DFS Alerts
Cheap Safety Pitcher
Lets be honest, this is not the best slate in the world for pitching considering LeBlanc is quite possibly the best cheap pitcher option. LeBlanc doesn’t own the best stats in the the world having a 5.12 xFIP and 17.2% k rate since the beginning of last year, but the Marlins are essentially one of the worst batting lineups I’ve ever seen. Looking at PlateIQ, the Marlins projected lineup owns a .308 wOBA, .159 ISO, and a 25.2% k rate vs lefties which should raise LeBlancs low upside. Add in that he has a chance to get to 90+ pitches and you have probably the best cheap option on the slate.
Don't Forget This Rookie
Nate Pearson dazzled in a fun head-to-head battle against Max Scherzer in his MLB debut, but it was not talked about much in DFS circles because the game was not included on a main slate. He pitched five scoreless innings with five strikeouts, and he was allowed to throw 75 pitches. The Blue Jays will be cautious with him, but he might hit the 85-90 range tonight. This slate is not loaded with pitching options, and Pearson is one of the best prospects in baseball. He isn’t priced through the roof, either, making him a fine GPP option despite a tough matchup.
An Elite GPP Stack
My favorite way to play tonight’s slate in GPPs is to stack the White Sox. This offense has gone a bit quiet over the past few games, but this is a spot for them to potentially break out at lower ownership. The narrative has gone a little too far that Josh Lindblom was an elite pitcher in the KBO. We have seen that the quality of arms in the KBO simply isn’t near what it is in MLB, and this is simply another level. The White Sox have power from top to bottom in their lineup, and they should thrive tonight. Robert is a fine option at the top of the lineup, while Moncada, Grandal, Abreu, and Jimenez all offer power potential as well. Stack ‘em up.
Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu Targeting a 20.9% BB Rate
Robbie Ray has an unsightly 20.9% walk rate early in 2020 and has struggled with free passes his entire career. When he isn’t walking people he allows hard hits at a greater than 42% clip. He is facing a Houston offense that is among the most patient and powerful in the league. HOU is a top stack on the slate as they will have plenty of opportunities with runners on base. The top targets include Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa
Sean Manaea offers salary relief in a strong matchup (Rangers 71 wRC+)
Sean Manaea has sustained the one plus mph velocity drop he experienced after returning last year and with an even lower swinging strike rate through two starts (8.1%), he’s allowed seven earned runs through nine innings despite not issuing a single walk and allowing just one HR. Estimators will correctly point out a 20.8 LOB% and .262 xwOBA some 55 points better than actual results. Add in the matchup and price and Manaea may be a mid-range pitcher daily fantasy players are forced to look at tonight. The Texas offense has just a 71 wRC+ this year and really struggled against LHP last year (85 wRC+). The linup will most likely contain some strikeouts in the middle. Manaea has been a little worst vs RHBs since returning last year, but still held all batters below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA. The $6.8K price point on FanDuel makes Manaea a pitcher who probably should be considered for those looking to stack Coors tonight.
Jon Gray has an 11.9 K% and two mph drop in velocity through two starts
Jon Gray gave up some strikeouts for ground balls to help him at Coors last year, he’s taken it to concerning levels so far in 2020 with just an 11.9 K% through two starts and he’s not even getting the ground balls either (42.4%). Add in a two mile per hour velocity drop to 94 mph and more concern begins to drip in. He had an 89.9 mph aEV last year (highest on the board) and a .349 xwOBA in his outings this year, 107 points worse than actual results. Gray has struggled against LHBs since last season (.341 wOBA, .358 xwOBA) and the Giants have several competent ones towards the top of the order tonight. Alex Dickerson (124 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP since last season) is the cheapest one at $3.1K. He has an overall 166 wRC+ so far this year. While Gray is generally a pitcher players don’t like to attack, he hasn’t looked like the same guy through two starts and Coors is likely to make him pay if we see similar tonight.
Daniel Murphy (143 wRC+) sits in the middle of top projected lineup at a reasonable price
Logan Webb has struck out just six of the 38 batters he’s faced, despite a 10.1 SwStr%, while walking five, only allowing two earned runs in 7.2 innings against the Dodgers and Rangers. He had average peripherals in a small cup of coffee last year (4.45 SIERA), but a concerning contact profile (.355 xwOBA). Through two starts this year, he’s at a .482 xwOBA. The Colorado lineup has a stars and scrubs profile with the top half being where all the action is and the bottom half occasionally useful at Coors. Webb has struggled against batters from either side of the plate in his short career with both above a .370 xwOBA. The most interesting batter from a price perspective here may be Daniel Murphy. While he has just an 83 wRC+ vs RHP since signing with the Rockies, he looks to be healthier this year and has a 143 wRC+ overall. Murphy is likely essential to Colorado stacks (6.6 implied runs) at a reasonable cost of $3.5K on FanDuel tonight.
Yu Darvish has picked up right where he left off last year (18.2 SwStr%)
Yu Darvish is your top pitcher on Wednesday night when considering talent and matchup. He’s struck out 12 of the 40 batters he’s faced (Brewers, Pirates) with an exceptional 18.2 SwStr%, walking just one without a HR, building on his second half resurgence in 2019. Not the greatest quality of opposition, but when nearly one in every five pitches results in a swing and miss against any major league offense, that’s awfully impressive. Just as impressive, he’s averaging 96 mph with his fastball. He’s never averaged above 95 mph in a season. The concern here would be that he only faced 20 batters in each outing, but Darvish worked his way up from 73 to 86 pitches and should be ready for up to 100 tonight. The Kansas City offense has just an 87 wRC+ and 19.3 K-BB% so far and while LHBs have a .332 xwOBA vs Darvish since last year (.315 wOBA), the Royals have no left-handed power to speak of. Darvish has continued to smother RHBs (.265 wOBA). Darvish is $100 cheaper than the most expensive pitcher, Mike Clevinger, on FanDuel tonight.
Max Kepler (.292 ISO vs RHP since 2019) just $3.1K on FD
Trevor Williams was better against the Cubs, striking out six of 21 batters, than the Cardinals, three runs in 3.2 innings, but still has an ERA with estimators around five after two starts, a combined 8.1 innings. On the bright side, his .322 xwOBA is league average and 41 points better than actual results so far, while a 12 SwStr% is the result on throwing 34.4% sliders at the expense of fastballs. The Twins have a balanced lineup full of quality hitters. Williams has been average against RHBs, but has been smashed by LHBs (.386 wOBA, .388 xwOBA) since last year. The Twins sit on the upper part of the board at just above five implied runs currently, but many of their bats are very moderately priced on FanDuel with only Nelson Cruz much above $3K. Max Kepler (126 wRC+, .292 ISO vs RHP since last season) costs just $3.1K out of the leadoff spot.
No Slowing Down Now
Nolan Arenado has been a Core Play the past couple days and there’s no reason to stop now. At home, he is one of the most consistently dominant hitters in the league. He has homered in back-to-back games, and with his combination of elite contact, fly balls and hard contact, young Brandon Webb looks overmatched, especially given his lean towards reverse splits early in his career.
Affordable Outfield Power
Most of the high end offenses are priced appropriately, at least on DK tonight. But the Twins lefty OF Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario are standing out as values with plenty of upside. The Twins face the low strikeouts of Trevor Williams and his struggles against lefties. Both Kepler and Rosario have fly ball rates above 44% with hard hits above 40% along with low strikeouts against righties.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario Value In The Middle
If you’re trying to get Coors Field bats in on DraftKings tonight, you’re going to need some savings. The middle of the Washington Nationals order is filled with underrated right-handed batters at a discount against Steven Matz. Matz is essentially an average pitcher to righties, and the trio of Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera all have strikeout rates below 16% with hard hit rates above 43% against lefties. The dual position eligibility of Castro can come in especially handy on DK tonight.
It's Obvious For A Reason
Tonight’s slate features a lot of strong pitching, and not as many ideal spots for offense as we’ve seen recently. The Coors Field game, and the Rockies side in particular, is going to be popular tonight, but it’s for good reason. They are facing Kevin Gausman with his history of reverse splits power. While the lefties are fully in play, I prefer to start with the right-handed power of Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. Because Gausman has some strikeout ability, the mix of contact and power from Arenado puts him at the top of my list.
Hitting The Ball Well
Goodwin has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball to start the season. His $3,300 price tag on DraftKings is very attractive for this slate. Justin Dunn has really struggled with command since being called up last season, and he’s been awful against left-handed hitters. Goodwin has a .333 ISO with a .485 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in 25 PA this season. I don’t expect him to keep this up all season, but I’m willing to take the chance at this price point.
Cheap Power Upside
Matt Shoemaker is very capable of good games, but the Braves are very sneaky in this spot. They tend to hit sinkers really well, and Shoemaker does use his sinker over 30% of the time. Matt Adams is cheap across the industry and has really good numbers against sinkers since the start of 2016. He has a .459 wOBA with a .418 ISO against sinkers in that span. We don’t have a lot of great value options, so I’m hoping Adams can get into one on this slate.