DFS Alerts
Trea Turner scratched Wednesday; Josh Harrison will now bat 2nd
Turner has been scratched from Wednesday’s lineup, which has led to Josh Harrison being thrown into the #2 hole. Harrison will play 2nd with Luis Garcia now handling duties at shortstop. This is a minor win for Zach Eflin, who won’t have to deal with Turner’s lethal speed.
Other tagged players: Josh Harrison
Kenta Maeda is sporting a career high 27.2 K-BB%
Kenta Maeda has been good enough to be a fringe Cy Young contender in most seasons. He’s put up a 27.2 K-BB%, while sustaining an excellent batted ball (49.7 GB%, 20.5 IFFB%) and elite contact profile (85.3 mph EV). His 2.53 ERA is a bit lower than all of his estimators (.206 BABIP, 83.3 LOB%), but a 3.05 FIP and 3.18 DRA are the only ones that exceed three. The Tigers have generally been a dream matchup for RHPs this year (80 wRC+, 20.9 K-BB%) and the lineup has only gotten weaker as the season’s gone on. Only one batter in the lineup for Detroit is above a 100 wRC+ with nobody above a .170 ISO against RHP since 2019. Maeda is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at an even $10K with the only drawback being that he’s only exceeded 94 pitches once this season and has even been below 90 in six of 10 starts. However, he’s been so efficient that he’s completed at least six innings in seven of 10 starts.
Casey Mize has been trounced by LHBs (.400+ wOBA & xwOBA)
Casey Mize has just a 9.9 K-BB% through six starts and has been held below 85 pitches in all six of his starts. Also not encouraging are the nine Barrels he’s allowed (12.2% of contact) despite only five of them leaving the yard, which still works out to a 19.2 HR/FB. His 6.08 xERA matches his actual 6.08 ERA. All other estimators are lower, but none are below five. He gets a tough assignment against the Twins (110 wRC+, 19.8 HR/FB vs RHP). Only one batter in the projected lineup is below a 100 wRC+ and only two are below a .200 ISO vs RHP since last season. LHBs have trounced Mize for a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 so far. Max Kepler has a 124 wRC+ and .282 ISO vs RHP against RHP since 2019 and costs less than $3K on FanDuel tonight. While RHBs have a .286 wOBA and 50 GB% against Mize, Statcast pulls them up to a .339 xwOBA. The Twins top the main FanDuel slate with a 5.64 implied run line tonight.
LHBs have a .379 xwOBA against Dean Kremer
Dean Kramer has struck out 20 of the 65 batters he’s faced, but with just a 9.9 SwStr%, while walking nine as well. He has to be nearly perfect to generate a high rate of whiffs as he doesn’t throw particularly hard, nor have a wipe out secondary pitch. There’s probably some regression in his strikeout rate and with a 27.8 GB% and 90 mph EV, it can become dangerous territory. Not to say he can’t improve on these aspects, but it’s a bit of a fluke that he’s not allowed a HR yet with three Barrels. The Red Sox have a 107 wRC+ vs RHP and this lineup is where players may be able to find some hidden value tonight. While batters from either side of the plate are below a .250 against Kremer in a small sample, Statcast is showing a .379 xwOBA for LHBs. Alex Verdugo (121 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2019) has a 137 wRC+ over the last 30 days and costs less than $3K on FanDuel tonight, where he could be one of the top values on the slate.
The most likely Quality Start candidate on the main slate
Kyle Hendricks is the most expensive pitcher on the main FanDuel slate ($10.6K) and while we normally don’t think of him in that manner due to lack of strikeouts, there may be enough evidence to support his price tag tonight. He struck out 10 of 27 Twins through eight shutout innings (three hits) last time out. The performance drove his strikeout rate all the way up to…21.3%. Hendricks continues to be effective as a contact manager (85.8 mph EV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE) with elite control (2.4 BB%) and has pitched into the eighth inning in three straight starts. He’s failed to complete six innings just twice this year. This matchup has Quality Start written all over it and he may be the one pitcher we can be most confident about doing that tonight. The real attraction here is the matchup though. The Pirates have a ridiculous 58 wRC+, 18.3 K-BB% and 10.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Only two batters in tonight’s projected lineup are above an 80 wRC+ over the last 30 days. This is an amazing spot for a good pitcher, who’s heavy workload should allow him to compile enough strikeouts here.
LHBs have a .368 wOBA against Jordan Lyles since 2019
Jordan Lyles has just a 3.5 K-BB% and has allowed 13 Barrels (10 HRs) in just 49.2 innings. Still, his 5.39 xERA is his most optimistic estimator, even though a 7.25 DRA is the only one that comes anywhere near his 7.07 ERA. Regardless, the difference is between being really bad or being absolutely terrible. LHBs have smashed him for a .368 wOBA (.351 xwOBA) since last season. The Arizona lineup has been through a lot of turnover due to injuries and trades, but Kole Calhoun has been a constant and a pleasant surprise for the D’Backs this season. He has a 122 wRC+ and .267 ISO against RHP since last season and a 150 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Calhoun costs $3.4K on FanDuel and is barreling 12.2% of his contact this season. Nobody else in the projected Arizona lineup is above 10%, but they are still above five implied runs in this advantageous spot.
Travis Shaw scratched Tuesday; Jonathan Davis replaces in the 9th spot
Shaw has been scratched from Tuesday’s lineup and will be replaced in the 9th spot in the batting order by Jonathan Davis. This doesn’t move the needle much but it does remove a potential HR threat from the lineup in exchange for a more light hitting Davis.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Davis Cheap middle of the order power (.321 ISO vs LHP since 2019)
Kyle Freeland has been a productive contact manager (52.6 GB%, 86.8 mph EV), but with just a 16.3 K%, he’s still allowed seven HRs. An ERA below four (3.75) is mostly the product of an elevated strand rate (78.5%). All of his estimators are at least half a run higher, but all are below five at least. The Giants have been one of the best offenses in baseball against LHP this year (125 wRC+, 19.4 HR/FB). They have the ability to stack the entire lineup with RHBs and batters from that side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Freeland since last season. In a smaller sample this year (203 PAs), they are at just a .308 wOBA though. However, considering the projected San Francisco lineup features six batters above a 125 wRC+ against LHP since last season (30 PA min.) and none cost more than $3.1K on FanDuel, there should be some value in this lineup with the largest portion of it potentially coming from the bat of Darin Ruf (145 wRC+, .321 ISO), who costs just $2.4K and has a 186 wRC+ overall for the last 30 days.
Framber Valdez (20 K-BB%, 59.9 GB%) is tonight's top pitcher
Framer Valdez has a K-BB exactly at 20% with a 59.9 GB%. The exit velocity is at 90.9 mph, but less of a problem with all of the strikeouts. He’s allowed 14 Barrels, but is also near the top of the league in innings pitched. Valdez has recorded seventh inning outs in six of his nine starts. A 4.13 xERA is his only estimator not at least a quarter of a run below his 3.82 ERA. He’s struck out at least seven in four of his last five starts. The Mariners have just a 74 wRC+, 27 K% and 11.7 HR/FB vs LHP this year. The lineup has had some turnover since the start of the season and they have accumulated a few interesting RH bats, but with LHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Valdez in his career, he’s unlikely to be facing any RHBs who are above a 120 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Valdez is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, $100 behind Zach Davies, at exactly $10K, but with a much superior matchup. To recap, a heavy workload with high strikeout upside in a negative run environment: Framber Valdez is your top pitcher on a board without many strong arms on Tuesday night.
Miguel Sano has a 96 mph EV and 25.6% Barrels/BBE
Tarik Skubal struck out a career high eight of 23 Royals last time out and now faces a much tougher Minnesota lineup, but he struck out six of 20 Twins, allowing just a run over six innings a few starts back. Now up to a 25.5 K%, a 28.6 GB% with a 90.1 mph EV have been his bane. It’s led to 9.4% Barrels/BBE and 6.00 ERA, though his estimators are all much lower, including a 4.30 xERA and 4.34 SIERA. The one exception being a 7.52 DRA. The Twins have just a 79 wRC+ vs LHP and 8.5 HR/FB with a 20.9 K% vs LHP this year. A large portion of their right-handed power has been injured this year, but they seem to be back to full strength at this point. As a result, five batters in the projected lineup are above a 120 wRC+ and .210 ISO against LHP since last season. Skubal’s .368 wOBA (.348 xwOBA against RHBs doesn’t help matters either. RH power should be the way to go here and the Twins, in fact, own tonight’s top implied run line (5.58). Nelson Cruz is one of the top destroyers of LHP in the league (218 wRC+, .456 ISO since 2019), but consider Miguel Sano (130 wRC+, .320 ISO) as potentially the better value for $800 less on FanDuel, should he find himself near the top of the lineup tonight. Sano has an obscene 96 mph EV and is barreling 25.6% of his contact this year.
LHBs have a .400 wOBA against Jose Urena since 2019
Jose Urena has struck out just 10 of the 68 batters he’s faced, while walking nine with two HRs. His 6.00 ERA agrees with his 6.03 SIERA and 6.10 xFIP. Urena has just a career 7.8 K-BB%. The Braves slaughter RHP (127 wRC+, 18.7 HR/FB) and have a 133 wRC+ (19.4 HR/FB) at home too. Only one batter in the projected Atlanta lineup is below a 100 wRC+ or .180 ISO against RHP since last season. Only three in the projected lineup are below a 138 wRC+ over the last 30 days. On paper, the Braves should rout Urena, even though he’s been decent against RHP since last season (.295 wOBA, .319 xwOBA). LHBs have absolutely destroyed him over that span though (.400 wOBA, .380 xwOBA). MVP candidate Freddie Freeman costs an even $4K on FanDuel, but needs to be considered one of the slate’s top bats with his 170 wRC+ and .301 ISO against RHP since 2019. He owns a lineup leading 213 wRC+ over the last 30 days and has a 92.4 mph EV this year. Only two other offenses meet or exceed the Braves at 5.33 implied runs tonight.
Below $3K in the leadoff spot with a great matchup
Huascar Ynoa has just four more strikeouts than walks (16, 12) through 86 batters, which has led to a 5.30 ERA that’s within a quarter run of his SIERA and xFIP. He hasn’t thrown more than 61 pitches in any outing, which makes the expectation around four innings or less. Nobody in the starting lineup is below an 86 wRC+ and just two are below a 98 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019. Five are above a 120 wRC+. Only three batters in tonight’s lineup are below a 115 wRC+ overall in the last 30 days. In addition, batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Ynoa. The downside is that they’ll be facing a formidable Atlanta bullpen for the majority of the game. None the less, Corey Dickerson should get two cracks at him and costs less than $3K on FanDuel. He is in the leadoff spot with a 125 wRC+ and .222 ISO against RHP since 2019.
Ian Happ is one of just two Cubs above a 90 mph EV
Jonathan Brubaker has a reasonably average 14 K-BB%. In fact, everything about him hovers around average, which isn’t that bad honestly. A 4.79 ERA matches a 4.82 xERA with all other estimators closer to four due to a .324 BABIP, though he does have a 25.5 LD%. The Cubs have a 26.2 K% and 18.4 HR/FB on the road and a 26.1 K% and 16.9 HR/FB vs RHP. It all works out to a very average offense (98 wRC+ vs RHP). Brubaker has a small, 25 point split with LHBs holding a .328 wOBA and .356 xwOBA against him. Considering Ian Happ’s lineup leading 145 wRC+ and .324 ISO against RHP since last season and just $3.1K cost on FanDuel, he should be one of the top values on the board. Happ is one of only two batters in the lineup for the Cubs above a 90 mph EV this season (92.3 mph, 11.9% Barrels/BBE) with Kyle Schwarber being the other.
Adam Wainwright offers stability on a rough slate
Adam Wainwright has been a workhorse, facing at least 26 batters in six straight starts. He’s also generated a 15.2 K-BB% that’s his best mark since 2013 and more impressively, his 11 SwStr% is the first time he’s ever seen double digits! Sure, the 2.87 ERA is at least a full run below all of his estimators, none of which are below four. However, his .228 BABIP is only 18 points below what the Cardinal defense has allowed as a team. He has a 4.33 SIERA and DRA, which the Cardinals would have signed up for in a minute entering the season. The important thing to remember is the workload tonight because Wainwright is the second most expensive starter on FanDuel, $2K behind deGrom, who did leave his last start early with a hamstring issue. The workload should help Wainwright build up the strikeouts to a respectable total in a favorable matchup tonight. The Royals have just an 87 wRC+ and 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP this year. If we add back in last year’s numbers, LHBs do have a .349 wOBA and .368 xwOBA vs Wainwright since 2019 (RHBs .283/.302). Even then though, the Royals don’t have a single LHB in the projected lineup above a 95 wRC+ or .150 ISO vs RHP over that same span and Sal Perez is the only batter in the lineup from either side above a 106 wRC+ over the last 30 days. While players would certainly be right to embrace the volatility of deGrom tonight, Wainwright offers some better than you might think stability.
Jacob deGrom (30.3 K-BB%, 2.85 SIERA) will test a balky hamstring against the Rays
Jacob deGrom will test his balky hamstring on Monday. A healthy deGrom is the top pitcher on the slate (30 K-BB%). His 72.6 Z-Contact% is nearly six points better than the next best pitcher tonight. A 2.85 SIERA is the only estimator more than a half run removed from deGrom’s 2.09 ERA. Considering he struck out just one of 11 batters in his last start before being removed, this is a tricky situation. With Castillo and Woodruff being removed from the main slate on FanDuel, the next most expensive pitcher is Adam Wainwright at $2K less than deGrom. If he’s healthy, he’s in a high upside spot (Rays 25.5 K% vs RHP) that you don’t want to risk missing out on in an extremely negative run environment. On the flip side, there are few, if any, very positive run environments on a six game slate tonight and the Mets may have extra incentive to push deGrom tonight with their post-season hopes hanging in the balance and just a week left. This is the perfect opportunity to check out projected ownership percentages tonight and let them be your guide, but at least some exposure to deGrom is probably warranted.