors and impressive movement on his pitches at times. The young man also seemingly doesn’t know where it’s going. He’s walked seven at the major league level and had some fairly high walk rates throughout the minors. As far as prospect ranking, Adon currently sits at 22nd in the Washington organization with a 40 FV grade (Fangraphs). Pirate bats are five of the top seven values or point per dollar projections on FanDuel tonight. Starting with Daniel Vogelbach (112 wRC+, .163 ISO), projected to bat leadoff, no other batters is projected for more than five points per $1K of salary on the slate. Vogelbach is at 5.41 currently. Ben Gamel (115 wRC+, .166 ISO), Yoshi Tsutsugo (88 wRC+, .153 ISO) and Bryan Reynolds (139 wRC+, .232 ISO) are also top projected values on FD tonight.

Extremely Clear Top Stack on DraftKIngs, Though FanDuel Makes it Tougher

This is a Coors slate. There is simply no way around it. Despite the very marginal offenses occupying that park tonight, they’ll be facing two marginal pitchers on a slate with hardly any other positive run environments (on either site). Factor in that the universal humidor this season may also bring most other parks closer to neutral this year, while not affected Coors at all because they’ve had the humidor in place for years. Then, you have Shohei Ohtani and Joe Musgrove costing less than $8K on DraftKings, which makes fitting Coors bats even easier. The Dodgers are the only team outside Coors within a quarter of a run of a five run team total. There is currently more than half an implied run separating the top three teams from the rest of the board. Dodger bats are currently expected to be more popular on FanDuel, where pitcher prices are much higher, but no team comes close to being as popular as the Rockies are projected to be against Justin Steele tonight on DraftKings.

Steele struck out just 19.8% of batters (10.4 BB%) through nine starts last year, so it opened some eyes when he struck out five of 18 Brewers in his first start with a single walk and 58.5 GB%. Half his contact was on the ground last year too (50.3%), but only twice in his nine starts did he strike out more than a quarter of the batters he faced. Unfortunately, he had just a 5.2 SwStr% against the Brewers, so we probably shouldn’t be expecting much more than a ground ball machine yet. Though that’s not necessarily a terrible thing at Coors. However, RHBs have a .345 wOBA against Steele since last season and Connor Joe (134 wRC+, .220 ISO vs LHP since 2021) costs just $3.5K or less out of the leadoff spot. No bat costing more than $3K on DraftKings has a higher point per dollar value projection (PlateIQ). In fact, C.J. Cron (160 wRC+, .297 ISO) and Kris Bryant (136 wRC+, .240 ISO) are the only bats on either site to reach the $4K price point and neither costs more than $4.5K.

Cubs bats cost significantly more for some reason, but Clint Frazier (81 wRC+, .081 ISO) is projected to hit leadoff tonight against Kyle Freeland (RHBs .349 wOBA since 2021) and costs less than $3K on either site. He projects as tonight’s top value play on DraftKings by a very wide margin. FanDuel makes it a bit harder where Frazier is not even a top five projected value and the only bat in this game in the top 10, but DraftKings has made Coors an impossible fade in cash games and even a very difficult one in GPPs tonight.

Just One Batter Below 23.5 K% vs RHP in This Lineup

Pitching is cheap enough on DraftKings where players probably don’t have to drop down to the bottom of the board for their secondary arms tonight, but there are still a few lower priced arms worth mentioning. Zack Greinke’s velocity was actually up a tick in his return to the Royals, though he still struck out only one Guardian with a 4.8 SwStr%. The control (5.1 BB%) and contact management (6.4% Barrels/BBE) have remained excellent since the start of last year, but with just a 16.8 K%, the ERA and estimators have jumped above four. All of that said, he might be too cheap against the Tigers in Kansas City, a power suppressing park. Greinke costs just $6.8K.

Dane Dunning faced more batters in his first start of the season (23) than he did in all, but four starts last year. He posted a league average 22.3 K% last year with a 53.9 GB%. Perhaps that’s persuaded the Rangers to take the reins off or at least loosen them a bit this year. While he struck out just four of 23 batters with two walks and a home run, that’s a pretty successful start against the Blue Jays. The Angels should be one of the better offenses in the league if all of their star stay healthy, but they haven’t started off all that strongly (87 wRC+) and feature just one batter below a 23.5 K% vs RHP since last season in their lineup. Dunning costs just $6.4K on DK.

J.T. Brubaker is only available on FanDuel, but makes for a daring play at $6.3K for those who want to load up on Coors bats. He walked three of the 17 Cardinals he faced in his first start, allowing a home run as well. The latter was a major problem for him last year, but not the former (7.1 BB%). St Louis had just a 25% chase rate in that game. He gets a much easier matchup today, facing a lineup full of young hitters, though don’t expect Soto to be chasing either. Brubaker does have a career 15.9 K-BB%, which suggests there’s still some upside here. The Nats have just a 70 wRC+ and team 20 K-BB% this season.

Large Price Differentials Make For Great Pitching Value on DK

The FanDuel slate starts a half hour earlier tonight and includes two more games than DraftKings for a total eight. Fanduel also offers three pitchers exceeding $10K tonight, all also available much cheaper on DraftKings. Several more pitchers reach the $9K mark on either site, but some of them are just silly. The most expensive pitcher on the slate is Shohei Ohtani ($10.8K), who started the season by striking out nine of 19 Astros with a 15 SwStr%. He walked just one. If Ohtani isn’t walking batters, he’s been great with a 3.51 SIERA being his worst estimator since the start of last season. While the Texas lineup did make major additions this off-season, they still offer an easier matchup than Houston. Ohtani is a tremendous value on DK for less than $8K. In fact, he has the second highest overall point total projection tonight (PlateIQ) and is currently the top point per dollar value on DK.

Walker Buehler ($10.5K) is the top projected pitcher overall and the most expensive on DK ($9.7K). He struck out five of 22 at Coors with two walks and a 53.5 GB% first time out. Buehler’s strikeout rate (26%) and K-BB% (19.6) declined for the second straight year last year, while his 2.47 ERA was well below estimators in the mid-threes due to a .247 BABIP and 80.9 LOB%. That he has a career .261 BABIP now means that he may have some talent at keeping it suppressed, though he also plays in front of an effective defense. Considering that he’s never been near the top of the SwStr% board either, we should probably expect him to remain more above average than elite in that category too. Buehler does pitch deep into games though and that may be where the real value lies here. He recorded seventh inning outs in more than half his starts last year. He should be a fine choice at home against a Cincinnati team that has the lowest wRC+ on the board (66) for the 2022 season so far.

Joe Musgrove ($10.3K) has been great since the trade to San Diego with a 20.4 K-BB% and estimators that are above his 3.17 ERA, but all below four. He struck out eight of 22 Diamondbacks (13.5 SwStr%) with just a single walk his first time out. The Braves are the toughest matchup of the three here, but Musgrove costs just $7.6K on DK, projecting as the second best value on the board. Charlie Morton is the only other pitcher to reach $9K on both sites. He excelled in his return to Atlanta last season (28.6 K%, 4.9% Barrels/BBE) with a 3.53 SIERA being his worst estimator, but his post-season ended almost immediately with a broken leg. He struck out five of 19 Reds with an 85.1 mph EV and no barrels allowed in his first start of the year, but had just a 7.7 SwStr% with four ground balls. His velocity was also down about a mile per hour from last year. San Diego is a park upgrade, but there are several pitchers projected ahead of him tonight, while he’s expected to be marginally popular.

Kevin Gausman struck out five of the 22 Rangers he faced with no walks in his first start for the Blue Jays, but the real story was a 20 SwStr% without a single barrel allowed. Gausman has had estimators in the mid to low threes in each of the last two years now and while he did allow three runs in five innings, he gave his new team no reason to expect something less. Gausman projects as a top five pitcher on either site, despite a tough matchup at Yankee Stadium. Kyle Gibson struck out 10 A’s to start the season, which has spiked his price tag to $9.8K in Miami. He’s only available on FD tonight. He’s opposed by Sandy Alcantara, who walked five of the 21 Giants he faced on opening day with just a 4.8 SwStr%. The Marlins are hoping to see him continue his breakout from last season (18.0 K-BB%, 53.3 GB%). Since last year, Alcantara has allowed just a .270 xwOBA at home, which is best on the board today. He also had just 6% walk and barrel rates last year. One poor start against a great team is nothing to worry about yet. Somehow, Reiver Sanmartin costs more than Gausman, Ohtani and Musgrove on DraftKings tonight.

Alex Kirilloff (wrist) scratched Wednesday, to be placed on 10-day IL

Alex Kirilloff (wrist) scratched Wednesday, to be placed on 10-day IL

Javier Baez (thumb) scratched Wednesday

Javier Baez (thumb) scratched Wednesday

The start of Guardians-Reds will be delayed due to rain Wednesday

Game update: The start of Guardians-Reds will be delayed due to rain Wednesday

Royals-Cardinals postponed due to inclement weather Wednesday

Game update: Royals-Cardinals postponed due to inclement weather Wednesday

Is It Worth Attacking One of Tonight's Top Pitchers?

On a nine game slate, no offense currently reaches the double digits in our Smash% simulations, but there are some interesting teams with strong Leverage and Value% numbers. On DraftKings, the Giants currently feature a strong leveraging spot against Yu Darvish, who didn’t allow a single hit or barrel in his first start, but did walk four Diamondbacks, while striking out only three of 22 batters. Darvish also suffered through a horrendous mid-season slump last year. In fact, LHBs have a .305 wOBA against him since last year that’s nearly league average. Brandon Belt (167 wRC+, .342 IS0) and Brandon Crawford (153 wRC+, .235 ISO) have both smashed RHP since the start of last season and both are fairly expensive on DK (though much less on FD), which should keep their ownership numbers down. Mike Yastrzemski (121 wRC+, .270 ISO) is much cheaper.

Along with the Giants, the Blue Jays and Royals look like strong leverage spots on FanDuel. Nestor Cortes came out of nowhere to establish himself as a key member of the Yankee rotation with a 20.1 K-BB% after being thrust into a starting role mid-season. Concern about repeating that performance starts with just a 9.8 SwStr% in that role last year, along with a 25.5 GB% and 85.2 LOB%. Toronto is expected to stack the lineup RH against Cortes (RHBs .283 wOBA) with each of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer and Bo Bichette exceeding a 150 wRC+ and .200 ISO against LHP since last season. Getting this lineup at low ownership seems like a steal.

The Royals present an interesting case. Remember, with leverage, we don’t expect to succeed very often, but when we do, the cash should flow in to more than make up for the failures. Dakota Hudson (2-3 IP this spring) worked his way back from Tommy John surgery at the very end of last season, but has totaled just 47.2 innings since 2019. He’s an extreme ground baller (57.6 GB%), but has produced strikeout (18.1%) and walk rates (11.3%) far worse than the league average through 249.2 career innings. He also has a near 50 point platoon split with LHBs owning a .323 wOBA against him. Another key here is that Kansas City bats are cheap. Andrew Benintendi (109 wRC+, .175 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is their only above average hitter against lefties, but with Hudson’s control issues, Bobby Witt Jr. ($2.5K or less) or Carlos Santana ($2.9K or less) could both pay off with a couple of walks and a run scored.

Potentially Under-valued Lineup Facing Former All-Star

Your eyes have to drop down to nearly the middle of the board before seeing the Dodgers currently at 4.8 implied runs with seven teams ahead of them. This is a bit perplexing for such a dominant lineup against a pitcher who was, at one time, an All-Star, but hasn’t had an ERA below four since 2015. Of course, Chris Archer has been injured for much of that time, but that doesn’t exactly get him off the hook today. Archer has thrown just 19.1 innings since the end of the 2019 season, in which RHBs have actually been over 100 points better against him by both wOBA (.363) and xwOBA (.401). That’s an extremely small sample, but even if it were to hold true, it wouldn’t really matter to the Dodgers because they specialize in RHBs who handle same-handed pitching awfully well. Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Will Smith all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .165 ISO vs RHP since the start of last season. As far as projections go (PlateIQ), Betts and Trea Turner are the top overall bats, while Max Muncy (128 wRC+, .265 ISO) costs only $3.1K on FanDuel, serving as the top lineup value on that site.

RHBs Have a .387 wOBA Against This Pitcher Since Last Year

Patrick Corbin wasn’t awful in his first start, against the Mets (4 IP – 2 R – 2 BB – 4 K) and the Braves had just a 93 wRC+ vs LHP last year, despite a predominantly right-handed lineup. Yet, Atlanta is still just one of two teams with a run total above five runs tonight. Last year, Corbin produced a 5.62 ERA with a 4.29 xFIP his only estimator below four and a half. His strikeout rate dropped to 19% last year and 22.6% of his fly balls left the yard for a career high 37 dingers allowed. RHBs have a .387 wOBA against Corbin since last year. The Braves are the early Smash% favorite in LineupHQ and several of their hitters project near the top of the board (PlateIQ), including Ozzie Albies, who’s mashed LHP since last year (142 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna, who has not in a smaller sample (70 wRC+, .154 ISO). However, Ozuna is a relatively cheap bat in the middle of a highly regarded lineup tonight. If you’re looking for even more value for your Atlanta stack, you might want to consider starting at the bottom on DraftKings, as Orlando Arcia (86 wRC+) is the top point per dollar value, aside from Ozuna. On FanDuel, it’s Adam Duvall (.182 ISO) at $2.9K. The Brewers, Cardinals, Yankees, Astros and Angels are also around five implied runs, while the Rangers join the Braves at the top of the board above five.

Middle of the Board Loaded with High Upside Arms

The middle of the board offers a few interesting high upside arms, who are in different situations than they were last year. Particularly, Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb are now pitching for particularly analytically inclined teams (though the Yankees couldn’t fix the former last season). Heaney struck out 26.9% of the batters he faced last year, but allowed 29 home runs in just 129.2 innings. This is not a new phenomenon, but simply the story of his career. Still, there was nearly a two run difference between his ERA (5.83) and SIERA (3.84). Even his worst estimator (4.85 FIP) was a run better than his actual results. The Twins have some potent RHBs with Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa both healthy. PlateIQ projections are pretty high on the Dodger staff finding the problem, as Heaney is currently one of the top projected pitchers on the slate.

Cobb rescued his career pitching for the Angels last year. He struck out a career high 24.9% with a 53.3 GB% and allowed just 4.2% Barrels/BBE. His 3.76 ERA was within half a run of all his non-FIP estimators. The Giants would probably be quite happy with those results, but there have been reports that his velocity was up to 97 mph this spring after averaging four mph less last year. Should he be able to hold that through the season or at least part of it, things could become exciting in San Francisco again this year. Even if he holds it tonight, Cobb could be a great value for less than $7K. The Padres have just an 87 wRC+ on the young season.

Patrick Sandoval (3-4.2) saw an early end to his 2021 season and has already had his first start of this season pushed back a few days, but struck out 25.9% of batters and even that doesn’t tell the complete story, as he established a 15.2 SwStr% with 51.1% of his contact on the ground with an 85.3 mph EV. He was a bit wild (9.9 BB%) and 21% of his fly balls did leave the yard, but his 3.62 ERA was within half a run of all his estimators. He faces a Miami lineup he should be able to handle today. On the opposing side, Jesus Luzardo has a live arm, but just didn’t have the results last season, though he did finish up the season striking out 16 of his last 38 batters with just two walks. On the season, an 11 BB%, 17.7 HR/FB and 10.1% Barrels/BBE did him in, despite an impressive 13.2 SwStr%. Some still believe there’s a path to stardom here, but there are some things that need to be fixed as even his best estimator was a 4.72 SIERA. Seven batters in the projected Angels lineup exceed a 22.5 K% vs LHP since last season.

For those looking to drop a cheap secondary arm into your pitching spot on DraftKings, splitting the year between rotation and bullpen last year, Kuhl was done in by a 12% walk rate that had his 4.82 ERA within half a run of all of his estimators. However, as the lowest priced arm on DraftKings ($5.2K), he may be playable in GPPs simply due to the situation. Texas is a somewhat neutral park with a pitcher friendly umpiring situation. Daniel Lynch costs slightly more ($5.5K) and failed to come close to the prospect hype last season. His 5.69 ERA sits between estimators ranging from a 4.82 FIP (11.0 HR/FB) to a 6.95 DRA and 6.32 xERA (90.7 mph EV, 10.4% Barrels/BBE) and the Cardinals smoked LHP last season (115 wRC+), but it’s another power suppressing park and he was/is a highly regarded prospect.

Unexpected Arms in the Upper Price Range

Yu Darvish is the only pitcher to reach the $10K mark on either site tonight with a price tag sitting at $10.1K on DraftKings. Three more reach $9K on either site, but none on both. Darvish did not answer many questions by opening the season with six no-hit innings in Arizona where he didn’t even allow a single barrel and experienced a slight velocity bump from last season because he struck out just three of 22 batters, while walking four and then the D’Backs were nearly no-hit the next night too. Even amid a massive mid-season slump last season, Darvish finished with a 22.7 K-BB% and estimators about half a run below his 4.22 ERA. This lineup will certainly be a tougher test for him, but San Francisco is a pitcher friendly park and the umpiring situation may be favorable as well. That said, Darvish projects to be popular tonight, so perhaps a fade is in order.

Dakota Hudson costs $9.5K on FanDuel and this seems erroneous, as he’s more than $3K less on DraftKings. Hudson (2-3 IP this spring) worked his way back from Tommy John surgery at the very end of last season, but has totaled just 47.2 innings since 2019. He’s an extreme ground baller (57.6 GB%), but has produced strikeout (18.1%) and walk rates (11.3%) far worse than the league average through 249.2 career innings. He also has a near 50 point platoon split with LHBs owning a .323 wOBA against him. It’s tough to recommend him even at the lower price tag.

Luis Garcia is $9.4K on DraftKings ($800 less on FD). He broke out with a 26.4 K% (16.5 K-BB%) and 3.48 ERA in 2021. Most estimators were slightly above that, but adding in the contact profile generates an even better 3.27 xERA. The only negative is that Garcia only got through six innings nine times last year, having some issues the third time through the order. This is a terrific spot against an Arizona offense that had just a 79 wRC+ vs RHP last year. If he’s on his game, he has a chance to be tonight’s top pitcher. Early projections (PlateIQ) aren’t quite as high on him, but that can change before game time.

Eric Lauer costs $9.1K on DraftKings and nearly $2K less on FanDuel. First response may be to ignore him at this cost, but he showed increased velocity in his last spring start and the Orioles have pushed the fence up and back, making it much tougher on RHBs. Lauer had a 3.19 ERA that was about a run below estimators last year, due to a .249 BABIP and 79.4 LOB%. He has the makings of a solid back end starter with a 23.9 K% and 8.4 BB%. Oddly, Lauer currently projects for around 20% ownership on DK even with the price hike.

The Strong Lineup That Nobody's Expected to Own Tonight

Using the Stack tool in LineupHQ, we’re seeing some amazing numbers pop for the Seattle Mariners on DraftKings this afternoon. Their 11.5 Smash% gives them a top five offense in our PlateIQ simulations, but they are currently the bottom team with a 0% stacking projection. Not only are they a top three projected value (11.5%), but their non-existent projected ownership gives them the highest leverage potential on the board tonight (10.0). The lack of interest is a bit surprising, considering how much Dylan Bundy struggled last year. Though his 6.06 ERA was well above his estimators, Bundy produced just a 12.6 K-BB% and allowed 10.3% Barrels/BBE (19.2 HR/FB). None of his estimators dipped below four and a half. Batters from either side of the plate were above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him last year. This is a pretty solid Seattle lineup with the addition of Jesse Winker (177 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Adam Frazier (115 wRC+) to go along with Mitch Haniger (110 wRC+, .218 ISO) and top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez, the latter also the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings with a price tag of just $2K.

The leverage projection is a bit lower on FanDuel, where Mariners are expected to be a bit more popular and no team really stands out, but the Blue Jays are top of the board with a 12.3 Smash% and under 10% ownership, which gives them a solid 4.1 Leverage projection. Some would consider Jameson Taillon simply returning and starting 29 games last year a major triumph. As to his effectiveness, it was a mixed bag of ups and downs that rounded out to a league average season with a 4.33 ERA (15.9 K-BB%) that was within half a run of all estimators. He had only a 12 point split with batters from either side of the plate a bit above a .300 wOBA against him, basically league average. George Springer (136 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP since last year) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (171 wRC+, .303 ISO) are the big bats here with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (110 wRC+, .194 ISO) costing less than $4K on either site.