DFS Alerts
Shohei Ohtani (129 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP) gets a righty with platoon issues tonight
Jordan Lyles has walked six of the 25 batters he’s faced, generating just three strikeouts with a frightening 3.8 SwStr%. His 2019 had a lot of variance in it, so one start certainly doesn’t tell us a lot. He’s had a large platoon split since last season, holding RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA, but LHBs to .371 and .345 marks. This would appear a great spot for Shohei Ohtani (129 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP career) at just $100 over $3K on FanDuel.
Pittsburgh is a great park for a HR prone lefty with a 30 K% last year
Matthew Boyd has been sitting for over a week, but finds a nice spot for a return in Pittsburgh. Last year, he accumulated a ton of strikeouts (30.2%), but was derailed by the 39 HRs he allowed (18.2 HR/FB). He’s allowed just one through 10 innings (despite a 25.7 GB%), yet still eight runs and has struck out only eight of 47 batters (10.7 SwStr%). The spin on his four seamer and slider are down a bit and he has a .412 BABIP due to a 40% line drive rate so far. Let’s not read too much into 10 innings though. He’ll be facing a Pittsburgh offense that was terrible against LHP last year (76 wRC+, 10.8 HR/FB) and has been awful this season overall (62 wRC+, 16.8 K-BB%). Concern about right-handed power is essentially non-existent in this lineup and park. While several Pittsburgh bats may be worth a look because they are very cheap, this is a spot where Boyd, at $7.9K on FanDuel, can be a top value tonight.
One Of Many Great Matchups
Nailing down a core for offense tonight is not easy, as we have a lot of below average pitchers facing strong offenses. One of my favorites is Boston against Tanner Roark. Rafael Devers has had a slow start to the season, but a matchup against Tanner Roark is ideal for a turnaround. Roark has shown no ability at all to control batted balls to lefties, leading to a .207 ISO and .365 wOBA against him. Since the start of 2019, Devers carries a .273 ISO and .403 wOBA with 43% hard hits and will be batting in a prime spot in the order for one of the slate’s top offenses.
Mis-Pricing Can't Be Ignored
Yusei Kikuchi was great in his last outing, striking out nine batters in six scoreless innings, and the strikeout increase has come with a velocity increase to help make it believable. Even if we assume he pulls back closer to his mediocre 2019 strikeout rate, he’s still a cheap pitcher in a good home matchup against the Rockies. At $5,000 on DK, he’s my first player into cash games and I’ll go overweight regardless of ownership in tournaments.
The Cheap Pitchers Are Site Dependent
Given all the top end bats available on this slate, it might make sense to punt with a pitching choice. My preferred option varies among the sites this evening. Kikuchi is too cheap at $5,000 on DK and $26 on Yahoo. His trends look good so far this year, and while he will never be a massive upside pitcher, he’s too cheap at that salary for a matchup against the Rockies away from Coors Field. Luke Weaver doesn’t have the same good data to start 2020, but this is largely me banking on him reverting to some element of 2019 form and taking advantage of a discounted salary tag on FD.
Other tagged players: Luke Weaver
Left Handed Power
The last time Jeff Samardzija was supposed to face the Dodgers, the Giants said “just kidding” and rolled out a different starter. It looks like Samardzija WILL go this time, so we can run it back with some Dodgers again. We all know that Samardzija has struggled with lefty power for years now, allowing ugly numbers and lots of homers to LHBs. Bellinger, Muncy, and Seager are all elite options, while Pollock provides some value if he is in the starting lineup even though he hits from the right side. Samardzija might not be long for this game against an elite offense.
Stack 'Em Up
One of my favorite GPP plays tonight will be to stack the Toronto/Boston game. Despite the fact that this game has a 10 1/2 run Vegas total, it will likely go a bit under-owned in GPP formats because of the hit or miss nature of these two teams. People will flock to the safety of the Twins and Dodgers. Both those teams are fine stacks, but I love differentiating with the game at Fenway here. The Blue Jays face off against Ryan Weber and an underwhelming Boston pitching staff, and there is power throughout this lineup. Biggio, Bichette, and Guerrero are obviously your high upside plays, but I will look to bank on some lower-owned power as well. Rowdy Tellez is a nice value if he cracks the lineup tonight, while Grichuk is also an intriguing add as part of a stack.
Other tagged players: Rowdy Tellez, Bo Bichette, Randal Grichuk Elite Risk-Reward Option
I’ll highlight Matt Boyd as my favorite GPP pitcher of the night. He has struggled through his first two starts of the year, but a lot of that is attributable to an unlucky .412 opposing BABIP. He did have six strikeouts and no walks in his last start, and now he gets a matchup against one of the worst offenses in the league in a pitcher-friendly park. I’ll gladly be overweight on Boyd in all formats tonight. The strikeout upside will return to 2019 form at some point, and this is a great matchup to bank on his potential at likely lower ownership.
LHBs have a .400+ wOBA & xwOBA vs Touki Toussaint since last season
Touki Toussaint has a live arm, but struggles with control issues (13.1 BB% last year). To illustrate, in two outings this year, he’s struck out 11 of 33 batters (15.6 SwStr%) and walked four. Toussaint has a massive split with LHBs well above a .400 wOBA (.401 xwOBA) in small sample. With this being the case, Cavan Biggio is just $3K on FanDuel and may be one of the better values on a five games slate. He has a 114 wRC+ and .228 ISO vs RHP since being called up and should be able to find his way on base tonight and potentially score a couple of runs.
Nate Pearson had a 50 GB% and 18.7 SwStr% in his debut
Nate Pearson struck out five of 19 Nationals in his major league debut, allowing two hits with two walks and no runs across five innings. Possibly the top pitching prospect in baseball, Pearson may not have even had his full healthy arsenal at his control, as his velocity was not as advertised and he threw almost entirely fastballs and sliders. This may have been by design as the Blue Jays look to build him up to a full workload. If a 50% ground ball rate and 18.7 SwStr% is him at less than 100%, he’s going to be exciting to watch. The question is, will we see even more out of him on Thursday? It’s reasonable to take the chance that we are on a 10 pitcher slate with no clear stud and Pearson costing just $7.5K on FanDuel. We’re not likely to see too many quality starts from this group and the Atlanta offense, while productive (107 wRC+) have a 29.4 K% this year. The top half is still boasts several quality hitters, but there are some outs beyond that.
LHBs had a .345 xwOBA against Brad Keller last season
Brad Keller makes his first start of the year for the Royals tonight. He efficiently generated ground balls and kept the ball in the park for the Royals last year, which led to a 4.19 ERA more than half a run below estimators that weren’t optimistic about a 7.3 K-BB%. Statcast pumps Keller’s xwOBA up 30 points above his actual results to batters from either side of the plate. That give LHBs a .345 xwOBA. The Cubs are able to balance a lineup with hitters who hit RHP well. An expensive Anthony Rizzo (153 wRC+, .246 ISO vs RHP since last season) is one of your top overall bats tonight. He has a 164 wRC+ overall this year.
Tyler Chatwood has a 17.2 SwStr% through two starts
Tyler Chatwood is suddenly a leading NL Cy Young contender after two starts. He’s struck out 19 of the 47 batters he’s faced. While the Pirates and Brewers are two of the worst offenses in the league, a 17.2 SwStr% is impressive against any major league competition. Perhaps as importantly, he’s walked just four (11.4 BB% last year). He’s allowed just a single run in 12.2 innings with a .272 xwOBA. Tonight, he’ll no longer be facing a bottom of the National League offense. He’ll be facing one from the American League. The Royals have an 82 wRC+ and 19.3 K-BB% this season, not far off from their numbers last year. Chatwood, who has kept RHBs on the ground 55.2% of the time on batted balls since last year and has allowed LHBs a 70 point higher wOBA (though just three points by xwOBA) only has to navigate one or two dangerous RH bats at the top of this lineup. Chatwood is the top pitcher on a five game night slate on FanDuel. His $9.6K price point is more than $1.4K above the next most expensive pitcher, who happens to be facing the Astros, but still below $10K.
Lefty Masher (Don't Tell Carty)
Looking at the numbers for Seguera last season, he absolutely crushed left handed pitching. 147 plate appearances he owns a .276 ISO and a .386 wOBA vs LHP go go along with a 10.9% K rate. He draws a matchup against Montgomery who, in a very limited sample size this season, has struggled greatly against righties. Segura may be heavily owned on this slate, but at just a 3.1K price tag over on DK at a rough SS position he is absolutely worth it.
Cheap Bat in a High Total
although Heyward may not be the best bat in the world, he does own a .199 ISO and .355 wOBA vs RHP over the last year. He draws a matchup against Keller who wasn’t a good pitcher last year and hasn’t made a single start this season (dude had the Rona). If Keller ends up pitching his normal amount of pitches this is a great matchup for Heyward, and if he doesn’t then Heyward gets to go against that terrible KC bullpen. Either way, this is a great spot for Heyward that is way too low priced for this slate.
Low Owned Cheap Bat
If you look at Toussaints splits according to PlateIQ then you are probably thinking that this is a terrible idea. Toussaint owns a .281 wOBA and .068 ISO vs righties against 140 plate appearances since the beginning of last season, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Looking at his pitch type, he should really be a splits neutral pitcher and overall he owns a 5.43 xFIP and the vast majority of those numbers are out of the bullpen. Assuming that he is a splits neutral pitcher, this is a fantastic matchup for Hernandez who owned a .256 ISO last season and will likely come in at 1% ownership.