DFS Alerts

Looking at a Pair of Rookie Starters on Friday

Reid Detmers is the top prospect for the Angels (via Fangraphs), moving pretty quickly through the minors last season (just 62 innings with a strikeout rate above one-third of batters) after being drafted in 2020. He did struggle to a 7.9 K-BB% over five major league starts (20.2 IP) and 11.6% Barrels/BBE, but also had an 11.6 SwStr%. He struck out 11 in 5.2 spring innings. While his Fangraphs scouting report doesn’t see a ton of further upside, it does suggest he’s ready to be a mid-rotation contributor this year. The contact prone Astros had a 117 wRC+ vs RHP last year. This will be a very difficult spot for the rookie.

Reiver Sanmartin made his major league debut last season with two starts after splitting his 82.1 AAA innings between the pen and rotation with an impressive 25.9 K% (19.2 K-BB%). However, his Fangraphs player page gives him a 35 Future Value grade without a prospect ranking within the organization. Sanmartin covered just four innings over two spring starts. We’re likely to see a lot of bullpen in this one. This should be a decent spot to expect an Atlanta bounce back. Despite owning the highest implied run line on the slate currently (5.19), Atlanta bats don’t project to be over-owned at this point. Ozzie Albies was much more efficient from the right-side last year (144 wRC+, .262 ISO).

Brewers-Cubs postponed due to inclement weather Friday

Game update: Brewers-Cubs postponed due to inclement weather Friday

Rare Five Game Friday Slate with a Clear Top Arm

A rare five game Friday night slate awaits daily fantasy players tonight, but that’s early April for you. Of the 10 available starters, just one reaches the $10K price point on either site and Max Scherzer does so on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Shooting right out of the gate like it was mid-season with five and six innings pitched in his two spring starts, Scherzer struck out 12 in 11 innings pitched. The bad news was that this start had been in doubt until very recently due to a hamstring issue, as the injuries are beginning to pile up on his nearly 38 year old frame. Yet, if we ignore the injury potential, Scherzer is a no-brainer because the stuff still dominates (34.1 K%, 5.2 BB%). A 3.24 xFIP was his lone estimator above three last year. The Nationals had just a 96 wRC+ vs RHP last year and that’s unlikely to improve much this year. Batters from either side were held below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against him. In addition, the Mets had one of the better defenses in the league last year (+17 Runs Prevented). Ignoring the possibility of an early injury exit, Scherzer is the top pitcher on the board tonight, although early ownership projections also expect him to be treated as such. The other piece of relevant information here is that this is the only game on the board with any delay risk, though not significant.

Charlie Morton excelled in his return to Atlanta last season (28.6 K%, 4.9% Barrels/BBE) with a 3.53 SIERA being his worst estimator, but his post-season ended almost immediately with a broken leg. Morton made one start this spring, but was a single out away from competing five innings and shouldn’t be too limited here. The Reds had a 105 wRC+ vs RHP, but gone are Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos, so we can probably expect something a bit less this year. They also had just an 89 wRC+ away from home. Morton had almost no split with batters from either side of the plate below a .285 wOBA and xwOBA last year. He’s expected to be the second most popular pitcher tonight with a top four price tag on either site.

Josiah Gray is a cheap secondary option, as he exhibited swing and miss stuff beyond his 24.8 K% over 70.2 IP last year (14.3 SwStr%). However, everything else was a problem. He walked 10.7% of the batters he faced and when batters made contact, it was only on the ground 30.8% of the time and left the park 18.6% of the time when in the air. He was barreled up on 12.2% of the contact he allowed. Jon Gray struck out 10 in six spring training innings, mostly on a new, reworked slider that’s been hyped. Last year, he had a 4.59 ERA that was about a half run above most of his estimators. He has to face the mighty Blue Jays (111 wRC+ vs RHP last year) in Toronto though. His low price tag may make a strong value none the less, but also a popular one.

Jose Berrios had slightly better peripherals post-trade (22.3 K-BB%) than prior (19.2%). The 26.1 K% was a career high with an ERA and estimators in the mid-threes. The Rangers should improve their 86 wRC+ vs RHP last year. Berrios had a nearly 100 point split by wOBA and more than 40 by xwOBA as well in 2021. The Texas lineup projects to be somewhat balanced, making this a decent matchup for Berrios. Sean Manaea quietly had a very strong season for the A’s last year, exceeding a 20 K-BB (20.3%) with a 3.91 ERA that was within one-third of a run of all his estimators. There was some concern about a drop in velocity this spring, but that seemed to rectify in his post-trade outing. Manaea did have a fairly sizeable split, more than 50 points by wOBA and xwOBA last year. He’s an interesting arm tonight with a low enough ownership projection on a slate this small, facing a projected lineup that includes several rookies and was nearly no-hit last night until the San Diego bullpen imploded.

Might This Stack Provide the Most Value on Opening Day?

Chaotic weather forecasts have changed a number of thing since yesterday, particularly in the early games. A quick glance at Weather Edge (for Premium subscribers) confirms that many of the parks in play today have never even seen weather circumstances like today. Team run totals have dropped substantially, with the Brewers (5.15) now the only team reaching five implied runs. The Braves (4.88) and Padres (4.79) the only other ones even substantially above four and a half.

An often underutilized tool in LineupHQ is Team Smash%, which can be found under Player Pool and Stacks tabs. The numbers combine ownership projections along with thousands of simulations to forecast not only which stacks have the best chance of producing success, but which ones may have the most value and leverage. For example, today on DraftKings, the Padres are expected to be the most popular stack, though the Mets project to come through more often via simulations. However, on a value basis, the Diamondbacks project best. Remember, Yu Darvish was very hittable in the second half of the season last year. In an 11 start stretch beginning in July, Darvish allowed 17 of his 28 home runs and 21 of his 38 barrels. The signs may even have been there earlier with a velocity reduction and drop in swinging strike rate from the year before that wasn’t really affecting his bottom line early on.

The only team to offer more leverage than the Diamondbacks are the Pirates, who must face Adam Wainwright and the best defense in the league under cold and wet conditions in a pitcher’s park. However, the wind is blowing out strongly to right and if the Bucs do pop off, Pittsburgh stacks are likely to be fairly rare today. However, for large GPP players, while many players are expected to lean towards San Diego bats, perhaps Ketel Marte (112 wRC+ vs RHP last year) and company is the superior tactic. Do note though, that these numbers can change throughout the day as more information becomes available.

A Lineup Worth Paying Up For on Opening Day

The Milwaukee Brewers currently have the highest implied run line on the board (5.98) on Opening Day. In fact, they are the only team that exceeds five runs and are only on the main FanDuel slate. For DraftKings players, the Braves (against Tyler Mahle) and Padres (against Madison Bumgarner) are right at five runs. Unsurprisingly, four of the six highest projected ownership percentages among batters belong to San Diego Padres in LineupHQ, as this should be a pretty strong spot against a pitcher who allowed RHBs a .323 wOBA last season and the Padres should be better than their 94 wRC+ against southpaws last year, even without Fernando Tatis. Luke Voit (111 wRC+ vs LHP last year) and Wil Myers (126 wRC+) project as top point per dollar plays (PlateIQ projections), though nobody in the projected lineup reached a .200 ISO against lefties last year.

The Braves project for lower ownership numbers, likely due to their higher price tags with Marcell Ozuna being the exception in both cost and ownership projection. Alex Dickerson (92 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP last year) projects as a top point per dollar value. Tyler Mahle had a reverse split last year (RHBs .357 wOBA, LHBs .257), but including Dickerson in stacks could help differentiate your lineup with more Atlanta hitters, which shouldn’t be too difficult to afford due to a lack of high priced pitching.

RHBs Belted This Opening Day Starter Last Year (.387 wOBA)

Assuming weather cooperates, RH Mets should be at the top of daily fantasy player shopping lists on Thursday. Patrick Corbin has seen three straight years of decline in his estimators and ERA since signing with Washington, but since he was starting from such a high point, it took a while to get to the point of absolute absurdity last year with a 5.82 ERA, 4.61 SIERA and 5.62 xERA. His 11.9 K-BB% was not terrible, but nearly a quarter of his fly balls (22.6%) left the yard and RHBs destroyed him (.387 wOBA). The Mets had just an 85 wRC+ vs LHP last year, despite Pete Alonso’s 137 wRC+ and .325 ISO against them. However, they imported several RHBs into their starting lineup this year (Mark Canha, Starling Marte, Eduardo Esobar). Escobar had the most success against southpaws last year of the three (129 wRC+, .242 ISO). Using PlateIQ projections in LineupHQ, Alonso and Marte project as top overall bats, while J.D. Davis is currently a top three point per dollar play on DraftKings, behind only Bobby Witt Jr. and Hoy Park.

The Shiny New Toys Projected to Debut on Thursday

One of the positive aspects of the new collective bargaining agreement is that it discourages the gaming of service time, resulting in some shiny new toys expected to debut on Opening Day. Bobby Witt Jr., Seiya Suzuki, Diego Castillo, Steven Kwan and Jeremy Pena are all projected to be in their teams’ lineups on Thursday, many of them pummeling spring pitching after excelling at AAA last season. Just as importantly none of them even reach $2.5K on either site currently.

Bobby Witt Jr. is the biggest name here, the pre-season Rookie of the Year favorite. Witt wrecked AA and AAA last year with a wRC+ above 140, 33 home runs and 29 stolen bases. He had six extra-base hits in 32 ABs this spring. Witt has a very tough assignment against Shane Bieber though, against whom RHBs have just a .258 career wOBA. Suzuki doesn’t fit the mold of the other names, coming over from Japan, he has projections ranging from a 107 wRC+ to a 142 wRC+ on his Fangraphs player page, but has an even tougher matchup against Corbin Burnes and is only available on the FanDuel slate.

Diego Castillo (146 wRC+ in 70 AAA PAs last year) made the club after homering six times in 35 ABs this spring. The Pirates will start in St Louis, facing Adam Wainwright against whom batters from either side were within two points of a .300 xwOBA last year, which doesn’t sound great, but Statcast doesn’t consider that St Louis had the best defense in the league last year, which helped Wainwright beat his estimators by over half a run last year and could do so again this year.

Kwan is coming off a 159 wRC+ and AA and 144 wRC+ at AAA last season in 341 combined PAs (12 HRs, 6 SBs). He also tore it up with a 1.031 OPS in camp this spring. While Father Time has been gaining on the opposing pitcher, Zack Greinke, he exhibited a large platoon split with just a .245 wOBA and .278 xwOBA against LHBs last year. Pena (126 wRC+ at AAA last season) will take Correa’s place at Shortstop, but is projected to bat near the bottom of the order against Shohei Ohtani (RHBs .245 wOBA, .252 xwOBA last year). None of these young talents has an easy path on Thursday, but the level of talent at such low price points may dictate some exposure to them on Opening Day.

Pitcher Workloads May Be an Issue in Early April

We’re already handicapped by a lack of information on Opening Day, having to rely on last season’s statistics and a few relevant spring training notes. Add in a shortened spring training, which will likely hinder pitcher workloads the first time or two through rotation and chaotic April weather to the obstacles facing daily fantasy players on Opening Day 2022.

FanDuel is offering a full day seven game main slate on Thursday, while DraftKings will start at 4pm ET and offer six. The difference being the Brewers and Cubs at Wrigley on FanDuel. Where players have the option, Corbin Burnes is the top pitcher on the board, despite his high cost. Burnes is the reigning NL Cy Young winner despite throwing just 167 innings last season, speaking to how dominant he was, striking out 35.6% of the batters he faced with a 16.6 SwStr%, both best on the board today. He had just one estimators (2.61 SIERA) slightly above his 2.43 ERA and allowed just 3.1% Barrels/BBE on the season. Burnes has already completed six innings this spring as well.

That last point is a huge deal, as Patrick Corbin, Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner are the only other Opening Day pitchers to have completed five innings in a start this spring. That may make Adam Wainwright the arm to own on DraftKings, costing just $7.5K against the Pirates (75 wRC+ on the road, 85 wRC+ vs RHP last year) in what is the most negative run environment on the board over the last three years. Shane Bieber is the highest upside arm left (33.1 K%, 3.17 ERA, 3.21 SIERA, 3.76 xERA in 16 2022 starts), but only pitched 1.1 and 3.1 innings in his two spring starts, although we don’t know if pitchers are further ramping up on the side. Bieber and Ohtani are the only other pitchers above $10K on FanDuel, while nobody reaches that price point on DraftKings. Bieber costs just $8.3K on DK, while Ohtani only pitched 2.1 and 3.1 innings in his two spring starts and starts in a very tough spot against the Astros (20 K% vs RHP last year).

Two lower priced arms to consider are Tyler Megill or J.T. Brubaker in your secondary slots on DraftKings. Both 2021 rookies showed some strikeout upside (Megill 26.1%, Brubaker 24%) with home run issues late in the year. Brubaker will open in a power suppressing park in St Louis, while Megill will face a light lineup in Washington. Megill is currently projected for the lower ownership rate in LineupHQ. Make sure to watch out for Kevin’s Opening Day forecast with potential rain issues in Washington though.

30 Humidors For 30 Parks

At the end of March, news was broken that MLB will employ humidors in all 30 parks this season. Like most Manfred regime innovations, it’s an imperfect solution to a problem that doesn’t exist, but at least they’re telling everyone up front this year. In recent seasons, the league covertly placed humidors in several stadiums, including Boston, Seattle and New York (NL) in 2020 and then Houston, Miami, Texas and St Louis last year. Colorado and Arizona had previously been using the technology.

What does this mean? The intention is to close the gap on park, or more accurately, environmental effects, bringing everything closer to neutral. Less park to park variance. Although park factors will certainly still exist, we may have to take previously existing ones with a grain of salt for a while until the new norms are established.

What this also means is that Colorado bats could become even more valuable. As other parks trend back towards the middle (think of it as regression), Coors has used the humidor for years, longer than any other MLB park, and is still an extreme offensive environment. It’s one park we can be sure won’t be affected by the changes occurring in most others this season.

More Than One-Third of This Pitcher's Runs Were Surrendered to This Offense

While Anthony DeSclafani did struggle against the Dodgers this year (22 of his 61 runs allowed), he did toss quality starts in two of his last three starts against them and finished the season strong with a 2.25 ERA and 2.58 FIP over his last six starts (32 IP). DeSclafani rode good control (6.2 BB%) and a league average strikeout rate (22.5%) to estimators ranging from a 3.59 DRA to a 4.10 SIERA, but only exceeded five innings pitched in three of his last 11 starts and also has not pitched since October 1st. The Dodgers had a 117 wRC+ at home and 107 wRC+ vs RHP this year with only one batter in the projected lineup above a 20.1 K% vs RHP. DeSclafani is the cheapest currently confirmed pitcher on DraftKings though ($7.6K) with his team in a position to end the series tonight and Dodger Stadium is likely the most pitcher friendly park on the slate with the help of some cooler temperatures, though not nearly as pitcher friendly as last night with the wind holding everything in the air up.

As usual, DeSclafani exhibited a substantial split this year (LHBs .301 wOBA, .335 xwOBA) – RHBs .252 wOBA, .271 xwOBA). Luckily for him, the Dodgers are light on quality LHBs at the moment with Muncy injured and Cody Bellinger (61 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP) falling off a cliff. In fact, Corey Seager (147 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Matt Beaty (111 wRC+, .130 ISO) the only other LHBs projected, although every RHB exceeds a 120 wRC+ vs RHP this year with at least a .170 ISO.

While Tony Gonsolin actually increased his rookie season strikeout rate a full point this year (27.2%), he also nearly quadrupled his walk rate (14.2%), resulting in the Dodgers allowing him to record sixth inning outs in only two outings this year. An 86.2 LOB% generated a 3.23 ERA that was well below estimators, although a 3.68 xERA was also more than half a run below any other estimator. After missing the month of August, Gonsolin did return to walk eight of his last 81 batters in September, but has not pitched yet in the month of October. Gonsolin would be the cheapest pitcher on the board once the Dodgers confirm him, but the Giants have a 110 wRC+ vs RHP. As far as strikeouts go, half the lineup exceeded a 22.5 K% vs RHP this year.

Every batter in the projected San Francisco lineup has at least a 99 wRC+ and .169 ISO vs RHP this season. Mike Yastrzemski (125 wRC+, .278 ISO) could be the most interesting bat here, should he bat second again. Brandon Crawford (156 wRC+, .241 ISO) and LaMonte Wade (130 wRC+, .251 ISO) have also displayed great power numbers with a platoon advantage this year. The Giants (3.39) are the only team on the board below four implied runs though.

Cheap on DraftKings on Three Days Rest

Eric Lauer firmly established himself as a capable back end of the rotation starter this year. In fact, his 23.9 K% has helped project estimators in a tight range between 3.92 (xERA) and 4.26 (xFIP) that suggest even a league average pitcher. The actual ERA was quite a bit lower (3.19), due to a .249 BABIP and 79.4 LOB%. It has been 11 days since he last pitched though. With the Braves owning a 93 wRC+ vs LHP, Lauer could be considered an option today, especially on DraftKings for less than $8K. However, the leash is sure to be short with the Brewers facing elimination and only three batters in the projected Atlanta lineup exceed a 20.7 K% vs LHP this year.

While RHBs had a .278 wOBA and .300 xwOBA against Lauer this year, LHBs were actually better (.285, .309), although Freddie Freeman (103 wRC+, .170 ISO vs LHP) is the only projected LHB in the Atlanta lineup tonight. The Braves are the only team to reach 4.5 implied runs tonight in the most naturally positive run environment on the slate. Freeman and Ozzie Albies (144 wRC+, .262 ISO) may be two of the top bats on the slate, while Jorge Soler (126 wRC+, .287 ISO) costs less than $4K on DraftKings. Travis d’Arnaud (127 wRC+, .179 ISO) is barely more than the minimum on FanDuel.

Charlie Morton struck out nine of 23 Brewers in Game One, but is on three days rest and was a late announcement to start Game Four instead of Huascar Ynoa. It’s fair to question how far the Braves will let a 37 year old pitcher go in this spot, but they’re looking to lay the hammer down with a chance to clinch and then rest for an extra few days. Morton is also just the fourth most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($7.8K) in a favorable spot (Brewers 92 wRC+ vs RHP), although only three batters in the projected Milwaukee lineup exceed a 21.3 K% vs RHP this season.

Brewer bats are tough to roster here with batters from either side of the plate between a .255 and .281 wOBA and xwOBA against Morton this season. However, Rowdy Tellez is the only projected batter below a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Willy Adames (124 wRC+, .221 ISO) is the best Milwaukee bat. Kolten Wong (108 wRC+, .182 ISO) may be the best value. One positive we can say about Milwaukee bats here is that they are cheap.

Unexpected Off Day Allows for Pitching Upgrade

Lance McCullers pitched exactly six innings in six straight starts to end the season. Positives include a 27 K%, 56.4 GB%, 5.8% Barrels/BBE and second best defense in the league behind him (34 Runs Prevented). The biggest negative is an 11.1 BB%. His 3.16 ERA was slightly below estimators ranging from a 3.16 xERA to a 4.01 SIERA that was 0.32 points above any of his remaining estimators. He struck out just four of 24 White Sox in game one, but without a walk (one hit batter) and did not allow a run over 6.2 innings with 12 ground balls (63.2%). The White Sox have a 118 wRC at home and 108 wRC+ vs RHP with actual lineup strikeout rates ranging from 20.1% to 25.1% vs RHP this year. McCullers should probably be considered the top pitcher tonight, working on regular rest with his team in position to put the series away, although weather conditions (12 mph wind out to LF) may turn this into a more hitter friendly environment.

Should you not choose to employ McCullers in your lineups, the White Sox are actually tied for the second highest implied run line on the board (4.25) with LHBs (.311 wOBA, .306 xwOBA) faring much better than RHBs (.256 wOBA, .261 xwOBA) against him. Each of the first seven in the Chicago order today exceeded a 115 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Yasmani Grandal (150 wRC+, .279 ISO) had the best season, but drops a spot to fifth in the order today. Luis Robert (135 wRC+, .179 ISO) might be the most interesting RHB with Gavin Sheets (143 wRC+, .289 ISO) costing just $3.1K or less on either site.

Aside from 117 wRC+ (18.3 K%) vs LHP this year (113 wRC+ on the road) we have to be concerned about the sore shoulder that Carlos Rodon has been dealing with. He missed a couple of weeks in August and then was used more sparingly in September, but did have a 27.2 K% (20.7 K-BB%) after returning. However, he hasn’t reached the 90 pitch mark since his first start after the All-Star break. The leash certainly won’t be long today in an elimination game, but if we get the early season, healthy version of Rodon, it could be a dominant five innings, which would have made him a somewhat interesting GPP play on DraftKings ($8.8K), where you have to select two of the six pitchers. A 3.17 xFIP was his only estimator above three this year. Six batters in the projected Houston lineup have a strikeout rate below 15% vs LHP this year, but two of the remaining three exceed 30%.

Batters from either side of the plate were between a .231 and .260 wOBA and xwOBA against Rodon this year. Martin Maldonado (86 wRC+) and Michael Brantley (59 wRC+) are the only two projected batters below a 115 wRC+ vs LHP this season for Houston. Jake Meyers (144 wRC+, .268 ISO) is just above the minimum on either site. The Astros are tied with the White Sox for the second highest team total on the board (4.25 runs).

Recent Struggles & Overwhelming Ownership Expectation Could Merit Top Pitcher Fade

We can probably consider both environment and umpiring (Ted Barrett) to be neutral at Dodger Stadium tonight. Winds are expected to be nearly 20 mph, but blowing from left to right, rather than in or out. This actually may make it the most pitcher friendly environment on the slate. Alex Wood finished the season strong with no more than two runs in any of his last six starts, but just two quality starts, as he was held under 82 pitches in each of his last four. It’s hard to quantify the season as anything other than a major success, striking out 26% of batters (19.3 K-BB%) with 50.8% of his contact on the ground. Despite the great defense (22 Runs Prevented), Wood’s 3.83 ERA was above, but within half a run of all of his estimators. The Dodgers had a 104 wRC vs LHP, but a 117 wRC+ and 17.3 HR/FB at home. Nobody in the projected lineup exceeds a 21.1 K% vs LHP this season. This is a tough spot for Wood, but considering you essentially have to select 40% of the reasonably usable pitchers on DraftKings today, he’s fine at $7.8K.

Should you not choose that patch, the Dodgers have a 4.46 implied run line that’s tied for third on an eight team board, while Wood had virtually no split this year with batters from either side of the plate between a .296 and .304 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Trea Turner (201 wRC+, .320 ISO vs LHP) is your top Dodger bat. Corey Seager (147 wRC+, .217 ISO) hit LHP very well and may be a contrarian play here. Albert Pujols (146 wRC+, .309 ISO) costs $2.1K on either site.

Max Scherzer had a 34.1 K% (15.9 SwStr%) this year and probably has the longest of leashes today. Everyone, absolutely EVERY ONE, will likely have him in their lineups tonight, especially on DraftKings, for less than $10K. There is no question that he’s the top pitcher on the board. However, we can find some merit for a fade, starting with those ridiculous expected ownership rates. Scherzer also did allow 11 runs (10 earned) over his last two regular season starts (10.1 IP) and was not extraordinarily sharp in the wild card game. In fact, he’s struck out just 14 of his last 70 batters (exactly 20%) including the wild card game. With a .247 BABIP and 84.3 LOB%, his 2.46 ERA this season was about half a run below estimators ranging from a 2.88 DRA to a 3.24 xFIP. Unlike his opponent, Scherzer does not benefit from a great defense behind him (-3 Runs Prevented).

That the Giants have a 3.04 run team total that’s a full run below any other team on the board is no surprise, but as mentioned, Scherzer hasn’t been his sharpest recently and the reward from a San Francisco lineup explosion would probably be worth the risk in GPPs, though batters from either side of the plate were below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against Scherzer this year. Nobody in the projected San Francisco lineup was below a 99 wRC+ or .169 ISO vs RHP this season and if you’re stacking Giants, you’re probably not concerned with price because you’re also foregoing the only really expensive pitcher. Brandon Crawford (156 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP) is the top bat here with LaMonte Wade (130 wRC+, .251 ISO) and Mike Yastrzemski (125 wRC+, .278 ISO) holding a large power advantage over the rest of the lineup.

Catcher with Video Game Numbers Against Left-Handed Pitching

Despite a slight negative weather effect, according to Weather Edge, Fenway Park is still the most hitter friendly run environment on the board, although Ron Kulpa is considered the most pitcher friendly umpire on the slate.

The Rays are throwing the bullpen at the Red Sox in an elimination game today. It will begin with Collin McHugh, who reached a maximum three innings pitched seven times this year, none in his seven starts. Boston is tied with Tampa Bay atop the board with a team total of 4.75 runs, probably more due to the environment than anything else, as Tampa Bay has an elite bullpen and defense. That said, Kyle Schwarber (157 wRC+, .359 ISO vs RHP) and Rafael Devers (152 wRC+, .341 ISO) are the top bats here, though Kike Hernandez (99 wRC+, .179 ISO) has been a hitting machine in this series.

The .363 BABIP (.380 at home) and 68.9 LOB% notwithstanding, Eduardo Rodriguez finished with a 4.74 ERA that was nearly a run above his worst estimator (3.80 DRA) behind a 20.4 K-BB% and 86.5 mph EV. He will be going on short rest (three days), but only faced nine batters in Game One, striking out just one. Alex Cora has shown the ability to be aggressive and creative with his pitching in this series, which doesn’t portend well for Rodriguez’s workload in this game. There’s also the fact that the Rays had a 107 wRC+ vs LHP this year and that may even understates it with Wander Franco and Nelson Cruz joining the team after the All-Star break. That said, ERod costs just $6.5K on DraftKings and you may only have five realistic choices, should the forecast in Chicago be accurate. Five batters in the projected Tampa Bay lineup exceed a 25 K% vs LHP.

While Rodriguez had exactly a 20 point split with RHBs owning a .334 wOBA against him this year, Statcast brought both sides down to within a single point of a .290 xwOBA. Tampa Bay bats look really strong here, especially considering their affordability. Wander Franco smashed LHP after being called up (181 wRC+, .245 ISO), while Mike Zunino put up video game numbers (243 wRC+, .526 ISO). Randy Arozarena (153 wRC+, .233 ISO) is the most expensive batter in the lineup, but is still reasonably priced.

Massive Weather Concerns in This Game

The most important thing to say about this game is that it stands a decent chance of not even being played today and currently seems a near lock for some sort of interruption, according to the weather forecast. Otherwise, there’s the small matter of near 20 mph winds blasting in from right field. Weather Edge does not currently see that as a hindrance to overall offense, but the sample size is extremely small. In the interest of being complete anyway…

Jose Urquidy missed the entire months of July and August, registering only a 20 K% (15 K-BB%) after returning for six starts in September. With a .237 BABIP this year, he ran a 3.62 ERA that was quite a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.87 to a 4.53 DRA, but that’s also partially the product of a great defense (34 Runs Prevented via Statcast). The White Sox had a 108 wRC vs RHP this year, but a 118 wRC+ with a 11.5 K-BB% and 17 HR/FB at home. Everyone in the projected Chicago lineup exceeds a 20 K% vs RHP, but none are above 25.1% this year.

Urquidy had a 61 point reverse split this year, 28 points by xwOBA (RHBs .308 wOBA, .314 xwOBA). While every RHB in the projected Chicago lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+, none exceed a .200 ISO. Consider Luis Robert (135 wRC+, .179 ISO), who had a 178 wRC+ since the start of September through the end of the regular season, one of the top bats on the board. Yasmani Grandal (150 wRC+, .279 ISO) homered last night and costs $2.7K on FanDuel.

Aside from 117 wRC+ (18.3 K%) vs LHP this year (113 wRC+ on the road) we have to be concerned about the sore shoulder that Carlos Rodon has been dealing with. He missed a couple of weeks in August and then was used more sparingly in September, but did have a 27.2 K% (20.7 K-BB%) after returning. However, he hasn’t reached the 90 pitch mark since his first start after the All-Star break. The leash certainly won’t be long today, in an elimination game, but if we get the early season, healthy version of Rodon, it could be a dominant five innings, which would have made him a somewhat interesting GPP play on DraftKings ($8.8K), had weather not been such a concern. A 3.17 xFIP was his only estimator above three this year. Six batters in the projected Houston lineup have a strikeout rate below 15% vs LHP this year, but two of the remaining three exceed 30%.

Batters from either side of the plate were between a .231 and .260 wOBA and xwOBA against Rodon this year. Martin Maldonado (86 wRC+) and Michael Brantley (59 wRC+) are the only two projected batters below a 115 wRC+ vs LHP this season for Houston. Jake Meyers (144 wRC+, .268 ISO) is just above the minimum on either site.