DFS Alerts
Dodgers bats in a nice spot at home vs. Alcantara
Despite a 3.94 ERA, Sandy Alcantara has not been a good pitcher this year and has mostly beenfited from luck and a pitcher-friendly home park. He has a 5.33 xFIP and 5.52 SIERA on the year, with just a 16.3% K rate compared to a 10.5% BB rate. Alcantara does deserve credit for limiting hard contact (32.5% hard contact rate, 86 MPH aEV) as well as keeping the ball on the ground (46.6% GB rate) but he simply walks too many batters and does not get enough Ks to sustain his current ERA. Since 2018 Alcantara has been less effective in road starts, posting a .329 xwOBA, 2.5% K-BB and 5.66 xFIP in road starts compared to a .306 xwOBA, 8% K-BB and 4.99 xFIP in home starts. The Dodgers come into this game with a league-best 117 wRC+ vs. RHP this year and have a number of good options in their lineup. Cody Bellinger (.476 xwOBA vs. RHP), Max Muncy (.393), Justin Turner (.372), Joc Pederson (.359), Alex Verdugo (.358) and Corey Seager (.323) are all great options tonight. Muncy and Bellinger have been the Dodgers’ hottest hitters since the Allstar break with xwOBAs over .400. Pederson, Verdugo and Turner are projected to hit 1-2-3 in the LAD order and are each priced at just $4.2k on Draftkings. AJ Pollock and Corey Seager are projected to hit lower in the order and are priced down a bit at just $3.8k as they’ve both recently returned from the IL. Both are intriguing options at that price. The Dodgers have a 5.64 implied line vs. Alcantara and the Marlins in Dodger Stadium tonight.
Other tagged players: Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Corey Seager
Red Sox have a ridiculous 7.58 implied total vs. Orioles’ Eshelman
Tom Eshelman has seemingly fared better than expected over his 10 2/3 MLB innings thus far, posting a 5.06 ERA / 4.50 xFIP / 4.92 SIERA with a 11.4% K-BB. His Statcast numbers are a bit uglier, charging him with a .367 xwOBA, 11.4% barrel rate and 90.6 MPH aEV. Eshelman has been a pretty mediocre pitcher at each MiLB stop in his career and projects as a roughly 5.50+ ERA guy by most projection systems. After Eshelman is chased from the game, Red Sox hitters will face an Orioles’ bullpen that has a 4th worst 4.57 SIERA on the year. Mookie Betts (.413 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Rafael Devers (.389), JD Martinez (.386), Xander Bogaerts (.364), Brock Holt (.358), Jackie Bradley Jr. (.344), Andrew Benintendi (.320) and Michael Chavis (.311) are all great options tonight. Holt has been their hottest hitter since the All-Star break with a .470 xwOBA, followed by Betts at .403 and Devers at .390. Bradley Jr. is the only batter under $4k on Draftkings at $3.7k; he has a 115 wRC+ since June as he’s rebounded nicely following a very slow start to the year. Betts, Devers and Bogaerts will bat 1-2-3 and will all carry $5k + price tags on Draftkings, but could likely be well worth it given the matchup. J.D. Martinez is a nice value batting 4th at just $4.7k.
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Michael Chavis, Jackie Bradley, Brock Holt, Tom Eshelman Luis Castillo is in a great spot vs. Cardinals tonight
Though the Cardinals did just explode for 12 runs last night, they still have a 4th-worst 87 wRC+ over the past 30 days and they continue to be without Marcell Ozuna, Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina. The Cardinals starting lineup today has no hitters who have an xwOBA greater than .345 vs. RHP on the year, and just two hitters above .330. We get Castillo on the good side of a few of his splits, one of them being that he is pitching at home, where he has just a .265 xwOBA and 28.2% K rate compared to a .322 xwOBA and 23.9% K rate in away games in his career. He’s also been much better versus righties in his career, posting a .270 xwOBA and 27.1% K rate versus them compared to a .317 xwOBA and 25% K rate vs. lefties. The Cardinals lineup will have only four lefties, and those 4 lefties (Edman, Fowler, Wong, Wieters) have combined for just a .309 xwOBA vs. RHP on the year. Also working for Castillo tonight is a pitcher-friendly umpire in Angel Hernandez. The Cardinals do have a 4.43 implied line which seems a bit high considering Castillo’s splits and the state of the St. Louis lineup. Castillo isn’t cheap at $11.2k on DK and $10.5k on Fanduel but he is an good option in all contests, especially considering there aren’t many great arms going on tonight’s slate.
Sneaky Stack
Arizona is my favorite sneaky stack on the slate. They get lefty Gio Gonzalez who is just coming back from the IL. Arizona is one of the better teams in the league against left handed pitching. This season Arizona is 3rd in ISO and 4th in wOBA to left handed pitching. The four guys I will be targeting in my stack are Marte, Escobar, Walker, and Jones.
Other tagged players: Christian Walker, Eduardo Escobar, Adam Jones
Good Spot For The Lefty Bat
Freddie Freeman is one of my favorite bats to spend up on. He gets Anibal Sanchez who struggles against lefties, giving up a 230 ISO, 349 wOBA, and a 10.3% walk rate. Freeman is at home in a good hitters ball park and he has a 282 ISO and a 52% hard hit rate to right handed pitching. I really like the spend up here for Freeman in tournaments.
Favorite Power Bat
Hunter Dozier is one of my favorite bats on the slate. He gets Adam Plutko who just gave up three home runs to the Detroit Tigers in his last outing. Plutko has struggled to righties this year giving up a 354 ISO, 394 wOBA, 49% fly ball rate, and a 45% hard hit rate. Dozier this year against righties has a 286 ISO, 407 wOBA, 44% fly ball rate, and a 40% hard hit rate. I think Dozier has a ton of upside in this matchup for tournaments.
Good Matchup For SP
On this slate there are not a ton of good pitchers in great matchups. Griffin Canning has one of the better matches today against the Seattle Mariners. Seattle over the last month is 7th in strikeouts at 24.8% and 26th in wOBA. Canning has struggled in his last two starts but still has a 25% strikeout rate and 14% swinging strike rate this season. He is in play on all sites, but I really like his 6900 Fanduel price.
Banking on Improvement in a Plus Matchup
Mr. Porcello, we meet again. It seems like this guy is always facing a bad team on days where I am writing this article. I am not a fan of playing him in DFS generally, but on pitching-thin slates where he is facing a bad offense, he always checks in as a respectable value option. His price is right around $7,000 on both FD & DK, and he should be able to get the job done against an Orioles team that ranks 28th in team wOBA and 26th in ISO against RHP for the year. I really despise using him, especially since his recent results are ugly. He has allowed 21 earned runs over his last four starts with a 10.50 ERA in that span and a woeful K/BB ratio. However, we can remove the goofy start in London with that bandbox park, and his trends should stabilize. I can see the case to fade him in GPP formats, but I will reluctantly tag him as the preferred cash game SP #2 option for now.
Pivot Off The Chalk
It’s not a secret that Zach Eflin has major issues with lefties (.238 ISO, 42% FB) so five Pirates bats are definitely on my radar. Adam Frazier should leadoff at $3700 on DraftKings and is good GPP pivot off of a chalky Jason Kipnis at 2-3x less ownership. In fact, I wouldn’t be opposed to a full 5-man of all their lefties at a fairly cheap $20.3k combined, in the top third of win expectation (4.4%) and 2nd in leverage in SlateIQ for large-field GPPs.
Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran
Cheap Stack In Overlooked Spot
All the attention tonight will be out east with the hot & humid hitting conditions, so bats out west should be a complete afterthought. Griffin Canning is coming off two horrible starts with his 47% FB rate / .237 ISO to lefties, and Seattle has a ton in their lineup. Vogelbach, Crawford & Seager are all under $4k on DraftKings and can be core pieces of a dirt cheap stack that in SlateIQ currently projects as the 2nd highest win expectation (5.1%) and 1st in leverage for large field GPPs.
Other tagged players: Daniel Vogelbach, J.P. Crawford Kershaw worth the price vs. Marlins tonight
It’s mostly a tough slate for pitching tonight, but one pitcher in a great spot is Clayton Kershaw, who takes on the Marlins in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Despite still being one of the better pitchers in the game, Kershaw’s numbers have been in a slow and steady decline for a few years now. In 2019 Kershaw has posted a 3 ERA / 3.47 xFIP / 3.79 SIERA with a 23.5% K rate, 4.3% BB rate, 11.9% SwStr and 41.3% hard contact rate; all solid numbers but also career worsts across the board besides the SwStr. Kershaw has also posted a .297 xwOBA, 6.4% barrel rate and 87.4 MPH aEV. Kershaw has lost almost a full MPH on his fastball compared to 2018, but notably has gained about an average of 150 RPM on his slider, and the pitch has a whiff% 5 points higher than it did last year. The Marlins come into this game with a 2nd-worst 77 wRC+ with a 20.8% K rate vs. LHP on the year. They also have just a 91 wRC+ and 25.3% K rate over the past 30 days. The Marlins currently have an implied total of just 2.69, and Kershaw has a good shot at the ‘W’ as the Dodgers are -320 favorites in this game. Kershaw is $11k on Draftkings and $10.8k on Fanduel; given the lack of obvious SP options on the slate, expect Kershaw to be highly owned across all contests Saturday night.
Astros’ Urquidy is a value and upside play vs. Rangers
Jose Urquidy will likely be a popular play tonight as he has a good matchup with the Rangers and will cost $5.5k or less on both major sites. Urquidy has shown a revamped approach in 2019, striking out 30.8% of batters over 33 innings in AA and then striking out 35.2% of batters over 49 innings in AAA while keeping his walk rate under 6% at both stops. In 6 Major League innings so far, Urquidy has posted a 24.2% K rate, 3% BB rate and impressive 12.1% SwStr with a 3.53 SIERA. Since Urquidy has not shown this type of K% at any point in his career before 2019, projection systems aren’t crazy about him, but it’s worth taking a shot on him (especially at these prices) until he proves the new swing-and-miss stuff he’s been showing is a fluke. The Rangers have been exactly league average this year vs. RHP with a 100 wRC+, but they do have a 4th worst 25.5% K rate. They also have just an 86 wRC+ and 29% K rate over the last 30 days. Urquidy threw 81 pitches in his debut and then just 60 vs. the Angels as he was pulled early during a rough 3rd inning; it’s probably reasonable to expect a pitch count around 80-90 tonight vs. the Rangers which would be plenty enough to hit value at his price. Urquidy will also have the benefit of a pitcher friendly umpire in Lance Barrett calling balls and strikes.
Unexciting But Underpriced
Joey Votto is never an exciting player to roster but he remains underpriced across the industry despite being in a strong contextual spot on Saturday night. Votto has been unimpressive offensively this season but gets a favorable on base matchup against a pitcher in Miles Mikolas that doesn’t miss bats (17.4 K%; 9.2 SwStr%). Mikolas owns a pretty large platoon split which is good news for the lefty Votto as Mikolas has allowed a massive 45.1% hard-hit rate to left handed hitters this season. Votto and his weak .139 ISO lacks significant power upside but he should find himself with valuable run producing opportunities at the plate which is all you can ask for at his price tag.
Top Raw Projection
Clayton Kershaw leads Saturday’s main slate with the top raw projection yet I find myself unenthused about rostering the Dodgers southpaw despite a favorable home matchup. Kershaw’s matchup is better from a run prevention stand point than strikeout stand point which gives him unexciting upside for one of the highest priced pitchers on the slate. Kershaw is right around league average in terms of strikeout rate this season (23.5%) while the Marlins own just the 19th highest strikeout rate (22.2%) in the league against left-handed pitching. Kershaw makes for a reasonable cash game option on a slate that is fairly devoid of strong pitching options but I’m not sure I’ll go there myself.
Less Than Stellar
Canning has been less than stellar his last couple of starts but I can’t get over his price tag – especially on FanDuel – and matchup. Canning’s biggest attribute this season has been his ability to miss bats – 25.3 K%; 14 SwStr% – which is extremely valuable for fantasy scoring. The Mariners represent one of the best strikeout matchups of the night with three hitters in their projected lineup with strikeout rates north of 31% against right-handed pitching the last two seasons and just two hitters south of 20%. At the very least, Canning is an elite tournament option on Saturday night and I think a case can be made for playing him in cash games if you’re willing to take on the risk of his fairly low floor.